Major League Ready

I really hope they can find acceptable terms with Buxton. He is by far the most exciting player on the team. However, the risk needs to be addressed. Take out his first year because he debuted in June and also take out 2020 because of covid and he averages 80 games a year. He has only played over 100 games once. You can’t be a difference maker if you are not on the field. A mid-market team paying big guaranteed money to a risky player is by no means a no-brainer. We can take an indignant stance as fans because it’s very easy to ignore risk when you are not accountable. Just think about the list of high profile players with contracts that have really hurt their teams for years. It’s far from a no brainer and cost does matter.

It's just a WAG but I was thinking they could get someone to take on $12M/year. At that rate I don't want him on the books in 2023. Of course, that could be done at the deadline next year. I too believe the biggest impact going forward lies in the pitching prospects. If they establish two more SPs next year they could spend big on a top of the rotation SP. Berrios or better. Under this scenario, they could spend $30M on a SP and $15M on the BP and be at under $130M. That includes $20M/ year for Buxton

It is noteworthy that the current generation inherited their wealth. Let's hope they are bold with the $$ as a result. My guess is they might be even less prone to squander it because they most likely have been educated since birth on how to manage a fortune. The good news is this team is positioned much better than you would expect for a 90 loss team. They have 2 very good rookie SPs and the BP has been very good for the last couple months. They will get Rodgers and Kirilloff back. Add even one good free agent SP and a good SS and we will have a good team with the potential to get significantly better over the next couple years. IMO, An extra 10 or $20M spent on free agency won't be nearly as important as what we produce for pitching from the current crop of prospects. This group looks much deeper to me but maybe that's just optimism. Prioritize the $$ toward keeping Buxton and signing a SS and we will be in great shape by 2023. Move Donaldson and spend on a top SP and move up the timeline. That's the most practical path to contention as I see it but obviously there is more than one way to get there. It is feasible to spend $15M on a SS and $25M on a SP and $5M on the BP without moving Donaldson. Keeping Buxton would require we buyout Sano in 2023. That approach is around $130M. Maybe the Pohlad's would be willing to stretch to $140M. Some will say that we need to spend more on the BP but RP are bad investments and as I said earlier, our BP has been good for a couple months. Add Rodgers and one solid late inning guy and the BP won't be a problem.

The only way they get to $90M is if they get someone to take Donaldson. Assuming the other teams takes $15M of his salary, the Twins would be at around $81M if they cut Colome and did not spend a dime in free agency. This also assumes a major league minimum of $650K. I definitely do not see 90-100M as “equally likely”. There is also a microscopic probability they spend on the high end of the range you suggested ($160M). Anything can happen in sports but attendance and revenue is going to be down and they just had two very bad years. I have worked with many companies on alternative future state strategies and never has one ever opted for record spending with a forecast for declining revenue. Would any of us increase our spending with our income declining, especially when we took a revenue hit in the previous two years? Billionaires don't get to be billionaires by spending in this manner. The three biggest potential influences on budget will be …. Does the front office opt for a short-term or long-term approach? The long-term approach revolves around building a starting rotation from the numerous prospects that are near ready. In this scenario, they could aim to add at least 2 more starters from the farm to join Ober / Ryan during 2022. Then, use the financial flexibility gained from this approach to add a front of the rotation SP like Berrios in 2023. Of course, they could add the top piece this year and still pursue the same basic strategy. Can they trade Donaldson and do they want to. They may not want to if their approach is heavily focused on contending next year. They could also hold on to him until the deadline. I would prefer they trade him if possible and get Miranda up. Byron Buxton – If they can’t come to agreement and trade Buxton the focus for 2022 likely shifts to retooling over the course of the season for 2023. They can field a very good team and still take a long-term approach. Sign one good SP, one RP, and a SS. Chris Taylor fits nice into this approach. Move Donaldson and get Miranda some and eventually Martin some ML experience. Add two SP over the course of the year from our farm system. I would also trade Arraez if the return is right.

According to Fangraphs, Garlick has an option, Refsnyder does not. My guess is that Garlick and Rooker are on the 40 man next year. 2022 is not realistically a year in contention. Therefore, players like Rooker / Gordon / Jax / Garza will probably get an extended look in 2022. Jax might be in the pen or a stacked starter.

I could see this with the exception of Cave. No way do I see them keeping Cave. They need RH bats for the OF so Garlick or Refsnyder are much more likely top be retained. I would see Celestino or even Contreras before Cave.

Agree with everything here. However, according to Spot Trac their payroll was just over $131M in 2020. Perhaps more to the point, projected attendance is going to be down based on a poor 2021. They just had a couple of terrible seasons financially and the odds of them fielding a true contender in 2022 are very low. If I were Derek Falvey, I would not be inclined to present a plan to the Pohlad's for record spending in a year where we likely won't content and such a plan very likely produces a financial result around break-even or potentially a net loss. Would love it if the Pohlad's said here you go Derek, spend $150M but that's not going to happen. While unlikely, I would like to see them land a top SP for the long haul. Move Donaldson and they can extend Buxton and sign Chris Taylor. Solidify the rotation during the course of 2022 between Winder / Balazovic / Enlow / Duran . SWR etc. This would be a good team, not a true contender be we look very good by the start 2023.

