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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    I like Graham a lot, actually (as my quixotic voting at TwinkieTown shows). Unless he looks broken, I think he makes the team. He and Pelfrey being the last two bullpen arms. (Unless injuries/trades change that).
  2. gunnarthor
    Good article. I think Harrison is a good bet to be a big riser on prospect lists a year from now. I think the hardest thing for prospects is to control the strike zone and Harrison showed huge improvement in that area. Hopefully, he carries that plate discipline up to AA this year.
  3. gunnarthor
    Baseball America has a small little video review of Gordon http://www.baseballamerica.com/videos/scouts-video-view-nick-gordon/
  4. gunnarthor
    Well, if nothing else, this reminded me of how much I loved Puckett.
  5. gunnarthor
    No, he's be eligible. I think he made the top 10 in a few team lists but no top 100 anywhere. He's not really the type of guy to get on a list at this point (although he was ranked before). Sickels ranked him #7 on our list and called him a darkhorse ROY candidate.
  6. gunnarthor
    I really like May and think he ends up leading the Twins in strike outs this year. I think he gets the #5 spot out of ST and makes 32 starts for us. I remember reading a few years ago a Reusse column where he asked someone in the FO if the Twins had any guys in the system that could just be an innings eating anchor - not another Johan, but a guy who constantly takes the ball and throws 200+ innings, year after year. He was told May was going to be that guy.
  7. gunnarthor
    I think the walk rates were one concern but IIRC he was dinged up a little in the second half - a skipped start or two? And the Twins were trying to give starts to Milone and May as well and they had a healthy Nolasco back so it was a bit of a crowded rotation. If he was healthy, I think they would have brought him up but his last start was pretty ugly and they just shut him down. That said, I still think he makes the team out of ST.
  8. gunnarthor
    Do you even read your own website?
  9. gunnarthor
    Before the draft, a lot of draft mock drafts had Burdi going to Detroit in the first round. A few had another team taking him but the consensus was that he was a first round talent. Hoey was a 13th round pick. While he could throw hard, he never excited prospect guys like Burdi has. Obviously, Burdi might not throw a pitch in the majors but I would bet a lot of money that he has a better ML career than Hoey.
  10. gunnarthor
    From a BP chat yesterday - Rick (St Paul): Stephen Gonsavles and Juan De Leon - how much is there with these young pitchers? Jordan Gorosh: Both interesting. Gonzalves is a long, lean 6'5 LHP with the potential for three average pitches or slightly above.
  11. gunnarthor
    Finding numbers like that isn't that hard. Alexander Smit as a 17 year old in rookie ball: 38 ip, 1.18era 40k. At 19, he struck out 140 in 95 innings between rookie and A ball. Gaby Hernandez put up similar numbers - 52ip, 1.03era, 64k at 18 in rookie and A ball. At 19, he dominated low A and was promoted to A+. Neither guy ever made the majors. And I wasn't hunting for them, I just randomly looked at GCL pitching leaders from 2003 and then 2004. Tons of guys have dominated that level. Did you read the link in my post? It's a good explanation for the different level of pitchers. And pitchers can play above their ranking. Radke was a #3 who had multiple ace level seasons. I really like Gonsalves, I'd rank him ahead of Kepler and think he's the Twins breakout guy this year. But his ceiling is a #3 and it's not crazy to like Kepler more. That's all I'm trying to say.
  12. gunnarthor
    http://data.whicdn.com/images/22695004/futurama-fry-meme-generator-not-sure-if-i-m-stupid-or-just-tired-098148_large.jpg
  13. gunnarthor
    I believe his mom was in ballot, not skating. Gonsalves seems to have a #3 ceiling, not a 1 or 2. He might have one plus pitch (and it might not be plus) and is developing other stuff to go with it. That's a #3 starter. And McDaniel, Sickels and Klaw (IIRC) all had Kepler ahead of Gonsalves. (Personally, I had Gonsalves ahead, too).
  14. gunnarthor
    I guess I mostly quibble with the Walker placement. Until/Unless he fixes his plate discipline, he doesn't project to get out of AA. That's a huge problem. I'd take all the guys in the 15-20 ranking above him right now. Hopefully he destroys AA pitching this year, but right now he is too big a question mark. Love Gonsalves, like many people, and I think he'll be the breakout pitcher this season. Hopefully he can get a solid breaking ball. It'll be interesting to see how Kepler progresses this year. He needs at bats to develop and the Twins have sent him to the AFL twice, so it seems they are still high on him. Big year for him.
