DocBauer

I won't speak for Seth directly, but as someone who has been following the Twins milb teams/prospects since my teens, the early-mid 80's had a group of Gasser, Bumgarner, Nivens, Banks, Sontag, Newman and Pittman that was highly regarded and expected to give the Twins real hope. Alas, only Banks ever did much of anything, and it wasn't a lot. Newman I belive had some success as a coach. By no means does that mean this group won't be outstanding, just offering up a list that at one time was probably comparable.

Assuming there is anything close to a full season of games played...and hopefully a full 162...the Twins need GS and IP. Adding to the rotation is basically a necessity. And one way or another, it's going to happen. The problem is, we aren't really sure what the plan is the FO has in mind. Other than some rumors about kicking the tires on Gray, and despite this FO always playing things close to the vest, they clearly were out on the FA SP market this year. Now, they could absolutely blow us away and surprise us and sign Rodon, even to a 1yr, and then sign or trade for someone else help fill in the front of the rotation behind him. I'm not expecting that, but I've been surprised by many of their signings in the past, including Donaldson. So you can never say never with our FO. But the issue/problem as I see it, why would they trade for a guy or two, and give up prospects they've worked so hard to draft and trade for, for a couple short term deals of 1 or 2yrs? They could have spent $, kept all their prospects, and still not exceeded 3 or 4yr deals for a number of the FA they passed on. Again, the FO could totally surprise us. They have before. But from the outside looking in it sure appears they are looking to promote/audition/roll through a number of young arms in 2022 to build for the future, while looking for BP pieces that have options and relying on an offense that could/should be potent to "compete". (Debate all you want to about being competitive in this scenario, that's not the point I'm addressing directly at the moment). Cody, I appreciate your work and speculation here, but Oddo is the only guy that makes sense here, IMO. He makes sense because he's familiar to the Twins, and vice versa, has had a solid career that is "proven", and could probably be obtained on the cheap from a Houston team where he doesn't seem to "fit". But the others? I just don't see it. Why not keep your prospects and re-sign Pineda? He's an almost lock for 25-26 GS and 130IP. Tyler Anderson and Kikuchi are LH options that only cost a little $, no prospects, and each pitched over 100 innings in 2021. Kikuchi in particular intrigues me because it seems he hasn't performed yet to what his stuff says should play. How about a 1+1 for a "young-ish" LH that might take another step with a different organization and a different staff? If we're trying to build something, and we aren't going to make major FA signings or major trades because we have so many young arms with potential we need to start seeing and working with, then just re-sign Pineda and sign Kikuchi to go along with Bundy, Ober, Ryan, Dobnak, Winder, Strotman, Balazovic and Sands and add a couple interesting or proven arms for the pen and run with a collection of #3 arms and tons of depth and a deep pen and quality lineup and try to compete in 2022...which COULD happen...and build for 2023. Your finances are FINE in 2023 and beyond to add and make moves. But just don't give up young talent to add to the staff where just $ can add as good or better while you re-tooling said staff.

One thing I've thought about the past few days is the length of the lockout and how it might affect ST. Agreed the prospects are going to get their shot, deservedly so and NEEDED at this point. But any sort of abbreviated ST might increase the need and "value" of an OK veteran arm while the young arms ramp up in St Paul due to lack of spring opportunity. As you stated, a lot of unknowns and we're stuck with pure conjecture at this point.

A good list. I also would slot Cruz a couple slots higher but can't quibble much with the rankings here. I think this list could have easily gone another couple of spots to include the Maeda and Odorizzi trades. Frankly, I think an arguement could be made that acquiring Alcala, Celestino and Duran were very good moves as well. I know we are just begining to see the potential with those 3, but Alcala is starting to flash. Celestino is looking like a potentially outstanding 4th OF with possible starting potential. And even IF Duran ends up in the BP eventually...and by no means am I saying he will or should at this point...the potential to be dominate is there. I see this/these as examples where the FO hasn't always been right in what they did or didn't do, but a reminder that focusing on merely the negatives is a disappointing exercise without looking at all the positive moves in comparison.

