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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Should The Twins Shop Miguel Sano?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree it's a little hard to get overly excited about Rooker's 19AB. But I think he "looked ready" which is subjective as an arguement, of course, but an arguement that shouldn't be dismissed, IMO. Previously, he had struggled some when reaching a new level before adjusting. I was pleasantly surprised that he didn't seem to struggle in his SSS. It seems like he's been around for a while now simply because he's a little older...not ancient...and we've been talking about him for a while now. But he's only had 3 milb seasons plus the 2020 taxi squad. He has consistently produced after the previously mentioned adjustments. So maybe we shouldn't be surprised he looked the part in his short time with the Twins. That Sano is a streaky hitter is no surprise. He may always be to some degree. I had hoped be would build on 2019 to even out the peaks and valleys...certainly the depth and length of the valleys...in 2020, but no. I'm still hopeful that experience and a normal season will show continued development and a more even plane of performance. I am predicting no goodness or greatness for Rooker in 2021 or beyond, but I wonder if it's accurate to refer to him as a streaky player, despite the aforementioned "level up" adjustments he's had to make in the past. While it's true he is a power hitter prone to SO...313 times in 965 milb AB...he also hit .267 with a .357 OB to go along with his. 505 SLG and .861 OPS. Surprisingly, his quad slash line in the minors is ahead of Sano. Now, week to week and month to month, I don't know if Rooker has or has not been prone to any large degree of peaks and valleys. And how good he could be is a complete unknown. And I'm not ready to bank on him for 2021 either as a replacement for Sano or anyone else. But watching his short ML stint and looking at his milb numbers again, I'm feeling encouraged. -
Behind the Dish: Twins Catchers in 2021
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins had Telis at Rochester in 2019. He produced. They brought him in for the taxi squad. They carried him on the road for emergency. He has MLB experience. But they chose Jeffers when injury hit. That should be all that needs to be said. SSS or not, he looked good and the Twins like him a TON. I'd still like a AAAA catcher available. Not sure who that might be. Again, maybe Avilla with an invite and holding on. Maybe someone else. Despite some some bad games here and there, some poor performances at the plate mixed with some good ones, I'm OK with Astudillo as one of the options, though I'm not sure he's on the 40 man going forward. Healthy, head in the game, he HAS played at least OK defense and hit. But I would like that extra option for depth and experience available since Rortvedt is going to be at least a year away. -
Should The Twins Shop Miguel Sano?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To the actual headline of the OP, NO, I don't shop him. Like anyone else on the roster, you listen if someone calls. They might make you a deal you can't pass up. But I don't shop him. At some point, we all have to get over the fact he wasn't an All Star 3B who looked like a possible HOF player at age 24-25. He won't be 28yo until after 2021 starts. My concern is what he bas been thus far, and what he could be the next 3-8yrs. 1] Despite some regrettable injury situations, he has been mostly 100% physically healthy since getting over the weird/fluke heel injury in early 2019. (Covid early 2020 doesn't count). By all accounts he has grown and re-dedicated himself to better conditioning and preparation. 2] Even with missed time, he has a career OPS of .829 thus far with an OPS+ OF 120. Ummm...thats pretty good folks. If you don't want to allow for 2020 being a weird season for him, or other Twins, or a number of quality and even high profile players from other teams, then I have no arguement for an outlier season than to tell you a bunch of All Star caliber players must just be bums all of a sudden. He's stubborn and won't adapt? He was heaped with praise in 2019 for his new found conditioning and hard off season work, as well as working with and being attentive to Cruz. His OPS in 2019 was .923 and his OPS+ was 139! He was a major recruiter for Donaldson joining the team and even sent him a video imploring him to sign. Defensively, he was OK at 1B with some issues. What were those issues? They were two-fold. He was out of place at times after a lifetime playing the left side of the diamond and trying to get to balls he shouldn't have. And he about demolished a couple teammates chasing foul balls he should have let someone else gather in. Those are part of adapting and learning. He caught about everything thrown his way and was good to great in his scoops. He will only get better the more he plays there. Roster-wise, no doubt he could move to DH in a couple years to acomidate Kirilloff or Donaldson. Maybe 1yr depending on how the roster shakes out eventually. And that's not to say he can't stick at 1B for a few years plus, or fill in there for lineup variation and flexibility. Trade him, shop him, absolutely NO. There is so much good ahead for him. But listen to offers that are really good? Of course! -
Behind the Dish: Twins Catchers in 2021
DocBauer replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There's an arguement to be made for Avilla, or someone similar, for all the reasons previously stated, including just depth. This may be more true if the roster remains expanded next year. But you can't have Avilla back for anything close to what he made last season. -
Should These Twins Free Agents Stay or Go?
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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Should These Twins Free Agents Stay or Go?
