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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Obviously, he adds to the potential, but I was talking about moves that were about asset management and he does not fit into that category in the same way as the others. I guess we could call it asset management if they trade him at the deadline.
  2. Major League Ready
    Trading an all-star closer with one year of control for a set-up guy with two years of control and a high upside SP with 3 years of control is definitely asset management. When you trade a 36 year old superstar with injury concerns and highly probably decline with 21.75M owed next year and a 16M option or 8m buyout the following year, that’s probably asset management. When you add the fact the team’s top offense prospect plays the same position it becomes asset management, especially when you get an interim 3B in Urshela. He is a great place holder for Miranda and he can play other positions when Miranda takes over. Of course, he is also insurance if Miranda fals on his face. They also bought low on him. It’s certainly possible he could return to 2019/2020 form and be traded for value if that happens. Sanchez filled a hole. For all of these reasons, the Donaldson deal was great asset management. Now, could it work out that SOME combination of Paddack / Pagan / Urshela and Sanchez make us a better team this year vs Rodgers / Donaldson / Garver and Rortvedt? Sure, they are all players that have performed at high levels in the past. They managed to position the team for the future while building in some upside for this year. However, these deals were more about the future than the present.
  3. Major League Ready
    I find it astounding when fans don't understand it is essential to success for an organization with half of the Dodgers revenue to practice asset management. It's fanatical thinking with no regard for the realities of the requirements for mid-market vs large market teams. The twins have to produce in the neighborhood of 2X WAR per every dollar spent. It's a financial / mathematical certainty.
  4. Major League Ready
    It would be huge for this franchise if Lewis fulfills his potential as a SS. Let's be realistic. Correa is going to opt out. It would be great if they got a huge return for him at the deadline and Lewis takes over post deadline. I want to add "break-out at the MLB level catagory. Duran and Paddack stepping up could really change the fate of this franchise. My dream scenario is that Duran and Paddock are so ood this year that next year our starting rotation is Duran / Paddack / Gray / Winder / Ryan with Balazovic / Canterino and SWR knocking on the door.
  5. Major League Ready
    And if they seriously thought they had a legit shot at being a serious contender as opposed to a wildcard team hoping to get really hot against superior teams, they would have been delusional to think they were a serious contender. Therefore, they would have been incompetent to manage to that delusion. Fans can have this "we need to contend every year" mantra. Front offices need to manage the team's long-term interests. It's really easy to manage for the current year. Any team could just trade away the farm for the current year or two. You may have noticed teams don't operate this way. The Dodgers had numerous opportunities to elevate their teams but held on to their prospects. Maintaining success is far more difficult.
  6. Major League Ready
    You may not have noticed that my comments were directed at next year and beyond. They simply are not and never were going to be real contenders this year. Therefore, I am glad they did not pass up opportunities to improve the long-term outlook of the team for a long-shot of competing this year. I was offering a look at this off-season in the context of what they did to position the team for success beyond this year. I placed no value on Urshella and/or Sanchez. They can cut both. However, it would be great if Urshela gets back to anything close to his 2019 / 2020 seasons which would make this deal even better.
  7. Major League Ready
    I agree and I am hopeful. They could have a year like 2019 where everything comes together. That's always a possibility, the odds just are not great. If this was a rebuild Buxton and Polanco would have been traded. I view it as they are putting a team on the field that can make the playoffs but their emphasis remains building a pitching staff from within. I guess you could also say their asset management strategy emphasizes long-term value over current year just as the A's and Ray's practice.
  8. Major League Ready
    I would take Miranda next year and the $21.75M to spend elsewhere and it's not remotely close. It would not be close even if we did not have Miranda. I would take Arraez at 3B and the 21.75M next year too.
