IndianaTwin

Going into the final weekend of the season, the eight-team AL field is nearly set, though no team is locked into its seed. Here's what I came up with as combinations for the seeds. There's a few spots where I didn't have time (yet) to look back at the final 20 games when used as tiebreaker. And with 2^28 permutations in play, I can't promise I got them all right. But they're pretty close. TAMPA BAY (37-20): • Ends with 37 wins: o No. 1 seed if Minnesota loses once, Chicago loses once, and Oakland loses once (or maybe twice, depending on the next tiebreaker. o No. 2 seed if Minnesota wins out OR Chicago wins out OR Oakland wins out (or maybe loses once, depending on the next tiebreaker. o No. 3 seed if Minnesota OR Chicago wins out AND Oakland wins out (or maybe loses once, depending on the next tiebreaker. • Ends with 38 wins: o No. 1 seed unless Oakland wins out and has the better record in last 20 divisional games. o No. 2 seed if Oakland wins out and has the better record in last 20 divisional games. • Ends with 39 or 40 wins: o No. 1 seed. MINNESOTA (35-22): • Ends with 35 wins: o No. 2 seed if Chicago loses out, Cleveland loses one, and Oakland loses out. o No. 3 seed if Chicago loses out, Cleveland loses one, and Oakland wins at least one. o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins at least one and Cleveland loses at least one. o No. 7 seed if Chicago wins at least one and Cleveland wins out. • Ends with 36 wins: o No. 2 seed if Chicago wins one or less and Oakland loses at least three. o No. 3 seed if Chicago wins one or less and Oakland wins at least two. o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins two. • Ends with 37 wins: o No. 2 seed if Chicago wins two or less and Oakland wins two or less. o No. 3 seed if Chicago wins two or less and Oakland wins three or more. o No. 4 seed if Chicago wins out. • Ends with 38 wins: o No. 1 seed if Tampa Bay loses out and Oakland loses at least one. o No. 2 seed if Tampa Bay wins at least one and Oakland loses at least one. o No. 3 seed if Tampa Bay wins at least one and Oakland wins out. OAKLAND (34-22; four games to play): • Ends with 34 wins: o No. 3 seed • Ends with 35 wins: o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses out, Chicago loses twice or three times (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games), and Cleveland loses at least one. o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses out, Chicago wins one or two (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games), OR Cleveland wins out • Ends with 36 wins: o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses at least two, Chicago loses once or twice (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games), and Cleveland loses at least one). o No. 3 seed if Minnesota wins at least two or Chicago wins out • Ends with 37 wins: o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses at least once. o No. 3 seed if Minnesota wins out • Ends with 38 wins: o No. 1 seed if Tampa Bay loses at least three. o No. 2 seed if Tampa Bay wins at least two. CHICAGO (34-23) • Ends with 34 wins: o No. 4 seed if Cleveland loses at least two and New York loses at least one. o No. 5 seed if Cleveland loses at least two and New York wins out. • Ends with 35 wins: o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses out, Cleveland loses at least one, and Oakland loses at least three. o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses out, Cleveland loses at least one, and Oakland wins at least two. o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins at least one, Cleveland loses at least one, and New York loses at least one. o No. 5 seed if Minnesota wins at least one, Cleveland loses at least one, and New York wins out. o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins at least one and Cleveland wins out. • Ends with 36 wins: o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses twice, and Oakland loses at least one or two (depending on who has the best record in last 20 divisional games). o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses twice, and Oakland wins at least three. o No. 4 seed if Minnesota wins at least two and Cleveland loses at least one. o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins one and Cleveland wins out. • Ends with 37 wins: o No. 2 seed if Minnesota loses once and Oakland loses at least two. o No. 3 seed if Minnesota loses once and Oakland wins at least three. NEW YORK (32-25) • Ends with 32 wins: o No. 5 seed if Toronto loses at least one. o No. 8 seed if Toronto wins out. • Ends with 33 wins: o No. 5 seed. • Ends with 34 wins: o No. 5 seed. • Ends with 35 wins: o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses out and Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on who has the best record in the last 20 divisional games. o No. 5 seed if Chicago wins at least one or Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on which has the better record in the last 20 divisional games. HOUSTON (29-28) • Ends with 29 wins: o No. 6 seed if Los Angeles loses at least one. o Eliminated if Los Angeles wins out. • Ends with 30-32 wins: o No. 6 seed. CLEVELAND (33-24) • Ends with 33 wins: o No. 7 unless Toronto wins out and if Toronto has the best record in the last 20 divisional game. o No. 8 if Toronto wins and has the best record in the last 20 divisional games. • Ends with 34 wins: o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses out and New York loses at least one (if Cleveland has the best record in the last 20 divisional games) or two. o No. 7 seed if Chicago wins at least one. • Ends with 35 wins: o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses at least two and New York loses at least one (or if New York wins out, but Cleveland has the better record in the final 20 games). o No. 5 seed if Chicago loses at least two and New York loses at least one (or if New York wins out, but New York has the better record in the final 20 games). • Ends with 36 wins: o No. 2 seed if Oakland loses at least three, Minnesota loses out, and Chicago loses at least two. o No. 3 seed if Oakland wins at least two, Minnesota loses out, and Chicago loses at least two. o No. 4 seed if Chicago loses out and Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on who has the best record in the last 20 divisional games. o No. 5 seed if Chicago wins at least one or Cleveland wins out or loses one, depending on which has the better record in the last 20 divisional games. Also if Minnesota, Chicago and Cleveland all finish with 36 wins. o No. 7 seed if Minnesota wins at least one and Chicago wins out. TORONTO (30-27) • Ends with 30-32 wins: o No. 8 seed. • Ends with 33 wins: o No. 5 seed if New York loses at least twice. o No. 8 seed if New York wins at least once. LOS ANGELES (26-31) • Ends with 26-28 wins: o Eliminated • Ends with 29 wins: o No. 6 seed if Houston loses out. o Eliminated if Houston wins at least one.