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
First, just want to state how much I love and appreciate these video casts. They are a lot of fun and offer some very good insight/debate. I was happy to participate Thursday night in this live offering. While we have no way to determine 2021 payroll at this time, of course, I hold out optimistic and probably mis-guided hope the FO will find "acceptable financial losses" are in order, combined with window of opportunity, to keep the payroll at status quo. Of course, final numbers may still end up pro-rated without fans and a shorter season, etc. Short-sighted optimist? Probably. Can't let TWO bats like Cruz AND Rosario BOTH go. You are just relying too much on prospects. Is there a decent, less expensive option in FA to replace Cruz? Maybe. But he bas to remain a priority if the numbers align. Gone for sure: Hill, Romo and Gonzalez. Assuming Hill wants to keep playing, he's a 1/2 season SP who's velocity and SO continue to decline. Gonzalez is just not the player he was. There are at least a couple options out there that interest me who could take his spot for less. I think it's just time to mkve on from Romo, and not because of a couple bad games at the end of the year. See below. Probably gone: May, Adrianza and Avilla. Unless May gets a big offer, I'd much rather use Rome's $ for him. Were May a FA from a different team, many perspectives on him woukd be different. We remember that bad appearances and too easily forget velocity, SO's, etc. Adrianza back for the same $ or a little less should be considered. The glove is still there. He could be an excellent 2nd utility player beyond a Marwin replacement. Two solid years with the bat and a horrible 2020. Who is the real Adrianza? I could see a 1yr deal. I think Avilla is gone unless he's willing to take a much smaller 1yr deal to provide depth and experience. I'm honestly thinking he will be looking at a split contract with a MLB invite. Back if you can swing it: Odorizzi. Unless the Twins can pull off another similar Oddo or Maeda trade, who is another quality SP option better than Oddo himself? Is it a 1yr make good or a multi-year offer I'm not sure. The guy might not match Maeda or Berrios, of course, but combined with Pineda, we have a quality 1-4. Again, barring a smart and nice trade, who is a better option? Fitting all of this in a $125M payroll will be hard. But makes the most sense to me if possible. -
Twins Daily 2020 Awards: Most Valuable Player
DocBauer replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I also agree that in a league-wide scenario, it's awfully tough for a pitcher to win MVP. That's kinda what the Cy Young award is for. But if we are discussing a team concept on it's own, I don't have a problem with it. And it's really hard to argue Cruz over Maeda considering how good he was and how consistent, and sometimes dominating, he actually was. IMO, both were so good and SO important voting "justice" would have seen an even split between the two. -
Minnesota Should Plunder Another Pirates Pitcher
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Very smart post! As much as Rosario has meant to the Twins, and as much as I love him as fan, the reality of the market and covid finanalcial repercussions makes him a 1yr rental for trade value. Now, that could mean something for tne right team. But tbe return would be, at best, a projection arm. Unless he is packaged with someone else for maybe a better arm. Despite Pittsburgh re-building and a perception they have "given" arms away, Sheton knows the Twins system. It's possible they could go for something like Cave...talented and under control...and something else. Depends on the GM. But I'm thinking they would be looking at something along the lines of Larnach and Enlow. I think I'd make that move were I the Twins. A quality move that "hurts" usually means it's fair to both sides. -
Twins Daily 2020 Awards: Most Improved Player
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Really tough call between Maeda and Wisler. Maeda was a quality SP who moved to the pen to shore up a hopeful WS team pen. He then gets a new opportunity and becomes even better than he ever was! (Worried they need to try and keep him around 180-190 IP in 2021 considering the Dodgers previous use of him) And then you have a former top prospect who just never turned out, never fit in or "found it" with anyone else until he came to the Twins and Johnson. I guess I have to give it to Wissler for most improved. Honestly, no hyperbole after ONE season, but did we find a diamond in the rough who is a younger, cheaper and harder throwing version of Romo? I know 2020 was only slightly over a 1/3 of the a regular season, and there was a couple of games when he got pulled quickly...happens to all RP at times...but he started, he pitched in the middle and he even closed a game in impressive fashion. Is he the next Hildenberger or the next Romo? I don't know right now, but damn he looked good most days.- 4 replies
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Twins' Payroll Points to Six Big Decisions
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just tossing this out there, I'm really surprised by how many people are wanting/projecting Lewis as part of the 2021 team. I think that is a lot of false hope at this point. Don't get me wrong. I think he's super talented and has a nice future ahead of him. I don't hold a poor 2019 season with nagging injuries against him. Neither do the Twins as they promoted him once in '19 despite poor numbers. His great AFL MVP shows his potential. And I'm very pleased he was part of the St Paul taxi squad to continue to work on his game and develop. The FO was aggressive with Jeffers, and at least semi-aggressive with Rooker, Blankenhorn, Colina and Kirilloff late, even to just get their feet wet. Shows to me they believed enough in them to do so, plus opportunity/need was there. I think there is a real and practical chance that Lewis appears in 2021 as a potential super utility fill in. And I am not dismissing his ability or future impact, even if his initial ML time is spent as said utility option. Remember Arraez's initial multi-position introduction in 2019? But NO WAY they rush him to a bench spot to begin 2021. I really liked Ted's recent blog about utility options. He mentioned guys like Jrickson Profar and Asdrubal Cabrera as options to replace Marwin. (Still need a legit SS option on the cheap). We need someone like those guys for 2021 and let Lewis develop a little more. -
Twins' Payroll Points to Six Big Decisions