  9. Major League Ready
    Their actions have been clear since the trade deadline last year. They are focused on long-term success built around homegrown pitching or moves like trading 1 year of a RP (Rodgers) for 3 years of a SP. This should not be surprising given this is what the strategy Cleveland employed with great success. Adding Correa was not about going for it this year. There is an alternative of putting a good product on the field while building a contender. Correa is almost certainly gone next year but he will bring great prospects when they trade him at the deadline. (Two birds / one stone) The off-season resulted in adding Buxton for the next seven years, Paddack for 3 and Pagen for 2. They also shed Donaldson's 21.75M in 2023 and $16M in 2024 or the $8M buyout in 2024. This money can now be used on long-terms assets instead of a player highly likely to decline not to mention we have Miranda ready to replace him. So, the comparison is Donaldson vs Miranda (next year) plus $21.75M spent elsewhere. Of course, they also picked up a couple prospects. This team simply was not positioned to contend and I didn't ever get the impression they were going to attempt to build a true contender this year. That would have been incompetent. We need a couple of the prospects to step up this year but the outlook for 23 and beyond improved greatly this off-season.
  10. Major League Ready
    This relative merit of this deal depends on how much focus is put of 2022 vs 2023 and beyond. IMO, the goal of the front office was to put a decent product on the field in 2022 but they knew any chance at a true contender was a long shot. Plus, developing pitching internally is pretty much a prerequisite to any real shot at sustained success. They have used this as a guide since the start of the off-season and they have been opportunistic. Moving Rodgers and Donaldson is likely not good for 2022. However, they have had a great off-season in terms of 2023 and beyond. They signed Buxton and got Paddack for 3 years and Urshela / Pagen for 2 as well as a decent prospect in Henriquez I like the odds that Getting rid of Donaldson’s 21.75M in 2023 and $8M buyout will turn out to be advantageous. Then there is Carlos Correa. Great if he stays but also one heck of trade chip this summer if that ends up being the option taken. Of course, we also have the #8 pick this summer. We did not improve 2022 in my estimation but this off-season has been very good in terms of improving the future outlook, especially if Paddack reaches anything close to his ceiling.
  11. Major League Ready
    I had a similar thought but I just don't think we are going to see Bundy/Archer used in a typical starting role. We might see them used 3-4 innings per outing which would facilitate doing the same with Winder / Duran and others while they work their way to a more traditional role. Bundy is $4M and Archer's base pay is $2.75M. If they end up paying Archer significantly more, it's very likely it was a good move to bring him on. I just hope Bundy is good enough to trade him or bad enough to cut him.
  12. Major League Ready
    I am hoping Bundy is good enough we can get rid of him at the deadline and make more room for Winder / Balazovic.
  13. Major League Ready
    I was thinking the same thing which is why I would have been ok with the 5th spot being used to stack prospects. My guess is they were excited to see Archer's velo back so they signed him. Here is my hope. If Bundy or Archer suck, cut them. What are the odds of both being good? Point being cutting one or trading one of them by mid-year would create opportunity for the prospects. If we are so fortunate as to have them both rebound, and our other starters remain healthy, trade Bundy or Archer. Obviously, an injury does the same thing so I am hopeful they have ample opportunity to test those young arms. I would love to see Duran stick in the pen and graduate to the rotation next year or even later this year. he still has the highest ceiling of our pitching prospects, IMO.
  14. Major League Ready
    I agree but there are quite a few guys coming off next year. Dylan Bundy and Gary Sanchez are gone. If they pick up Archer's option that mean's he worked out very well. Carlos Correa is almost certainly gone. If Sanó stays it means he was a beast this year. I would think this year is Brent Rooker's last unless he steps up. One of Luis Arraez / Gio Urshela should be traded and Kenta Maeda is also a trade candidate. I bet 7 of those 9 are gone. Then, we also have Rodgers / Duffy and Smith as free agents. Obviously, they will need to replace these RPs but hopefully a couple internal candidates step up which would ease the 40 man burden. I would love to see Miranda take solid hold of 3B by July 1 which is why I say Arraez or Urshela or even both could be traded. That would be ideal. Gordon and Martin should be the bench players. Hopefully Celestino and Larnach grow into a role this year as well. Of course, all of these guys are already on the 40 man. We all know how huge it would be if two of Winder / Balazovic / Sands / Duran fill the Archer / Bundy roles. With a little luck we will be in decent shape where the 40 man is concerned. If all of this came together could we keep Correa? I doubt it but we can hope.
