IndianaTwin

I think the main thing this year's weak ballot does for Hunter is help keep him on the ballot another year or two. Hunter's a good example of a guy who got a few first-year votes from people willing to give him another year on the ballot, which they often do to get a handle on how other voters view the player. Given that he maxed out at 9.5 percent on his first ballot and has been below that the next four years (when viable candidates always go the opposite direction), there's a great likelihood he would have fallen off if he had more competition than Shin Soo Choo and Howie Kendrick. I'll predict 7 percent this year, followed by less than 5 percent next year, although next year's newcomers may be even weaker and the ballot may have also lost Beltran and Jones. I think Utley is the guy who is most going to benefit by these two weaker classes.

I don't read much into Falvey's comment. It feels a bit like he was saying, "Oh, yeah. Julien's still on the roster. I should probably mention him as well."

It’s a work in progress that will change many times between now and spring, but among the 19 pitchers on the 40 man roster, the current eight relievers appear to be: Sands, Topa, Funderburk and now Orze with more than 40 or so innings in the majors in their career. Adams and Ohl, who got cups of coffee. Prielipp and Raya as two that Falvey has specifically named as potential transitions to the bullpen. To go along with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Festa, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Morris, Rojas and Klein on the starter depth chart in some order. And that fills the 40-man roster, so future acquisitions will start DFAing guys. Let’s start with Coulombe for, say, Kreidler.

Hey, Siri -- go to New York in exchange for Orze.

There’s been an awful lot of ink spilled and letters typed based on one reporter referencing (not even quoting) an anonymous source speculating on what Buxton is thinking, even though that speculation is in direct contrast to what Buxton has explicitly said on multiple occasions.

From MLBTradeRumors: Elias also addressed the club’s catcher situation, saying that Adley Rutschman will be the club’s primary backstop. Rutschman once seemed well establish in that role but his performance has dipped in recent years. He had a .268/.369/.439 batting line through 2023 and was continuing in that fashion through the first half of 2024. However, he appeared to injure his hand when it was struck by a foul ball, which led to a .207/.282/.303 line in the second half of last year. It's not surprising that Basallo's presence would create "calls and texts about catchers," which is all the article in The Athletic says about Rutschman, but pretty much every article I've seen on Rutschman/Basallo has said that the Orioles don't view Basallo as a long-term catcher and that a time-share at the position would tilt in Rutschman's direction.

The best recent stat in my mind is playing 64 out of 66 games after the All-Star Break. If he has that kind of health in 2026, the results will be there.

I think that... Wallner (2025 OPS was .090 under his career average heading into the year), Lewis (2025 OPS was .124 under his career average heading the year) and Lopez (pitched about 85 innings fewer in 2025 than in his prior average season) ...will all regress toward their mean as well. Further, I think their improvement will more than outweigh the decline of: Buxton, whose OPS last year was virtually the same as for the prior four years -- he just played more games. Ryan, whose strong year generally followed the typical career progression (and perhaps a bit more) for a 29 YO and is now turning only 30. SWR, an average pitcher (as defined by OPS+) who will be replaced if he declines significantly. Clemens, a below-average hitter (again, measured by OPS+) who is perhaps (hopefully) the prime position player to be replaced this winter.

And though the Twins declined Justin Topa's option don't they still retain him, since he doesn't have the years of service to become a free agent?

How about a waiver claim on Alex Lange?

Gleyber Torres had a nice little bump as well. And Spencer Torkelson righted himself.

Sounds like Beauregard was able to color outside the lines in the choice to have Outman color inside the lines.

I wasn't as Rocco-averse as many (most) on TD, but sometimes a change is needed. I thought the same thing when I read the quotes, but in a different spot he says Baldelli "had consistently offered him encouragement." I try not to play amateur psychologist, because I'm not in the room, but I can't help but having a sense that Lewis didn't click with the player to his left. He seems like a player who would respond better to Buxton's leadership style than Correa's.

"Carolina in My Mind" (deservedly) gets huge props, but here's the Carolina song I love. Some of the instrumental riffs -- wow. Oh, and if your walk's in the Raleigh suburb of Fuquay-Varina and you see IT Jr., say "Hello." Also, tell him to move back to Indiana. I miss having him around.

Thing is, when they were honest/transparent a couple years ago and said that payroll would decrease, they got excoriated for it. The hints they've given this offseason have not suggested further decrease. If anything they've pointed some level of the other direction. But they've only been hints. If they came out and said that they were planning to increase and then it didn't turn out, they would be excoriated even more severely (if that's possible).

