harmony55

Last offseason at least one Seattle fan thought Jorge Polanco might not represent an upgrade at second base:

Mitch Haniger is not a free agent. Seattle woud give away Haniger, who has one year and $15.5 million remaining on his contract: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18487/mitch-haniger The Mariners probably don't want to commit a roster slot to Haniger behind their outfield of Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley, with Mitch Garver as designated hitter.

Thank you for the thoughtful response. FWIW Spotrac assigns 27-year-old Cal Raleigh a market value of $193,904,176 over eight years for an AAV of $24.2 million: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26119/cal-raleigh Spotrac ranks Ryan Jeffers third in market value among catchers: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26082/ryan-jeffers

In its valuations, Baseball Trade Values considers relevant factors that some fans overlook. But it's not perfect. We all bring our own biases when we question BTV valuations. Baseball Trade Values recently assigned Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh a surplus value of $19.8 million. Raleigh plays a premium position. Over the past three seasons Raleigh topped all catchers with 13.9 fWAR, valued at $111.4 million. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2024&pos=c $111.4 million https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cal-raleigh/21534/stats?position=C#value Raleigh, who turns 28 years old next month, has three seasons of team control with a projected 2025 salary of $5.6 million. The past three years Raleigh's home run production has increased from 27 to 30 to 34 playing his home games in a pitchers park. The relevance of RBI has been questioned because of the stat's dependence on factors outside the hitter's control. Still, Raleigh drove in 100 runs this year on a club that for much of the season struggled to score runs. Perhaps the BTV valuation overlooked Raleigh's defensive skills that have been credited for the success of the Seattle pitching staff. Raleigh, who led MLB in innings caught, may receive a value boost from his recent Gold Glove nomination. The Mariners would be more likely to trade a starting pitcher than trade Raleigh.

Are there any credible follow-up studies of Target Field's economic impact, positive or negative? Sometimes public funding results in a return on the government's investment ... sometimes not

Would anyone trade Eduoard Julien to Seattle for his one-time SEC rival, righthander Emerson Hancock, who is a month younger than Julien? https://georgiadogs.com/sports/baseball/stats/2019/auburn/boxscore/16885 Each has lost luster after spending much of 2024 in the minors.

Cal Raleigh couldn't let fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers outdistance him. The switch-hitter's bomb was Raleigh's fifth this year from the right side, exceeding last year's total when 26 of his 30 homers came from the left side.

January's discussion of Seattle's need for Jorge Polanco in light of a Mariner roster that already included Josh Rojas and Luis Urias: https://twinsdaily.com/forums/topic/65825-mariners-still-looking-for-additional-infielder/page/2/#comment-1355123 Polanco may represent an upgrade in the end but to date Polanco has posted an OPS+ of 90, Rojas an OPS+ of 200 and Urias an OPS+ 114. Polanco has posted an fWAR of 0.1 in 34 games, Rojas an fWAR of 1.3 in 26 games and Urias an fWAR of 0.3 in 20 games. We should witness a great four-game series between two clubs poised for the postseason.

Exactly. FWIW only twice in his career has Jorge Polanco posted a March/April wRC+ above his current 87: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jorge-polanco/13152/splits?season=0&position=2B/SS&split=2.1#Advanced

It's early. Drawing ill-advised conclusions from the early small samples, Seattle probably doesn't need Jorge Polanco given the current wRC+ of 168 and 137 from Mariner 2B/3B Josh Rojas and Luis Urias. The Twins probably need a starting pitcher more than the Mariners need an infielder.

During the offseason some fans thought 24-year-old Seattle righthander Emerson Hancock would be an insufficient return in a trade of Jorge Polanco. With righthander Bryan Woo on the injured list, Hancock has stepped into the Mariner rotation with an ERA of 5.06 in five starts, including a start of eight earned runs over 3.1 innings. In his last three outings Hancock has posted three quality starts with an ERA of 2.00, 12 strikeouts and only three walks over 18 innings. Hancock, the No. 6 pick in the 2020 draft, would have come with six years of team control in a trade last offseason.

Jorge Polanco should rebound from the .208 BABIP that has contributed to his disappointing start to date. The Mariners have not missed Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani even though injuries have kept Matt Brash, Gregory Santos and Bryan Woo off the mound this season. An optimal trade benefits each team. The Polanco trade may accomplish that.

FWIW Dallas Keuchel is off the board after reportedly signing a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners: https://twitter.com/DKramer_/status/1775311169148031235?s=20 Keuchel could provide depth behind righthander Emerson Hancock, the Bryan Woo replacement who looked solid Monday in his first start.

