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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I don't want to debate the multitude of things brought up here. My only question was how much revenue went down from last year. I seriously doubt they budgeted based on getting 85-90% of the previous TV deal and You ignored the $30M of BAM. It would have been quite reasonable had they forecasted $50M less in revenue. Contrary to popular belief, that $50M is not covered by reducing revenue by $25M.
  2. Major League Ready
    Thanks for bringing this to our attention. It's always fun to see this kind of stuff. It would make the Arraez trade look really great if Chourio turned out to be an above average player.
  3. Major League Ready
    How much do you think they are pocketing? In other words, how much did revenue go down as compared to payroll?
  4. Major League Ready
    Had they said this .... The reaction here would have been they are liars. They just are not willing to spend the money. They are not serious about winning. They are greedy, etc. or the ever popular why can't they just be honest and say they are unwilling to spend what it takes to get top talent. They were completely transparent and that was not acceptable for some reason.
  5. Major League Ready
    Does anyone believe Corey Provus meant to mislead fans? Who are “the others in the organization” that made this claim? Is Corey Provus a member of Twin’s management? No. He is a member of the media making a prediction he thought to be true. Would we be calling him a liar if he had he said he was sure Kepler would be traded? What really throws me is that the writers here have consistently portrayed the reduction in TV revenue as the only reason for a payroll reduction while withholding the fact that the Twin’s revenue would also go down by $30M (BAM money). I recognize the FO never specifically stated that BAM money contributed to a record payroll in 2023 but I bet these same writers would have recognized it if the BAM payment was this year. At first, I thought writers and posters were aware of the BAM money but after bringing it up a half dozen times it would appear that the writers and posters who want to cling to this negative narrative are ignoring facts that get in the way which implies the intent to mislead. Ironically, the twins FO was criticized for being too transparent! BTW, if anyone is willing to look at what happen in an objective way, they did not set the budget believing they would lose all of the TV revenue which was the way many portrayed this situation. They were losing $30M in BAM for certain. Had they anticipated no TV revenue they would have had an $85M reduction in revenue and they would have cut the budget far more than they did.
  6. Major League Ready
    I am curious who they are. Give us examples that are not a one year anomaly. Show us other teams spending consistently spending a larger portion of their revenue on payroll. It would be great to see some supporting documentation when you make a statement as if it's fact. The estimates that I have seen over the years always has the twins in the bottom 1/3 or even 1/4 in terms of net profit. Which teams are operating at break even on even a semi-regular basis and which teams are operating at a loss? I have spent quite a bit of time researching this and have never seen any indication of what you claim.
  7. Major League Ready
    The financial speculation is so often misconstrued that I took a moment to calculate the amount of reduction based on normal business practices. Here is how the math works. Some assumptions are necessary. They are as follows. Payroll was 50% of revenue in 2023. Therefore revenue was $310M. We know this would be quite high without the BAM money but looks about right with it. The next assumption is that TV revenue only goes down by $15M and the BAM revenue of $30M. I assumed a 12% profit and backed into operating costs which include every other employee, piece of equipment, travel, offices, etc. I have only seen a couple of articles every that attempted to define operating cost as a percentage of revenue but those articles pegged the percentage at 30-35%. I have backed into this calculation based on Forbes and other articles a number of times and the number has always come out close to the same for the Twins. Of course it would be likely to be less for the highest revenue teams. The numbers reflect a scenario where the team makes less profit but the same percentage. The idea is to show what level of payroll would be required to maintain not the same amount of profit but the same net percentage which is generally how profit levels are targeted in any business. These numbers/calculations will illustrate why you can't simply reduce payroll by 50% of the revenue reduction.
  8. Major League Ready
    I can't imagine Bellinger taking a 1 year deal. If he falls back to 2021-22 levels or even league average his market value will be a fraction of what it is today. He is going wherever he gets the most guaranteed money. Even if he would, the FO was clear and transparent about reducing payroll so it's just not realistic.
  9. Major League Ready
    Montgomery or Bellinger would not sign a 1 year deal. It would be a 3 year deal like Correa signed. If Bellinger performs like he did in 2021-2022 he is not going anywhere. We would have $121M in our top 6 paid players in 2025. Obviously, the same is true of Montgomery if he gets hurt. Might even be true if he has a mediocre year.
  10. Major League Ready
    The Rangers starting pitching was not nearly as good as the Twins last year. The deadline pick-up of Montgomery was huge for them. The Royal's WS win in 15 was the product of a very strong BP. I prefer they win vs practice a given type of roster construction but you should follow whatever team you like.
  11. Major League Ready
    Very good point. Let me add that when a CFO or anyone responsible for a P&L defines payroll, it's not just salary. It's salary and benefits. Spotrac's estimate for 2024 benefits is $17M. Now, it's all together possible that whoever started this measure is not aware of how these things are defined in Corporate America but we really don't know what they are including when they say 50%.
