clone52

I like these ideas. Soriano and Detmers could be decent Joe Ryan replacements (if they trade him) and likely cost less than Ryan returns. I would not make Emmanual Rodriguez or Mendez off limits (maybe for these guys, but not in general). Both lefty outfielders and outfield could definitely be crowded the next several years (Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Gonzales, Rodan, Mendez, Winokour, not to mention Clemens and Martin filling in gaps if you keep them).

If the Twins make the playoffs, I think you'd have Jenkins and Culpepper on the roster. Possibly Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez or Roden. Keaschall and Lee are young. Maybe Sabato gets a shot. If they trade Jeffers, maybe Cardenas or Banuelos or Olivar gets a shot. From a pitching standpoint, Taj Bradley, Rojas, Morris, Matthews, Prielipp, Raya. Maybe Quick even. Abel, Festa, Paredes. Lots of potential young players and potential future building blocks that could get experience.

I wonder what a shortened season would do for Ryan's value next year. Lets say they have to shorten it to 120 games. Crazy stuff can happen in a shortened season. Ryan would be fresher and could be worth a lot to a team trying to take a 1 year shot at a championship. For that matter, maybe the Twins should keep him for that same reason. At least until next summer deadline.

I think you can still "go big" with the middle ground as well. Twins have some depth that could be seen as selling while actually buying and staying in playoff contention this year. I haven't spent a ton of time thinking about putting names on trades, but its an intriguing option. I think there are two big questions that have to be answered. 1. Can they, and do they want to sign extensions for Ryan and Jeffers? Do either of them want to stay? Jeffers is bigger priority, as if you keep him, you lose him for nothing. They could keep Ryan and think more this offseason and next year. 2. How bad are things labor wise? Will next year be a bust. For fun, I'm going to assume Ryan and Jeffers wants to test free agency no matter what. I'll also assume the labor situation resolves so next season is not lost. I think the Twins have outfield depth, especially left handed. Buxton is staying. Martin, Clemens, Keaschall, Larnach and Wallner all have MLB experience now. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez are all close to MLB ready. Even Winokur is probably not too far off. Jenkins is the ONLY player from that list I would make off limits. I would 100% trade Larnach and Wallner (in almost any scenario this year). I might sell high on Clemens. I wouldn't complete gut the minors, but I'd trade 1 or 2 of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez and Winokur. I'd trade Jeffers and Joe Ryan for sure. Likely giving you more prospects that could be used in other deals. I would target MLB ready or near MLB ready SP, plus a plethora of RP options (not the top guys). I wouldn't take Marek Houston off the table, or 1 or 2 of the top minor league pitching prospects. I would also consider MLB upgrades. What would it take to pry Jeremy Pena for 2 years from Houston? Or 3 years of CJ Abrams from the Nationals? How about 3 years of Reid Detmers or Jose Soriano fromo the Angles? The return from the Ryan trade might be more than enough to get 2 more years of either of them. If you use Keaschall or Lee in a trade, the cost of an Arraez reunion wouldn't be to cumbersome. Michael Wacha wouldn't be a bad option to backfill a Joe Ryan trade. I'd go bargain basement shopping on relief pitchers in trades. Don't want to overpay for a top guy, either in the trade or the dollars. Obviously anything they could get would be an upgrade this year.