And yep on Toronto as well. I'd compared them to NYY and to Houston, but not pieced the two together. And it's interesting that none of the nine teams still mathematically alive are playing each other. Five have a National League opponent.

Right on Oakland. I guess it's essentially four either way, the difference being that Oakland can get all four by themselves, whereas Minnesota can only supply three of their four themselves.

After Thursday's games, here's how things seem to stand: 1. Tampa Bay: 37-20. Could finish 1, 2, 3. 2. Minnesota: 35-22. Could finish 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 3. Oakland: Could finish 1, 2, 3. 4. Chicago: Could finish 2, 3, 4, 5, 7. 5. New York: Could finish 4, 5, 7, 8. 6. Houston: Could finish 6 or not make playoffs. 7. Cleveland: Could finish 2, 3, 4, 5, 7. 8. Toronto: Could finish 5, 6, 8. x. Los Angeles: Could finish 6 or not make playoffs.

The Twins are a half game ahead of Oakland, so one could also say that their magic number over Oakland is 3.

Welcome, Joey. I grew up in Iowa, so it was easy to get WHO, but that was my lifeline as a kid. "Coast to coast, border to border, and then some."

Twins lose tiebreaker to Chicago, but win tiebreaker over Cleveland and win a three-way tiebreaker. So by my math, the magic number to finish ahead of Cleveland is 1 and to finish ahead of Chicago is 3.

And now things are again right with the world and I can go back to rooting against both Cleveland and Chicago.

Don't feel like thawing out any chicken, but I'll take it.

Cleveland 5, Chicago 4, fine'

Gene Mauch's team could get some company.

The three-batter rule is hurting Chicago. Rodon doesn't have it, but they have to leave him in for one more.

Followed by a double off the wall by Ramirez and it's 5-4 Baseball Team.

Bases-loaded single just out of the reach of the Chicago second baseman to cut the score to 4-3.

As "stringer bell," you're probably familiar with whether or not Gus Bell has any more descendants.

It really pains me to root for the Cleveland Baseball Team. Of course, the alternative is to root for the other team in Chicago. Normally I root for rain when these two teams play, but that's not really an option this time.

Bichette with the RBI double for Toronto.

They moved him to first late in spring training.

It’s cliche, but it depends on his ability to adjust. His stuff probably isn’t going to ever be blow-them-away stuff, but there are a lot of players who have been in that boat and been very successful. Not suggesting he’s Tom Glavine, for example, but Glavine had an ERA+ of 80 in his first 40-plus starts. Then he adjusted. Dobnak has certainly been better through 40 starts than Glavine. Then again, there have been plenty of guys who were as good as Dobnak through 40 starts and didn’t adjust. So which will he be? I certainly give him the chance to go in Glavine’s direction.

It varies. For example, in the Wild Card Round, you only need three starters on Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday. I agree on Maeda and Pineda for the first two games. Because Game 3 (if necessary) is a decider, I’d lean toward Hill’s experience over Berrios, but would keep Berrios on the roster. Because of contrasting styles, he could be a good stack option following Hill, for example. In a three-game scenario, Odo and Dobnak may not make the roster. With the new rules, you probably don’t need the long guy for the possible 14-inning game. If they win, they then have several days off to move the bubble, where they play five in a row. That doesn’t start until the following Monday, so they can go back to the top of the rotation with Maeda on five days of rest. In that case, I go Maeda-Pineda-Hill-Berrios-Odo. Rather than planning for Odo/Dobnak In Game 5, I’d hope that the first four starters go long enough to leave a reasonably rested bullpen. If you can get four innings from Odo, I’d go to the bullpen guys before Dobnak. Then if they win, they’re back to the traditional 2-3-2 format for the final two rounds, so you only need four starters. At this point, I’d assume you’re back to Maeda-Pineda-Berrios-Hill, though one might argue that Berrios is better suited to the bullpen as a contrast in style to either Hill or Odo.

About three jokes from Chief that reached up to the level of mediocre.

And “Rich Folkers is throwing up in the bullpen.” Along with, “He slides into second with a stand-up double.”

FTFY

Especially not the 1840s...

That’s 3.5 games up on the Cleveland Baseball Team with 12 and 13 to go. I’d like to think that sticks the fork in them.