Full confession, I had completely forgotten about him when I read about his signing today. After reading this, it all came back to me. And yes, when he left it looked like the Twins may have made a mistake. But baseball is a beautiful mistress who can be cruel at times and it now looks like the Twins were right at the time. (This happens all across baseball, not just in regard to the Twins). So when someone signs elsewhere, or is rule 5 selected, we have to see how things transpire down the road vs 1yr before we make any sort of "mistake" decision. I see him as nothing more than a depth signing at this point. Just like the ML team, the Saints will have injuries and promotions and will need arms. I just have to believe he's a pen option at this point where his stuff might play up in shorter stints.

Can't thank you enough Seth for these tremendous lists! Just great work and great thought and detail. (Really like the split of pitchers and position players). I was briefly surprised as to Canterino at #1, but as I thought about it, you're right. His stuff and ceiling is as good or better than anyone here. I do think I would have Duran higher based on similar stuff and ceiling. Can't "penalize" him for limited IP but then dismiss Canterino for the same. But I absolutely agree you could really arrange the top 8-10 in just about any order and you wouldn't be wrong. I think the mound is going to be interesting and tantalizing over the next couple of years. Here's hoping for good health in 2022 and a sense of "normalcy" so all these guys can develop and move forward.

Again, I think we're pretty much on the same page. I reference Rodon because there may be an opportunity for a 1yr and the money is there, assuming he checks out physically. He'd be a nice front to the rotation if they really want to contend in 2022. But I also don't see it happening. Then again, I didn't see the Donaldson signing coming either. I'm mixed on the addition of a 2nd veteran SP. On the one hand, we have, potentially, 5 or 6 arms to audition and get their feet wet and even run them between St Paul and the Twins as needed. But there is also the IP factor to consider. I just wouldn't be shocked at all if they brought in a pair of arms for depth and innings. And while I'm not crazy about any remaining FA, other than Pineda, I think it would make more sense to look at someone like Kikuchi or Anderson rather than trade for someone with only a year or two of control. I think that functions as a too expensive of a bandaid, player capital wise, when you already passed on the first round of FA that would have only cost $. In addition to all the kids to work with, one name I hadn't thought about was Jharel Cotton. There was an interesting article on Fangraphs a few days ago in which the writer extolled his potential as a mid to back end SP option now that he's healthy and seemingly "back". I have only seen him as a BP piece going forward. And I think that's how the Twins see him. Still, it got me wondering. All good stuff and fodder for speculation whenever this damned lockout is over. And that can't happen soon enough!

I tend to agree with you here. I'm almost more curious about SS as I am the rotation. I'm really starting to like the idea of a "cheap" trade with the Cardinals for DeLong as I don't think they want to pay him to be a backup. And we can easily afford him. And I agree that I think Pineda is an easy sign and both parties are in agreement on something. My question to you is do you really think they are done there? I'm not so sure. I DON'T think they are looking at a major trade that will cost them someone from the ML roster of real importance...Arraez may be the exception...or moving TOP prospects that they have worked so hard to acquire. As ticked off as we are right now for missed opportunity to do SOMETHING, we also have to remember how and when Odorizzi and Maeda were added. Can they yet again pull a rabbit out of their cap??? Dunno. I see a couple of possibilities to add, in addition to Pineda, without costing players/prospects. 1] For various reasons, Rodon is still out there. Do the Twins do a 1yr for around $20M-ish, maybe with a 2nd year option? Or is everyone going to jump at the chance post lockout to bring him in? 2] Tyler Anderson is still out there as an experienced, mediocre, but OK SP who can eat some IP and actually pitched 167 innings last year. Kikuchi has some quality stuff that hasn't fully manifested in to production yet. Do you see a move for one of these on a short term deal? I do. Nothing given up player or prospect wise and room to still promote and audition the young arms. But still lends some authenticity to the rotation. Thoughts?