I think there are 3 options and you could "go big" in all 3 directions. Option 1 - Sell off: This might make sense, especially if they are worried about the labor dispute in 2027. Start off by saying Buxton is staying. He doesn't want to leave and no reason for the Twins to push him out the door. Obvious Trade Candidates: Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Wallner, Bell, Rogers Others Candidates: Lopez - I don't think they'd get much and would rather see if he was interested in a 1 year extension. He is owed $21.75M and see if he'd be willing to make that around $30M for 2027 and 2028. Caratini - Trading him would leave the cupboard too bare at C Ober - Value has dropped, still cheap and let him try and build it back up Lewis - Value has dropped, looking a lot better and still cheap Clemons - Maybe trade him if you are blown away and if you think the clock will strike midnight and he will turn into a pumpkin. I'd keep him, though. Low cost utility player at worst. But with Culpepper ready to come up and Houston close too, maybe you don't actually need that. He is a tough case. Option 2 - Buy: Don't overpay for the top bullpen guys but maybe go the next level down. Try to get another solid SP. Untouchables: Jenkins, Culpepper, Tait, probably some pitchers Candidates: Jeffers (if you can't resign him), Larnach, Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, maybe 1 decent pitching prospect Option 3 - Emulate the Rays. Try to boost the bullpen, SP and lineup while trading guys you don't see a long term future with. Candidates: Jeffers, Ryan, Lopez, Larnach, Wallner, definitely Clemens, Martin Surprising Candidates: Minor League Depth (Houston, 1 or 2 of Hill, Soto, Rojas, Quick, Raya) (1 or 2 of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez, Winokur etc), Keaschall, Lee, etc.

You're idea is completely plausible and probably right. I want to hope for better. Maybe the investment groups are passionate about baseball and not looking to absolutely maximize their return. Not lose money, but just take their cut of the normal profits the team normally gets. According to Forbs, in 2024, the Twins had $324M in Revenue and $5.2M in Operating Income (which I think is profit)? Player expenses were $182M which means other expenses were $137M. Maybe it breaks down like this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $182M (payroll of $126M, this includes bonuses, benefits, I assume minor league players) Debt Service: $25M Other expenses: $112M Profit: $5M Lets say the new ownership groups paid $400M for 20% and lets say they said "We want 3% return on investment each year. We know we could get more elsewhere, but we want to be owners, we like the Twins and we know the value of the franchise will increase." If that was used to pay down debt service, you could theoretically do this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $195M (with the same ratio, that would $133M payroll) Debt Service: None Other expenses: $112M Profit: $17M (12 for investors and 5 for the Pohlad's) That's wildly optimistic, so slashing salary (which is more likely) could look like this. Total Revenue: $324M Player Expenses: $144M (for a $100M payroll) Debt Service: 0 Other expenses: $112M Profit: $68M (about $13M for investors and $55M for pohlads). We all hoped for a sale to an ownership group who wasn't looking to suck every ounce of profit from the team. Maybe we can still hope for the new groups to also not be looking to suck every ounce of profit from the team.

How much were they paying on that debt service? If that entire debt was paid off, whatever they used to be paying for debt service. This a very simplistic view that I'm absolutely sure is not correct, but maybe its something like this. Lets say the Twins have $400M in debt. If its a 30 year loan at 5% interest, they'd be paying $26M a year on it. If the new minority owners got 20% of the club for $400M, they'd presumably get 20% of any profit the team makes. That income, along with the increased value of the team over time is their return on investment. Theoretically, that would free up $26M every year for additional payroll expenditures.

On the optimistic side, maybe the inflow of capitol can be spent. If the investors are ponying up $500M for 1/3 of the team (or something like that), if they invest it (or pay down debt), just the return theoretically should allow the team to increase payroll $25-50M a year. Without that, the Twins were probably looking at a payroll around $100M. This could keep it near where it has been. Not super exciting and the news sucks, but maybe its not all doom and gloom.

You're not wrong. There is some circular logic. If I think the team can contend in 2026, then they could have contended in 2025. But, if people think the trade deadline "decimated" the team, then the only thing the Twins have to replace is a bullpen and they can contend again. There are some other things that could help in 2026. Keaschall and Lewis being healthy and good. Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper making the leap to the majors. If a new owner wants to spend a bit, finding a solid 1B to maybe fill the hole left by what a healthy Correa could have been. It seems like the "worst" trade was Varland. But Kendry Rojas might be a stud. I still think that if they want to contend in 2026, filling in the bullpen is absolutely possible.