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To re-state the obvious, and John did so wonderfully, we just don't know the finances are going to look like in 2021. We also don't know, and will probably never know, how much MLB lost as a whole in 2020, much less the Twins directly. Unfortunately, what we also don't know is anything on a team by team basis. Did large market teams lose less % wise due to TV and radio and merchandising deals? OR, can we safely assume a similar loss % across the board? No matter what kind of dip we will undoubtedly see in FA offers, there will be a few key BIG signings, just as tbere every year. It's rather easy to speculate FA dollars/offers will be depressed, however, that depression fits right along with "anticipated" payroll cuts for most teams. Therefore, depressed offers only echo the shrunken payroll figures expected. What COULD influence less expensive offers, ergo VALUE to teams, is a flux of non-tendered players to saturate the market. Think the debate on a Rosario, for example. Good players teams may feel compelled to walk away from. Since this FO has come on board, ownership has proven to be much more flexible and aggressive with spending. They haven't exactly been printing money, they are still frugal as a mkd-market must be so, but they haven't exactly been miserly either. While moves have been good bargains, they haven't been opposed to trades, 1yr contracts, extensions that make sense, laying out some coin to bring in or keep players or even eat a few dollars here and there. This team still has a wide open window of contention with players on hand, and some very nice talent rising up. While it is my hope, all of ours I dare say, to at least remain status quo around $138-140M...if not bump to $150M which would put them about the ML mean for the past 2-3yrs...I think some sort of cutting will inevitably take place. I see, with my head and heart in complete agreement, they WILL NOT SLASH said budget. To do so would be self defeating for an organization coming off 2 of the best seasons in recent memory, if not history, of the Twins. I think a target of $125M is very safe and doable. I'd like to think they wouldn't balk at $130M...less than a 10% cut...if it made sense for the competitive team the FO wants to put in place. One of the biggest problems...faced by almost every team, not just the Twins...is no milb season in 2020. But, of course, just focusing on the Twins, how much better does anyone feel about plugging in one of our top OF prosoects, or Gordon and Blankenhorn as utility options, or Duran/Balazovic/Chalmers as rotation pieces when all you bad was the taxi squad scenario thus far? I'm not opposed to promotion...and I don't think the staff is either...or trading a couple prosoects. But it sort of feels like you are betting against the odds or potentially selling low at this point. Pushing the payroll envelope to $130M, a 6% cut, my back of the napkin scribbles have something like the following: Cruz: 13M Rogers: 6M May: 4M Clippard: 3M Utility: 2M Odorizzi: 12M IF $130M is viable, I have $3M for a second utility player, or invest a little more in my primary option, maybe a cheap flier for the pen or rotation. Not much to work with, but you still have a really good team with some depth. To me, it would really be hard to let May go. We're he a FA from another team, there would be a clamoring to bring his velocity and SO numbers on board. Odorizzi slots in beautifully with Pineda in the 3/4 spots to give us one of the best rotations we have had in ANY recent memory. And remember, he was set back by a stiff back, a shot to the chest and a bloody blister, NOT any serious injury. Cruz has been awesome at the plate and in the clubhouse. He is professional and keeps himself in great shape. A slump over the last couple of weeks due to a minor injury tweak should in no way indicate he is done. In fact, the 60 game season may have actually SAVED his body all the more for at least one more .900+ OPS season. But to build the best and deepest team you can, it seems to me at least 1 of these guys has to go. Do we really let Nellie walk and try to find a cheaper option, or just rotate the DH spot? Then you have to potentially bring Rosario back for another year, right? Can you afford to let May walk and trust in Alcala and bank on Colina or Chalmers? (Hate to move both out of the rotation so early). And if not Odorizzi, then you have to trade some milb talent to bring in another SP. You have to find another Odorizzi or Maeda trade out there. I've argued that just keeping Oddo made more sense to me than making a trade for a SP, whether it be 1yr or 3yrs. I still like that idea, but finances may not allow. I don't want to "sell" too early on prospects with no milb season to determine readiness, but Musgrove from Pittsburg, or similar, could make a ton of sense. Maybe letting May walk makes sense and you keep everyone else and free up a few more $M. You have pen options and some good looking arms really close. Again, really hate to just "give up" on a couple of those arms as potential SP, but it may be prudent. In addition to the enigmatic but popular and productive Rosario probably going, at LEAST ONE of the quality guys I've listed above, someone who meant a lot to the past 2 seasons, is going to have to go. Were you to twist my arm, or force me to watch a Yankee/Packer game, I'd change my thoughts on brining back Oddo and move a couple nice prospects for a controlled SP. Larnach and Enlow maybe? (Hurts)! Next, I'd have to let May walk. I think it's a mistake that could haunt and bring regret. But at least there is some depth, talented young arms available, and the FO and Johnson seem to have an eye for talent. Sorry, not sorry, for the long post. Just a lot to say. Sure hope it was relevant. -
Minnesota Should Plunder Another Pirates Pitcher
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
If the answer is NOT to bring Odorizzi back, this would absolutely be the type of deal they should be looking to make. Since Pittsburgh is rebuilding and has familiarity with our system, I wonder if this might be fair to both sides and easily made? -
Finding the Twins Next Utility Man
DocBauer commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