I will attempt to answer your Berrios question the best I can. The FO is not opposed to extensions, if it makes sense to them. Witness early extensions to Kepler, Polanco and Sano. Those extensions are very "Cleveland-like", as well as others, when you guarantee money to a young player. They extended Buxton to a long term deal. They stepped up to sign Donaldson. They offered Wheeler an initial deal that was shot down immediately because he wanted to stay on the east coast. A couple years ago they were in on Darvish and were at the top of his list, until the Cubs upped their offer with an extra guaranteed year. There remains debate as to Berrios's decision to test the market vs signing an extension. That's all the more confusing as he upped with Toronto before hitting the market. IMO, it was NOT the annual salary. Right or wrong, the FO simply doesn't believe in signing a pitcher beyond 4-5yrs. I suppose if they had a true ACE SP on the team, or someone they felt was on the verge of becoming one, they might change their philosophy. They DID attempt to sign Berrios to an extension each of the previous couple years but couldn't come to terms, or, Berrios wasn't interested enough. And that's no knock on Jose! Sometimes it just is what it is. The FO decided it was simply prudent to move him, get a great return, and move to the next chapter. I don't endorse or rally negative for their decision in my explanation. That's a whole different topic, lol. But again, their philosophy is to not overpay for extended SP contracts. History will tell you they are correct. But history will also indicate wins and losses and the value of early returns vs losses later on and can your organization absorb those losses. Again, a different debate.

Reverse order: 3] Alcala has the stuff, has shown the ability, and he finished strong. The strong finish is key to me. It shows development and confidence. I think he's arrived or is about to. 2] Jeffers has power and has hit in college, in the system, and hit in 2020 SSS. He was drafted, much like Garver, as a bat first catcher with power. And his defense has improved tremendously. (Same as Garver). 2021 did him no favors, nor did Rocco. He was a ML sophomore and we know adjustments have to be made in your 2nd year. And that takes time and adjustments. Being stuck hitting ONLY against RH pitching didn't help his confidence I'm sure. Just letting he and Garver share the spot, with Garver getting some DH time, and just allowing for a natural split of playing time vs boxing anyone in, plus Jeffers just growing, should give the Twins a great duo and Jeffers should continue to grow. 1] Going to admit I'm confused on Dobnak. He is smart, determined, a bulldog, and has some decent stuff. He FLEW through the system and contributed in 2019 and was really good through most of 2020. His slider was changed in ST 2021 so he could be a bit more wicked and K more batters, potentially. ST doesn't always prove anything. But instead of being in the rotation, he was sent to the BP, which he hasn't done before. He stunk, got set down, came back up, then got hurt and was done. But you can't ignore his early returns. Healthy, finding the right approach and grips, etc...and this is also on Johnson...he could be a big "sleeper" as a quality SP in 2022 as a back end SP. He's gone from a solid and surprising SP option to a "nothing" due to a bad and injured 2021? Hmmm....OK. I'm not expecting anything great from him, but shouldn't we allow him to be healthy again and get on the mound and be allowed to prove himself? I think he hasthe smarts and the stuff to be a ML SP if he can control and contain that elusive slider grip. Probably only a back end SP, but we'll see. I just don't want to to dismiss him this early.

Being transparent, I'm surprised by this portion of the list due to the simple fact 4 of these guys have either not pitched at all, or only a few innings. But then I re-read and reflect on their draft day notes and projections and then hear the whispers from instructs and the off-season Seth has access to and the light sort of clicks on. I don't dislike any of these guys at all. In fact I've been very encouraged by all of them since being selected. I just didn't initially expect to see them so high. I think Big 10 baseball has largely caught up with the rest of the country and tournament trips and CWS appearances seem to support this. Very excited to see what Hajjar will do. Being from Nebraska I'm already a Povich supporter and am very encouraged about reported velocity gains. The #1 thing I read after the draft was questions about his FB, and not his make-up or control. Raya and Petty just need to pitch....and some time. They both seem to have good stuff and a lot of confidence considering their age Duran....just be healthy man.

