clone52

As long as its not a Top 10 prospect, he'd be a good flyer if they don't get anyone else. Even if the $$$ wasn't a problem, the prospect price for Blake Snell would be insane. You're probably talking about either Lee or Rodriguez plus David Festa to start.

I think people are underestimating Kikuchi big time. His ERA looks rough this year, and he's been shelled his last 3 starts, but other than that, he's looked good. His strikeout rate hasn't dropped. His walk rate has improved a little bit. His HR is normal. His FIP is the lowest of his career, so it seems like his overall ERA is due a bit to luck. He's also a lefty, so depending on the matchup, that could be really useful. Against the Yankees this year, he's thrown 15.1 innings and given up 5 ER, which isn't too bad, although his last outing was his worst. Against the Orioles this year, he's thrown 10.1 innings and given up 2 ER. He had 1 great start against Seattle. He gave up 2 ER in 5.2 innings against Houston. I think he'd be in the top 3 pitchers in a series against the Yankees for sure. At a minimum, I think he's the 4th starter in the playoffs, ahead of SWR who will likely be getting fatigued. If SWR is doing well, having them split a game wouldn't be a bad idea.

Is that a requirement to win Rookie of the year? He'd be the Twins #4 option this year. I'm not saying he's in the lead, I'm just saying that he's worth talking about. If he keeps up the same pace (big if), he'd be about 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His K/9 is low at 7.4. His lack of wins would probably be the driving factor keeping him out. Luis GIL is having a better year. He might finish 16-8 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Much higher K/9 as well at 10.4. He's one of the current favorites to win, but SWR is not that far behind him. Pitchers rarely win ROY. Michael Fullmer did in 2016 going 11-7 with a 3.06 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 7.5 K/9. deGrom won in 2014 going 9-6 with a 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. As of today, I think he'd finish in the Top 10.

Colton Cowser is hitting 0.221. He had an INSANE April, but has been AWFUL since then. 0.580 OPS in May, 0.679 in June and 0.490 in July. If he turns it around and finishes the year strong, he'll be a candidate. If he continues his 2 month trend, he won't get votes. Wyatt Langford is having a great year and improving. Probably the leading candidate. Spencer Horwitz is having a great year and if he keeps it up will be in the running. Luis Gil is probably ahead of SWR right now, but its close. He's actually the #2 favorite on one betting site, likely due to him playing for the Yankees. I don't think SWR will win, but if he keeps this up all year, he'll be in the conversation.

Maybe I misunderstood. I thought you were saying that it might make sense not to use your best pitcher in the 8th inning against the best hitters in order to let him have a lower stress inning in the 9th. Not all the times, but some of the times. If that wasn't the argument you were making, then I apologize.

LambchoP: What good does saving Duran for the 9th inning if the save gets blown in the 8th? If you feel the big risk in losing the game is in the 8th, you'd be stupid not to use your best reliever in that situation. I'm not saying its a home run that Duran should have pitched in the 8th, but if you're worried about Thielbar pitching to Julio, its not a bad move. Theilbar appears to have breezed through the 9th, so whats the worry. Jax had thrown 31 pitches already so he wasn't an option and Stewart is hurt. Matthew: Couldn't you also make an argument that if you don't want to stress your top pitcher by facing the top hitters all the time, you also don't want to stress that pitcher by making them pitch in every single save opportunity? Would you really want to pitch Duran in the 5 inning when the Twins were down 8 just to reduce their stress? It probably depends on the makeup of the pitcher. Duran seems pretty unflappable, so being in high leverage situations all the time probably isn't that big of a deal. If a pitcher can't handle the stress of high leverage situations all the time, that probably means they are easily shaken and are probably never going to be an elite setup man or closer no matter how often you reduce their stressful situations.