At my fantasy auction I won a bidding war for Bailey Ober, who went for twice his projected value.😒

Seattle is already developing the next Justin Topa, a 33-year-old journeyman the Mariners traded high on. Righthander Tyson Miller may top the candidates from the organization's deep bullpen depth. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners

Another speculative scenario: Seattle certainly would have preferred to trade only Justin Topa, Anthony DeSclafani, Darren Bowen and cash for Jorge Polanco. The Twins likely held out for the inclusion of Gabriel Gonzalez and the Mariners eventually caved.

The Mariners may have aimed high for Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler but, unwilling to surrender Bryce Miller, settled for Polanco alone. The consummated trade could help both teams.

Thank you, Paul Danesi, for the analysis. An MLB team is no different than most closely held corporations that do not "open the books for full transparency." However, one could argue that governments should require financial transparency of any sports team (or any private entity for that matter) that seeks public assistance. Fans typically follow sports teams as a hobby; the owner of a sports team (or any private enterprise) customarily runs a business for profit. If a consumer does not like a product the consumer can instead buy a better product. Major League Baseball, with its antitrust exemption, curtails the marketplace by limiting the number of its franchises. The antitrust exemption may or may not place a higher obligation for public disclosure of finances. The topic yields no easy answers. https://ecampus.oregonstate.edu/soc/ecatalog/ecoursedetail.htm?termcode=all&coursenumber=450&subject=FIN

The Seattle Mariners signed international right handers Pablo Lopez in July 2012 and Freddy Peralta in April 2013. Lopez, has posted 9.7 fWAR in 476.2 innings over the past three seasons while Peralta, who is three months younger than Lopez, has posted 9.0 fWAR in 388 innings over the past three seasons. Health has given Lopez a slight edge.

WAR is not a great measure for relievers, but last year the Seattle Mariners ranked sixth in bullpen fWAR with 5.7 in 548 innings while the Twins ranked 21st with 3.2 in 556.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Nevertheless the FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Twins bullpen second in 2024 WAR with 4.7 in 560 innings while projecting the Mariner bullpen 12th with 3.2 in 547 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP Blame it on Justin Topa.😁

Lindsey Hill, the first public accuser, made allegations outside of court before Trevor Bauer filed a civil suit and Hill responded with a countersuit. Bauer countersued a different woman who initiated a civil suit: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37853562/trevor-bauer-faces-another-sexual-assault-allegation-countersues-fraud https://apnews.com/article/trevor-bauer-sexual-assault-new-allegation-d9dba30c182e13dbf27f57db312c9fd1

To be precise: Trevor Bauer sued his accuser and his accuser filed a countersuit against Bauer.

At FanGraphs, the Twins with a modest 85 wins are the only AL Central team projected to post a winning record: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings With 12 postseason slots only a few teams should be "out of it" as the trade deadline approaches. FanGraphs gives the Twins slightly better than even odds (52.6%) to win the American League Central: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

In that respect the Minnesota bullpen resembles Seattle's well-regarded bullpen which has only three relievers earning more than the league minimum, topped by closer Andres Munoz at only $2.19 million (followed by swingmen Austin Voth and Trent Thornton at $1.25 million and $1.2 million, respectively). BTW swingman Anthony DeSclafani should cost the Twins $4 million this year. WAR is not a great measure for relievers, but last year the Mariners ranked sixth in bullpen fWAR with 5.7 in 548 innings while the Twins ranked 21st with 3.2 in 556.1 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&stats=rel&sortcol=20&sortdir=default&pagenum=1 Nevertheless the FanGraphs Depth Charts project the Twins bullpen second in 2024 WAR with 4.7 in 560 innings while projecting the Mariner bullpen 12th with 3.2 in 547 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP Blame it on Justin Topa.😁

Trevor Bauer was never "proven innocent." As happens in many cases, prosecutors reviewed evidence and made a decision that they lacked evidence to prove a criminal case beyond a reasonable doubt. Bauer brought the matter to court when he filed a civil suit against his accuser. Bauer was entitled to his day in court where he could present evidence subject to cross-examination and conflicting evidence. Instead Bauer dismissed his suit and took the matter to the court of public opinion where his evidence would not be subject to cross-examination and conflicting evidence. Did Bauer offer the public only the evidence that supported his version of events? Did Bauer withhold from the public evidence that supported his accuser's version of events? We'll probably never know. A prospective employer may acknowledge that an applicant has specific skills to help the enterprise but that personality factors may make that prospective employee a poor fit in the company millieu. Before the reports that resulted in Trevor Bauer's MLB suspension (that was upheld by an independent arbitor), the 2019 book The MVP Machine profiled Bauer, among others baseball players: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/ben-lindbergh/the-mvp-machine/9781541698956/?lens=basic-books On the basis of that profile alone an MLB team might be reluctant to bring the polarizing Bauer on board. Every MLB team has reason to avoid Trevor Bauer but no team should be condemned for giving Bauer another chance.