clone52

Keeping Duke is building for the future?

Nice article on Costello. Seems like a baseball guy and looking at his college stats, quite possibly a late bloomer. http://www.sentinelsource.com/sports/local_sports/costello-s-road-to-pro-baseball-led-straight-through-keene/article_40c94fa5-3716-57c5-a01a-2eb75c463f5a.html

Seems like Costello is a pretty interesting prospect. Not in their Top 30, but thats probably because he was a 31st round pick out of Central Connecticut State last year. Has been really productive in Single A this year, although fairly old. He's actually no older than most of the infielders the Twins already have in single A and was a Midwest League All Star. #7 is OPS, #1 in HR, #5 in doubles. Very good K/BB ratio for a power hitter (better ratio that Kirloff, Lewis and anyone on the Kernels roster). In my opinion, seems like a sleeper and with the season he is having, he could easily move up the rankings. Having a far better year than Bechtold at the same age and he was a 5th round pick. Reading more about him, I think this is a big deal. He really wasn't a home run hitter in college, so it looks like he is really filling out.

I'd be A-ok with that plan. However, if he were thrown in to a bigger deal to pull in a bigger prospect, I'm A-ok with that too.

Its probably also time to jump into the Yankees/Red Sox arms race. Yankees got a reliever. Red Sox got a starter. Time to get serious with the Yankees about Lynn, Odorizzi or Gibson. Time to get serious with the Red Sox about Rodney, Duke and even Dozier. Keep working with the Brewers about Dozier and Escobar. Talk to the Phillies about whoever. Talk to the A's about whoever. Try to pry a pitcher from the Yankees, or what about Thairo Estrada (2B/SS buried behind Torres and Gregorius) I just read that the Red Sox are looking for a veteran reliever, maybe a 3B upgrade and questions about Pedroia coming back. What if the Twins offered Escobar, Dozier, Duke and Pressley? Would the Red Sox like that and what would they give up? Escobar would be a termporary upgrade over Devers, Dozier is Pedroia insurance and the bullpen guys are nice.

Your post makes sense if Escobar was not a free agent this year. They might lose him anyway, so why not trade him. Honestly, if you do trade him, you just let Sano sink or swim the rest of the season. If Sano gets hurt, its Adrianza, Astudillo, Motter, Petit or whoever. None of those guys are in the plans as a regular for 2019, but maybe Escobar isn't either, so who really cares. Also, if you trade him, it doesn't eliminate the possibility of signing him in the offseason.

If they don't trade them, I'd absolutely offer one of the 2 a QO. There is very little risk involved. If you give Dozier a QO, he is not going to take it at all. I guarentee he could absolutely get a 3/40 contract from someone and I don't see any way he accepts the QO. A QO for Escobar, would be overpaying. I still think its a better than 50% chance he doesn't accept it and goes for a multi-year deal. Your risk is that he accepts it, but even if he does, what is the big deal? In a perfect world next year, Gordon, Polanco and Sano man 2B, SS and 3B next year. If they all stay healthy, well, you just paid your utility infielder $17 million, but you also probably had a pretty good season, so who cares. In reality, those guys probably won't all stay healthy and have great years. History has shown that Escobar is probably going to play 120 games a year, so he's more than a typically utility infielder.

I mean, if you get a good offer, great, go for it. I wouldn't give him away from peanuts. He's never been the worst reliever in our bullpen. I don't think you get rid of cheap guys who aren't at the lowest rung.

1) Maybe they can swing a deal for a PTBNL or cash. If Santana sucks, you get cash. If Santana is decent, you get this player. If Santana wins the World Series MVP, you get this player. Not sure if that is allowed in the baseball trade world. 2) Heck, you might even bring Morrison back next year, hoping he rebounds a bit and become a trade asset next year. $8 million isn't that expensive. I doubt you keep him and sign Mauer though. 3) Me too. But if some desparate team offers a Top 50 prospect, you might ship him off. Would you trade him for the package the Giants got for Nunez last year? 4) If its a player that is not in your 2019 plan, why not trade for peanuts. And Lance Lynn will get far more than peanuts.

What is the possible logic in trading Pressly or Duffy?

If you aren't going to resign Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, Logan Morison or Fernando Rodney after the season, why wouldn't you sell?

Good point, they'd probably demand Lewis. Hell, I might even do that. The LuCroy trade was basically for a package like Lewis, Gonsalves and and a slightly less prospecty Alex Kiriloff for him. Texas also got the Brewers starting closer back in the deal, so its not quite an even comparison.

It would get it in a heartbeat I think. Does position player who only has 2 more years of control get more than 3 Top 100 prospects? I could defintely be wrong.

