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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    The question is what number are they currently using in their budget? It's likely very conservative. There is a decent chance the amount of available dollars could jump a bit. Could that amount combined with the Polanco savings land a decent SP? Would they flip DeSclafani if that happened?
  2. Major League Ready
    The optimist in me looks at the potential if Alcala, Staumont, and Topa perform to their abilities. We have a shot at the best BP we have had in a long time.
  3. Major League Ready
    If the Pohlads or any other team believed this financial assumption, they would invest accordingly. They employee highly qualified financial specialists to assist in these decisions. Your position assumes they are ignoring the opportunity to make more money. That's not exactly consistent with the operating practices of any owner in the league. In general, the owners, and the people they employ have considerably more expertise and experience in this type of assessment than the average baseball fan. The odds are not in favor of the fans having a better grip on ROI and I doubt they are foregoing the opportunity to make more money in an attempt to put an inferior product on the field.
  4. Major League Ready
    It’s not this simple. Have you not read any of the articles both before and after the trade that outlined the numerous aspects of why Polanco should be traded and why this was a good trade for the Twins? Are you ignoring all these things that have been written or are you assuming that all of these media people and the FO lack your understanding of the situation? To your other point about platooning Farmer and Julien, that platoon does not take up a roster like some platoons would. Farmer is there to back-up multiple IF positions. He would be on the roster in that role regardless. The fact that he hits LHP very well allows for an expanded role which includes platooning. Again, just not as simple as you want to believe.
  5. Major League Ready
    Did you also hear that there are teams that generate $200M or $300M or even 400M more in revenue? So, do you somehow not understand that this incremental revenue allows these teams are able to address this need through free agency? The only other possibility is that you fully understand this exceptionally simplistic concept but made the statement anyway.
  6. Major League Ready
    I meant in general as opposed to specifically what you were saying but I did not articulate that very well.
  7. Major League Ready
    I think we can agree that there are a lot of teams that need this type of SP. If what you suggest is true, the front offices of all of the teams apparently don't understand the value proposition / asset management and risk mitigation principles you have cited because none of these SPs have been traded.
  8. Major League Ready
    Isn't this guy is being sold short just a little. He had 4 season with an ERA from 3.17-4.05. Why are so many people portraying him as the bottom rung? Yes, he was not great last year but he was also coming off a major injury. Is it that much of a stretch to believe he could deliver an ERA around 4.00 if he is healthy?
  9. Major League Ready
    We just disagree on this one. If we agree that a playoff caliber SP is not the difference in them making the playoffs, and we further agree that they have a lot of question marks, then leveraging the future before it is necessary to expend that capital is horrible asset management. The authority to make such decisions is taken from management with this sort of disregard for risk mitigation in mt experience. The ask on available SPs has negated team's desire for trade for top at SPs this off-season. Teams have been unwilling to pay the ask for SPs like Burns and Cease. Those guys will be available at the deadline. Has anyone traded for a font line starter this off-season? Do you think more or less "playoff caliber" SPs will be traded at the deadline?
  10. Major League Ready
    Just to support your point.., They will have 11 arbitration eligible players next year. Plus, Lopez will be getting a raise of $13.5M. However, if they get a decent TV deal, there will still be room. Kepler's salary comes off and they just might try to move Vazquez or at least part of his salary if Camargo does well. If they could move his salary, they would only be at around $110-115M with arbitration (est) raises depending on how salary they would have to eat to move Vazquez.. The capacity is there for the right player.
  11. Major League Ready
    Why would a 2 month rental cost more than an entire season? Waiting until the deadline won't cost them making the playoffs. If it does, the team is not worthy of the type expending the type of prospect capital to get a playoff caliber SP. Waiting until the deadline is a risk reduction strategy which makes sense given the number of question marks for this team. Why pay the cost until you know the investment makes sense given we don't need it until August / October? Now, if they decide to expand the payroll to allow the acquisition of a good SP, sign me up.
  12. Major League Ready
    Do the rangers get to the WS without Jordan Montgomery? I doubt it. Just saying waiting until the trade deadline is an option.
  13. Major League Ready
    That's a mighty optimistic set of assumptions. Even if 1,2, and 4 come true, they still could use an OFer that is great against LHP. Martin could definitely fill that role, but he is the only in house option with perhaps the exception of Anthony Prato. They gave him some games in LF so he might be an option as well. Castro / Farmer and Vazquez are locks for bench roles. Someone that can mash LHP and play 1B/LF would fit in great.
  14. Major League Ready
    Actually, Lewis was significantly better than Polanco and five other guys were more productive in the 2nd half. (see below). He was slightly better than Castro in the 2nd half last year so the statement that Lewis and Polanco were responsible for the 2nd half turnaround is not accurate. OPS wRC+
  15. Major League Ready
    It would really help to understand what they might do next if we knew how they felt about DeSclafani. If they think he is healthy and could perform like he did in 2021, they obviously want to keep him. It is possible they see him as a trade chip to get a RH bat. While trading DeSclafani would allow them to reallocate all of Polanco’s Salary, I doubt that happens. They can readdress a playoff pitcher at the deadline just as Texas did last year. Adam Duval seems like a fit until you look at his splits. He is no better against LHP. Jorge Soler mashed LHP and is above average against RHP but he is a liability in OF. He would mostly DH. Brandon Belt has been great 3 or the last 4 years. He is LH but is above average against LHP and mashes RHP. He will turn 36 but age has not slowed him down yet. The key here is can he be signed on a one year deal. I doubt it because he probably would have signed by now if he was willing to take a 1 year deal. JD Marinez hits both lefties and righties. Obviously, he is strictly a DH at this point. The biggest sticking point might be that he will turn 37 this year and is likely looking for 2-3 years after having a good year in 2023.
