clone52

A few comments. Joe Ryan was shelled in his May start against Houston, but that wasn't long after his first start against Houston where he had 10 K's. ERA looked bad due to a Grand Slam, but overall he was really good. Houston seeing him a 2nd time in short order probably helped them pick things up. Now a third time in a season might be bad, but the layoff might be long enough to negate that. Maeda has a slightly better track record against Houston, but not by much. Ober hasn't faced Houston this year, but has not done well against them. I think I'd go with Joe Ryan in game 1, but have him on a short leash and bring in Maeda if he blows up early. Louie Varland has been fantastic against Houston. I think Game 4 is the real question. There I think I would piggyback Maeda/Ober. The roster is the question. Looking things up, Tucker has mashed righties and lefties about the same this year and in his career. Alvaraz has even splits in his career, but has been super great against righties this year. You also have most of the bullpen with moderate success against the two of them. Combined the two of them are 0-5 against Jax, 1-6 against Pagan, 0-5 against Varland. Tucker is 0-3 against Paddack. Neither player has ever seen Brock Stewart. With all of that and Thielbar, I think you could leave Funderburk off the roster.

I thought Jeffers had closed the gap defensively, but he is well behind in most if not all defensive metrics, so that is a really good point. Matchups with the pitchers might come into play. For whatever reason, Lopez has been far better with Jeffers behind the plate than with Vasquez. Hitters have a .604 OPS with Jeffers and a .736 OPS with Vasquez. Gray is pretty similar. Jeffers has never faced Gausman, but is 0-5 with 4 K's against Berrios. Vasquez is hitting .192 with 12 K's in 25 ABs against Gausman. He's 2/8 with 1 K against Berrios. Based on that, I bet they go Jeffers today and Vasquez tomorrow.

I meant Kikuchi was a lefty. And I was thinking Gaussman would pitch this weekend

Julien was not great against lefties in 2021. I couldn't find his splits in 2022. Buxton at least has a history against LHP. I'm in favor of giving Julien more ABs against LHP in the regular season, but in a playoff game, thats kinda nuts. Plus, he gives you a potent pinch hitter against a righty reliever, but you'd also have Kiriloff and Wallner for that. Kind of moot if Lewis has to DH, though. You certainly aren't playing Julien over Solano, Polanco or Farmer against LHP.

Playoff injury rules are interesting. If Lewis is DH only, the decision on that last spot comes down to Buxton/Stevenson. I'm going to discount Stevenson's value as a defensive replacement. You can run Kepler, Taylor and Castro out there as a good defensive outfield. Has Buxton slowed down as a baserunner with the injury? Is Stevenson's pinch running capabilities far better than Buxton's? The other thought is that you really only need a pinch runner in a game started by a LHP, or at least moreso. If a RHP starts, you'd have Taylor on the bench to be your first pinch runner. You're also probably only going to pinch run for the Catcher, Kiriloff and Walner. The only reason to keep Buxton is if you think/hope his hitting might come alive. Its certainly possible, but not likely. One problem if you keep Buxton, if he just tweaks his knee and that slows him down, the Commish is probably not going to allow you to replace him on the roster. I think my heart says Buxton for some hitting redemption, but if you are stuck with Lewis at DH and Buxton just can't play OF, the right move I suppose is Stevenson.

Agree, if Lewis has to DH, you leave off Buxton. But if Lewis is good for 3B, I think Buxton is your 14th hitter even if he can't play the field.