A smart post and something very important for 2021. I'm not so sure that Adrianza won't be back on a similar or cheaper deal. His glove is good. While no offensive force, he was a solid contributor in both '18 and '19. Was 2020 just an outlier? Not saying he will be back, or should be back, but he could be an option as the 2nd utility guy. Especially considering Gordon may not be ready initially as health bogged him down again. For the record, I have high hopes yet Gordon WILL turn out to be a solid, versatile bench guy. But I'm not ready to count on him yet. But the Twins absolutely need a Marwin substitute. I'm not sold on Blankenhorn, but hopeful he can be a decent, solid multi-position profile with power and a decent bat. But again, I'm not going to count on him right now. I think he's a ha,f season or so away. There may be more options available via FA, trade, or non-tender as teams evaluate 2021 and payroll. But I like a couple of the options you have presented here. Profar interests me the most. I expect no greatness, but there is enough to like in talent and positional flexibility combined with potential and youth that he could be a very smart signing. Secondly, I like Cabrera for one year in the sun for a contending team. Again, no greatness, but enough left and proven profile to be a quality veteran 10th player to fill in where it matters most.- 5 comments
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After reflection and listening to Aaron and John the other day, the more I feel it just might be time to move on from Romo...especially for that much $...and use the money toward May. His velocity and SO rate is fantastic. I also agree to a comment they made that some of are too close to the situation to see May objectively at times. We remember the few games where he served up a HR to the opponent before SO the side. We're he on the market from another team, there could be a clamor to bring him on board. *Note: On board with their proposed idea of buying out Romo so he can gauge interest and bring him back cheaper. Not saying we should, but it could be a good move. I really think he's a 6th-7th inning option going forward. **Note: The more I think about it, the more I think Clippard should be a high priority at around $3M, small bump from this season to get it done. I appreciate your enthusiasm for a move as big as Hader. Assuming he was even available though, finances are a real factor, especially after "covid 2020" and so much gray area financially going in to 2021. I recall WAY BACK in the day when the Twins traded for Reardon as a proven closer. I just don't see that as practical these days. What I'd like to consider...even with good arms on hand and some good ones potentially on the way...is a move for a Nathan-like or Pressly-like trade. Someone who is not a closer, or expensive, but a set-up guy with a live arm and potential. Especially if May wasn't brought back. And no, I don't have a name, its just a thought process. This FO has done a very good job identifying arms in the rotation and the pen they like and feel have upside. And instead of making a trade for a SP, I'm just wondering if a semi-proven pen arm with upside isn't the smarter route while brining Oddo back, as I spoke about previously.
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My $.02 for a nice article, good and bad. Just trying to keep it real. 1] Maeda: Pitched like a #1, maybe even an ACE. But I'm not going to call him that. I'm not even expecting that over a 162G season. Some will say he faded in LA and got bumped to the pen. I would argue he wasn't afforded the chance to pitch a full season due to the depth of their rotation options, AND, it's also been well reported that part of the reason be was moved to the pen late in the season was because the Dodgers needed pen help and he was OUTSTANDING in that role. The Twins changed his approach and sequencing and be had the best season of his career. Different team, different pitching coach, different sequencing, what's not to like? Negative? It's been a while since he topped 180 IP. His arm was rubber in a short 2020. He seems to be VERY capable of 6-7IP per start. Skip a start or 2, manage his IP, just set him up in 2021 for 180+ IP without a tired arm at the end. 2] Berrios: He suffers from 2 things. One is that expectation from desperate fans for a dominate arm like Gooden or King Felix hasn't happened...yet. The second, here we go yet again, is his late fade. The kid has produced so well that be has made 2 All Star games with outstanding numbers...not that that award is a be all...but never quite finished what he started. Yet AGAIN, both be and the Twins recognised he was wearing himself out with his routine. He made adjustments at the end of '19 and responded well. He probably would have benefited in '20 were it a normal season. Didn't he finish fine? Everyone wants a 22-24 ACE on their team leading their staff. I think if you did enough research you would find most of the best SP, with any sustained success, didn't hit their best runs until about the 26-27yo seasons plus. It's not just velocity, it's about knowing how to pitch. Berrios is just getting to the point where he is maturing enough as a pitcher to tame determination, stuff, experience, and knowledge about his routine and repertoire to being the best he can be. If be were a FA this off-season, we would be clamoring to sign him based on production and potential! But sometimes we are too close to see the big picture. Negative? Still needs to follow through with his new season long conditioning program to maintain endurance. Needs to continue to develop that curveball and not forget/ignore a change that looks really good at times. Despite his velocity increase this year, is he more effective dialing it back a couple mph for better control and movement? Or is it just a mechanical tweak? Second negative: Will he sign a nice extension that benefits both sides, especially considering the unknown market for both sides? Or will be gamble on himself and an unknown future? I'm worried we are going to end up losing a pretty dominate arm a year or two from now. 3] Pineda: Talk about history if you will. Smart signing! Outstanding in 2019 before his suspension. (I'm willing still to give credence to his explanation). He pretty much picked up right where he left off last season. He doesn't throw as nasty as he did a few years ago. But he is learned, has no doubt learned a few things from Johnson, and has adapted/transformed in to a slightly different pitcher than he was previously. Negative? While I seemed to somehow miss watching the games he appeared in, reports were that he was in at least "decent" shape. Results seemed to indicate his head and arm were definitely in shape. But will he STAY IN SHAPE for 2021 and a potential full season? Despite his experience/knowledge/stuff, can he go AT LEAST 160 IP to maybe 180? I am SO ENCOURAGED by this 1-3. Give me back a healthy Odorizzi or someone similar to share the 3/4 role/load, and I'm feeling damn good.