  16. Major League Ready
    I think you need put DeSclafani’s past performance in context He was injured all of 2022 and pitchers quite often don’t perform at full potential the first year back from a major injury. He produced 3 fWAR / 4.3 bWAR in 2021 and ranked 41st in terms of WAR in 2021. That’s far from a 5 and he had 4 seasons with an ERA from 3.17-4.05. I think we would be just fine in he produced an ERA of 4.00 this year. Where Varland is concerned, He might be as likely to perform as DeSclafani but starting DeSclafani and putting Varland in the pen or even starting him in STP improves the team. Varland either improves the BP or gives us much needed pitching depth.
  17. Major League Ready
    For starters, you are not even responding to what I posted, and this is just petty. You find an irrelevant aspect rather than focus on the metritis aspect of the trade or you don't understand the merit. I said history will support the assertion that this type of trade is how bottom half teams have succeeded. You have focused only on the major league talent, ignored, the prospects, and ignored the fact they added major league on a budget. The fact that the major league talent is older is not relevant. The relevant aspects of the strategy they employed are that they .... Traded from excess. Traded a player with two years of control who had provided a great deal of value. Received what would project to be far more total value than he could provide. (See ESPN and Fangraphs) They also got some shorter-term assets in positions of need making up for present value lost. Made room for a top prospect (Lee) Got a top 100 prospect Got another decent prospect with upside. Added SP for $4M that is the rough equivalent of SPs that signed for 3X that amount. Traded a player whose trade value was higher than keeping him because he had been replaced as a starter. This kind of creativity in acquiring major talent and getting good future value is exactly how teams in the bottom half of revenue construct a successful roster. There is none so blind as those who will not see and you just don't want to see.
  18. Major League Ready
    Which measure of defensive WAR are you using?
  19. Major League Ready
    Thanks Mike! Good to see another objective opinion. ESPN had a similar take and now Fangraphs. This quote makes their position quite clear. "The Twins just get a straight A" and I’m giving the Mariners a standalone C- but a contingent B+. They traded a lot to get Polanco" It might dampen the negative comments here, but I doubt it will change people's minds.
  20. Major League Ready
    Clearly, you have it figured out. The FO is incompetent. The people at ESP who gave the twins a much better grade than the mariners are also clueless. I will take solace in knowing my opinion is shared by ESPN and the front office, all of the writers who were of the opinion that trading Polanco was the obvious move for the Twins. Fangraphs has now chimed in as well. Do you want to soften your position?
  21. Major League Ready
    They can sign JD or Belt or Soler and get a better DH. They would also be playing the inferior player any game he starts over Lewis or Julien vs RHP or Farmer against LHP and they probably give up nothing with Castro vs RHP given his superior defense and base running. So, electing to play him anytime Lewis / Julien are healthy is poor management. Making room for Lee also enters into the equation but the equation favors trading him even if Lee was not in the picture. The net of it is that Polanco's salary could pay for a DH, we get a good RP with 3 years of control and a decent SP for $4M plus a top 100 prospect and another fairly decent pitching prospect. This type of roster management is by far the most effective way for a team in the bottom half of revenue to sustain success and history supports this assertion.
  22. Major League Ready
    I am not sure if you are serious. They would have never traded him if this was remotely true. Lewis plays 140+ games if he is healthy. Julien starts against every RHP if he is healthy and Farmer is the better replacement against LHP. The opportunity for him to start was minimal because we lose nothing if Julien and Lewis are healthy. That's why they traded him. Several national writers said the same thing long before they traded him so are they wrong as well as the FO?
  23. Major League Ready
    You never answered my question. How many starts does Polanco get if Lewis and Julien are healthy, given Farmer is the better option against LHP? Injury depth should be considered but is depth a bigger problem in SP or 2B?
  24. Major League Ready
    How many games would Polanco have started if Julien and Lewis are healthy? Farmer is a considerably better option on both sides of the ball against LHP so if the days off for Julien are against LHP we gain by giving farmer those starts. Polanco is only the two-hole hitter of Julien or Lewis are injured. We also have Castro who had an 801 OPS vs RHP while Polanco was slightly better at .823. Of course, Castro adds better defense and base running. It's a reasonable argument to say the twins are better with Farmer than Polanco. Add a good RP and SP depth and it's reasonable to say this roster construction will yield better results, especially if they add another RH bat or SP as part of the overall plan.
  25. Major League Ready
    You have a point. There is no doubt that the best chances of winning the WS would be trade every good prospect we have. Push all the chips in and the odds of winning the WS no doubt goes up if you have the core in place where these additions push the team over the top. if we were lucky, we might get to close to level of Atlanta and LA but I doubt it. The odds of being really horrible for a very long time are considerably higher than winning the WS with this approach. Where KC is concerned. Trading for established players was a very small part of building that championship team. Shields was gone by the time they won the WS. The only piece that KC that impacted their WS win was Wade Davis and that was a very fortunate side effect of the Shields trade. By far more important trade was when they traded away a very good established player (Greinke) for prospects, Cain and Escobar. That team was good because they collected very high draft picks for several years as a result of absolutely sucking. So, to say they won the WS because they traded away top prospects is a real stretch. I watch 120 games/year. The choice between increasing the odds of winning a World Series and watching a good team vs a horrible team for a decade or two is not even remotely close for me. Fans are going to differ on this choice and that's fine, but I don't want to watch a crappy team year after year.
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