Would no DH Julien over Buxton against lefties? I think you'd 100% go with Buxton against lefties. Julien has been brutal against lefties. Buxton hasn't been good, but far better than Julien. Honestly, you'd maybe go with Farmer over Buxton, but you definitely don't go with Julien. Versus RHP C: Jeffers 1B: Kiriloff 2B: Polanco 3B: Lewis SS: Correa LF: Wallner CF: Castro RF: Kepler DH: Julien Versus LHP C: Vasquez (should be Jeffers too, but Vasquez has been good against lefties and you probably aught to give your C a break) 1B: Solano 2B: Polanco 3B: Lewis SS: Correa LF: Castro CF: Taylor RF: Kepler DH: Farmer (or Buxton) That LF spot is the one situation where you might consider Luplow or Gallo over Buxton. If Buxton can play the field, its a no brainer. You take the upside that his long rest ignites his bat and he carries you. If Buxton is DH only, its a tougher choice. I'd probably still keep Buxton for the potential upside. Against LHP, Luplow and Gallo have been a little better than Castro hitting, but I think the defense/base running Castro gives you would tip the scales if I was making decisions. Team Matchups probably come into play as well. If you play the Blue Jays, you are going to see Berrios, Bassitt, Gausman or Kikuchi as SP. My guess is Berrios, Kikuchi, Bassitt, because Bassitt is a lefty. I'm sure they'll have LHP Ryu on the roster as a long reliever against the Twins and Mayza and really good LHP relievers. Gallo has had success against Kikuchi and Mayza, but Ryu owns him. Luplow has had few chances, but good success against them. Same for Castro, although 0-6 against Mayza. I'd probably start Castro in LF and keep Buxton. If you play the Astros, Verlander would likely start Game 2 on short rest, or Game 3 on normal rest. Framber Valdez probably pitches game 1, unless he pitches on short rest on Sunday. If Houston is in a must win situation, they probably go with Valdez. Christian Javier is in line for Sunday's start, but you'd think they'd go with Valdez, or at least have him ready to go. Valdez is their only LHP starter and Bennett Sousa is their only active LHP reliever who's pitched in 6 total games. Parker Mushinski has pitched in 14 games and is not on the active roster. Valdez is really the only LHP of concern. Gallo has some success against Valdez, but so has Castro, so I'd go with Castro/Buxton here too. Seattle has no starting LHP. Saucedo and Speier are their only 2 LHP relief options. Neither is dominant. Gallo has 1 HR in 1 AB against Speier and 2 K's in 2 AB against Saucedo. No reason to keep Gallo or Luplow in this one. I think you go 11 pitchers and 14 hitters with Buxton filling the last hitter spot. Pitchers are clearly Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Maeda, Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, Pagan and Varland, with 1 more spot open. I think with Lopez/Gray, you are likely to go 5-6 innings and if you don't, Maeda is there to fill in. Then you go with Duran, Thielbar, Pagan, Stewart and Jax to get you through innings 7-9. Varland is there is neither Lopez/Gray last that long. Between Duran, Thielbar, Pagan, Stewart and Jax, you should be fine in innings 7-9 all 3 games. Against Seattle, J.P. Crawford is the only guy you might want a LHP for. No need to keep Keuchel or Funderberk. You probably go with Paddack, but you might also consider Ober. But Ober is your most likely Game 1 starter if the first round goes 3 games, so Paddack unless he gets blown up against the Rockies. Against Houston you have Yordan Alvaraz, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker. Tucker hits LHP well, so you can ignore him. Thielbar has done well against all 3, but you probably want another lefty. I would lean Funderberk. Kuechel is decent against Brantley, but he has given up 2 HRs and Brantley's OPS against him is higher than his OPS against all LHP. Against Toronto, you only need a LHP for Brandon Belt (and maybe Kevin Kiermeier, but he's not really worth it). If you check out matchups, Varland has been destroyed by the Blue Jays. Paddack has dominated some of the Blue Jays and Keuchel has dominated other parts of the Blue Jays lineup, so I think you put both of them on the roster.

I think he's been pretty solid in the last month or so. Something seems to have clicked. He's OPS in August is bonkers, he's got 14 walks and 9 strikeouts (exactly what this team needs). He's got 7 stolen bases in August. At a minimum, I think he should be one of the 2 extra guys when the rosters expand. Taylor and Solano have been playing well lately, so I don't think you'd play Martin over them unless they slump, but he probably should take Luplow's spot (or Gallo's, but the Twins can't quite him for some reason).

1. I disagree completely with this one. There is no chance the Twins trade Buxton. He has a no trade clause, he specifically wants to be in Minnesota and he has low value right now. 2. Buxton's status has no impact on Kepler. For whatever reason, Kepler isn't playing CF. 3. I'd be okay with getting rid of Polanco, although my preference would be to keep him. They have depth with Julien, Lewis, Correa and probably Lee, but thats about it. I'd rather keep Polanco than Farmer. Polanco or Kepler could be a decision, though.

