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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Relief pitcher is NOT a position. Pitcher is a position and the best starting pitchers are far more valuable than all relief pitchers. This is recognized by general managers and reflected in wages where all but the very best relievers are paid less than a mid-tier starter. WPA is a junk stat like Game Winning RBI. If you were going to design a stat specifically to overrate relief pitchers it would look like WPA. This is evident in your list where Joe Nathan places ahead of Randy Johnson. This is clearly a complete garbage stat when it comes to evaluating who was the better pitcher. Give me first pick assembling a baseball team and I'll take Randy Johnson (or any starting pitcher on that list) over Joe Nathan every single time. Working out of the bullpen is easier. That's why mediocre starters can switch to the bullpen and have so much success. Relievers don't have to pace themselves and never see the same batter twice. Often the reliever comes in with the platoon advantage facing batters they are well equipped to get out The main reason we have relief pitchers is it upsets the batter's timing to change pitchers throughout the game. Smoltz was moved to the bullpen out of injury concerns. He instantly became the best reliever in baseball which is what you would expect if you waste the talent of a Hall of Fame starter in that role. Joe Nathan pitched well but he pitched in a role that is easier and provides less value to his team than a good 3rd starting pitcher.
  2. DJL44
    If you think this is even close I question whether you understand how baseball games are won and lost. The difference in their contribution is 1102.1 IP and 456 runs allowed. That's a pitcher with a RA9 of 3.72 in over 1000 innings! That's a successful career as a #2 starter. It's actually better than Jose Berrios' career so far. We can look at WAR - since they're pitchers it is easy to compare them directly. Pitcher WAR WAA Santana 51.1 32.8 Nathan 26.4 14.0 That includes all the imaginary bonus credit that BBREF WAR gives relievers for leverage. Joe Nathan was basically half the pitcher of Johan Santana. By WAA he's not even half. Santana was the best pitcher in MLB for a stretch of about 3 seasons (2004-2006). Joe Nathan was the best pitcher in MLB never. Relief pitchers are in the bullpen because they're not good enough to be starting pitchers. There are basically two pure relievers who deserve to be in the Hall of Fame - Hoyt Wilhelm and Mariano Rivera. Dennis Eckersley's combined career is worthy but not just his relief innings. If I'm feeling generous I could be convinced on Goose Gossage but then we need to also let in some more starting pitchers. Nobody else belongs. Elect the best starting pitchers (aka the best pitchers) from this era instead. That includes Johan Santana.
  3. DJL44
    Tony La Russa watched the guys juice up and put them in the lineup every damned day.
  4. DJL44
    Relievers are way overrepresented in Cooperstown. Tim Hudson was a better pitcher than almost all the relievers who have been inducted.
  5. DJL44
    Don't know how you feel about Dick Bremer but he fits the type of people who have been previously inducted. So out of the possibles we have Players: Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Dave Goltz?, Roy Smalley? Corey Koskie? Slim pickings here. Non-players: Dick Bremer, Terry Ryan, Dave St. Peter, Mike Radcliff
  6. DJL44
    I forgot about Mauer, assumed he was already inducted. They retired his number so that's a no-brainer.
  7. DJL44
    Terry Ryan looks like an omission
  8. DJL44
    Radke was inducted in 2009. Allison was inducted in 2003.
  9. DJL44
    He wasn't that good as a player or a broadcaster.
  10. DJL44
    I'm surprised they took all 3 in one year rather than spreading them out over the next 3 seasons. They don't produce 3 new "Twins Hall of Fame" players a year. Next? My vote is nobody until Buxton or Berrios retires. If they can't wait that long, then Dave Goltz or Brian Dozier I suppose.
