clone52

Cool, I like this news. Go the Rays route. Move Jeffers if you can get a good deal that helps now and you don't know you can sign him. Move Larnach if you get a decent deal that helps now. I think he regresses big time. I'd keep Bell just for the power punch. Use depth to add where applicable. Any of these guys on their own are not untouchable if it brings back something that helps now. Martin, Clemens, Keaschall, any minor leaguer not named Jenkins, Culpepper or Tait. Trading 1 major leaguer and a couple of Top 15 minor leaguers is not going to destroy chances this year or in the future.

I could see packaging Jeffers with Marek Houston for a higher end SP prospect. Houston alone wouldn't be a 1 for 1 swap for a guy like Hess or Lagrange, but Jeffers + Houston might.

Chapman isn't a 2 month rental. Has a 2027 vesting option for $13M if he hits 40 innings. If I thought a World Series title was possible this year or next year wasn't so weird, maybe, but now, only if it was a lottery pick or less. Doubt Gray waives it and I wouldn't do it if he did.

Saying he will need to earn every appearance in a competitive bullpen makes sense, but I'd probably rank him #3 in terms of my own personal confidence. Saying the Twins have a competitive bullpen did make me chuckle.

I think the Yankees and Rays are the 2 possible destination for Jeffers. If they go full rebuilding, getting AA prospects is okay. Otherwise I think you package Jeffers with a prospect or 2 to try and get something a little better in return. I think I'd prefer they sign and keep him though.

Agree with you about Jeffers whole heartedly. Disagree about corner OF. Martin won't bring much at all and Larnach will turn into a pumpkin most likely. Sell him if you can get someone to overpay. Keaschall, Martin, Jenkins, Clemens could all possibly fill those corner outfield spots better than Larnach if he does regress. Agree on Wallner. Not sure when he is a free agent, but might be willing to give him another shot if they deal Larnach. If someone makes a good offer though, I'd definitely trade him.

This seems like a classic situation of overvaluing Twins players and undervaluing other teams players. If they can get more for Ryan, they will. It was a proposal I saw on a site and it isn't way out there. Salas is still a Top 50 prospect and should be ready next year. Mayfield seems like a really nice prospect. In my proposal, we wouldn't be targeting near term replacements for Ryan. I don't know WAldschmit but saw he was ranked highly. MLB.com has him as 28 overall. Higher than Emmanuel Rodriguez. No one is getting him for 1/2 a season of Larnach. Additionally, Jeffers is not getting a great pitching prospect like Hopkins plus a solid MLB reliever. I don't think adding Armstrong is going to make that happen. Jeffers and Armstrong for Hopkins might work, but probably not. I mean, would you trade Prielipp or Morris or Abel for 1/2 season of Jeffers and Armstrong? I sure hope not.

Not really. Has he had the opportunity yet to go big or go home? The only way he doesn't live up to that comment is if the team does nothing, or next to nothing at the trade deadline. Really the only trigger is either not getting any relief pitcher help or not trading Jeffers (and not signing him in the offseason). Could say the same thing about Larnach. Almost any other move has arguments either way.

Makes sense. I also wouldn't hate if "going big" meant extending Ryan.

Don't hate it. Don't sell Buxton and don't sell low on Lewis. If they knew they could sign Jeffers, trading Caratini is fine. I think they could do this and still contend this year (due to the suckage of the AL).

Lets have some fun trade ideas. Joe Ryan to the Padres for Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield, Jhoan De La Cruz First example I saw on a site, not my idea. Some of the shine has coome off of Salas but still great C prospect who would get called up right away. Mayfeild is a really good LHP prospect. De La Cruz is 18 in rookie ball. Ryan Jeffers and Marek Houston to the Rays for Kevin Kelly and Brody Hopkins I'd reach out to the Rays and Yankees for Jeffers and find the best offer. Would be willing to add a prospect in order to get a better return. Trevor Larnach and Gabriel Gonzalez to the Diamondbacks for Ryan Waldschmidt D-backs need lefties (maybe Wallner?). Larnach and Gonzalez probably isn't enough to get a Top 50 prospect, but could start the discussion. Wallner, Mendez, Soto to Angel for Reid Detmers. Find a couple of relief pitchers. Lose: Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, Gonzalez, Houston, Mendez, Soto, 2 or 3 more Top 20 prospects Return: Detmers, Kelly, Salas, Waldschmidt, Mayfield, De La Cruz, Hopkins

I like these ideas. Soriano and Detmers could be decent Joe Ryan replacements (if they trade him) and likely cost less than Ryan returns. I would not make Emmanual Rodriguez or Mendez off limits (maybe for these guys, but not in general). Both lefty outfielders and outfield could definitely be crowded the next several years (Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Gonzales, Rodan, Mendez, Winokour, not to mention Clemens and Martin filling in gaps if you keep them).