Just going to toss in a few of my own "what's best for baseball" ideas: 1] While I'd like to see changes in milb salaries, I simply don't see this being a priority for either side. I wish it was! The only way I see this being an issue is if the players push for it and to the best of my knowledge, they never have. It is, unfortunately, a moot point as far as the next CBA. 2] DH in both leagues. Same rules across the board for both leagues. Nobody is affected negatively and a few older players continue to be viable without having to be locked in to a position. Might even provide a little more excitement. 3] A 27 or 28 man roster. The game has changed. I'm tired of seeing short benches due to 12 and 14 man staffs. I thought the 28 man roster in 2020 worked really well. And like that season, you can cap the number of pitchers. 4] I'd like a more balanced schedule. It doesn't have to be fully balanced, but I'd rather break up some of the monotony of playing within your own division quite so much. (Plus the schedule makers seem to CRAM your divisional opponents in to short windows far too often). 5] I'd like to see greater, and more even revenue sharing amongst all teams for a greater competitive balance opportunity. BUT, I also want to see a payroll floor for all teams to avoid tanking. From a fan perspective, and for the good of the game, this a step for better competition across the board which is better for fans, players, and interest in the game as a whole. (If you make bad choices, that's on you as an organization). From an owners perspective, I don't feel the BIG MARKET teams would be against greater revenue sharing if they knew the $ they were throwing in to the "kitty" was actually being spent and not pocketed by an ownership group. A floor forces them to spend what they are given. I oppose a hard cap, not because I don't want one, or reject the very healthy structure of the NFL, but unlike the NFL, contracts in MLB are guaranteed. Further, the BIG MARKET owners simply won't agree to a hard cap, nor will the players. But I fully endorse keeping a soft cap in place with penalties to provide some sort of "control" to maintain a more level playing field. I think ideas of $250M are bogus and somewhere around $200-215M should be in place. I believe that's approximately where it has been recently. Said floor and ceiling could have a sliding scale from year to year based on total revenues and be adjusted based on growth as well as recession. 6] I have no problem with yearly player salaries being bumped higher with automatic increases per year. I'd rather see that that bickering from either side. If there was some way this could get rid of arbitration entirely I'm even more in favor of guaranteed raises. 7] I can fully appreciate players wanting to see FA before they turn 31-32yo plus. But I am NOT in favor of players reaching FA "too soon" and potentially walking away from their teams. The problem is how do you define "too soon" and what is fair? If age is used, then someone who becomes a regular at 22yo and has to wait until 29-30yo, that's not fair to the players. On the other hand, if a player is drafted older, has injuries, etc, and doesn't reach the ML until 26yo, he could be gone in just 3-4 seasons. I think manipulation of service time should be addressed and gotten rid of. (Not sure I have an answer how to do so). But FA status should continue to be based on VIABLE service time and not just age. I feel a bump in average yearly salary that is "locked in" can satisfy both sides fairly...possibly avoiding arbitration as a mentioned...and service time can still be the answer. This still allows players to be released if necessary, (one extreme), or signed to a long term deal (the other side of things). The game needs to grow. And there are a lot of smaller details to make the game better, faster, etc, but aren't key points to a new CBA. Better competitive balance and opportunity across the entire spectrum of MLB ARE KEYS to the health and growth of the sport.

I'm actually pretty excited about this group but echo previous thoughts that the similarly ranked pitchers are probably a nose ahead of the hitters in this range. My $.02 FWIW: Javier: 2022 is going to be his most important year thus far. He's healthy and the glove reportedly plays, minus hiccups on routine plays that should iron out with repetition. I was encouraged by streaks of decent hitting last year and the power. At age 23 and with time missed, he's still the equivalent of a college drafted going in to his 2nd yr. Time to start putting the bat on the ball. I don't think I would have placed him quite this high, but again, the tools are there and he's not old in any way. Encarnacion-Strand: He had a great debut. AL he has done his entire college career is hit and provide power and runs. He did the same thing as a rookie. I was a little disappointed how little 3B he played. Scouting reports I've read were that he has the arm for 3B. Don't recall ever hearing he didn't have the hands for the position. What I've heard is a possible range issue. But a big arm can compensate with good positioning and fielding everything you can get to. Gaetti once had hands of stone and Koskie was a large man, with decent athleticism, who was too stiff. Time took care of those things in a big way. I'd keep him at 3B for as long as possible. Cavaco: Absolutely he was player #2 hurt by the missed 2020. By all reports he has the tools to be at least a decent SS with time and development. But a poor half season debut, then a lost season, and then injuries in his first full season did him no favors. Still, the talent is there and his 2021 start brings optimism. The fact that he was pushed to Ft Myers seems to speak of the organization's belief in his potential. I'm wondering if he performs even OK early in 2022 if they might move him to Cedar Rapids fairly early, or mid-season at the latest. Sure seems like if you can hit even decently in the FSL, you might take a jump in Iowa. Urbina: Tremendous tools. All the potential in the world and seems to have an eye. He and Rodriguez, IMO, are very much the same player. Both very young, very talented, huge upside, just need time. I wouldn't be surprised if he spent his whole season at Ft Myers. But like Cavaco, maybe a promotion if he shows something? Wallner: I appreciate the comparisons to Rooker, and they are similar, but Wallner is reportedly already a better defensive OF with a great arm. That gives him a leg up prospect and future-wise. (Not a shot at Rooker who still has a shot to be a solid player/contributor). Personally, I don't view Sabato in the conversation either as he's a 1B/DH period but seems to have been blessed with a great eye and bat control. Wallner can offer real success with quality defense while being a 3 outcome kind of batter. But his value skyrockets if he can find better zone control and can hit at least. 250-ish, if not better, with a .300+ plus OB.