They had one of the best players in the game for CF (Buxton). RF was taken by a proven player (Kepler). Not a superstar but certainly not a question mark. 3B (Donaldson) was taken by the most expensive FA addition in team history. Sano is not a question mark either. If they are question marks you better just blow up the whole team. Regardless, their top prospect was on the cusp of playing at the MLB level. Bringing in a free agent to block him instead of using the money elsewhere would be rather gross incompetence. You still are ignoring the far more critical premise that the team failure was far more influenced by pitching. The team would still have failed badly with Brantley. Therefore, Brantley was not part of the solution and assigning blame to this decision makes absolutely no sense.

So what would have been a realistic plan for pitching that would have kept them in contention? By realistic, I mean obtainable within the $130M they had to spend which was frankly more than I thought they would spend given Covid.

I don't even understand your point. Would signing Brantley have put us anywhere near contention? Should they have anticipated virtually every corner OFer they had getting injured? Perhaps more importantly, value (production/cost) not only matters when you have below average revenue team, it's essential to building a winner. This is not even debatable. The Yankees and Dodgers can literally spend 3X per WAR as compared to the Rays / Athletics and nearly 2X the twins. Pursuing strategies that do not recognize this FACT would be grossly incompetent. SO what should have they done? What pitching decisions should they have made? Should they have anticipated Carlos Rodon would go from a #5 to a Cy Young contender? 29 other teams did not seem to think he was worth more than the very modest $3M one year deal he got from CHW. We could have signed Odorizzi like so many here suggested. That would have had no impact. They could have traded away our future for Darvish and Snell which was also heavily supported here. That would have potentially been a true disaster depending on who they would have given up. It's easy to blame management if you assume options that did not exist or that performed well above expectations/projections.

While I agree developing prearb starter pitching is key to constructing a roster for a small/mid market team, I disagree with the strategy of building a BP via investing big money in RPs. Free agent RPs are the worst bet in baseball. They fail well over half the time and many of them don't just underperform, they perform at or below replacement level. There needs to be investment in the BP bust it needs to be measured. Use the money on a SS and/or invest in the best free agent SP you can convince to come here. Basically, follow the TB practices but use the incremental dollars we have to invest in keeping a player like Buxton and signing someone like Strohman / Rodon.

Is Rortvedt the next Drew Butera?

I thought about that last night. Cruz is certainly among the best FA acquisitions this team has ever made. Then, his parting gift is to bring back a really nice prospect that might be an impact player for another 6+ years.. Who knows, maybe two. Yes, thank you Nelson Cruz. I hope he is back as a coach one day.

I would add that Cruz is a great player but his ABs are better spent on giving prospects a shot the remainder of the this year. What he does or does not do for Tampa is not all that important in terms of judging this trade. It will be a good trade if Strotman becomes a decent BP arm. If Ryan becomes an average MLB pitcher, that's a great trade for us. Odorizzi gave us a couple good years for literally nothing in return. It's pretty crazy when a trade like this can't be acknowledged as successful.

They need to fill 4 spots next year. 3 if Ryan establishes a spot in the rotation. If he shows he can be relied upon to start and If they intend to use 2022 to develop pitching prospects, he could bridge the gap until additional prospects are ready. A reliable starter in his final year of arbitration to bridge the gap until a prospect pushes their way on to the team would be a nice asset. Filling one of those spots for roughly $3M leaves more budget for a front of the rotation SP or a SS.

I would hope they would wait until the end of the year to draft a “blueprint”. They are evaluating quite a few SP and RPs the rest of the way. Once that is done they will need to decide if they can realistically build a contender this off-season. I am not sure what that blueprint looks like but it looks unlikely to me. From there the blueprint takes shape based on how willing they are to allocate time at the big league level to prospects. Here is what I think that looks like. Position players - Start by trading Donaldson in the off-season and Miranda spends all or most of 2022 at the ML level. Martin still needs to prove he is ready. That might not be until June. I don't see Lewis here until 2023. They either go with a stop gap SS or give Palacios a chance. They could possibly trade Arraez for a SS that is blocked or a top pitching prospect if you can get it. Starting pitching – Sign a quality veteran for 2022 and beyond. He can lead and between him and Ober you have a start. Hopefully Ryan will establish himself over these last few weeks. This would be the idea year for a good bounce back candidate. They would get every chance here given the wide open rotation. The bounce back candidate or Dobnak or perhaps both get a shot at the start of the season. Prospects are shuffled in as they prove to be ready. I hope that includes Winder / Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / SWR and maybe Cole Sands. RP – Rogers / Duffey / Alcala / Minaya is a good start. There is nothing wrong with the way these guys have pitched of late. I would put Jax in the BP and see how that works. Thielbar / Columbe / Garza are serviceable. We need to add a good LH RP. Is this a formula to contend? Of course not but 500 is realistic. There is no good plan for building an entire SP staff capable of realistically contending in one off-season. However, they could position themselves to realistically contend in 2023. Get Cave and Simmons out of this lineup replaced with Kirilloff / Garlick or Larnach and a decent hitting SS and we have a good lineup. By the end of 2022, Ober / Ryan should be sufficiently seasoned. It’s reasonable that at least one of Winder / Duran / Balazovic / Canterino / Enlow / SWR gets established in 2022. Having moved Donaldson (partial salary) and declining Sano’s option we will have plenty of salary room to add a top SP via free agency. Perhaps Jose Berrios. Of course, they have to be willing to play here but establish the rest of the rotation with prearb guys will be a scenario we have not seen here in recent or even distant memory.

