IndianaTwin

I’m a big Pineda fan. Thought it was a great deal when they signed him to two years coming back from TJS and another two years last off-season. In my mind, he was a 170-inning pitcher in 2019, given that he missed four starts at year end. Very small sample this year, but he was definitely effective. So if 2020 and 2021 were at $10M each, would he go for another $10M in 2022, with a $10M option for 2023, with perhaps a $2M buyout? That guarantees him an additional $12M for the extra year.

I like what you’ve got. It’s not much of a difference, but with the desire to have a smidge more wiggle room in future years, I might make it a bit flatter on the four years — something like $9M, $12M, $14M, $17M on the four years. I’d like to add that fifth year with the terms you have, but I’d be reluctant to include that if I’m Berrios. If he does well enough to have the Twins pick it up, he’s probably allowing himself to be underpaid at $20M in 2025, particularly when you consider that the current QO is already $18.9M. If we had a similar CBA, for example, I’m guessing the QO number would be well past that by 2025. And if the Twins pick it up, he has to go to free agency as a 31-year-old rather than a 30-year-old, which would cost him down the road. Depends on how much he wants to bank on himself, but that seems like a big potential downside for him for only an extra guaranteed $2M. If I’m him, I insist on a bigger payout (maybe $22M or more) or a bigger buyout.

With typically needing to go as much as 10 deep, I’d be into Mike Foltynewicz on a Rich Hill-type contract. (I’d also be into Rich Hill on a Rich Hill-type contract. Has there been any speculation on what’s up with him?)

I don’t think he has a chance, and I wouldn’t vote for him, though he can gladly start on my team as an excellent player. That said, I sent a note to a friend earlier this evening on the topic. Aside from Andruw Jones, an intriguing comparison is Omar Vizquel. In JAWS, Hunter is several points ahead of Vizquel. Vizquel is being carried by his defensive reputation and his 11 Gold Gloves, but he was a well-below average hitter, with an OPS+ of 82. By contrast, Hunter won nine Gold Gloves at a demanding defensive position with an OPS+ of 110. Vizquel played for a long time and was on good-hitting teams that rolled through the lineup, so he accumulated more than 2800 hits, but he only had two seasons when he was above league average. With that, I’m not sure how one can vote for Vizquel and not give serious consideration to Hunter. And Vizquel has tracked at 37.0, 42.8, and 52.6 percent in his first three years, so he’s getting support. Personally, I think that says more about folks messing up on Vizquel than it does on people overlooking Hunter. By that same JAWS score, Vizquel is WAY below the shortstops that are represented. The three guys immediately below him are Rico Petrocelli, Andrelton Simmons, and Rafael Furcal. By contrast, Vizquel is well behind non-HOFers like Bert Campernaris, Jim Fregosi, and Nomar Garciaparra. Oh, and you referenced Kenny Lofton. He got jobbed in entering the ballot in 2013, along with first-year guys Biggio, Piazza, Schilling, Clemens and Bonds. Also on the ballot that year were Morris, Bagwell, Raines, Smith, Martinez, Trammell, and Walker, all of whom have since been voted in. Plus McGriff, Murphy, McGwine, Mattingly, Sosa, Palmeiro. With all those guys and voters limited to 10 picks, there just wasn’t room for Lofton. He’s a HOFer in my book, and it will be interesting to see if he jumps in quickly when he gets a shot by the Veteran’s Committee.

And yes, as the parent of two boys growing up in the late ’90s, I was looking for Pablo Sanchez as well. I’m thinking he’s the answer to our current utility infielder need in letting Marwin go. But seriously, as the parent of a baseball-fanatic son with a physical limitation, it was a wonderful gift to have a game character who used a wheelchair. Though my son used a walker as a kid and now uses a cane as a young adult, rather than a wheelchair, Kenny Kawaguchi’s inclusion made him feel like there was a place for kids like him.

I don’t play video games. I just read the article to ensure that the “Well played, Mauer,” was included.

With that hire, I think their chances have gone under.

It would be a slap in the face to Rochester, which has had AAA for such a long time, but if St. Paul is added as a AAA team, some other city has to lose a team. In addition to the continuity factor, Rochester as the AA team would be a fit geographically as an addition to the Eastern League if another team gets dropped. The Yankees have named that they are moving out of Trenton, for example. You're right, there's not a good fit geographically, however, given that AA is the Eastern, Southern, and Texas Leagues. Then again, maybe names don't matter -- I'm looking at you, Memphis of the Pacific Coast League. Has any site made a map or list of these rumors and what deals have been committed to for 2021?

MLBTR actually pegs Kluber with the Twins at 1/$12MM.

If you're looking for nearby and are discounting Des Moines and Omaha because of their long histories with the Cubs and Royals, the best choice after St. Paul may actually be Grand Rapids, Mich. It's the 51st largest metro area in the country, with Lansing (103rd) and Kalamazoo (184th) and popular vacation spots nearby, and several 90-minute Delta flights to MSP per day. It also would be more convenient to the IL, with teams in Indianapolis, Toledo, and Columbus. St. Paul isn't that great of a fit with AAA. Aside from Des Moines and Omaha, they're all long flights to the rest of the PCL or the IL.