Duran might be better as a RP. That really stinks on one hand when you look at his potential and what he COULD be as a SP. But between 2020 as a lost year and his injury in 2021, I still maintain you "baby" him for 2022. You just don't give up on arm that talented no matter how much you want him to be ready NOW. He might need a full a full year, or a year and a half to be healthy and stretch his arm out, before he's ready. But I think it's worth the time and caution at this point. Let's give Varland a little more time before we move him to the pen as well. He's just getting started as a bona-fide pitching prospect. Same with Sands. He's got some rough edges to work on, no pun intended, but he's been progressing on a natural path with solid production. I think he's at least a half year away, but I'd give him some time and leeway to develop. I think the guys we should be focusing on are Vallimont and Gore. Vallimont has the "stuff" to be a quality ML SP but just may never have enough control or a 3rd pitch to do so. But the potential is there to dominate. And he's "closer" than some to help the pen, just based on experience and IP. Sure would like to see more time in the rotation and a little better control to surprise...and maybe he will...but right now I just keep seeing quality RP. If nobody selects Gore in the eventual ML rule 5, or keeps him if they do, I believe he's part of the Twins BP 2nd half of 2022. He's old enough, and only 1 full year in his conversion, I could see teams passing. I could also see a team taking a stash option on him. I sure hope he's part of the organization a couple months from now.

So to quote an infamous line: "you're saying there is a chance". Lol Thank you terry for the numbers. I knew someone would have them. BA against and slugging higher could cause some concern, of course, but higher, or lower, in all other measures indicates a general turnaround in his season. And again, I think we all understand the numbers of a RP are volatile. BA against can be a bit of hard luck for a pitcher as well as the opposite for a hitter who comes in to some bad luck. The slugging percentage would concern me more in the long run. But when you factor in lower OB and Whip and higher K rates, etc, etc, I think we saw a more "normal" Duffey the last half of 2021. I expect the "normal" Duffey to be in play for 2022 as he's experienced, healthy, and only 31yo. There's a lot of tread left on the tires here, IMO.

Bingo! I don't have any numbers in front of me...sure someone can find them easily...but I did hear/read about a significant difference in his numbers between the halves of the season. Also, while I don't want to be accused of wearing rose-colored glasses, it's not uncommon for any reliever to suddenly have a poor year or half a year. It's the volatility of the position, and I think we all understand that. All but the truly elite usually have some hiccups here and there. I would be more worried if he started the season strong and finished poorly. I'm going with the "he figured it out the second half and is healthy coming in to 2022 and I think he should be fine" argument. (doesn't mean I'm not crossing fingers for he and Rogers both, however).

Camargo is the one ranking I'd argue with. It's been my understanding his defense is probably better than Isola or Morales, and he does have some decent power, but seems behind them in hit ability/potential. I appreciate the importance of the catching position and all its many facets, but I think a young catcher(s) with a good bat(s) and OK defense that can be improved/learned on would rank higher IMO that the good defense and questionable bat. I was disappointed Soularie missed as much time as he did. I'm really interested to see what he can dobgiven a little time. Athletically it seems he has the whole package. Agree that Severino could be a really fast riser in 2022. Would really be something if we were talking about him this time next year similar to how we have been talking about Miranda. I found it really interesting how so many hitters fared this past season with the flip of Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers from high and low A ball. Apparently, if you can hit, or at least hold your own at Ft Myers, you're in for a large growth/production uptick once you hit Iowa.