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Also have doubts about Thorpe at this point even though I've been a pretty strong believer in him. I'm willing to give him a mulligan for 2020 and I'd like to keep him around for another year. I hope Clippard is around next year. He's a bit of a priority in my mind and works as a 2nd LHRP even though he's a RH. I'd probably/maybe keep Thorpe as a SP for as long as possible to keep him stretched out and get his IP to keep working on his stuff. But I would strongly consider moving him to the pen where his velocity may play up and you just might have a solid 1-2 IP reliever. He's never had outstanding velocity. But his milb numbers, including SO numbers, have just been too good to ignore. I felt he flashed some in 2019. But we have to see SOMETHING much more encouraging in 2021 for him to remain beyond that.
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First of all, BIG ^5 to Darius for a great post! Especially having no milb season this past year, just counting on or young talent or expecting it to step forward and perform in 2021 to high standards is a fools errand. Let them earn a spot and push for a spot. Secondly I'm addressing the OP 50/50 on a trade situation scenario. But let's address the Bauer idea first. Now that he's a full fledged FA, I have serious doubts he's locked on the idea of a 1yr deal any longer. He's a smart guy. If someone offers him a 5-6-7yr deal worth $25-30M plus he's going to turn it down and just continue to get on himself? I just don't see it. Now, if he really wants a 1yr deal then give him a call. You can maybe/probably afford said 1yr deal as a "go for it" season. He might even like the Twins chances and the FO and have them near the top of his list. I just don't see it happening. So back to me being 50/50 on a trade idea. Is there another Maeda deal the FO has in mind? Go for it! But for that matter, the Odorizzi deal a couple years ago was cheap, smart and worked out very well. We absolutely need another quality arm to fill out the top 4 spots in the rotation. And there is system-wide depth to make a move like this. But I'm going to continue to argue that the right guy is right under our noses in Odorizzi. Why does everyone dismiss him so easily? He was solid in 2018 and made adjustments and was borderline outstanding for most of 2019. My goodness, he even made the All Star game in '19. (I recognize he slipped some late last year, but then looked better late and was solid in his playoff start). His 2020 was a complete and utter washout year. But we're talking about a stiff back, a shot to his chest and then some sort of blister or fingernail issue. We are not talking a shoulder, elbow, labrum, knee or another lingering health issue. If this was a full season, he very likely would have ended up being healthy for at least a half season and been a real boon to the rotation. Does he want to get on himself for 1yr? Is that all he gets offered? Is there a good and practical 3yr deal for him? If we open with Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and Odorizzi as our top 4...debate Who the 3/4 guy is...I'm really happy with that! Then you use FA to find yourself a decent, interesting option to compete for the 5th spot with Dobnak and prospects and if nothing else, help keep the seat warm. Where I'm interested in a trade is for a RP. I am not saying we will ACTUALLY GET a Nathan or Pressly, but could Rosario, Cave in a package, a couple of solid prospects in a deal, bring in a talented set-up arm to add to the pen with potential? I'd still look to bring May back unless his market goes nuts...which I just don't expect...but would love to add one more quality arm with experience and maybe some upside. I'd let Romo go at this point I think. Again, really like May back. But look for a BP arm that may be ready for the next level via trade. Clippard back very much interests me. Re-sign Odorizzi and then find the best FA SP option for the back end of the rotation. You still have room for the talented young arms on the way up.
