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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    That's a non-starter unless they remove all penalties except financial penalties for noncompliance. I think we will see league minimum salary of $800,000, no floor (because it doesn't actually solve any problems) and a 10% increase in the ceiling. ($230M up to $250M by the end of the agreement) We may also see mandatory free agency at age 29.5 regardless of service time with a start date in 2 seasons. That should get them back on the diamond.
  2. DJL44
    I think an automated strike zone would end his career. He can't cover the rule book strike zone.
  3. DJL44
    The hardest part for the Twins is the 40 man roster is full of prospects who aren't ready yet. None of Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Sands, Strotman, Vallimont and Winder are expected to help early in the season. That's 1/3 of the pitchers on the roster. Maeda is out for the season. That means they're choosing a pitching staff of 13 from the remaining 14 pitchers. Out of those 14 pitchers Ober, Ryan, Moran and Garza have very limited MLB innings. Bundy, Dobnak, Jax, Stashak and Thorpe were a combination of injured and terrible last season. Right now 4 of those 5 pitchers are locks and the 5th one is the first call-up from AAA. This is why the moves to add Bundy and Cotton are so bizarre. Why keep adding question marks to a pitching staff that is almost all question marks?
  4. DJL44
    That's probably because pitching prospects actually develop into pitchers other teams want to trade for about 25% of the time. Success and Failure Rates of Top MLB Prospects - Royals Review
  5. DJL44
    Absolutely don't trade him for veteran pitching. The Twins should be acquiring high-upside pitching with lots of team control, not expensive veterans.
  6. DJL44
    Catchers will still be weeded out by pop time and ability to block pitches. Don't expect too much bat.
  7. DJL44
    If we change the strike zone to better match what the human umpires are already calling as the strike zone, why go through the effort of automating the strike zone?
  8. DJL44
    That's actually pretty easy. Make the ball 1/4 ounce heavier and you will reduce both pitch velocity and home runs. It will also reward foot speed.
  9. DJL44
    You don't think that will still happen with an automated strike zone? There will be pitchers it favors and others, who used to be gainfully employed in MLB, that will wash out of the league. It will kill careers. I am not convinced we will even want the strike zone called as it is defined in the rule book. Humans naturally round off the corners and produce a more oval shaped zone. A human umpire will give more leeway at the top and bottom of the strike zone if the ball is over the middle. Likewise they will give the inside and outside edges if the ball is belt high. This makes sense intuitively - those balls are easier to hit than a ball that hits the corners of the rule book strike zone. Calling the strike zone as defined in the rule book is going to favor pitchers as there are places in the rule book strike zone that are unhittable. Do we want to make rule changes to make things easier for pitchers when the league is hitting a collective .244/.317/.411 and strikeout totals are setting records?
  10. DJL44
    Grammar nitpick - I always thought it was relief corps - like the press corps or Marine corps.
  11. DJL44
    I don't understand what is "unfair". Both sides have to deal with human umpires. It's completely fair. How far down the chain are we propagating robot umps? Amateur baseball will never implement it. If the highest level implements it they probably have to go all the way to rookie ball. You're not going to train players with one strike zone and then spring a different zone on them when they get to the big leagues. You are delusional if you think an automated strike zone will keep players from getting upset about a call. Did you ever watch McEnroe when they first put in the automated line detectors in tennis?
  12. DJL44
    Did you read my message and respond in less than 3 seconds? That's the time delay. Not sending the message. It takes the brain about 1/4 second to process a visual stimulus. That's the absolute least amount of delay and that's when it's only processing that stimulus. New Measure of Human Brain Processing Speed | MIT Technology Review How much bandwidth do you think they have to implement changes? Only so much works gets done at one time. Why start with the 50th priority item on the list?
  13. DJL44
    25-30% - if you assume the Twins are about as good as anyone else at developing pitching. Pitching prospects flame out all the time.