  15. Major League Ready
    I don't think any of these options are so compelling as to warrant exposing anyone. This is not a contending team. They could be a playoff team if everything comes together but adding Smeltzer of Faria is not valuable if everything else clicks. I Just don't see any non-40 man guys making the opening day lineup.
  16. Major League Ready
    If this is an accurate portrayal, what's the point of mortgaging the future to add a #2 or #3? That kind of pitching still has a meager chance of making the playoffs and then making a run. Also, have you noticed that no other team has been able to trade for the pitchers targeted here? Do you supposed all of those interested team's inaction might suggest Oakland has set an absurd price and are willing to wait for the deadline to move them?
  17. Major League Ready
    Veteran status does not make Bundy our #2 even if they were to start him after Gray. There is no way in hell we are going to see a position player pitch with a 28 man roster. When they cut down to 26, there will probably be 3 or 4 guys who can go multiple innings.
  18. Major League Ready
    If they only have 4 starters, they could have 4 guys that are hybrids (2-4 innings) and still have five 1 inning specialists. That model pretty easily gets you to 1460 innings which assumes a 500 road record and 40 extra innings. Two guys are stacked as the 5th starter and the other two as needed. Having those types of guys is a very effective way to avoid over using the BP. Winder might end up the 5th starter where he is typically only asked to go 4. Maybe they use an opener of someone like Jax stacked. I would much rather go with Winder / Jax instead of a mediocre vet.
  19. Major League Ready
    The appropriate measure would be return on equity which is valuation less debt or approximately 1.1B in equity. Return on equity without the growth (just profit) on valuation is around 3%. This makes me wonder if they could really get 1.39B.
  20. Major League Ready
    The Rays success and the way pitchers have been used in the playoffs suggests the Twins and many other teams are not going to have the traditional 5 man rotation. Guys like Jax are going to be stacked or asked to pitch 2-3 innings when someone has a short start. I could see them using Cotton / Smeltzer / Thorpe and even Alcala in this type of role. All of the prospects could also enter the big leagues in a similar role.
  21. Major League Ready
    If they were willing to spend at that level, I would much prefer Urshela plus the nearly $13m difference in salaries from this deal spent on pitching. That’s 2 pretty darn good BP arms or a SP in trade. Urshela had a bad year last year but his wRC+ was almost identical (1 pt higher) than Donaldson in 2019 and 2020. He is also a better defender at this point in their careers and not as much of an injury risk not to mention the likelihood of decline. This only gets worse in 2023 and they have a 16M option for 2024 with an 8M buyout. I will take Urshela, the money to use elsewhere, and the risk mitigation all day long.
  22. Major League Ready
    No doubt GMs all prove themselves along the way to getting the top jobs. Most people don't start down a career path with an MLB team that could eventually lead to a GM job, so it’s fair to say that access to such jobs is extremely limited. It’s also fair to say that the people who could most likely handle the job have achieved similar positions in other industries. Access or getting these jobs is the same everywhere. People are given those jobs with the requisite education, experience, and past performance that indicates they should have said job. How many of the people who always assume incompetence on the part of the FO have actually been responsible for a $300M P&L and/or negotiated 8 & 9 figure contracts in other industries. Andrew Friedman earned a B.S. in management with a concentration in finance at Tulane. He went on to be an analyst with Bear Stearns from 1999–2002, and then was an associate at MidMark Capital, a private equity firm from 2002-04. Do you suppose he knows a little more about asset management than 99% of baseball fans? Before Jeff Lunhow joined the Astros he earned dual degrees from the University of Pennsylvania in economics and engineering. He earned an MBA from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University. He then worked as an engineer, management consultant, and technology entrepreneur. He went on to work for McKinsey and Company, a global management consulting firm, for five years and then founded and served as president and chief operating officer of Archetype Solutions. It would be fair to say others with similar credentials could join a MLB team in the front office and handle the job.
  23. Major League Ready
    I would not use permanent ink to write that lineup. There will be a couple additions.
  24. Major League Ready
    Are there any reports of us flipping Snachez or is this speculation?
  25. Major League Ready
    Calling the Cruz trade a salary dump is extremely simplistic thinking. Trading a rental in a 90+ loss season for a good pitching prospect is a great trade.
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