If the Twins make the playoffs, I think you'd have Jenkins and Culpepper on the roster. Possibly Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez or Roden. Keaschall and Lee are young. Maybe Sabato gets a shot. If they trade Jeffers, maybe Cardenas or Banuelos or Olivar gets a shot. From a pitching standpoint, Taj Bradley, Rojas, Morris, Matthews, Prielipp, Raya. Maybe Quick even. Abel, Festa, Paredes. Lots of potential young players and potential future building blocks that could get experience.

I wonder what a shortened season would do for Ryan's value next year. Lets say they have to shorten it to 120 games. Crazy stuff can happen in a shortened season. Ryan would be fresher and could be worth a lot to a team trying to take a 1 year shot at a championship. For that matter, maybe the Twins should keep him for that same reason. At least until next summer deadline.

I think you can still "go big" with the middle ground as well. Twins have some depth that could be seen as selling while actually buying and staying in playoff contention this year. I haven't spent a ton of time thinking about putting names on trades, but its an intriguing option. I think there are two big questions that have to be answered. 1. Can they, and do they want to sign extensions for Ryan and Jeffers? Do either of them want to stay? Jeffers is bigger priority, as if you keep him, you lose him for nothing. They could keep Ryan and think more this offseason and next year. 2. How bad are things labor wise? Will next year be a bust. For fun, I'm going to assume Ryan and Jeffers wants to test free agency no matter what. I'll also assume the labor situation resolves so next season is not lost. I think the Twins have outfield depth, especially left handed. Buxton is staying. Martin, Clemens, Keaschall, Larnach and Wallner all have MLB experience now. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez are all close to MLB ready. Even Winokur is probably not too far off. Jenkins is the ONLY player from that list I would make off limits. I would 100% trade Larnach and Wallner (in almost any scenario this year). I might sell high on Clemens. I wouldn't complete gut the minors, but I'd trade 1 or 2 of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez and Winokur. I'd trade Jeffers and Joe Ryan for sure. Likely giving you more prospects that could be used in other deals. I would target MLB ready or near MLB ready SP, plus a plethora of RP options (not the top guys). I wouldn't take Marek Houston off the table, or 1 or 2 of the top minor league pitching prospects. I would also consider MLB upgrades. What would it take to pry Jeremy Pena for 2 years from Houston? Or 3 years of CJ Abrams from the Nationals? How about 3 years of Reid Detmers or Jose Soriano fromo the Angles? The return from the Ryan trade might be more than enough to get 2 more years of either of them. If you use Keaschall or Lee in a trade, the cost of an Arraez reunion wouldn't be to cumbersome. Michael Wacha wouldn't be a bad option to backfill a Joe Ryan trade. I'd go bargain basement shopping on relief pitchers in trades. Don't want to overpay for a top guy, either in the trade or the dollars. Obviously anything they could get would be an upgrade this year.

I think there are 3 options and you could "go big" in all 3 directions. Option 1 - Sell off: This might make sense, especially if they are worried about the labor dispute in 2027. Start off by saying Buxton is staying. He doesn't want to leave and no reason for the Twins to push him out the door. Obvious Trade Candidates: Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Wallner, Bell, Rogers Others Candidates: Lopez - I don't think they'd get much and would rather see if he was interested in a 1 year extension. He is owed $21.75M and see if he'd be willing to make that around $30M for 2027 and 2028. Caratini - Trading him would leave the cupboard too bare at C Ober - Value has dropped, still cheap and let him try and build it back up Lewis - Value has dropped, looking a lot better and still cheap Clemons - Maybe trade him if you are blown away and if you think the clock will strike midnight and he will turn into a pumpkin. I'd keep him, though. Low cost utility player at worst. But with Culpepper ready to come up and Houston close too, maybe you don't actually need that. He is a tough case. Option 2 - Buy: Don't overpay for the top bullpen guys but maybe go the next level down. Try to get another solid SP. Untouchables: Jenkins, Culpepper, Tait, probably some pitchers Candidates: Jeffers (if you can't resign him), Larnach, Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, maybe 1 decent pitching prospect Option 3 - Emulate the Rays. Try to boost the bullpen, SP and lineup while trading guys you don't see a long term future with. Candidates: Jeffers, Ryan, Lopez, Larnach, Wallner, definitely Clemens, Martin Surprising Candidates: Minor League Depth (Houston, 1 or 2 of Hill, Soto, Rojas, Quick, Raya) (1 or 2 of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez, Winokur etc), Keaschall, Lee, etc.

