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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    You can't trade a player you just signed as a free agent until June 16th.
  2. DJL44
    This board overvalues players in the Twins system and undervalues players on other teams.
  3. DJL44
    That conflicts with the scouts who saw him play in the Arizona Fall League. Consensus was he can play SS. The same scouts say Austin Martin doesn't throw well enough to stick at SS.
  4. DJL44
    It's a fair comparison, but not to the Rod Carew people saw playing for the Twins in the 1970s. Arraez compares to the Rod Carew the Angels got in the 1980s: no longer a plus on the basepaths and limited to 1B,
  5. DJL44
    Using MLB trade value's numbers they are underpaying Gallo by $1.2M. The only way you can have surplus trade value on a 1 year contract is by underpaying.
  6. DJL44
    They're counting on one of Kirilloff, Larnach, Lewis, Julien, Martin or Wallner to step forward and it's pretty good odds one of them will.
  7. DJL44
    Given enough outings, it mostly measures the inning the pitcher was used in.
  8. DJL44
    Salas reminds me of Jorge Polanco
  9. DJL44
    Salas is a stud prospect. I'm shocked he was the throw in.
  10. DJL44
    I don't know how they did it but the Twins might have received the two best players in this trade.
  11. DJL44
    The exact same risk exists with him pitching max-effort out of the bullpen. The only way to avoid injury risk is to keep him from pitching.
  12. DJL44
    Picture two relievers. One strikes out the 3, 4, 5 hitters in the bottom of the 8th when the team is behind by 5 runs. The team rallies and goes ahead by 1 run in the 9th. The next reliever walks the 6, 7, 8 hitters and gets #9 to line into a triple play to end the 9th. WPA would have you believe the 9th inning reliever did a better job than the 8th inning pitcher. WPA doesn't address fielding at all which means it is ignoring people who actually prevented or allowed runs (1/3 of the value assigned by WAR) and assigns all the value to the pitcher and the hitter. Just by ignoring fielding is it overestimating the value of the pitcher by at least 50%. It is a storytelling stat, not one that is useful to determine value. WAR awards leverage for circumstances out of the control of the pitcher but it doesn't address degree of difficulty. It is much more difficult to pitch 6 innings than it is to pitch 1 inning. The only reason the manager has the option to put a reliever in a high leverage situation is the starter was able to get them to that point in the game. I think leverage is a good way to determine whether a manager is using his bullpen correctly but it doesn't tell us anything about the effectiveness of a pitcher.
  13. DJL44
    I went to an NFL game once and a guy in the row behind was complaining about the coaching. He actually said he coached Pop Warner so he knew what he was talking about.
  14. DJL44
    I'm pretty convinced the WAR leverage index is overrating relief pitchers and WPA is a useless garbage stat like GWRBI.
  15. DJL44
    So like watching at my uncle's house.
  16. DJL44
    Duran's stuff is miles ahead of Lopez. If the Twins try Duran as a starter and it doesn't work out they can always move him right back to the bullpen. If it does work out they could have an ace at a minimum salary. It is hard for me to believe that they don't even want to try, especially since Duran wants to be a starter. It could be the team's biggest waste of talent since they released Luis Tiant.
  17. DJL44
    Put Maeda and Ober together and you have a whole pitcher.
  18. DJL44
    Kids will probably have more fun at a Saints game.
  19. DJL44
    Are they going to let me sit there for 3 hours and not order anything? I usually don't eat at the Twins game.
  20. DJL44
    I've never really understood SRO tickets. Is there a place I can still go and sit during the game or do I have to roam the concourse sneaking peeks over the vendors?
  21. DJL44
    Arraez "didn't play 1B" until they put him there last season. An infielder at any other position can usually handle first base.
  22. DJL44
    The Twins have near-majors non-roster offensive talent in the minors (Austin Martin, Brooks Lee) but no non-roster pitching talent above A-ball. If the Twins trade Arraez they are counting on one of Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Julien, Lee or Martin to step up and fill a spot in the lineup. They don't have 7 potential prospects to fill a spot in the rotation - just SWR and Varland.
  23. DJL44
    He also has the potential to be a lot worse. Batting average is pretty volatile. If he only hits .270 next year and he still doesn't have any power he'll be below average at 1B.
  24. DJL44
    Then every player in MLB under 30 is a prospect and the term prospect has no meaning at all.
  25. DJL44
    Nope
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