I would remove Lewis from this list only because I don't think he's been overlooked at all. I think there a NUMBER of arms that could be added to this list from Gipson-Long to Gross to Laweryson and a few others that could make a Winder/Varland kind of move in 2022 that make us do a double take and head turn. But I have 3 names to add to this list. 1] Sands. We talk so much about so many arms for various reasons, but Sands always seems to be the "oh yeah, him" part of the conversation. He has very quietly established himself as a legitimate SP option that seems to be "forgotten" about. 2] Cavaco. He's a small lightening rod in the organization. Personally, I'd say he's a wild card. Kid seems to have a great attitude and just LOVES the game. He's an unrefined 5 tool talent who was selected as a fast riser when the Twins picked him. He seems to have everything you want athletically from range to arm to speed and power. But he's young, missed 2020, looked improved in 2021 early before injury, and then finished poorly. Healthy, a mental, emotional and physical re-set for 2022, does he start to grab hold of his talent and potential and start to become the kind of player he could be? 3] Julian. Could you ask for a better 1st professional debut? I know there are some questions about how good defensively he could be, and where he should settle. But isn't that true for a lot of young position players with ONE year under their belt? And maybe he's only solid at various spots. I'm fine with that. A great athlete with the ability to play a couple of spots with good/great offensive promise, we'll find a spot for him. NOTE: I am high on Steer. If he can actually be OK at SS on a fill-in basis, I think he LEAPS in regard to future ML projections for the Twins. And I have real hope Howard figures things out his 2nd year.

Tom. I think your idea is a bit far-fetched only because ANY trade is hard to speculate on, much less one including 3 teams in the mix. That being said, I think your proposal very logical, well thought out, practical, and I would JUMP on a second to make this happen. Payroll wise it fits and still allows wiggle room for a bullpen arm and a flier. Maybe even a 4th OF option so we don't have to rush Celestino. But I'm not sure there would still be room for 6th SP option such as Pineda. I think, even if this trade happened, the Twins might want to risk ML "depth" vs having a potential "hole" to be filled be Dobnak and anyone else vs another signing. Prospect wise, giving up Rodriguez could be a big regret down the road. But the reality is you don't get something without giving up something. And Rodriguez is probably 3yrs away. Buxton is signed long term. Celestino could be an outstanding 4th OF SOON, and could force his way in to a starting role. Martin could also easily be our next LF with the ability to cover CF as well as having the ability to still play some infield. I think Larnach is going to be fine with some time/adjustments. And while his defense is not on the level of Kepler, he's OK and has the arm for RF. Long way of saying, giving up such a talented young player doesn't destroy the system in any way. Wallner for DeJong is fine. But as solid/good as he is, he's already been replaced as a starter. And as you point out, he's too expensive as a reserve. Might he be grabbed for a little less? What I really like about this is legitimacy at the front of the rotation without compromising the future. We're talking a pair of 2yr deals, a 1yr deal with an option for Bundy, and prospects. Beyond that, you ALWAYS need 7-10 SP over the course of a full season. With this lineup, a solid to good pen, your projection actually gives the Twins a chance to compete/win without blocking young arms from appearing/auditioning and helps mitigate the lost 2020 and limited IP in 2021. I see no downside other than the loss of one potentially excellent OF still a few years away.

Just impossible for me to comment on Grace or Legumina due to such a SSS. I fully appreciate any prospect list is based on pure stuff and potential and trying to extrapolate that for the future. But missing such time at this point, I just don't know if I'd rank them this high. But I also don't know that I wouldn't rank them this high either. Just really hope for a bigger and more clear picture after the 2022 season is complete. Very glad Vallimont was protected and I'm still very hopeful. While he needed to work on control previously, I don't recall it ever being so bad prior to 2021. I'm thinking the lost season just messed with his mechanics. The potential/stuff is obviously there. I could absolutely see a move to the pen in his future if the control and secondary stuff just doesn't come around.

This! I actually thought he should have been at AA to begin the year, but I sorta understand the Twins being overly cautious after being rode hard at Rice and then missing 2020. What really stinks, at this moment in time, future to be determined, is despite some great arms and great potential on hand, the 2 best arms in the entire system are Duran and Canterino. And that is ZERO slight to the potential of Winder, Balazovic and others. All they need is just better health and a little more time to put it all together. Canterino has a weird delivery that has concerned scouts since day one. Maybe they are right. But he's stated his delivery is repeatable and comfortable for him. His stuff is crazy good while he's still developing his 3rd and 4th offerings. Sorry, but age is not a factor when you are this talented and missed a full year. Said it before and will say it again, "baby" Duran and Canterino if you have to. Build each up for 2023. Doesn't mean they can't make an appearance in 2022 or contribute, but PLEASE work with and develop what might be the 2 best arms in the whole system.