  11. DJL44
    I'll add a little to this. He's estimated to get $3M in arbitration this season and probably $6M in 2023. Why would you want to turn a 2 year $9M non-guaranteed contract into a 4 year $40M guaranteed contract? That's a 2 year $31M extension for 2024-25 (ages 33-34) which would make him one of the top 5 highest paid catchers in baseball. Assuming he is still productive two seasons from now they shouldn't have any problem to signing him to a 2 year $31M extension (or more likely 2 years - $20M) in October 2024. Your proposed extension would turn Garver from a trade asset to a liability. I'm not even convinced Garver will outproduce Jeffers this season. You can't be spending $15M on your backup catcher. If his cost is likely $29M over the next 4 years if you go year-to-year then the Twins should get a discount on the extension. Garver has yet to make much - 9th round pick with one arbitration season. I think they could get a 4 year deal done for $22M. Even then I would hesitate if I were running the Twins.
  12. DJL44
    I think people are underrating Celestino. I think he's going to be at least as good of a hitter as Akil Baddoo and a better fielder. He could be an average CF. The Twins have Buxton so Celestino is mostly valuable as trade bait once he establishes himself at the major league level. Then we can have at least 100 different TwinsDaily threads about whether the Twins should trade, keep or extend Celestino.
  13. DJL44
    Hell, no
  14. DJL44
    I see Ramon Laureano as a good comp for Celestino. He could be an average MLB centerfielder.
  15. DJL44
    3 $1M position players and 10 $100,000 pitchers.
  16. DJL44
    I don't think he has ever wanted to play for the Twins if he had the choice to play elsewhere.
  17. DJL44
    Rolls Royce, Austin Martin and now a Mercedes. Go spend the rest on pitchers.
  18. DJL44
    My favorite player growing up. I got an autographed photo from him once.
  19. DJL44
    One thing to consider about these trade values: Arraez will only come down while Sano and Donaldson will come up over time. Arraez has value now because he's cheap and versatile. As he gets closer to free agency and his arbitration salary goes up his trade value decreases. He is at "peak" trade value with established but not expensive performance. Sano and Donaldson have negative trade value because their remaining salary is high. If the Twins hold onto them for half a season, those numbers get less negative. Sano might even reach positive trade value if he starts the season on a hot streak. There is no urgency to trade Donaldson now, the Twins have plenty of room in the budget for payroll (> $30M) and no desire to spend it.
  20. DJL44
    Trading Arraez is a good idea. If there is "no confidence" that the current front office can trade Arraez for value then the solution is to fire the current front office, replace them and then trade Arraez. Arraez at DH doesn't make any sense to me. He had a 105 OPS+ last season - that's easy to find in a DH. Also, I'd rather have Arraez playing 1B and Sano at DH. You put Sano (the worst defender on the team by a WIDE margin) at DH because he hurts you the least on defense at DH. The Tommy Herr reference earlier is interesting. Herr is one of the most similar players to Luis Arraez.
  21. DJL44
    Yes, they should trade Arraez but if they do as bad trading him as they did LaMonte Wade there will be grumbling.
  22. DJL44
    I am concerned that Duran is going to run out of options before he can show success as a starter. That will probably make him a reliever.
  23. DJL44
    I expected to see Royce Lewis and Austin Martin on this list.
  24. DJL44
    I think an automated strike zone would end his career. He can't cover the rule book strike zone.
  25. DJL44
    The hardest part for the Twins is the 40 man roster is full of prospects who aren't ready yet. None of Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Sands, Strotman, Vallimont and Winder are expected to help early in the season. That's 1/3 of the pitchers on the roster. Maeda is out for the season. That means they're choosing a pitching staff of 13 from the remaining 14 pitchers. Out of those 14 pitchers Ober, Ryan, Moran and Garza have very limited MLB innings. Bundy, Dobnak, Jax, Stashak and Thorpe were a combination of injured and terrible last season. Right now 4 of those 5 pitchers are locks and the 5th one is the first call-up from AAA. This is why the moves to add Bundy and Cotton are so bizarre. Why keep adding question marks to a pitching staff that is almost all question marks?
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