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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    There is no future development benefit from the 5 guys I mentioned. I'm fine if they want to play Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez. Those guys might get better with the investment of playing time. Michael Helman and Mickey Gasper offer no such benefit. 29-year-old AAA guys just don't turn into good major leaguers. I can't think of anyone besides Casey Blake who amounted to anything. Those are 1 in a thousand odds. Also - crappy vet does NOT have to stay with the team all season. Other teams have no trouble releasing veterans who aren't performing. I have no idea why the Twins have this paralyzing fear about releasing waiver-wire caliber veteran players. Here is where scarcity matters. Paddack is blocking pitchers in AAA who are probably better than him. He's one of the crappy veterans on this roster who is blocking the interesting rookies. However, there are many other teams who don't have 5 interesting starting pitcher prospects in AAA who would be happy to have Chris Paddack on their roster. He's not worth $7.5M to the Twins but several pitchers who are just about as good as him have signed for that much (or more) this offseason as free agents. It makes a lot of sense to reallocate the $7.5M away from pitching (where they have interesting rookies to try in AAA) to hitting (where they don't).
  2. DJL44
    Margot is no longer on the roster. He doesn't save them any money in 2025. Vazquez is on the roster because he can play catcher. I am 100% in favor of taking the $5M they have plus the $7.5M they can save by dumping Paddack for nothing and using that $12.5M to add a player (or two) who will be worth a damn so they don't have to give hundreds of plate appearances to their AAA depth players.
  3. DJL44
    Because Lewis at 1B and Miranda at 3B is worse defensively than Miranda at 1B and Lewis at 3B. As I look over the options, I become more convinced that Willi Castro as the everyday 2B is the best solution.
  4. DJL44
    Do you want a list of all the potential free agent players they could have signed instead of Margot who were better than Margot? It's really long so I'd rather avoid making it. That's what I want them to do - sign someone decent. Crappy veteran vs crappy rookie is a false argument.
  5. DJL44
    I am also wondering. They have to pick one of them. I suppose they can just rotate and play a different one each day, but they're still guaranteed to split 650 plate appearances between them. It's more likely that those 5 guys share 1500 total plate appearances. All it takes is one position player on the injured list and they're forced to play one of those 5 guys. There is ALWAYS someone on the injured list. Steamer Projections are out for each player Gasper .247/.343/.372 715 OPS Julien .222/.332/.365 697 OPS Martin .246/.339/.345 684 OPS Keirsey .237/.294/.358 652 OPS Helman .221/.286/.355 641 OPS Keirsey is the only one who can really play defense. Why do people want to "let these guys play" when the most likely outcome is 1500 PAs below 700 OPS and below average defense? They could go with Keaschall and Rodriguez instead. The outcome for 2025 isn't likely to be any better but at least they would be developing someone who could contribute in the future. OR they could use the resources they have to get someone who can put up an OPS > 750 or someone with a 700 OPS who can play premium defense. That's a 2 WAR improvement for this roster at a very low price.
  6. DJL44
    One of those "The roof is leaking so we should burn down the house" arguments. They do serve a purpose: AAA depth. That's a real need. MLB players who are free agents usually don't have options remaining. They can't be AAA depth. The problem is one of those 5 guys is currently GUARANTEED a spot in the starting lineup. That's how little depth there is for position players on the 40-man roster. They should absolutely be looking to add another position player to the roster. They should try to trade Paddack for another one. There should be no worries about "blocking" anyone.
  7. DJL44
    Mickey Gasper is your leadoff hitter? Ugh. First off, he's 29 years old (turns 30 in October), which means he's almost certainly peaked offensively and is likely to get worse defensively. For reference, Manny Margot was 29 last year. The projection systems are spitting out a .240/.340/.360 batting line for 2025. He's below average defensively at any position other than 1B. He's a below average runner. This kind of player is not an MLB leadoff hitter unless you're an expansion team. If they're going to spend those playing time resources on a player, they're better off seeing if Julien can bounce back.
  8. DJL44
    Somebody needs to block the playing time of Michael Helman, Eddie Julien, Austin Martin, Mickey Gasper and Dashawn Keirsey. Those are AAA depth players, not MLB-caliber starters.
  9. DJL44
    Ah, the famous our garbage players we don't want for your ace pitcher trade. I'm sure they'll go for that.
  10. DJL44
    I would much rather have Lewis at 2B and Julien at 1B (or the bench)
  11. DJL44
    Paddack has negative worth to the Twins. The kids in AAA are probably better. Trading him is addition by subtraction.
  12. DJL44
    They haven't been particularly adept at picking over the leftovers. This year there seems to be a lot of players available in February who can help. Perhaps having an open roster spot will allow them to grab a couple useful players who want to avoid a minor league contract.
  13. DJL44
    Not to mention the "regional" approach makes no sense in our global world. 100% sharing of broadcasting money (video and audio). 0% sharing of in-stadium attendance-based revenue (tickets, concessions, parking). That's the way to incentivize teams to try to put fans in the seats.
  14. DJL44
    If you want Miller back you'll be able to draft him in the Rule 5 draft next December. He won't be protected.
  15. DJL44
    It is important to realize that ZIPS regresses projections to the mean. It assumes that if a player is in MLB that they are good enough to contribute and will rarely predict people to have a negative WAR. Of course, in reality, negative WAR contributors happen all the time.
  16. DJL44
    Umm, no. Larnach and Wallner in the OF please.
  17. DJL44
    It may be as simple as this Vanderbilt coaches: "He's fast, let's put him in the outfield" "He has no instincts, let's try him in the infield" "He's even worse there, move him back to the outfield where he won't do as much damage" Toronto coaches: "He can't read fly balls, better try to develop him as an infielder" "He sucks on defense, try to trade him before anyone else figures it out" MN coaches: "Let's see if he can play SS, he's failed everywhere else" (I've got nothing on this one) "He's not going to be a good enough hitter to hold down a corner OF spot, he's going to need to know more than one position to be a bench player. Let's develop him as a utility player."
  18. DJL44
    For the low, low price of $10.7M
  19. DJL44
    A little more than one season of Berrios is all the Twins traded away, a well-paid season in his last year of arbitration. He would have walked as a free agent after that.
  20. DJL44
    Is this team developing rookies or competing for a pennant? Giving a person reps hoping they turn into a better player is what non-contenders do. Better yet, that's what AAA is for. The Twins are placing several bad bets on players who have low upside even if the bet pays off. High risk, low reward.
  21. DJL44
    They could probably re-brand to TwinsMonthly during the offseason and we wouldn't notice.
  22. DJL44
    You mean the team that finished in 4th place and then lost Kepler and Santana to free agency?
  23. DJL44
    TC Bear and the front office traditionally hibernate from the end of the World Series until just before TwinsFest.
  24. DJL44
    Translating the comments on Brock Stewart "He's a 34-year-old pitcher with a history of shoulder injuries. His arm could fall off loading his truck in the Home Depot parking lot. If he pitches at all this season, we'll be thrilled."
  25. DJL44
    Billy Wagner got 10% on his first attempt. Guess he was a lost cause, we should probably disallow anyone who voted for him this year from ever voting again. Andruw Jones started at 7.3% and now he's on the verge of induction. One-and-done candidates who should definitely be in the Hall of Fame: Johan Santana, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Bill Freehan, David Cone, Kevin Brown, Bret Saberhagen, Rick Reuschel, Reggie Smith Close enough that they deserved a 2nd ballot: Dwight Gooden, Frank Tanana, Willie Randolph, Buddy Bell Ted Simmons was snubbed by the writers but managed to get the Era Committee's attention Largest increases from debut to make Hall of Fame
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