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I will not yet again talk about Kepler being only 27 and rushed a bit, nor his starting out a good year behind HS prospects in the US when signed. I am also willing to dismiss the ball used in 2019 as well as dismissing 2020 for Kepler and just about anyone on the Twins and anyone in MLB. Just a weird and crazy season! Numbers prove it. He is a great athlete, though he doesn't exactly have the speed of a Buxton. (Who does)? He has a sweet stroke. He has a good eye. He has legit 20-30HR power. He should be a legit 30+ doubles hitter with a few triples tossed in. He's also a tremendous RF defensively who can cover CF just fine on occasion. But what is missing? One thing. His ability to "control" his bat and "spray" his hits. At various times, he has shown the ability to hit LH pitching. His power is real. But he needs someone to work with him and just learn how to make contact and hit the ball where you can. Inside out, knock it in to LF. He is a perfect example where "old school" thinking and approach actually works. Someone teaches him how to spray the ball and go the other way once in a while instead of looking to pull everything, you suddenly have him at the next level. He might "slump" to 25HR instead of 35, but doubles may increase along with BA. And his whole OPS may end up being as good or better than 2019. Really hoping this is what happens and he slides down to a #5-6 slot in the order for 2021. POTENTIALLY, I still don't believe we've seen the best of what Max càn be. Up to him as well as the coaching staff.
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Wonderful and fun article! Absolutely brought a smile to my face and tickled my funny bone! And really, every comment made here is smart and logical, whether you agree or disagree. And this the 5th-6th-7th OP to address Rosario over the last year plus. And there will probably be at least a couple more before 2021 begins. But let me lay out a few personal truths that I believe to be reality. I mean, why else am I here? LOL 1] There is some weird misconception about RBI with modern day analytics that I don't get. You want to score mkre runs than the other team. That's how you win. There is some misconception that I just don't understand that seems to state ANY decent hitter with power should be able to knock in runs if he has anyone on base in front of him. Really? Is it that simple? You tell me. I remember YEARS ago now when a younger Manny Ramirez didn't want to hit cleanup for the Indians because he didn't feel ready and didn't want the pressure. He enjoyed hitting and producing lower in the lineup. As I recall back then, he often hit 6-7. Of course, he grew and adapted and became a tremdous player. So by the "anyone with power and hit ability with opportunity" mantra, Kepler should just slide in to that spot. Or maybe Kepler as a rookie. Why not? They have hit ability and power. Look, I'm NOT saying Rosario is any kind of future HOF hitter. But he has produced. If ANYONE could be trusted to produce RBI, then managers woukd take 3-4 names, put them in a cap, and let someone draw out the heart of the lineup. SOMEONE here at TD had an amazing article after last season where some expert posted RBI success ratio over a full season and Rosario was near the top, despite his 2nd half lull. (I really wish someone could find that). Rosario is a proven RBI producer. Sometimes, he produces in a way that leaves you almost speechless! He has had moments that I believe only Puckett and Oliva could have ever produced. I laugh when people talk about RBI being a disposable stat. 2] Defensively, healthy, Rosario is quality with good range and one of the best arms I have ever seen. For every silly overthrow he makes, he has twice as many throws that nail a guy on the paths or at home. For that matter, for every silly mistake he makes on the basepaths, he makes a great read or jukes out a pitcher of fielder to make something happen. I've stated many times that I can take the mistakes Eddie makes for the 3 times he makes something great happen. 3] He produces, and brings a vibrance to the team that is hard to quantify. He may not be the leader that someone like Cruz is, but he brings a certain kind of energy that is important On the other hand: 1] Despite all his production and exuberance, and his innate ability to come through with magical moments, he is still prone to wild SO numbers and prone to chasing. It's one thing to be a bad ball hitter...Puckett and Oliva...but very different when you just swing at stuff to consistently that you just can't do anything with. While a SO might be better than a double play, not putting the ball in play or being able to just stroke a SF with runners in position is a real detriment. He's one of my favorite players. I'd love to have him back. I'd love to see him take his game to another level. I've followed him throughout his milb career. I have no illusions that someone like Kirilloff would replace his production immediately. But at some point, you HAVE to examine your roster and address finances and the future. Cruz brought back may be a factor here as well. But you have to either make a $ commitment to a nice player, though flawed, or trust in your young talent that could be as good or better. While a lover of Eddie, despite his production and everything I love about him, he remains the most easily replaceable regular on the roster going forward.
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Time for a Bauer Outage in Minnesota
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Let's just forget about 2020 financial losses across MLB and assume everyone is OK and willing to keep payrolls status quo for 2021. Even with some raises, re-signs, FA signings combined with some payroll coming off the books, the Twins could afford to bump their payroll closer to the $150-160M mark and still be FINE. All things being equal for anything resembling a normal season. And I could even see Bauer liking the idea of pitching for the Twins. And while it remains to be seen if he really wants to continue his year to year approach, the demand for his services will be high. He's going to be looking at $25-30M. Can the Twins afford that? Even for a single year? Maybe...all things being equal and level. But the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc, won't offer him as much or more? They won't offer him a 5 or 6 year deal for $250M plus that it would be impossible for him to turn down? Sorry I don't see him coming to the Twins. Adding to the rotation by re-signing Oddorizi, or making another solid Oddo/Maeda trade while developing Duran and Balazovic and others is the way to go. Without the crazy finances and an uneven financial playing field, you build the best and deepest team and system you can. Hopefully, from the progress we've seen thus far, the system will soon resemble Cleveland, Houston and others in regard to pitching development. Bauer would be great to have for a year. But I just don't see it happening. -
As Trov succinctly pointed out, there has long been shifts and defensive re-alignments. It's just gone to a whole new level the past few years through analytical research. For every hit that makes it through the infield where a player would have been in a traditional alignment, there are probably a dozen outs made by these shifts. If this wasn't so, the shifts wouldn't be happening. I think, however, that strategy always shifts, pun partially intended, lol. As guys DO bunt or change their approach and begin to slap the ball the other way instead of looking for maximum barrell contact, you very well could either see fewer shifts or not as exaggerated forms of such.
