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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I agree, pretty easy decision to tender all of these players a contract. I also think buying out Jeffers through arbitration is a good idea but am hesitant to extend him more than a 4 year contract. He's turning 27 next year and catchers don't age well. 4 seasons $24M plus a $10-12M option would be best for the Twins and guarantee Jeffers his first big payday.
  2. DJL44
    With the depth the Twins have on the current roster I don't expect to see anyone added unless they force themselves onto the roster or they're forced to add them. That may keep Festa in AAA for most of the year since he doesn't need to be added to the roster until next offseason and they will want to keep his 3 options for 2025-2027. Kalai Rosario, Pierson Ohl and Marco Raya will all wait until 2025 to get added the roster. That's also a reason why we probably won't see Schobel, Miller, De Andrade or Cory Lewis until 2026,
  3. DJL44
    It's up or out for most prospects. Either they debut on a pretty predictable timeline or they're not going to make it. Injuries can cause delays (Royce Lewis) but otherwise it's make progress or go home.
  4. DJL44
    I would expect Camargo in 2024. He's on the roster and catchers get injured. I also expect to see Severino next season.
  5. DJL44
    That would make him worth $20M for a whole season, which would make him the 3rd highest paid 2B in the league after Altuve and Semien. I like Polanco but he's not that good. The Twins upgraded on him by having Julien and Farmer share the position.
  6. DJL44
    They actually try to set replacement value at the level of someone you can get off the waiver wire or buy for $10,000 cash from another organization's minor leagues.
  7. DJL44
    The timing was entirely because Severino could have elected minor league free agency and Martin/ERod could not. It had nothing at all to do with the front offices' opinion of their future value.
  8. DJL44
    Neither. Add someone better than either of them. I'd also like them to upgrade some of their marginal pitchers (Balazovic, Henriquez, etc)
  9. DJL44
    It's laughable to call Solano or Taylor "expensive" - they were paid like backups. Gray cost the most but he also provided 3x that value. Gallo was only "expensive" relative to his production. The Twins are going to be fortunate that most of their young depth is already in AAA and ready to contribute if needed. Emmanuel Rodriguez is the only player on the 40 man roster who is very unlikely to get called up in 2024. There are also several young players with AAA experience not on the 40 man roster who could help.
  10. DJL44
    The Dodgers also match up with the Twins.
  11. DJL44
    Maybe they won't sell any tickets either! They'd better cut payroll to nothing in case nobody attends games in person!
  12. DJL44
    I agree with this one. He seems to have some upside and being lefthanded never hurts a pitcher. He could be a good value and at worst would probably fit into the bullpen. Japanese pitchers tend to make the jump better than position players.
  13. DJL44
    Andrelton Simmons had a very good major league career. That's actually a really high ceiling, one that Miller is quite unlikely to hit. Simmons was a productive minor league hitter and made his debut at age 22. Jack Wilson of the Pirates is a more likely ceiling.
  14. DJL44
    If you have a ton of average players that doesn't mean you'll win more than the average number of games. It just means when one guy gets hurt there isn't a dropoff in performance.
  15. DJL44
    The leaguewide strikeout rate is 10% higher in 2023 than it was in 2014 which makes Severino's strikeouts pretty much the same relative to league as Sano. From watching a few Saints games it appears Severino is a better fielder than Sano at both 3B and 1B. Severino will play in AAA and wait for his chance to contribute. That's good depth to have.
  16. DJL44
    and Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer and potentially the next Willi Castro in free agency
  17. DJL44
    Quite often that player is Jorge Polanco. I don't think he's worth $10M for a half season of games and that's why I'd trade him.
  18. DJL44
    Lee, Walker and Lewis have plenty of power.
  19. DJL44
    That would only be true if every chance had exactly the same run value. Missing an infield grounder usually turns into a single and at worst screws up a double play but missing a fly ball can lead to a double or a triple. Catching a ball over the CF fence turns a HR into an out - that's a savings over 1 run (value of HR + value of out) on one play. Robbing a HR has to be worth as much as hitting one or the ledger doesn't balance.
  20. DJL44
    I'm sure they have an estimate for their TV contract. They don't know final 2024 in-person attendance numbers yet but that won't stop them from making an estimate.
  21. DJL44
    RF at Target Field is about half the size of Comerica Park.
  22. DJL44
    Yes, because he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last two months of the season. When a pitcher goes from "good" to "godawful" that quick there's a 90% chance of an underlying injury. I wouldn't give him anything more than a minor league deal.
  23. DJL44
    Except catchers, they handle the ball FAR more often on defense than on offense.
  24. DJL44
    Yeah, but if Giolito fizzles those losses in April and May (and possibly longer, see Joey Gallo) count in the standings. The Twins should not be acting like a 4th place team trying to catch lightning in a bottle. No scholarships for bad veteran pitchers. I still think Maeda is worth $20M more than Giolito for 2024.
  25. DJL44
    Eduardo Rodriguez has some family issues that led to him rejecting a trade to the Dodgers. I have no idea where he wants to play but it won't be just money making the determination. I think his family is based in Miami.
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