I think I have to agree with you here with one caveat and one sub-point. The caveat being we don't know what will happen post lockout. The FO could surprise us all with a smart trade and anything from a Rodon signing, (maybe just a 1yr), to a Pineda signing to at least provide some legitimacy to the rotation. Maybe even that ONE quality arm for the pen that I'm hoping so much for. Such moves could buy time for their "plan" to bear fruit throughout 2022 and moving in to 2023. Not impossible at all a couple smart moves, maybe a little luck, could have the Twins in contention for 90 wins if a few things break right. My sub-point is the trust Jim has in Falvey and Levine. I think we could argue at length about how much Jim loves baseball, and the Twins specifically, vs the love Carl and is wife loved baseball and the Twins. But thus far, he's seemingly given carte blanche when it comes to revamping the system from the top on down. And compared to what transpired for most of the previous decade before Falvey and Levine came on board, the Twins have had real success, despite the lousy and vastly disappointing 2021 season. I feel that ownership and FO being on the same page is a path to success. Conversely, we've seen teams in all sports where ownership has ridiculous blind faith and they follow down a rabbit hole of frustration and disappointment. I don't think that is the case here, at least not at this point in time. I agree that building some sort of pipeline for success, especially pitching, is a key for the FO and the future of the Twins. Ad the FO is tied to that. Fully agree. But I do think the rope has to be elongated with what has transpired the last couple of seasons. And no, I don't have an exact timetable in mind. But previous success on the field, changes in infrastructure, and a LARGE group of potential arms, and positional players, seemingly on the cusp to add to what in place leads me to believe there is no "hot seat" until 2023. In the early 80's, the Twins had a handful of seemingly quality arms that were very well regarded from Bumgarner to Gasser to Nivens to Newman, Banks and Pittman and Sontag. And I've watched and followed the system in earnest since those days. This collection of arms and potential is the best I've ever seen in the system. And beyond the first, obvious 10 or so, there are some BP arms and lower level arms that have potential in the next year or so. And besides pitching, there is also a group of very interesting positional players seemingly close to making a mark as starters or quality depth pieces. Greatness comes. Solid comes. Washouts come. But when you have depth, you usually find enough to make a difference. I'm frustrated as hell about 2022 but trying to be optimistic about promotions of talent and hoping like crazy there are still a couple of moves to be made to keep the Twins relevant and in contention. And I'm trying to trust in the FO to make a couple great moves to make that happen without going crazy and doing something silly like trading away potential pieces for a short term gain. And I agree the pipeline is tied to their success or failure. But I still don't see any sort of "hot seat" until 2023.

I think the grades are fair and no need to quibble about a slight adjustment here or there. Pretty right on. Was very encouraged how Celestino responded at AAA and have pretty high hopes for him going forward as a versatile regular who will probably be an excellent 4th OF with potential for more. Larnach was also rushed a bit and I'm not worried. Through college he always hit and has shown that ability and a decent eye in milb thus far. He just needs to settle in and learn and adjust some more. I think he's going to be fine. Speaking of being rushed, we've seen Rortvedt progress slowly but surely as a hitter with some power potential to go along with his great defense and game calling. Really hoping he can spend the majority of 2022 at St Paul to really get his bat right. He will probably never be a great hitter, but he doesn't have to be. All he needs is to be decent, not be a K machine, and jack some balls with his natural strength. I was actually impressed by Gordon more than some. Despite looking like a 16yo standing in with a uniform that didn't quite fit, he looked like he felt he belonged. He leaned the OF on the fly and appeared to have aptitude and ability there. I was also encouraged that he finished strong. I think he has a chance to be a nice utility player with speed and a bat that doesn't embarrass. The speed is NICE! Ryan flashed that he's a keeper. Not sure what more Ober could have done. My goodness, he's refined his delivery for better health, consistency and velocity and made adjustments all through the year. Expectations should be tempered for a pair of rookies, but I don't think either of these guys are #5 SP. Moran could be nasty with just a little more time and control. He may not break camp on the ML roster, but we're going to see a lot of him in 2022. Jax was inconsistent, to say the least, game to game and inning to inning. But that slider looks pretty nasty. I could see him developing in to a pretty good middle reliever.