Yes, let's combine this with the mathematical concepts outlined by @Riverbrian above. Correa: $10M Lopez and Buxton: $36.9M Higher-dollar arb guys (Ober, Jeffers, Ryan): $17M per MLBTR Pre-arb guys* -- 13 guys at $820k: $10.6M (Note: This is below RBs suggested 18, but see next line). Low-dollar arb guys (Lewis, Sands, Topa): $6M per MLBTR That's $80.7M among 20 roster spots, leaving a C2, 1B, RP, RP, RP and another hitter. Start with $5M for the 2nd catcher (Caratini?) and $15M for the three relievers (Coulombe, Pressly, Thielbar, Sewald and some of the others that have been mentioned; I'd also be glad to claim Alex Lange off waivers) and you're at $100M. RB mentions Naylor, but jeepers, if they went to $140M they could fish in the Alonso pond for the 1B if they wanted to. Or use some of it to splurge on Luke Weaver/Ryan Helsley/Kyle Finnegan or even Raisel Iglesias, all of whom MLBTR projects at $26M or less over two years and all of whom have closed, People routinely say you can't build a team on hope, but I can't recall an overall collection of pre-arb guys that provide as much hope and opportunity as the current collection. I think there's even enough in that pool to (judiciously) trade perhaps one of the SP extras and one of the OF prospects for a cost-controlled need. Also, Wallner only OPSed .771 against RHPs, which brought his career OPS down to .881 against RHP. Last year he also improved his OPS against LHPs to .790. He turns 28 next month. That screams bounce-back candidate to me. Lewis had 11 HRs and 12 SBs after the All-Star break, which was only 66 team games (and he was healthy enough to play in 62 of them). That's 27/29 pace over 162 team games. From what I gathered, his 3B defense was improved as well. He's still just 26. I'm willing to see hope in both of those guys as well. I think there's a path forward that doesn't require waiting until 2027. *3 SPs from among SWR, Bradley, Abel, Festa, Matthews, et. al; 4 RPs from the converted starters and others; 3 OFs from among Outman, Wallner, ERod, Jenkins, Martin; 3 INF in Lee, Keaschal. -------------------------------------------------- EDIT to add: See https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6806576/2025/11/14/twins-derek-shelton-managing-approach-royce-lewis/. Summary: Title is "Twins' Royce Lewis notices 'something new about the culture' manager Derek Shelton is bringing." Shelton visited Lewis in person, plans to visit Jeffers over Thanksgiving. Key quotes from Lewis: “We started off building a really good relationship. He told me I was important to him and our organization. I told him at points last year I didn’t feel like that. It was really important to me to feel that kind of confidence. “It just feels like there’s something new about the culture he’s trying to build,” Lewis said. “I just look forward to some of his ideas he had for us. Whether it’s implementing them in spring or in season, I loved the mentality he had — the ‘It’s going to take every man’ approach. It was unbelievable.” I'm willing to read hope here.

Legit.

To wit, on your "potentially solid rotation," I actually wonder if you are underselling it. How many teams have two All-Stars (Ryan and Lopez), a strong bounce-back candidate (Ober), four guys who have spent time on top 100 lists (Abel, Matthews, Bradley and SWR), another who has already made the majors (Festa) AND a couple of other guys (Morris, Rojas and probably someone I'm missing)? That has potential to move beyond "solid" to "top notch." I'm also not naive, but I'm with you in seeing a path forward. In addition to the guys you name, they also have a pretty good CF to build around.

At the level they have signed free agents recently, you don't know for sure whether you are getting Michael A. Taylor or Carlos Santana vs. Joey Gallo, but they have had some definite hits in the mid-market range. I like the thought of Victor Caratini to address the catcher issu. My hope is that the subtractions are prospects (likely OFs without the initials WJ), some of whom could certainly bring additions to the bullpen.

How about this, from the same Dan Hayes article... Even though the team’s payroll and general direction remain unclear as Twins are set to add two limited partnerships to their ownership group, Falvey said Tuesday he doesn’t want to further tear apart the club’s roster. While acknowledging he’s actively listening to all teams’ trade concepts to determine the best direction for his club, the Twins president wants to build around a roster featuring Buxton and fellow All-Stars Ryan and López if he can. “I remain personally committed to figuring out what are the ways we can add to this group to make it better,” Falvey said from the general managers meetings. “That is my goal. It was my stated goal before and remains my stated goal until I’m told otherwise. … My focus for now is figuring out ways we can add to the group.”

With only 13 position players on the 26-man and two of them being catchers, it's really hard for a team to roster a Rule 5 position player for the whole year. The decision on a guy like Rosario is essentially choosing between a 100 percent chance of keeping Rosario and a 50 percent chance of losing (someone like) McCusker when he's dropped vs. a 100 percent chance of keeping McCusker and a 10 percent chance of losing Rosario in the Rule 5. (Percentages made up to illustrate the point.)

But let’s call him “LaTroy’” rather than “Hawk.” I still have PTSD from watching White Sox games with Ken Harrelson.

I had a boss like this once.

Whatever one thinks about Falvey's decisions, I've always gotten the sense that one of his strengths is communication with players (which is completely different than communication with the public). I'm guessing Falvey found ways to at least hear from Buxton (and perhaps Lopez or other key players as well) along the way. Players talk -- I wouldn't be at all surprised if as part of the process, Falvey had a conversation with Buxton along the way that said, "Hey Byron, here's some guys we've talked to. Any vibes you've picked up from other players that we should be aware of?" It's not veto power by any stretch, but it's part of not setting a manager up for failure by not getting buy-in from key team leaders.

I’d encourage listening to the press conference. I don’t know if @Sherry Cerny was there, but this captures some of the things I heard in the recording. The quote about conversations and follow-up conversations was a comment that stood out to me as well.