gunnarthor

The idea that Ryan left the cupboard bare isn't completely true. When he left, the Twins had a pretty young nucleus of talent in the majors and 4 guys in BA top 100. The idea that the Twins had bad pitching under Ryan is also demonstratively false. In fact, the knock on Ryan used to be that he couldn't draft hitters. From 2000-2007, the Twins were 3rd in all of baseball in pitching WAR with only the Red Sox and Yankees above them. Lastly, we played out this game last year when we constantly updated the pitching FA targets during the season. Correia was among the best. The reality that fans don't want to hear is that rebuilds take time, rebuilding through FA is a bad idea, all teams go through these cycles and Ryan has demonstrated the ability to rebuild and keep those windows open longer than most GMs.

Stewart and Castillo. I think the Twins could/should listen on a few guys. Jose Berrios or Alex Meyer both have question marks but could bring back something in return, if the Twins were so inclined. I'll be honest and say that there's no realistic scenario where I'd be ok with Sano or Buxton being moved. But they do have some depth and if the return is a someone under a few years of control - either due to age or his contract, it's a solid idea. But it would be hard to find a solid trade that fits both teams. For example, arguably the best 10 LFers this year are Brantley, Gordon, Yelich, Marte, Upton, Cruz, Holliday, Cespedes, Gardner and Smith. Gordon, Brantley and Marte aren't going anywhere - they are key guys on playoff teams. Yelich is 22 and shouldn't be movable, even for Miami. Upton, Holliday, Smith and Gardner are all on the wrong side of 30. Cruz is a FA. Cespedes? Maybe Boston would listen.

I gotta admit, that group doesn't look all that exciting. (Minier and maybe Thorpe might be the exceptions). Most of the guys are in low A or lower, are too old for the level they are at or had disappointing seasons in low levels. Last year, I think we had guys like May, Polanco, Santana and Vargas in our 11-20 range. Much better depth last year. And clearly, that's part of the ebb and flow of prospect lists but outside of our top 6, I'm not really excited about anyone in the minors like I was about May or Polanco.

I hadn't really thought about this before yesterday, and I don't really have a view on who should be our next manager (although Souhan's Pro-Molitor article intrigued me). But this is what sorta surprised me as I thought about it - this is a big time plum job. A lot of guys would love to be the next Twins manager. They have an incredible amount of minor league talent coming up, a GM and FO with a reputation for loyalty. Would you rather manage the Twins or Astros right now? The Twins are (as ML teams go) pretty stable. The next manager will have to develop young players but that's true in most rebuilds. Ryan has an incredibly good reputation in baseball circles. I bet guys like Dave Martinez are really hoping to get interviewed for this job.

I want Ozzie or Dougie Baseball.

Wow, I was pretty sure he'd be back. Well, best of luck to him in the future and best of luck to Ryan in replacing him.

Assuming Buxton and Sano are off limits, Hamels would probably require something like two of Meyer/Stewart/Berrios + Polanco and one more prospsect or MLer. And that might not be enough.

I don't think any team would claim Goodrum and stash him on their ML roster. I wouldn't give up a 40 man space for him.

The only opinion that matters is the Pohlads and they have never shown a tendency to let PR affect their position. They trust TR and so I expect he'll stay.

Kind of a rough year for our hitters. Vargas might be something but I think the rest of the top 6 are all bench type, avg starters at best and many probably don't get past AA. Bummer.

I haven't really studied the 2015 draft pool yet but with Aiken and Bickford eligible, we know that at least two good starting pitchers have been added to that depth. And it's nice to hear the draft is strong in HS bats since that's what the Twins like to take.

I think Gardy stays next season but Dougie is brought up as a bench coach or a 3rd base coach or something to give him ML experience. And after next year (when the team flirts with or beats .500) Gardy steps down (like Kelly) and Dougie takes over.

Nice write up. I don't know why but I'm really not worried about Arcia figuring this out. He's still young and has plenty of time to figure it out. And while he's figuring it out, he sure can punish a mistake pitch.

It's cyclical, Mike. Miami's last winning season was in 09, Washington had 6 straight losing seasons (including being the worst team two years in a row), SF had 4 losing seasons before having 4 winnings seasons (and having another losing season last year). Only St Louis seems immune from the typical w/l cycle that the Twins are going through (and they had a few things going for them in that run that the Twins didn't have).

Meyer did miss two months last year with a shoulder injury. I don't think any team would have brought him up in that circumstance. This year it's a more open question but I think the Twins wanted to see him healthy and not worry about getting ML hitters out.

As to Berrios, I'm not sure I'd rank him ahead of Meyer or Stewart, even with his great year. I think those two still have him beat on upside and, in Meyer's case, he'll still probably beat Berrios to the majors. I think we are a little too worried about Meyer. He threw 130 innings after throwing about 100 last year (including the AFL). I think, so long as this shoulder thing isn't more serious which we don't know but early indications are that it's ok, he'll be fine. The big thing for him was to get through the season and for the most part he did. He's got elite stuff but occasionally will get wild. He's a big dude, it'll happen.