  12. Major League Ready
    Now this is a fair and accurate representation of the revenue picture. The point was independent of if they should take a hit or not. It was that article after article completely ignored an obvious fact. There are only two possibilities, the people writing these articles are uninformed or intentionally misleading. As fans of course we want them to spend more and I doubt that's much different any year, There is a call to spend more every year. The claim is the same that additional spending will put us over the top. This team would not be even close to the teams favored to win the WS if they spent another $30M. $30M got us 1.1 WAR out of Correa and we can also talk about the numerous Rodon type failures so it's far from certainty additional spending would "put us over the top". I wish they didn't care about money too but when is this ever the case. We seem to accept quite readily with players that it's a business and we expect and even cheer them in their pursuit of maximizing their income. Yet, our expectation of business owners is that they do not treat their business as a business. It's just not a very realistic expectation and it's being done parallel to people complaining about paying $20/month for coverage.
  13. Major League Ready
    You are in a very small minority that acknowledged the BAM revenue. This is not a big deal in the larger scheme of things. The league did a great job of making the game more watchable. Now they need to make it available. What I find implausible is the notion passed around here that the failure to achieve wider availability is the product of lack of effort, incompetence or just generally wanting to get it done. That's just silly. I had commented months ago I was very hopeful that the whole fiasco is a great opportunity and I believe that's still the case. There is so much we simply don't know. It is quite likely that getting to a distribution model they want will take some time. It's hard enough to navigate the changes in a well-established model with 20 year contracts, Throw in bankruptcy courts and last minute investors, etc and it's just often not possible to implement change as quickly as it's needed. I really doubt the problem is incompetence or lack of desire as is often suggested by frustrated fans.
  14. Major League Ready
    I think it is accurate to say the drop in TV revenue was reported as the reason for the drop in payroll. That does not make it an accurate representation. Without a doubt, you gents know revenue was also reduced by an additional $30M in BAM revenue. No doubt it's makes for a more popular position to ignore this fact but those dollars spend the same way TV revenue spends and those dollars contributed to record spending last year.
  15. Major League Ready
    I am rather indifferent to this signing. However, my belief (hope) is that Kirilloff will get most of the starts against RHP. Santana was not bad the last two years against LHP. His wRC+ against lefties last year was 118 and it was 133 in 2022. Hopefully Rocco can utilize him accordingly. My guess is they wanted a 1 year deal so they didn't have to rely on Miranda or Severino but have the option to insert them if they make a strong case. That's not a problem unless they refuse to cut bait if Santana looks washed up.
  16. Major League Ready
    If they put him on today, he would only be unavailable for the 1st 2 weeks of the season.
  17. Major League Ready
    If the rumors about Lorenzen / Syndergaard are true, something has to give. One of them or DeSclafani needs to pitch out of the BP or in a piggyback role. Using Paddack and one of these guys in a piggyback role makes sense.
  18. Major League Ready
    Which "everyday" position player would you have made into a bench player?
  19. Major League Ready
    It's an interesting situation. I was thinking none of them would be on the opening day roster unless one of them looked fantastic in spring training. Winder and Sands need to prove they belong and Staumont needs to prove he is healthy and as you said able to throw strikes. What about Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Topa / Okert / Jackson / Alcala to begin the season? Jackson is nothing special but they signed him to a big league contract and he does not have any options.
  20. Major League Ready
    Winder and Sands also have an option remaining so there would be no need to roster them based on options Why one of them above Staumont?
  21. Major League Ready
    I am going to take a leap and say they still sign another starter.
  22. Major League Ready
    You forgot Martin, Doc. He is the guy I am really pulling for because it would be a huge plus if he steps up while we are waiting for E-Rod and others to find their way to the show. Especially with the need to back-up Buck. Lee and Martin making their way to the ML level impacts the other roster spots as well. Farmer's departure would be covered. They could go to a system like Chpettit19 suggested where Lee/Lewis/Correa/Julien and Kirilloff play everyday with one of them DHing. If one is injured, they have an "extra" infielder. That's especially effective with Castro and Martin in utility roles. Holy crap that's a deep team with great positional flexibility.
  23. Major League Ready
    E-Rod hits left handed. E-Rod video
  24. Major League Ready
    I doubt the Twins would listen to the voice of a 16 game stretch. This is not a SSS, it's tiny.
  25. Major League Ready
    A) There is no way in hell Montgomery is taking a one year deal. B) We don't know the net reduction in the TV deal given there is a court order expressly forbidding the publication of contract details. We know revenue went down my $30M (BAM) plus some portion of the TV contract. Best guess is a net reduction of $45-50M.
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