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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Based on the actual free agent signings last season that’s not true. The free agents you get for less than $5M are guys like Taylor Rogers who’ll give you an ERA just below 5 if you put him in the most favorable situations and have a quick hook. If you want someone like Hoffman or Minter the going rate is 2 years, $22M.
  2. DJL44
    That’s not a thing. Players are well aware of the performance required to make it to MLB and stay there. If they lacked that motivation they would never make it in the first place.
  3. DJL44
    But swapping out the bottom of the roster for more expensive free agents of the same level of talent would be idiocy. They need to add a top free agent. To do that they need to keep the players they have who are worth more than their arbitration salaries.
  4. DJL44
    He's unlikely to be a finished product his first full season in the majors and not a starter on the depth chart. He's still better than what they've had sitting on the bench the last few seasons.
  5. DJL44
    It's not that easy to find comps for Ober as a reliever because anyone worth more than $6M a season is getting a 2-year deal. Relievers who signed for 1 year, $5-7M last season and their 2026 results Phil Maton (got a 2 year, $14.5M deal) 27.2 IP, 6.18 ERA, 5.49 FIP Pierce Johnson $6.5M 48.2 IP, 4.62 ERA, 4.68 FIP Evan Phillips $6.5M 26 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.87 FIP Hunter Harvey $6M 4IP, 6.75 ERA, 8.35 FIP Shawn Armstrong $5.5M 35.1 IP, 4.58 ERA, 4.43 FIP Kirby Yates $4.5M 42.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.20 FIP Do people here doubt Ober could provide 50 innings of 4.50 ERA pitching out of the bullpen after doing it for 130 innings in 2026? That's what you get for $6M on the free agent market. Ober's 2026 stats the first time through the lineup are a .613 OPS against (.210/.276/.337) with 18 runs allowed in 225 plate appearances. For reference, Jeff Hoffman had a .671 OPS against with 33 runs allowed in 292 PA. AJ Minter had a .697 OPS against with 16 runs allowed in 186 PA. Raisel Iglesias had a .620 OPS with 21 runs allowed in 239 PA (60 IP). He made $16M last season. That's your comp for what Bailey Ober did the first time through the lineup this year. Ober has elite closer numbers the first time he faces batters.
  6. DJL44
    Did he have another injury? The initial timeline on his surgery recovery was he would be ready for spring training.
  7. DJL44
    Sure. His numbers the first time through the order are better than Yoendrys Gomez pitched in 2026. That’s without the 2mph boost he’s likely to get pitching as a reliever. You are unlikely to find a better free agent reliever for 1 year, $7M. Would you rather have Ober or 39-year old Kenley Jansen?
  8. DJL44
    I don’t think any MLB bullpen has 8 guys better than Nance. He’s probably worth $4-5M on the free agent market. Minter had an excellent year. Why would he take a 40% pay cut to sign with the Twins? The choice is Ober at $7M or someone like Kenley Jansen for $7M.
  9. DJL44
    They can’t turn over 40 roster spots in an offseason. Jenkins, Culpepper, Rodriguez are replacing Wallner, Outman and Gray. Kremer is replacing Ober in the rotation. They need a catcher, infielder and some relief pitchers. Cutting Banda and Nance just means they need to add 5 relievers instead of adding 3.
  10. DJL44
    The list is CJ Culpepper and Kalai Rosario.
  11. DJL44
    I’m fine with trading Larnach for a 40FV A-ball prospect like Fragoza. Sands still has an option. They can stash him in AAA or cut him in the spring if they find an upgrade. I think Lewis would be an adequate utility player, but if another team wants him for 3B I would trade him. The other interesting thing about arbitration is which players might be available on other teams.
  12. DJL44
    Really? I didn’t think a torn lat meant a whole year to recover.
  13. DJL44
    You fit Ober in the bullpen. He can regain his lost velocity pitching in relief. Even if he doesn't, I'll take his numbers the first time he faces a batter (.630 OPS against, 3.75 ERA). Those are better than Yoendrys Gomez' numbers.
  14. DJL44
    That's a really simple perspective. How are you going to upgrade that roster spot? Free agents will cost more for less value. They can replace Larnach with prospects but they don't have enough depth anywhere else to let players go for nothing.
  15. DJL44
    get a bigger contract in free agency than they would have in arbitration. Why do you want the team to destroy value by giving away players who are earning less than they would on the open market? Get international bonus money in return if nothing else. Banda is the best LHRP on the roster. Ober provided $15M of value in 2026. Larnach had a better year than Bell. Lewis is worth $5M if he repeats last season and a lot more if he improves at all.
  16. DJL44
    Every player they have is priced below free agent retail price. Take Banda, for example. For that price in free agency the Twins can probably get Taylor Rogers to return and not much better. Nance is projected to earn $1.2M and the union is pushing for a $1M minimum wage. Even Larnach at $6M is a much better buy than what they gave Josh Bell last winter. I doubt they can find a $7M reliever who would pitch better than Ober could out of the bullpen.
  17. DJL44
    MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates Minnesota Twins (10) Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout) Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MM None of these are bad
  18. DJL44
    What does a Keaschall extension look like? Comps Lawrence Butler 7 years $65.5M Michael Harris II 8 years $72M Ke’Bryan Hayes 8 years $70M Myles Straw 5 years $25M Luis Lara 7 years $31M Somewhere between 5 and 9 million for 5-7 years. Keaschall is a Super 2 so he gets four rounds of arbitration. Guessing 2/5/9/16 for a total of $33M if they go year to year. I would offer Keaschall 6 years $45M with an $20M team option.
  19. DJL44
    Comps for Walker Jenkins Julio Rodriguez 12 years $209M Jackson Merrill 9 years $135M Roman Anthony 8 years $130M Pete Crow Armstrong 6 years $115M Corbin Carroll 8 years $111M $14-17M in average annual value. Offer him the Jackson Merrill deal and call it good.
  20. DJL44
    I think you need guarantee the $27M to get 2030 at $20M. 4 years, $48M with a $25M option for 2031. Another shot at free agency at age 31.
  21. DJL44
    Maybe for Jenkins. 5 years is enough for Bradley and 6 for Keaschall.
  22. DJL44
    The games may have been meaningless for the 2026 Twins but they aren’t for Culpepper.
  23. DJL44
    What do they predict for Arraez?
  24. DJL44
    Rising: Caden Kendle, Ben Ross Falling: Charlee Soto, Quentin Young
  25. DJL44
    Slowly, which is better than having him put up 2026 Wallner numbers.
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