Mike, you're jumping the gun. Neither May or Meyer have been moved to the pen and the team hasn't made any plans to do so. May will get every shot to be a valid starter - just like Perkins. If it fails, he can move to the pen and (probably) be an asset - just like Perkins. He's still very young and his four starts have come against four playoff teams. Meyer could end up in the pen due to control or injury but again the Twins haven't moved him in that direction. Lastly, their aren't really "elite" players in FA to buy. I will agree with you that the Twins should be more aggressive in the Cuban and Japanese markets.

What talent would you bring in? What trades would you make? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015-free-agent-power-rankings

I really don't like WAR but I'm going to use fWAR for a quick second to see how the Twins are per position in the AL. The second number is just OPS, non-adjusted. C - 8/15 (WAR) and 5/15 (OPS). Suzuki has been solid but Fryar and Pinto have been useless. 1B - 13/15 and 13/15. This is the one spot I think they Twins can expect a big rebound with a healthy Mauer and less Colabello and Parm. 2B - 5/15 and 3/15. Dozier is a legit second baseman on a playoff team. 3B - 5/15 and 9/15. I was surprised. Weak year for offense hides the fact that Plouffe's been pretty good overall. I still don't trust Plouffe but Sano should be here soon enough. SS - 1/15 and 5/15. And here I was stunned but they are double counting Santana for WAR. Just Escobar and it's closer to 7 out of 15. Still, pretty good year for our short stops. LF - 12/15 and 11/15. CF - 6/15 and 5/15. Fangraphs loved Fuld for WAR and Santana's obviously been good. RF - 14/15 and 9/15. Pulled down by the double counting of Parm and Colabello for WAR but Arcia isn't a good defender yet. DH - 9/15 and 5/15. A bit surprised that OPS liked the Twins DH's so much. So ... Nick has a point. While RF hasn't been great, Arcia should get the vast majority of AB next year, even if his defense is down. Vargas should get 600 PA too. The big questions is regression for guys like Escobar, Santana, Suzuki and Plouffe. The Twins could bring in a guy like Nelson Cruz on a 3 year deal. Or Nick Markakis. But there isn't a lot else out there in the FA bin. Maybe Colby Rasmus accepts a one year deal to fix his stock. But a lot of guys - Hicks, Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Pinto, Escobar just need to play to see what we have while Buxton and Sano are in AAA.

A while back, I remember looking at every prospect that the Twins had ranked in the top 100 since Ryan became GM. 20% busted - guys like Joe Benson, Matt Moses, Adam Johnson, JD Durbin. But most of them became useful everyday players - ie, solid starters - and about 20% became all stars - guys like Guzman, Mauer, Morneau, Cuddy, Hunter. The other interesting thing was that, of the busts, most of them were ranked high by reputation (like Johnson or Moses who were both high picks). Only a few, like Benson, worked their way onto the list by putting up good numbers in the minors but couldn't make the move to the majors. And the last thing to remember is that, while some top prospects won't pan out, some non-prospects will emerge. These guys were never top 100 prospects - Radke, Santana, Mays, Baker, Koskie, Dougie Baseball, AJ Pierzinski, Jacque Jones, Duensing, Dozier. Maybe Danny Santana gets added to that list next year.

Levi Michael has really reemerged as a prospect. Obviously we have SSS in AA but he's not struggling there and his bb/k numbers have been great all year. He could turn into a decent on-base utility type guy for a MI. Nice to see.

But, aside from PED Ortiz' accusation from a decade ago (which didn't actually fit the facts), is there any evidence that the Twins have a "cookie cutter approach"?

That's a good point. IIRC, young Morneau had a bit of the same problem in using the whole field. But by 06, 21 of his 34 home runs went to CF or LF. Good power hitters use the entire field, even if they are usually pull happy. They just have to learn to what to do with certain pitches the pitchers want them to try and pull. Arcia will get there sometime.

Threads like this seem to have two purposes - 1) to report on a simple statement made which may or may not have much impact on reality and 2) to remind people yet again that PED Ortiz didn't hit many home runs in MN. I'm really not sure what the point is. As to #1, the numbers show that Vargas isn't pull happy, despite the statement (and while Arcia doesn't go to left field much, he does have a good number of hits back up the middle so he's not entirely pull happy). Additionally, there isn't a lot of reason to believe that the Twins, for years now, have been an collection of hitters who use the entire field. This (like a lot of other memes on TD) has fueled a false narrative about "The Twins Way."

We are still in SSS territory but I thought Vargas did a pretty good job of using the whole field as a hitter and the numbers point that out. As a righty, Vargas has hit .300 (3 for 10) going to center or right field and is 3 for 4 when pulling it. As a lefty, Vargas 9 for 20 up the middle or opp field and 4 for 7 pulling it. He doesn't seem determined to pull the ball, despite the nice narrative.