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LaMonte Wade Jr. is Too Interesting To Ignore
DocBauer replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wade's biggest problem is 4 fold. 1] He has pop and occasional HR power, but not corner power. 2] He has yet to prove he can play CF at the ML on a daily or semi-daily basis. 3] He's been stuck behind the more productive and powerful Cave at the moment, and just barely ahead of more talented OF options ready or about ready. 4] Despite being on "watch" prospect lists, he tanked 2019 at Rochester and did little to nothing in a brief appearance with the Twins. Sounds like a career nosedive to me. Except for ONE THING. I have ZERO illusions Wade is going to be some quality MLB starting OF. In fact, when I look at the Twins OF depth, I have a hard time seeing where he fits in. But despite so-so production, the guy I saw this season was an absolute battled at the plate. He actually looked like he knew what be was doing at the plate, which I didn't see last year. I not only saw solid defense but I saw a couple great plays and he surprised me by his defense at 1B. There is SOMETHING tbere to work with, be it the Twins or someone else. Can he play a good enough CF? Can he take those good AB and turn more of them in to hits, much less the occasional extra base hits? If Cave is gone, and he progresses, he bas a shot as a legitimate 4th OF option. But the OF talent in the Twins system tells me he's gone in a season or two max. Cellistino should push him out at least. -
Twins Early Offseason Outline: The Future is Now
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm agreeing with Cody here that the idea of blowing up a team that has provided so much success over 2 yrs and won back to back division championships is silly and not really the point. This is really about internal self-evaluation and opportunity to tweak the roster. The biggest problems is NOBODY bas any idea roster size for 2021, how the losses of 2020 will affect payroll OR FA and arbitration issues. Right now, the best anyone can do is just project "safe" financial numbers and speculate a full season and standard roster. Some things are going to stay the same, such as the universal DH. I suspect there will be a slightly expanded number of playoff teams, but probably not to the same degree as this year. Really hard to put the genie back in the bottle, especially when you see financial rewards and increased fan interest. I also suspect, especially with all the milb changes that are coming, that managers, staffs, FO and even ownership liked the 28 man roster. I'm actually expecting and hoping we will see a 27-28 man roster going forward. But I am waxing and drifting here. I believe the Twins have a wide open window here, despite frustration. The FO is guarded, but also stated that they believe a review is in order. Shouldn't that always be the case?! 1] At some point, finances and young talent force changes. I wouldn't be upset or disappointed if the FO stepped up to the plate and kept Rosario on a smaller deal vs arbitration. But as much of a fan as I am of Eddie, he is the most easily replaceable man in the lineup. Whether traded solely or packed or let go, it's time to open up an OF spot for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach. There could, potentially, be room for 2 of them. Additionally, one of Cave or Wade has to be gone. There's no room for both going forward. They are different players, and yet redundant to keep both. Some veteran bat with quality defense is needed for depth and security to cover Buxton. Pillar is often mentioned. Fine. Maybe him. But I'm sure other options may present themselves. But someone similar would be wonderful. 2] I seriously doubt the FO is going to shop Buxton or Sano. There is so much talent, so much potential there for 2 guys who are just ready to hit their prime years, that you just don't gamble the potential loss after a season as crazy as 2020 was. But you at least listen if someone calls. 3] Garver had one of the greatest seasons in MLB history for a catcher in 2019. Did anyone really think he would maintain that? But he is NOT the lethargic bat he was in 2020 either. If I were in charge of a ML team hurting at catcher, I'd be calling the Twins trying to peel him away based on his defensive improvement and his history of at least solid to good production. If I'm the Twins, I'd say no way unless you offer up something I can't refuse. We could easily have one of the best 1-2 punch battery for the next couple of years. Now, I wouldn't mind the Twins stepping up for a nice AAAA or split contract option on a guy for depth. 4] A healthy infield for 2020 is fine the way it is. But I think Marwin is toast. His defense was excellent, but the bat seriously regressed and he just looked slow when running. Adrianza has a great glove, but is he the "nice" contributor we saw the previous two seasons coming off a bad year? I don't want to spend $8-9M like we did for Marwin, but we need a guy who can play acceptable defense at multiple spots with a decent offensive game. Just ready to assume Blankenhorn is ready, but the FO knows way more than I do. And health and tough luck doesnt want me to bank on Gordon yet either. So I'm either going to re-sign Adrianza, or I'm looking for an option I like better. When your biggest worry about your infield is just depth and getting everyone healthy, you aren't in a bad spot. 5] The rotation is good to great as long as a healthy Odorizzi is brought back. Want someone else? Have we forgotten just how solid he is? Then find another Oddo or Maeda trade. Then make a solid back of the rotation FA signing or cheap trade. We need one more arm to compete with Dobnak and provide depth for now. Unless someone surprises, you