I'm not sure we have a lot of alternatives who are cheaper and have at least as high a floor as Max. I certainly wouldn't put Larnach on that list. If you include Kiriloff and Lewis on the list, then sure, they do, but that means they need to fill 1B. I think you go with this as your starters next year. DH - Julien 1B - Kiriloff 2B - Polanco 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Wallner CF - Buxton RF - Kepler Bench - Vasquez, Larnach, Castro, Taylor If something happens and its decided that Buxton can never play the field again, then you adjust and probably don't need Kepler. But as it stands, I think you keep him and stick with the depth you have. Otherwise with an injury or 2 (which we always have), you're going to have Nick Gordon or Austin Martin getting significant corner OF playing time.

I'm on the sell bandwagon. I think they could sell and still make the playoffs. The potential to boost their system a little sounds good to me now. Trade Gray and Maeda - Most likely to replenish the farm system a little. Trade Larnach or Wallner (not both) - Find MLB ready RH bat for the OF. Lane Thomas or someone like that. Trade Gallo - if anyone wants him Trade Farmer - With Correa, Julien, Lewis, Polanco, Castro, he's kind of redundant and not mashing lefties like we'd want him to. Possibly trade Michael Taylor - If you can get something good from a team wanting speed/defense Possibly trade Donovan Solano - If you can get something good. Possibly trade Pagan - if you get something good. Otherwise don't water down the bullpen. Backfill the rotation with Keuchel, Varland and fill in with Simeon Woods-Richardson if needed. In a pinch, Dobnak hasn't been awful lately. If you have a CF problem that you need to fill, call up Kiersey. I think he's rule V eligible anyway and he's doing great in AA. At a minimum you get defense and speed. Call up Miranda to play 1B (especially if Gallo and Solano both get traded). Could probably do a 3 man rotation between Lewis, Polanco and Miranda at 1B/3B and see if Miranda can pick things up again.

I meant the more of the percentages, but even with that BABIP, he was an above average hitter against RHP last year. He also crushed RHP in 2021, so him getting lucky with a high BABIP seems to be happening more than him getting unlucky.

What are his statcast numbers against lefties?

Interesting. More than likely, someone will be hurt, so it'll work itself out. If Buxton isn't hurt, they won't leave him off. Granted, I'm assuming he's this bad of a hitter the rest of the year. I think Taylor probably makes it, just for late inning defense. I think Julien or Polanco could also play 1B. Maybe Farmer is left off. Might depend on matchups. If they face a team with a bunch of LHP, that might change thing.

I'd be willing to trade for a reliever for cash or some really low end prospect. Agree that trading for relievers is a crapshoot though. I do think they get get a RH outfielder, though. Even a rental like Grichuk, who wouldn't fit the bill. Would anyone complain about giving up Carlos Aguiar or Willie Joe Garry Jr.? The other thing to think about is the 40 man roster and the Rule V draft. Looking at the current Twins 40 man, I count 33 they would retain. That includes guys like Canterino, Headrick, Henriquez, Sands, Winder, Gordon. Possible they could drop one or more of those. I put maybes on 5 guys, De Leon, Ortega, Farmer, Kepler and Taylor. I don't know who exactly is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year, but if there are prospects who are eligible who the Twins know they won't protect, they might be willing to trade them now.

How about signing Wil Myers as the a RH hitting OF option. He hit lefties well last year and I think he got released, so they wouldn't have to trade anyone for him or pay him much.

I'd take Grichuk as a platoon guy. Play him against lefties.

Another possible rental would be Randal Grichuk. He's having a big bounceback year, but even when he struggled last year, he still crushed lefties. I imagine the cost would be pretty cheap, too.

Why? He's a rental anyway. A team that wanted him for this year wouldn't be worried about retirement. Just might reduce the return if a team who traded for him thought it gave them an inside chance at signing him.