Yes, they should have found options that did not exist and spent money they did not have. Some here made a good call on Musgrove. The most popular FA option was Odorizzi. He has been mediocre at best. (.6 WAR) Lots of angst over not trading for Darvish and Snell. Darvish was good early but has given up 37 ER in his last 44 innings over 9 appearances. He will be 36 next year. Snell has been mediocre (4.31 ERA / 1.8 WAR and they give up a very good pitching prospect for him. He has already made it to the ML and has the same ERA as Snell and of course he is just getting his feet wet. He has a 60FV. The Rays also got Mejia in that tade along with a couple other prospects. Mejia is doing a good job as a part-time catcher. He has played in 70 games and produced 1.2 WAR. Bottom line is these moves that would have been very popular here would have done very little to improve the team in the short term and would have very likely hurt the team beyond this year. Snell or Darvish could have a big year next year but Snell is just being what Snell has been every year except the Cy Young award and putting trust in Darvish for a full season does not seem wise. I should add there was no support for Taijuan Walker. He was not high profile enough.

I was basically agreeing with you from a slightly different angle.

A. Are we trading Rogers / Duffey / Thielbar / Polanco / Kepler / Arraez / Garver / Donaldson and Sano. If not, how is this a rebuild? B. Many players care 1st about money and 2nd playing where they are comfortable. There are plenty of players with better track records than Buxton who stayed with a team because they simply preferred to stay. Players don't like their lives disrupted and a dollar in MN is the same as a dollar anywhere else, tax rates not withstanding.

Retooling for 1 year and a complete rebuild are two very different things. Pretending we can rebuild a complete rotation in one year is a good way to prolong the process.

I wish they would have gone with your pick. Carroll would be a great add to our farm system which could really use a legit CF prospect and he has 70 speed. I don't see why our OF depth should have played a factor when Carroll is obvious to stick in CF. Our depth was/is all corner OFers. Bryson Stott would have been a great pick too. He is already at AA and would probably be the most likely to stick at SS. The possibility of Scott and Miranda anchoring the left side for the next several years would be great. I sure hope Cavaco breaks out because the options picked right after him would likely have been part of the solution.

So what realistic plan constructs an entire starting rotation in one off-season. What mid-market team has ever even attempted to acquire 4 SPs capable of contending? The answer is there is no realistic plan to build a contending staff from nothing in one off-season, at least not for any team than perhaps the Yankees or Dodgers who could buy the SPs if there were that many available. The problem is not so much the plan but the concept of a $300M revenue team constructing a contending rotation from nothing in one off-season.

I am assuming you mean opening day of 2022. That would be relevant if we were counting on them to contribute to a contending team. The strategy of a mid market team producing a contending rotation in the off-season without counting on an absurd level of luck would be incompetent on the part of our FO. Any attempt is likely to perpetuate mediocrity or worse. So why manage the roster as if this is the goal. All of the prospects I mentioned have a reasonably good chance of being ready to pitch at the ML level at some point in 2022. If you don't believe ML experience is important, we should fill the rotation with established pitchers and let our prospects sit in AAA. That's sounds like a really good way to continue to be bad to me. Developing pitching is basically a prerequisite to contending for a mid or small market team so shouldn't our strategy facilitate that need?

What is competitive? A 500 team or a contender?

That's some backward wisdom. If you fill a spot, it's not open for a prospect. It's not complicated. This does not cause a problem If we contending. It does create a problem giving a prospect that is ready innings at the ML level. We are going to have four opening, three if they give Dobnak a shot so the question is how many spots do we need for the guys that will be ready. Guys that should or could be ready next year .... Balazovic / Ryan / Woods Richardson / Duran / Canterino / Enlow / Winder and Sands. That's 8 if you don't count Jax or Barnes. Is it a good idea to fill the rotation with Pineda types and fail to provide these guys the ML experience they need for this team to move forward. That's a good way to be a 500 team and prolong that level of play. This team's future is largely dependent on developing our SP prospects. Let's get on with it.