If Larnach puts up that line, he's non-tendered because he would cost over $7M in arbitration.
If Outman hits .260 it would be his best season in MLB by a HUGE margin. That would exceed his 99th percentile projection. He's hit .141 over his last 304 plate appearances over two seasons. He only hit .235 for the Saints. If we're just wishing for things to happen, then why not wish that Emmanuel Rodriguez hits .360?
Do you really think Emmanuel Rodriguez doesn't have the talent to hit better than .141? If so, it would be malpractice to keep him. Trade him now before he exposes that he doesn't have the ability to contribute in MLB.
A rebuilding team should operate WAY differently than the way the Twins have operated this offseason. They haven't made any decisions as if they're a rebuilding team.
Which is crazy because FALVEY ISN'T HERE ANYMORE. They don't have to be married to his decisions anymore. What's the point of firing the POBO if you maintain the exact same status quo?
There are a lot of other pitchers around the league with opt-outs. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see one of those pitchers end up in the Twins bullpen. If you're a veteran reliever looking for a big-league opportunity, the Twins bullpen looks like the easiest path.
That looks like a 50% success rate in MLB. That's the absolute best case scenario.
At best you get someone with a 50% chance of contributing. More likely you get nothing in return for Larnach, Outman or Clemens. In the meantime, you're stifling the progress of your best prospects and burning their options.
Why? I get why it makes sense to keep playing Wallner, but why does it make sense to give playing time to outfielders who clearly won't be around for the next good Twins team? At best they'll recoup a grade 40 prospect who is also unlikely to help the next good Twins team.
They should be set for low leverage situations, but I don't know if there's anyone I really trust with a 2-run lead in late innings. 8 interchangeable mediocre pitchers.
Option him and use Gray instead. Do they really plan on pulling Brooks Lee in the 8th inning of every game? If not they have no use whatsoever for Kreidler.
There are several. Google says Reynaldo Lopez, Michael King, Matt Barnes, Hogan Harris. Louis Varland increased his velocity, which improved his effectiveness.
If Ober can throw 2-3 MPH faster he will be as effective as he was at his best.
Maeda pitched out of the bullpen for the Dodgers. I would definitely try Ober in relief before I would release him. A move to the bullpen could increase his velocity enough to become effective again.
Not sure if he is old enough for Shelton. Better keep him in the minors a few more years while they play 29-year old waiver wire castoffs from other teams.
I see Caratini as the obvious pinch hitter for Larnach in late innings. There is a very small chance they have a catcher injury and they can still move Caratini to C but they lose the DH for maybe one at-bat. At that point you use your last position player to pinch hit for the pitcher.