I'll post plans to buy and to sell. Since I'm ever the optimist, I'll start with a buy plan first. Thought being is that the Twins can obviously win the division and have pitching that can compete in the playoffs. If their big hitters revert to the mean, they can have a good offense. Correa, Buxton could get way hot. Kepler can hit better than he has. Here is the buy plan: 1: Fire the hitting coach. Its incredible how bad almost every single hitter is this year. They don't have a single guy having an above average (for them) year and several who are having their worst season in 3-5 years. 2: Keep Gallo. His average sucks, but he's doing what he does. Walks and hits for power. His position flexibility is nice, being able to fill LF, RF and 1B. At worst, I'd rather have him on the bench than Nick Gordon. 3: Probably keep Kepler, unless you get a decent offer or fall into a big upgrade. 4: If you're worried about Royce Lewis coming back, trade for Paul Goldschmidt. I'd maybe even do Goldschmidt for Rodriguez. Would rather do Goldschmidt for Larnach/Winder. 5: Cardinals are probably not selling, so 3B could be a hole. Maybe Justin Turner for the Red Sox? Carlos Santana or Bellinger at 1B and let Solano move to 3B? 6: Shop the RP market for one more RP. Don't break the bank on prospects. If they are sellers: 1. Shop Gallo and Kepler. Make sure you give Wallner and Larnach a lot of play. 2. Shop Gray. Would have to be for a solid haul, though. He'll get a QO and possibly a contract extension. 3. Obviously shop Pagan, but I'd listen to any reliever not named Duran. Jax or Stewart would need to be a great haul, though. 3. Shop Solano 4. Shop Michael Taylor, although I might resign him instead. 5. Trade Polanco. I think Julien will be fine, or if a 3B steps up, its another Royce Lewis spot. Or Brooks Lee. 5. Shop Vazquez and Farmer. Vazquez probably won't get much, so I'd keep him due to the lack of C depth the Twins have.

Not to mention, he's going to be cheap. He's not going to keep hitting this terribly the rest of teh contract and even if he can never play CF again, $15M isn't bad for the type of hitter he would be. More likely, he recovers in the offseason and does get to play some CF in the future.

1. Agree, but don't underrate his clubhouse presence. Sounds like his mentorship really helped Miranda. 2. He does want to be here. If the Twins had offered 12/350 like the Giants did, I bet he picks the Twins. If the Twins had offered 12/315 like the Mets did, I bet he picks the Twins. The fact that he chose more long term security and money than average money per year doesn't mean he didn't like Minnesota. 3. BS. When was the last time a big time contract had someone who wanted to renegotiate in baseball? Does it ever happen? Is Mike Trout begging to get a contract like Aaron Judge. 4. Its more like your hooker dropping you, trying some other guys and then coming back. There is money involved. A personal relationship typically doesn't involve money or a contract. At least for most, maybe your relationships do. 5. It is really weird. Definitely a risk, but you gotta take some risks.

I wouldn't worry about signing those young guys. They are under control for a long time. Larnach, Kiriloff, Duran, Ryan, Ober won't be free agents until 2028. Lewis, Miranda, Winder, Sands, Woods-Richardson won't be a free agent until 2029. Lee, Martin, Julian, Rodriguez, Prielipp won't be a free agents until 2030 or later. Correa will only be making $30M in 2029 and $25M in 2030 if he's still around. By 2029, the Twins payroll should increase up to $160M at minimum I would guess. That still leaves a lot of money for retaining their best young players. Plus, the probably try to sign some of them up for extensions early, which would mean it wouldn't be like they are signing them all to $30M/year contracts of their own.

It does give them a ton of options now to bolster the roster, either during the offseason or before the trade deadline. All of the OFs could be available for the right deal (Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, even Gallo). Polanco, Arraez or Miranda could go and they wouldn't have a huge hole. Even prospects like Lewis, Lee, Martin or Julian become more available theoretically. I think they could put together a deal for about any SP that became available if they thought it moved the needle.

Just go with Nick Nelson's idea. I don't care about the opt outs at all. Twins would have been thrilled with him for 3 years at 105M, so if they offer him an opt out after year 3 or 4, who cares? And if he stinks and stays, how is that any different than a contract with no opt outs? Its not at all. And he's going to have a no trade clause no matter who signs him, so complaining about that is pointless.