re-sign May. Romo should be gone at this point. It's just time. You don't let a high velocity and productive arm like May's walk. He may never develop in to the potential closer you hoped for, but he's usually very good and I think there is another level he can still reach with just a bit more consistency. I'd love to have Clippard back on a 1yr. I don't think he's done yet. Whether through FA or trade, I'd like to see the Twins bring in one outside arm similar to Nathan. What I mean by that is a guy who is under 30 who may be ready for the next level based on opportunity, and working with an outstanding pitching coach who may unlock something more. The FO HAS believed in Thorpe. And I think with good reason. But something has been very OFF all year for this kid. I have been so disappointed. If he's still kept, maybe its time to make him a BP option where he could potentially excel. Does the FO still see Colina as a viable SP option if he can get that 3rd pitch? If not, like Graterol, convert him and don't look back. 6] Not player related, but examine the staff. The failed offense for 2020 is blamed so much on losing Rowson. Is that fair or accurate? Offense was down across the league. Injuries and short ramp up and SSS and a crazy season can't be denied. But is the approach right? Players say nothing really changed. Is that true? Was it just a weird year? Or has the whole order fallen in love with the long ball fundamentals were lost? You don't just BLOW UP a talented team with a nice mix of veterans and young players after 2 division flags and post season appearances even if the end result was futile. You look at depth in the system and places where you can tweak, re-tool and augment and develop. This team needs about 5 additions from what they already have to complete the bench and add a couple arms to round out the rotation and pen to keep that window open. With more talent on the way. -
The jist of the article is very accurate, but remains limited in scope as these options are only some of what may/will be available. Further, there are trade possibilities as well. The Twins DO NEED to add a couple of SP. Re-stating what I have expressed previously, a healthy Odorizzi is probably the easiest and smartest play to make. Does the FO have another Odorizzi or even Maeda trade target in mind? Great! But Oddo back just makes so much sense for both sides. But they will need another back of the rotation arm to compete with Dobnak and help hold the fort until Duran is ready. (And others). Maybe I'm forgetful or being naive, but it seems to me any sort of closer option is developed, not signed. And I can't honestly remember the last closer that was traded for. I think about the closers that the Twins have had going back decades now, and they came from within, or were acquired via trade like Aguillera, (though he was a solid SP at the time) or Nathan, similar to Pressly, acquired as a set-up man turned to a closer. Despite depth and prospect arms, trade or FA, I think the Twins need to add another experienced arm. But I don't see a guaranteed closer type waltzing through the door. It comes down to the right arm to help, or maybe ready for the next step forward. They also need a versatile utility player who has a decent bat to help across the infield, especially should Donaldson have any flare ups. There are a couple guys here that are intriguing to me. And I don't know that I'm overly concerned if they hit RH or LH. I could easily add a veteran 4th OF who can play a solid CF and be able to contribute offensively. TOTALLY appreciate the intent of the OP, and some of these guys could be options and shouldn't be dismissed as such. But the need for such players, so early in the process, is probably more the point and not necessarily THESE options.
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Is it Time to Move on From Nelson Cruz?
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
His numbers, even this year, speak for themselves. Even with a late slump and his rest due to a bum knee his production and OPS were outstanding. And he was the only run producer in the Astros disaster. Regarding his knee, never any reports it was anything serious. If it was, they kept it a big secret. In a normal 162G season, he would have rested, maybe hit the 10 man IL, then potentially raked the rest of the season. I put no stock in a poor week plus at the end of 2020. Unless there is a big offer from someone...and I just have a hard time buying that considering the financial affect of 2020...he needs to be brought back for his production and influence. That being said, with all due respect, it could be a miscalculation to get involved in a bidding war for him, no matter how great he has been, and still appears to be. The end IS coming sometime in the next season or two. Scenarios: 1] 1yr at approximately $15M, which was his first year salary. A small bump? Maybe some bonus money? I'm OK with that. 2] A similar deal to the $15M 1st yr and $12M 2nd yr he originally signed. Again, perhaps a small bump or some bonus $ for incentives. And I would be fine with a larger buyout for year 2, maybe $4-5M. Helps protect both parties. 3] Two years at $30M with the 2nd yr guaranteed with a plate appearance clause and the same $4-5M buyout. Again, both parties protected. And if he met the automatic 2nd yr clause, it means he is producing well. 4] Two years at around $30M fully guaranteed. I have qualms about this one, but could swallow it. You're risking the 2nd yr financially, though in reality, it's a potentially poor/bad 1yr deal as he surely has enough in the tank for at least one more season. Anything more than this, though I want him back, I have to look elsewhere. It just becomes too much of a $ risk with all factors considered.