I don't know if its a rebuild or a retool, but its not like they gutted the entire roster. They only gutted the bullpen. It is going to depend on the new owners, there are really two options. Complete rebuild and contend in 2028 or retool and contend right away. If they decide they can't contend, there could be a bigger selloff. Lopez, Ryan, Ober, or you maybe sign Ryan and/or Ober if you think they can anchor a competative rotation in their mid-30's. Jeffers, maybe even Lewis. I think they can contend quickly. Their rotation is really solid, and thats usually the hardest to get right. They have a TON of outfield options (Buxton, Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalaz, Mendez). You'd have to have injury luck finally, but 3B is solid. With Lee, Keaschall and Culpepper, the middle infield is covered. Catcher is covered next year and you likely sign Jeffers longer. 1B is a big hole that if the new owner wanted to spend money, they could do a good job there. You need catching depth, so that is a spot. And finally the bullpen. You've got to get that right, but there some internal options, specifically converting SPs to RPs (Prielipp, Raya, Rojas, Culpepper, Lewis for prospects or Zebby, Festa, Abel for guys who've gotten a taste). Another option is dipping into the OF and SP prospect depth to trade for RPs. This would best be done in the offseason, rather than at the deadline.

Seems like Outman basically replaces Bader, so its almost like Stewart for 2 prospects. Too many lefties, so I wonder if Larnach or Wallner go today (or this offseason)

Depends on how they use him. If they use him in the rights spots, he can be passible. Its not like the Twins bullpen has been lighting it up. If payroll weren't an issue, what bullpen trade would you have made?

Not saying this is a great move, but everyone is negative so I'll try to look towards the positive. 15 ER in 8 IP is awful and frankly its amazing he has a 4.64 ERA. Hopefully its just a blip. I'm not going to lose sleep over who they gave up.

You'd be okay with it if he had those splits, but threw lefthanded?

At the end of the day, I don't think there will be many players that got traded that Twins fans would have liked the cost of, regardless of payroll. Blake Snell would have been nice and maybe could have been had without major prospect capital if money were no object. AJ Puk maybe could have been had. Maybe Tanner Schobel and Yunior Severino could have gotten it done. Kikuchi would have been nice, but thats probably Zebby Matthews, Severino and maybe Martin or Keirsey. Blackburn was attainable but not exciting. Erceg would have cost Lewis and Canterino and a lower prospect. Might have needed Raya instead of Lewis or Centerino. Trevor Rogers would have cost Keaschall and Martin. Not a lot I would say yes to.

You're probably right. If the Twins wanted to make a splash, it was either going to be with Big Money (not happening sadly) or with trading prospects the fans wouldn't have been happy with.

Price for Chafin wasn't bad. Twins could have have made that trade.

And take a look at the trade package the Padres gave up for Scott and Hoeing. Thats like a Twins package of Festa, Zebby Matthew, Tanner Schobel and another young single A prospect.

Pretty similar to a Twins offer of Tanner Schobel and Austin Martin. Marlins probably still take the Orioles deal. To get him, its probably would have had to offer Keaschall and Austin Martin. Either way I wouldn't call it cheap.

Scott and Nardi would be nice. Would take quite a package though. Even average relievers are returning quite a haul. It'd probably take a set of prospects that most fans wouldn't love to see go.

Its basically taking a flyer on finding the next Caleb Thielbar. I'd love for top line talent too. I'd also love to be a professional golfer and make millions of dollars.

For a player to be named later? Sure, I'd be happy with that kind of pickup. Late bloomer. Its not like he had 6 years of mediocrity and then had one good year. His first really major league time led to a very good season.

I'm sure Dobnak is a stop gap and it'll be interesting to see if anyone would have liked the trade cost for any SPs that get moved (so far, I'm guessing not). If Topa were a trade deadline bullpen pickup, fans probably would have been okay with it. Getting him healthy is like a trade deadline pickup.

Orioles gave up their #5 prospect, a 2B/OF, but not a top 100 guy. I'm sure the Marlins asked the Twins for Keaschall and the Twins turned them down. Hopefully the Twins offered Tanner Schobel and the Marlins turned them down. Probably safe to stick with Keaschall. If Keaschall keeps hitting and there isn't room for him on the roster, he'd be a great trade chip next year again.

I didn't say I would make the trade. I was just illustrating how a trade like that could work, money wise. If part of the trade back was a money dump, you'd have to increase the prospect haul to make that happen.