If you want to, or need to for economical reasons, run a MLB franchise on the cheap, they are a model, no question. I find Brock's information to be disheartening in regard to TB's shoestring approach. I don't think it's good for the sport, much less trying to build a loyal fan base. And I wonder about sustainability. If they suddenly guess wrong a couple times, they're in the proverbial toilet quickly. But where I think we have to give them credit is their ability to find and develop young talent, via the draft and from other teams in trades. I have to say...and I'm NOT trying to open a can of worms for debate concerning Berrios or this current offseason....I think the Twins ARE following the Rays way of doing things in many ways, but actually spending available funds. They have completely revamped their entire system from the old regime in regard to player development. They've drafted pretty darn well and brought in additional talent via trade to augment the system. And it appears, despite some setbacks recently, we could see a large group of talented young players and pitchers arriving very soon to add to what is already on hand. (And no, I don't like EVERYTHING the FO has done or not done, just to be clear). Just a couple quick additional thoughts: 1] I don't think Buxton was extended due to fan pressure. I think he was extended because he's pretty good at baseball and they recognize that. While not knowing all the details, and never will, not so sure they wouldn't have kept Berrios if it was a 4 or 5 year deal vs 7. Right or wrong, they have an aversion to a pitcher signed for that long. 2] I also want to say that, IMO, there is a bit of a fallacy regarding the Twins drafting a glut of bat first, limited corner players. First off, you do need those corner players with big bats. Everyone does and everyone drafts them. But when I look at the drafts of the current FO, I see Sabato as the only high selection who is restricted defensively. While Rooker hasn't turned out to this point, he's a pretty decent athlete that could play 3 spots. The fact he hasn't improved defensively is a concern, but I don't think he was drafted to just be a DH. Larnach and wallner can both play a decent corner OF spot with good arms as well as being potential power plants. Again, you need those guys/bats. But they have also drafted Lewis, Cavaco and Miller very high as middle infielders. They've also drafted Steer and Julian who have excellent early returns and there is hope for Howard, despite a mediocre 1st season. And while not actual draft choices, the Twins have signed a number of international toolsy OF and infielders from Latin countries. So I think we need to re-examine the idea of a glut of bat first corner types.

To me, 3-4 is the easy and obvious choice. Unless you want to include Ober and Ryan in the discussion, who have obviously already appeared and flashed despite being prospects. But we also need to define what "shining" means in regard to 2022. Ober and Ryan are still prospects, IMO, even though Ober has exceeded rookie status, based on IP. Winder is the next, obvious, next man up. I think Balzovic is the next, next man up. For both of these guys, it's just about being healthy and taking the bump daily after 2 weird years. Sands could be as good as either of these two. We keep forgetting about him. Why? Duran is the "wild card" because if the Twins could be, baseball gods bless, be in any sort of contention, he could be a late season arm for the pen before returning to the rotation. But I would do everything in my power to nurture and "baby" him in 2022 to keep him as a SP option going forward. Everyone forgets about Strotman, a top prospect who had TJ and then jumped to AAA bypassing AA ball. What's his future? He could be a 2022 surprise. I expect nothing in 2022 from SWR or Canterino because SWR is so damn young and had his 2021 year disheveled due to the Olympics. But I believe he will be ready for 2023. Canterino is a victim of 2020 and 2021 ramp up/injury. He just needs to be healthy and pitch. He'll be in AAA before the year is done. Like Duran, nurture the arm and don't give in to temptation to move him to the pen too soon. You didn't specify rotation arms vs SP arms. Unless the Twins made a mistake and someone drafts and keeps him, Jordan Gore will pitch for the Twins in 2022. Jax just might take his FB/slider combination and make a mark in the pen. There is a real chance Cano, and maybe Mason force themselves in to the pen. Not sure what "shine" means in regard to criteria, but a safe vote could be an easy vote 3-4, but there is easy potential for more.