  14. DJL44
    Is the home plate umpire looking at something to make the call or does it just end up on the scoreboard somewhere? If the umpire has to look at something and make the call there will be a time delay to send the data to the umpire and have him relay the result. 3 seconds is conservative in that scenario. The home plate umpire is still going to have judgement calls beyond balls and strikes. Check swings, foul tips, hit batters, etc. He will need to overrule the computer occasionally. I don't see ball/strike calls as the biggest issue MLB needs to fix. The biggest issues are pace of play and the lack of balls in play. If there are any rule changes they should be to address making the game more interesting. I see instant replay as an "improvement" that backfired. The calls are more accurate but the time spent making the calls more accurate makes the game take even longer.
  15. DJL44
    The time delay could kill the game entirely. If it takes 3 extra seconds to make a ball/strike call that's an extra 900 seconds per game - 15 minutes of additional time where nothing is happening. We all know the batter is going to wait until the computer makes the call before he adjusts his batting glove a 35th time and the pitcher is going to wait until the batter steps into the box to argue about the sign with the catcher. 15 extra minutes a game and now I'm going to bed in the 7th inning instead of the 8th.
  16. DJL44
    Possibly, but he's definitely NOT the best player who isn't in the Hall of Fame. It isn't the borderline cases like Ortiz that get me upset. It's passing over 50+ other players who were better baseball players to pick the borderline guy instead.
  17. DJL44
    Donaldson has negative trade value and Maeda is hurt and untradeable.
  18. DJL44
    Someone already mentioned Arraez as a great trade candidate, mainly because he would be worth more to another team as an everyday player than he is worth as a bench player on this team. It also opens a spot for Jose Miranda. Arraez is young and cheap but also an established big league player. The Twins should try to move Mitch Garver this offseason. He turns 31 in January. A contender would give up quite a bit for a productive hitting catcher like Garver who is on a $3M contract. Garver should get a chance to play his last couple productive seasons for a contender. The Giants, Braves and Rangers should all be interested and there are probably more teams since every team needs two catchers and his contract fits every team's budget. The Twins should also be looking to trade Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers and Caleb Thielbar but those moves will probably happen closer to the trade deadline. Rogers is going to bring back a better return if he shows he's healthy. Duffey might look better if a contender only has to pay his salary for half the season.
  19. DJL44
    If the Twins top a .500 record with the roster as-is he's a candidate for Manager of the Year
  20. DJL44
    He's certainly ready. He was ready for a September callup and didn't get it.
  21. DJL44
    They're either lying or they're too incompetent to realize this isn't a contender. I don't really like either option. As you said the pitching staff is all question marks, shortstop is a giant hole and they're relying on rookies in left field.
  22. DJL44
    When have the Twins created an entire rotation out of prospects in one season? I can't think of that happening before in this organization. This team has been lucky to get a decent starter once every 5 seasons (Berrios, Gibson, Liriano). Out of the pitchers you listed above only one is on the MLB top 100 list - Balazovic - and he can't stay healthy enough to pitch a full season. This organization believes it's own press releases.
  23. DJL44
    RBI correlates very well to players who have a high slugging percentage. It's also a junk stat because it adds noise to the data and there is a readily available stat (slugging percentage) that is much better available. Why would you use WPA when you can use PWAA instead? PWAA doesn't give you garbage results saying Trevor Hoffman is a better pitcher than Walter Johnson.
  24. DJL44
    I would be mad at Ron Gardenhire, not Bobby Keppel, if they decided not to use Joe Nathan in a close game. WPA measures whether the manager is putting the right pitcher in the game. It doesn't measure the performance of the pitcher. It also doesn't measure defensive contribution at all. It is a junk stat when assessing pitcher performance. It's the flip side of GWRBI.
  25. DJL44
    It's exactly the same for the pitcher. It isn't harder to prevent runs in the 9th inning than it is in the first inning. Why should a pitcher get credit for how he is used by his manager? At least we agree on this - at his best Joe Nathan was about as valuable as a middle rotation starter. How many middle rotation starters should we put in the Hall of Fame?
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