You're idea is completely plausible and probably right. I want to hope for better. Maybe the investment groups are passionate about baseball and not looking to absolutely maximize their return. Not lose money, but just take their cut of the normal profits the team normally gets. According to Forbs, in 2024, the Twins had $324M in Revenue and $5.2M in Operating Income (which I think is profit)? Player expenses were $182M which means other expenses were $137M. Maybe it breaks down like this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $182M (payroll of $126M, this includes bonuses, benefits, I assume minor league players) Debt Service: $25M Other expenses: $112M Profit: $5M Lets say the new ownership groups paid $400M for 20% and lets say they said "We want 3% return on investment each year. We know we could get more elsewhere, but we want to be owners, we like the Twins and we know the value of the franchise will increase." If that was used to pay down debt service, you could theoretically do this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $195M (with the same ratio, that would $133M payroll) Debt Service: None Other expenses: $112M Profit: $17M (12 for investors and 5 for the Pohlad's) That's wildly optimistic, so slashing salary (which is more likely) could look like this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $144M (for a $100M payroll) Debt Service: 0 Other expenses: $112M Profit: $68M (about $13M for investors and $55M for pohlads). We all hoped for a sale to an ownership group who wasn't looking to suck every ounce of profit from the team. Maybe we can still hope for the new groups to also not be looking to suck every ounce of profit from the team.

How much were they paying on that debt service? If that entire debt was paid off, whatever they used to be paying for debt service. This a very simplistic view that I'm absolutely sure is not correct, but maybe its something like this. Lets say the Twins have $400M in debt. If its a 30 year loan at 5% interest, they'd be paying $26M a year on it. If the new minority owners got 20% of the club for $400M, they'd presumably get 20% of any profit the team makes. That income, along with the increased value of the team over time is their return on investment. Theoretically, that would free up $26M every year for additional payroll expenditures.

On the optimistic side, maybe the inflow of capitol can be spent. If the investors are ponying up $500M for 1/3 of the team (or something like that), if they invest it (or pay down debt), just the return theoretically should allow the team to increase payroll $25-50M a year. Without that, the Twins were probably looking at a payroll around $100M. This could keep it near where it has been. Not super exciting and the news sucks, but maybe its not all doom and gloom.

You're not wrong. There is some circular logic. If I think the team can contend in 2026, then they could have contended in 2025. But, if people think the trade deadline "decimated" the team, then the only thing the Twins have to replace is a bullpen and they can contend again. There are some other things that could help in 2026. Keaschall and Lewis being healthy and good. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper making the leap to the majors. If a new owner wants to spend a bit, finding a solid 1B to maybe fill the hole left by what a healthy Correa could have been. It seems like the "worst" trade was Varland. But Kendry Rojas might be a stud. I still think that if they want to contend in 2026, filling in the bullpen is absolutely possible.

I don't know if its a rebuild or a retool, but its not like they gutted the entire roster. They only gutted the bullpen. It is going to depend on the new owners, there are really two options. Complete rebuild and contend in 2028 or retool and contend right away. If they decide they can't contend, there could be a bigger selloff. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, or you maybe sign Ryan and/or Ober if you think they can anchor a competative rotation in their mid-30's. Jeffers, maybe even Lewis. I think they can contend quickly. Their rotation is really solid, and thats usually the hardest to get right. They have a TON of outfield options (Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalaz, Mendez). You'd have to have injury luck finally, but 3B is solid. With Lee, Keaschall and Culpepper, the middle infield is covered. Catcher is covered next year and you likely sign Jeffers longer. 1B is a big hole that if the new owner wanted to spend money, they could do a good job there. You need catching depth, so that is a spot. And finally the bullpen. You've got to get that right, but there some internal options, specifically converting SPs to RPs (Prielipp, Raya, Rojas, Culpepper, Lewis for prospects or Zebby, Festa, Abel for guys who've gotten a taste). Another option is dipping into the OF and SP prospect depth to trade for RPs. This would best be done in the offseason, rather than at the deadline.

Seems like Outman basically replaces Bader, so its almost like Stewart for 2 prospects. Too many lefties, so I wonder if Larnach or Wallner go today (or this offseason)

Depends on how they use him. If they use him in the rights spots, he can be passible. Its not like the Twins bullpen has been lighting it up. If payroll weren't an issue, what bullpen trade would you have made?

Not saying this is a great move, but everyone is negative so I'll try to look towards the positive. 15 ER in 8 IP is awful and frankly its amazing he has a 4.64 ERA. Hopefully its just a blip. I'm not going to lose sleep over who they gave up.

You'd be okay with it if he had those splits, but threw lefthanded?