Has anyone ever thought that they might just be wanting to have mid season flexibility? The team doesn't have a ton of holes. Another SP is one of them, but it is likely that the Twins win the central division with the options they have now, so an immediate pickup is not critical. Lopez is a solid #1. Ober matches up with #2 of other contenders. Joe Ryan needs to get more consistency. Paddack is an injury risk (who could probably be replaced by a midseason trade if he gets hurt). When you look at Varland, Woods-Richardson, Canterino and Festa, they've got 4 young guys that may be able to step up to that #5 role. If it becomes a problem over the first couple months of the season, they have the prospect depth to trade for an upgrade, who would likely be cheaper or shorter term deal than Montgomery or Snell. RH outfield depth is the other need. This was never going to be a big signing. Maybe the pick up Taylor again, or fill this with young guys in the system stepping up. Again, if its a big problem, a mid-season trade wouldn't be crazy. If the Angels don't contend, Aaron Hicks would be available. The Twins have a lot of good young guys and up and comers. The salary increases for next season are big. A reasonable 2024 plan is to stand pat, not lock up even more payroll on long term contracts, see how the young guys step up and if needed, use your prospect depth to make in season tweaks.

I have a feeling that this is part of a bigger plan. Either Gabrial Gonzalez or Emmanuel Rodriguez might be the center piece of a trade for an establish SP.

What is local? Would Iowa get Twins games (if they were in on this deal)? Is that considered local blackouts?

I was wrong.

Mitch Keller.

Some were implying they wouldn't trade Julien for an established pitcher. I was disagreeing.

No way. I am saying at the time, people would have been skeptical. Today, I would trade Julien straight up for Gilbert, Kirby, Keller in a heartbeat.

Are you sure? Would we have thought Arraez alone would net Pablo Lopez?

I don't disagree with you about this at all. Julien is great and would be a keeper. But, if you could trade for a Pablo Lopez type SP, I'd do it all day. You still have Polanco to man 2B for 2 years and its possible that Brooks Lee or Austin Martin could be as good or better than Julien.

I hope you're right, but we know they are trying to cut payroll. We don't know by how much. Right now they are sitting at about $125 M. You're right, though, if they trade Polanco (or Kepler), it would cover it.

Payroll is an issue. Keeping Polanco, Kepler and signing Clevinger probably isn't in the budget this year. Luzardo is cheaper and if the Marlins want Kepler or Polanco as part of the deal, that save payroll money too.

I would definitely give up any SP they want in the system. Not worried about the pipeline because Luzardo basically is the fulfillment of the pipeline. I don't think Kepler and Polanco have as much value to Miami as you think. Maybe they'd like to flip one of them, but I don't know that they want to spend that much money. They are going the Tampa route of trading players to fill in their minors pipeline. Getting both Kepler and Polanco doesn't do much. I think it would be enough. Miami would be getting a Top 50 position player, possibly a top 100 SP prospect (I think Festa/Raya are close to that), a proven vet to fill in their lineup plus a lottery ticket prospect.

You'd have to get a lot more if you included both Lee and Rodriguez. I wish the Twins could get Luzardo or Mitch Keller without giving up Lee or Rodriguez, but that probably isn't happening. I'd probably choose not to trade either one, but if you told me I had to get Luzardo, here is what I would offer up. Polanco or Kepler (Marlins choice) Brooks Lee (If the Marlins get Kepler) or Rodriguez (If the Marlins choose Polanco) Festa or Raya Another low minors/high upside guy.

With one year of control left, I don't think the age difference is a big deal. I think the Twins have some internal options to replace Kepler if they trade him. So I don't think the Twins need to be getting back a 3 WAR guy to improve the team this year. The internal replacements would be a step down, but if the Twins could get a good RH outfielder, a 1B platoon guy, a cheap backup C or a solid reliever, plus a prospect or 2, I'd be okay with it. Or using Kepler plus prospects in a package deal for a good SP (say Kepler or one of the Mariners).

