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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    We're about 3 months too late for that.
  2. DJL44
    Those are basically the only players who should be stealing bases regularly. Wallner and Clemens can pick their opportunities. Everyone else is sorta bad at it. SB by notable Twins minor leaguers Player name SB CS SB% Kyle Debarge 66 8 89% Kyler Fedko 38 8 83% Yasser Mercedes 36 3 92% Angel Del Rosario 32 8 80% Kalai Rosario 32 7 82% Dameury Pena 28 5 85% Payton Eeles 27 8 77% Brandon Winokur 26 4 87% Kaelen Culpepper 25 4 86% Walker Jenkins 17 4 81% Emmanuel Rodriguez 10 3 77% And on the other end of the scale Gabriel Gonzalez 8 3 73% Hendry Mendez 4 3 57% Billy Amick 1 2 33% Now I am understanding converting Mendez to 1B.
  3. DJL44
    It might take a little more. 4 more seasons like this and he's in the group with Willie Davis, Vada Pinson, Torii Hunter, Al Oliver, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, and Andrew McCutchen.
  4. DJL44
    I don't understand why anyone would give this front office 3 more seasons to try to win before they get fired. It is not that hard to rebuild. They aren't that much worse than Cleveland or Detroit.
  5. DJL44
    I am still not sure if they will protect Klein this offseason. He's on the bubble.
  6. DJL44
    Everyone has a plan to get their work in, and it might not be ideal for winning that game. Players are promoted to a level where they are challenged, not left at a lower level to win games.
  7. DJL44
    Nobody is really trying to win in the minor leagues. Player development is the first priority.
  8. DJL44
    If Ober was a lefty, writers would call him crafty. Great job today, but when he has a bad day he’s a pinball machine. Very little room for error.
  9. DJL44
    I would like to see Twins Daily actively campaigning to get Byron Buxton some MVP votes. I don’t think he is the overall MVP but I also think Raleigh and Judge will clean up all the #1 and #2 votes. Buxton has an MVP bonus in his contract and I would rather see the money in his pocket than in the pocket of one of Carl Pohlad’s grandchildren.
  10. DJL44
    One walk in September
  11. DJL44
    Royce Lewis seems to have developed an allergy to walks. Just 1 walk vs 21 strikeouts in September.
  12. DJL44
    So, analytics?
  13. DJL44
    Now look at runs allowed. Does RBI tell the whole story of why teams win games or is there more?
  14. DJL44
    Spreading the saves around is the penny-pincher's approach because saves still mean money in arbitration. My guess is they sign a cheap free agent and give them the infrequently used closer role with the hope of trading them at the deadline.
  15. DJL44
    In case anyone wants to look at the SABR numbers, here's Twins ranked by RBat + RBaser + RDP. That's batting plus baserunning, plus double-play avoidance. Buxton 30 Keaschall 10 Bader 6 Wallner 4 (a very mediocre number) Castro 3 Martin 2 Pereda 1 Jeffers 0 Fitzgerald 0 Clemens -1 McCusker -2 Larnach -3 Outman -3 Correa -4 Lewis -4 Roden -4 Miranda -4 Bride -5 France -6 Julien -7 Gasper -7 Keirsey -11 (in just 86 plate appearances!) Lee -12 Vazquez -12
  16. DJL44
    Comparing a rate stat to a counting stat is usually a terrible idea. What you're really pointing out is how linear weights are necessary to fully measure offensive performance. In other words, sabermetrics. If we want to look at sabermetrics - Wallner has an RBat of 6, which isn't great, but it's 3rd on the 2025 Twins after Keaschall (8) and Buxton (22). He's had a down year, which everyone agrees with. That's not the problem with the Twins offense. The big problem is fourteen other players with a negative contribution on offense including Keirsey (-12), Vazquez (-11) and Lee (-11). If you look at just RBI it will tell you that Brooks Lee was the 2nd best batter on the Twins when he's actually one of the worst. Scoring more runs than you allow wins games, not RBI. The Athletics are 6th in the AL in RBI.
  17. DJL44
    The commenter referred to OPS, not OPS+. The fact that Bonds is only 6th on the list actually shows what a terrible job RBI is doing. Bonds has the best offensive production of any player in the history of baseball by a significant margin and he's ranked 6th. Ted Williams ranks 16th in RBI but he's a top 10 hitter. Willie Mays is also a top 10 hitter but he's 12th in RBI. Rickey Henderson doesn't show up on the RBI list until #216 and he's one of the top 20 offensive performers all-time. RBI is hot garbage.
  18. DJL44
    Wallner's only plus defensive asset is his 96 MPH throwing arm. That becomes mostly useless at 1B. He has below-average range but plays home games in one of the smallest RF in the majors. RF area rankings 30) NY Yankees 24.2 29) Philadelphia 25.5 28) Pittsburgh 25.5 27) Tampa 25.7 (Tropicana - Steinbrenner Field is more like Yankee Stadium) 26) Cincinnati 26.0 25) Baltimore 26.3 24) Seattle 26.4 23) Minnesota 26.6 22) Cleveland 26.6 21) Houston 26.6 Looks like Tampa would be a good fit for Wallner. The AL East has 3 of the 6 smallest RF.
  19. DJL44
    Do you know of a better bat the Twins can get who makes the minimum salary? For a team trying to play with a budget in the bottom 20%, he's a great player to have.
  20. DJL44
    The most remarkable thing about Genesis Cabrera's career is he has somehow accumulated enough service time to qualify for free agency.
  21. DJL44
    OPS has been popular since the mid-1980s and on baseball cards since 2004. Is a 40-year old stat "new age"? Look at the OPS leaders - they're all great hitters. If you want a really misleading stat for offensive production - use RBI.
  22. DJL44
    So much self-contradiction here. If winning teams aren't built around .204 hitters, then why would another team look to Wallner to improve their offense? Large market teams almost always have an old, expensive, fading star to play at DH. Contenders get All-Stars like Soto and Judge to play in RF. Wallner's best fit is probably on a team like the Twins - low budget and lacking offense. Maybe you could get Tampa, Colorado or the Royals interested.
  23. DJL44
    Minor League Relief Pitcher of the Year is kind of like awarding a Minor League Utility Player of the Year. Both roles are filled mainly by non-prospect organizational filler. I am not a believer in the 3-inning relief pitcher role for the majors. However, it seems to be a decent way train future potential relievers in the minors without starving them of innings.
  24. DJL44
    Outman has better AAA numbers than Fedko. Kyler Fedko .268/.353/.476 in 187 PA James Outman .283/.382/.579 in 959 PA
  25. DJL44
    He had a .370 OBP in 2023-24. Getting on base is a good thing. Even as his average declined, he kept taking his walks. It's one reason his RBI numbers are bad - with RISP he has 11 hits and 14 walks. A .177 average but a .329 OBP. Pitchers are much more careful pitching to him with runners on because they know any mistake could go over the fence. Wallner had a down year, you could tell he had some bad streaks at the plate where he was fighting it. The bigger problem for him has been staying on the field. 104 games played is a career high, and it isn't anything special. He actually hit lefties better than RHP this season. He hasn't shown a huge platoon split in the minors either. I wouldn't turn him into a platoon bat. I think he will spend a lot more time at DH, especially on the road, with Martin, Rodriguez and Jenkins showing better outfield range. I don't think he's a first baseman. If he can keep making those adjustments at the plate, he's a good bet to be a 2 WAR player next season. If he can play 150 games, he's probably going to hit 30 HR.
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