  15. gunnarthor
    That's good to read and I sure hope you're right.
  16. gunnarthor
    This is a pretty strong 16-20. I guess I'm lukewarm on Duffey (maybe it's his name) but I really like Reed and Minier. Harrison and Turner aren't sexy but both could develop into solid parts. Really deep system.
  17. gunnarthor
    Right, and as some have shown, Parker's methodology is weak and his conclusions aren't really supported by his findings. That's the concern "our side" has. (And you're dismissal of Tobi's May/Meyer doesn't really hold. They were acquired b/c other teams valued the players the Twins picked in the draft. Flipping a second round pick into a 2 WAR pitching season is a good result of a draft).
  18. gunnarthor
    Because baseball is designed to by cyclical. Unless teams can spend their way out of it, the system of player acquisition is specifically designed to punish successful teams. (And, for years, the system to acquire international talent was designed to punish poor teams). Nothing about the Twins current 4 losing years is anything but normal compared to the rest of the AL. As to Parker's work, I don't dispute that they have had some bad drafts. I do think the conclusions and methodology are weak and were designed with the conclusion already made.
  19. gunnarthor
    I want Hicks to start at AAA but it doesn't look like it'll happen. So, let's see what the positives are. For all his warts, Hicks does get on base pretty well. He had a .341 OBP for the season and about a .350 after his return. That's pretty darn good. Ignoring everything else, if you were told your #8 hitter would have a .350 OBP and play adequate defense in CF, you'd take that, right? It amazes me that Hicks has so little pop in his bat and I imagine it has to do with him not feeling right at the plate. Maybe he'll feel better around Molitor and Hunter than he did with Gardy. But I'm pretty sure we're going to find out. I think he and Schafer are the type of guys the Twins, in a rebuild, should take a gamble on. Former top prospects who are still young enough to break out. And Buxton will be up by midseason anyway.
  20. gunnarthor
    Oh, right, I forgot the Giants. My bad.
  21. gunnarthor
    I think you can criticize the Twins for a lot of things but this doesn't seem like one of them. If they were drafting for need, they would have taken Gausman, Appel or Zimmer over Buxton. Draft cheap? Sure. Stay away from certain agents? Sure. Refuse to go over slot? You bet. But not draft for need. It just doesn't work in baseball. By the time a guy is ready, the need for the ML club is probably different.
  22. gunnarthor
    These are also true factual statements that also mislead the reader Since the Pohlads took over the Twins, only the large market Yankees and Red Sox have won more World Series. Over the last 17 years, Astros first round picks have amassed a total of 8 WAR. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the fewest losses in MLB history. At this point, I think we're just talking past each other. I do think that the Twins drafts should be examined but picking arbitrary endpoints - after Garza, before Buxton - confirms the results you are looking for rather than a fair look at draft history. And, as I already pointed out, it lets you whitewash the good 07 and 09 drafts.
  23. gunnarthor
    Again, that makes a statement that isn't true (insert Mark Twain quote here). The 07 draft (Revere) and 09 (Gibson) were good picks. You are over weighing the failures of the 08 and 10 draft to paint too broad a brush. And it overvalues the earlier drafts as players from your arbitrary end point are still developing or amassing value. There are some issues with the drafts but this isn't really telling us much compared to the misinformation it shows.
  24. gunnarthor
    Looking at only a small frame of time can distort how we look at things. Nearly all teams have cyclical results, esp if you are looking at 5 or 6 year periods and/or only a part of the draft process (which is only part of the development system). The problem with saying the Twins first round draft picks were bad from 06-11 is 1) they weren't - both Revere and Gibson were good picks and Hicks still might be and 2) it ignores the entire drafts. Looking at in a more reasonable light would suggest that the 07 and 09 drafts were good and that Johnson's drafts strategy might not be ideal.
  25. gunnarthor
    Under the old system, certain teams absolutely went over the recommended slot a lot. Boston probably did it the most but Detroit got Porcello (a top end talent who dropped) one pick in front of us. By 2010, I think the majority of teams went over slot, while the Twins didn't - Carl Pohlad was very loyal to Selig on that issue, as was the Mets owner. It was a really contentious issue on most message boards for a while. Players like Span and Revere were seen as "safe" picks - both of those picks were panned almost immediately from prospect gurus.
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