I would be all over Mitch Keller, headlining a trade with whatever SP prospect they want (Festa or Raya). Pittsburgh might do it since they might not think keeping Keller is feasible after 2025. I would be fine trading any SP prospect. The Twins don't have a great history of turning highly rated Prospects into quality major leagues. In the last 5-10 years it's pretty much Berrios and crickets. Balazovich, Romero, Gonzales, Jay, Stewart. Trading any of them at a certain point of their careers would have seemed bonkers. Even the prospects they have traded haven't turned into huge losses yet. Graterol is a great reliever, but I think Maeda and Camargo turned out well. Petty looks awful good, but he is still super young and probably wouldn't be helping the Twins for another 3-5 years at best.

If healthy, I like the idea of a Kiriloff, Julien, Correa, Lewis infield of the future. That is with a healthy Kiriloff of course. To start the year I'd imagine its going to be Julien, Polanco, Correa, Lewis. First base always seems like something you could fill easier than some other positions if you had to trade someone away. They've got some options available if they had to fill it (Miranda bounce back, Brooks Lee position change, Yunior Severino). Also, if Buxton's knee's are too much for CF, could he give 1B a try? Might be less impact on his knees.

Its not perfect, but it gets you in the ballpark. The thing with Soto is that he has 1 year left and he's a free agent. If a team wants him, they want him to sign him longer term, so he'd be worth more than BTV gives him credit for. Now if Juan Soto came out and said he was retiring at the end of the 2024 season, a Jax for Soto trade might make sense. Jax has a lot of value. Super cheap for the next 4 years. If he were a free agent this year, he'd be getting 8-10M per year at least. If Emmanuel Rodriguez truly is a top 10 prospect, then yeah, the Pirates trade doesn't make sense. Rodriguez (or Lee or Jenkins) would probably be enough to get both Bednar and Keller on their own. I'm assuming he's still in the 50-100 range and I think thats the kind of deal it would take to get those 2. I personally don't see Rodriguez as having having more value than Lee or Jenkins, though. Another route you could go is Matt Wallner as the top guy in a trade. Something like Wallner, Festa and couple others might get that trade done. All of this all depends on the teams evaluation too. 29 teams might think Prospect X is a fringe top 100 guy and 1 team think he's a top 10 prospect and sure thing. I'm curious if you have some trade ideas, for Keller or for the pair. I love the speculation.

Oh, I don't know that they need Bender, but I'd rather see them get a top end guy, or some minor league free agents, than spend millions on some fringe guy. Keller is a guy I want them to pursue. I think he has the potential to take off like Pablo Lopez. The trade was pure speculation using that Baseball Trade Values just to ballpark it. I don't want to trade Julien, but I could totally see them going that route like they did with Arraez. They have depth that could replace him, and there are some people that worry about his defense (he'll improve so I'm not worried about that). They could start the year with Polanco at 2B and also have Lee, Martin and Severino as possible replacements. This would all be dependent on Pittsburgh deciding that their window is not the next 2 years. If they aren't idiots, they'd realize that trading Bednar for prospects makes sense. RPs are always risky to drop off a cliff. If they are idiots, they won't realize they should extend Keller. Keller only might go something like this. Severino, Festa, Canterino.

#1, we don't know if the money will be there, due to the TV contract. Even so, I think I'd pass. I'd take Gray because he's a known quantity, and although he's getting older, he seems to have a great work ethic and will be able to adjust. I'd take Giolito because I think he's a lotto ticket. Might even see if he'd take 3/30. I'd take Ohtani if the money was there. I'd take Yamamoto because I want the Twins to make a massive Japan pitching splash at some point. I'm a no on Montgomery because he is a low strikeout guy. For $25M a year, I think I would want that. I'd stay away from Nola because his K/9 is dropping on a yearly basis. 12.1 to 11.1 to 10.3 to 9.4. I don't want to commit to 5 years of that. Blake Snell would probably be okay, but I don't love the 5 year commitment. I don't see any huge red flags, so I wouldn't whine if they did sign him. Kershaw isn't signing with the Twins, but I'd be okay with 1 year for him at that cost. Rodriguez isn't a huge K guy. His Hard Hit % is creeping up. His GB rate is dropping. I have a feeling he could drop off a cliff soon. If they don't make a trade, 1 year of Wacha would be fine.