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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I’m fine with trading Larnach for a 40FV A-ball prospect like Fragoza. Sands still has an option. They can stash him in AAA or cut him in the spring if they find an upgrade. I think Lewis would be an adequate utility player, but if another team wants him for 3B I would trade him. The other interesting thing about arbitration is which players might be available on other teams.
  2. DJL44
    Really? I didn’t think a torn lat meant a whole year to recover.
  3. DJL44
    You fit Ober in the bullpen. He can regain his lost velocity pitching in relief. Even if he doesn't, I'll take his numbers the first time he faces a batter (.630 OPS against, 3.75 ERA). Those are better than Yoendrys Gomez' numbers.
  4. DJL44
    That's a really simple perspective. How are you going to upgrade that roster spot? Free agents will cost more for less value. They can replace Larnach with prospects but they don't have enough depth anywhere else to let players go for nothing.
  5. DJL44
    get a bigger contract in free agency than they would have in arbitration. Why do you want the team to destroy value by giving away players who are earning less than they would on the open market? Get international bonus money in return if nothing else. Banda is the best LHRP on the roster. Ober provided $15M of value in 2026. Larnach had a better year than Bell. Lewis is worth $5M if he repeats last season and a lot more if he improves at all.
  6. DJL44
    Every player they have is priced below free agent retail price. Take Banda, for example. For that price in free agency the Twins can probably get Taylor Rogers to return and not much better. Nance is projected to earn $1.2M and the union is pushing for a $1M minimum wage. Even Larnach at $6M is a much better buy than what they gave Josh Bell last winter. I doubt they can find a $7M reliever who would pitch better than Ober could out of the bullpen.
  7. DJL44
    MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates Minnesota Twins (10) Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout) Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MM None of these are bad
  8. DJL44
    What does a Keaschall extension look like? Comps Lawrence Butler 7 years $65.5M Michael Harris II 8 years $72M Ke’Bryan Hayes 8 years $70M Myles Straw 5 years $25M Luis Lara 7 years $31M Somewhere between 5 and 9 million for 5-7 years. Keaschall is a Super 2 so he gets four rounds of arbitration. Guessing 2/5/9/16 for a total of $33M if they go year to year. I would offer Keaschall 6 years $45M with an $20M team option.
  9. DJL44
    Comps for Walker Jenkins Julio Rodriguez 12 years $209M Jackson Merrill 9 years $135M Roman Anthony 8 years $130M Pete Crow Armstrong 6 years $115M Corbin Carroll 8 years $111M $14-17M in average annual value. Offer him the Jackson Merrill deal and call it good.
  10. DJL44
    I think you need guarantee the $27M to get 2030 at $20M. 4 years, $48M with a $25M option for 2031. Another shot at free agency at age 31.
  11. DJL44
    Maybe for Jenkins. 5 years is enough for Bradley and 6 for Keaschall.
  12. DJL44
    The games may have been meaningless for the 2026 Twins but they aren’t for Culpepper.
  13. DJL44
    What do they predict for Arraez?
  14. DJL44
    Rising: Caden Kendle, Ben Ross Falling: Charlee Soto, Quentin Young
  15. DJL44
    Slowly, which is better than having him put up 2026 Wallner numbers.
  16. DJL44
    Based on past injury history I would assume one of Jenkins, Buxton or Rodriguez is injured and possibly all three at the same time.
  17. DJL44
    Tickets to Twins games are plentiful and cheap. They ran 4 for $40 specials all summer with dollar hot dogs and $2 snacks. It costs the same as a high school football game.
  18. DJL44
    This is true. He has 40HR in the minors in 1563 PA and that is boosted by 10 this year from the silly ball. They both fill out the roster pretty well as 4th and 5th OF because they can play defense but neither has the bat to be a DH. Platoon them and you can make a 2 WAR outfielder.
  19. DJL44
    For small sample sizes, the OBP. Nobody thinks slugging percentage is predictive based on 8 hits. SLG depends on HR. Walk rate becomes predictive after about 120 plate appearances. Strikeout rate after 60. XBH rate becomes predictive after 1610 plate appearances.
  20. DJL44
    Your numbers prove he wasn’t overmatched. A .419 OBP against the best teams is quite good.
  21. DJL44
    They control Connor Prielipp through age 30. No need to offer an extension.
  22. DJL44
    They could easily carry Rodriguez on the team and not play him. They did that with Outman and Keirsey.
  23. DJL44
    I hope so. That would be an awesome outcome for Rodriguez. I’ve been hoping for Kepler 2.0 and that seems optimistic.
  24. DJL44
    I don’t want either Ryan or Lopez at age 34. Lopez will have more value at the trade deadline than he has now because he will only have $8M left on his contract. I would shop Joe Ryan and sell Larnach for whatever I could get. I would trade Ober or put him in the bullpen but I wouldn’t cut him. Does Lewis have trade value? He won’t cost much on an arbitration contract. He should provide 1 WAR for $5M. That’s fine for a utility player. Keep.
  25. DJL44
    I don’t get the word “trust” here. The relationship I have with the Pohlads is transactional. I pay for TwinsTV and they give me access to Twins games on TV. I buy a ticket and I get a seat at a Major League Baseball game. They have never failed to give me a seat when I have bought a ticket.
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