If Pensacola ends up with Miami, has there been any speculation where the Twins would go? Bummer — I was looking forward to going to Pensacola. Still can, but the draw would be less.

Concur, I think, but slightly nuanced. If it's the occasional day off, I think it's better to give the Cave-type backup the spot in center and keep the regular in the two corner spots. If it's a longer stint, move Kepler to CF if he's better there than the new regular (i.e. Kirilloff or Rooker) is.

I think you’ve captured it well, Doc. For most of us mortals, it’s hard for us to think of anything but recouping our losses when we hit a tough spot. And there will probably be certain teams who justifiably take that approach. It’s defensible. But you’re right — the opportunity is there for smart teams to zig and spend money (or maintain budget) when others zag and tighten up. And perhaps because I’m the eternal optimist, I see the Pohlads as owners who may well be willing to take that approach. This summer, for example, much was made of their charitable contributions in response to the George Floyd incident. They seemed to take their role as a corporate citizen seriously. FDR pushed baseball to continue playing during WW2 because the country needed. I could see the Pohlads taking the same approach on behalf of the MSP community, particularly when they consider that the return generated by a championship could turn it into a wise investment. I know this isn’t a “should we keep Eddie” discussion, but I think the approach you’re suggesting may give a rationale for keeping him. Yes, Kirilloff and Rooker are options, but neither has much AAA time, and keeping Eddie makes it easier to save the service time on them. Additionally, few teams ever get through the season without an outfielder getting hurt. So start the season with Rosario/Buxton/Kepler as the outfield and plan to call up whichever one is playing better when one of the starters get hurt. And if they don’t get hurt and one or the other (or both) is kicking down the door, that’s a great problem to have.

I’m with you on your second paragraph. Eliminating batting gloves is never going to happen, obviously, but in watching the playoffs this year, I was just struck by how many guys were going all Nomar Garciaparra on EVERY SINGLE PITCH.

After watching games this year, my suggestion for speeding up the pace of play is quite simple: Eliminate batting gloves. If there’s nothing to adjust besides your cup, things will move along much more quickly.

When commenting on Hrbek’s retirement, Peter Gammons summed it up well. “If he had stayed in better shape, he might have been a Hall of Famer,” Gammons said. “But we wouldn’t have loved him as much.”

Sorry, not able to quote properly today, but this is from the original post: "Is this “penalty” the baseball equivalent to the boogeyman? Hitters actually had a lower OPS in their third plate appearance against a starting pitcher this year than the second time seeing them (a .765 OPS the second time, .754 the third)." I assume that you're talking about all pitchers who pitched a second or third time through. One factor here is that the only people who got to face a batter the third time through are those that have been effective that day. It's a SSS, but my hunch is that the guys who contributed to the .754 the third time through probably were better than .765 on their second time through.

Pong rocks!

A nitpick. They didn't all pitch the same amount, so if you weighted the FIPs by innings pitched, the number drops a bit to 3.46. Another reliever I'd certainly include in the list is... Tyler Clippard. His 2.65 this year was better than his career average, but his FIP over the past 11 years is 3.65, right in the range you're talking about. In an age of reliever volatility, he now has a streak of 12 straight years of at least 60 innings (or on pace for that in 2020). And his salary this year was $2.75M. Bring him back at that level. Heck, give him a couple years at that amount.

With no at bats at the AAA level in his career, two words explain why Kirilloff hasn’t seen his last days in a minor league uniform: Service Time.

I’d be cool with an Odo reunion. I’d also ask the Dodgers for the original Word file with Maeda’s contract, do a search-and-replace to swap out “Maeda” for “Hill,” and send it to Rich for signing. That’s $3.125M as the base and generous incentives for starts and innings.

Clearly Renabanena’s immediate supervisor and the company HR director are on Twins Daily.

Took me a moment, but that's one of the funniest auto-corrects I've seen for a while. Healthy hair, skin, and fingernails goes a long way in producing offense, right?

In terms of his winding down at the end of the year, it’s worth noting that he played 53 of 60 games. That includes 40 of the first 41. He missed four consecutive games at the end of the season. That’s considerably less rest than he’d gotten the last couple years. I’m guessing that’s a function of both the urgency of a shorter season and the injuries/underproduction of others making Rocco reluctant to give a day off. In a “normal” season, I think he’d have gotten a few more strategic days off and remained fresher.

A. I heard the Twins front office changed its number because they kept getting pestering calls from random people. I think we just found the source... :-) B. Concur. I think they'll keep both catchers. No team gets through the season on two. Even with the two, I'd consider adding a veteran, Avila/Castro type. I assume both Garver and Jeffers have options and one could start in Rochester, knowing they'll get called up. Alternatively, guys like Avila/Castro/Erik Kratz sign minor league contracts with a general commitment from the team to get the first callup when a catcher goes down.