Seems like there are some dumb things being posted on here. First off, if Castro weren't hurt, Polanco wasn't suspended and Polanco, Buxton and Sano played like their capable of, this roster has everything you'd want in a playoff team, so don't give me any bull**** that it doesn't. Most likely, the Twins are going to be sellers. Sure, maybe they go on a 3 week hot streak, but probably not. Lets assume they are and discuss things. Starters: Odorizzi is staying. Wouldn't be a hot market for him and you'll still get him relatively cheap next year in arbitration. Berrios - No Gibson - Will still be relatively cheap next year, although the way he's pitching, you might actually dangle him and see what you could get. If someone offered you Alex Kiriloff for Gibson, you might do it. Lynn - You absolutely trade him, not matter what you get. This is a guy with a good history and an ERA of 3.27, K/9 of 9.0 and a K/BB of 3.92 in May/June, I bet you get something decent for him. The Angels are trotting out John Lamb and Felix Pena for starts. Red Sox could probably use a 5th starter. if Yu Davish can't stay healthy, do the Cubs want him? May/June Lance Lynn would be an upgrade for pretty much every playoff contender. Minimal financial commitment, 2 very, very solid months coming back from surgery. Can get him without giving up top prospects. There is no way he doesn't get traded. His May/June stats would make him #13 in ERA, #18 in K/9 and #14 in K/BB. His June WHIP would #25. Those numbers clearly make him a #2-#3 starter on average, and easily a #4 on a lot of playoff contenders. If you do trade Lynn and Gibson, you've got plenty of options. Santana, Slegers, Mejia, Enns and even give Gonsalves a shot, plus Pinedo could conceivably come back. Relievers: Duke: trade for anything if you can get something that you like better at any level in minors. Reed: I think you keep him for the price. Rodney: He's on fire. Trade him if you get something nice. With a team option, maybe you keep him. Magill: Surprisingly good, super cheap forever, keep him. Hildenberger: Unsurprisingly good, super cheap forever, keep him. Pressly: Pretty cheap, can be good, probably not a great market for him, but certainly would dangle him. Rogers: super cheap forever, reasonably good, keep him. Position players are where it gets interesting. Mauer: Won't be traded, will be interesting to see if they want to resign him. All of the sudden, first base doesn't seem like a guarenteed future home of Miguel Sano and if Morrison keeps hitting 0.188, you've got a gaping hole at 1B. Dozier: Are you going to sign Dozier long term? Are you going to give Dozier a $17.4 qualifying offer? If the answer is No to both, you trade him for whatever. Sucks that he's slumping, but what else are you going to do? Finish far back from the playoffs and let him walk? I bet you could get a 17 year old who throws 97 and walks 2 hitters an inning for him. Escobar: You dangle him. If you get wowed, go for it. If not, look into a long term extension. 3 or 4 years at around $10-$13 per year. If he balks at that, give him a qualifying offer. Overpay to have him for a year or gain a draft pick. Rosario/Kepler: Keep no matter what. Buxton/Sano: Sure as hell don't sell low. Castro is still around and Garver is serviceable. However, even if they are sellers, there is one move I'd consider. JT Realmuto: At worst, you could get him for Gonsalves, Gordon and Kiriloff? I think I would. Seems like Gonsalves is no slam dunk. You've got a lot of pitchers semi-near his level. Would hate getting rid of Gordon, but Polanco/Adrianza wouldn't be a terrible middle infield duo and you could sign another one until Lewis is ready. Rosario and Kepler seem like keeps and Buxton is a star if he turns it around, plus you have potential OF depth in the minors with Granite, Wade, Rooker, Badoo, Larnach and Keirsey. All of those guys are just as close to the majors as Kiriloff and its likely that 1 or 2 of them turn into good major league players. Conclusion: If I were the Twins, here is what I'd do. Trade Lance Lynn Trade Zach Duke Trade Fernando Rodney Sign Escobar to a 3 or 4 year deal. Trade Gordon, Gonsalves and Kiriloff (or less if you can) for JT Realmuto. Make those moves and I think you are still in contention in 2019 barring things going horribly for the offense this year.

Its hard to find many catchers that jump up more than 10 games caught between the minors and majors. Realmuto and Mike Zunino jumped 20 games. Buster Posey jumped 10 games. In fact, when healthy, Posey has started between 96 and 122 games a season. Garver on pace for 85-90 seems about right. If he's feeling good later in the season, no reason not to pick up the pace a little bit, but as of now, if the Twins are playoff contenders, does anyone really want to see Garver on the DL in August/September?

You don't think catching more games increases the risk of injuries? Really? Help me find a catcher who had a significant increase in games caught between his final minor league season and first major league season.

Actually, including his time with the Twins, he caught 80 games last year, but he has never caught more than that. 2017: 80 2016: 60 2015: 77 2014: 63 Since Castro got hurt, he's started 16/27 games (not sure if any of those were DH). If he keeps that rate up, he will catch 63 more games which brings his total to 87 games at Catcher, which is more than he ever has. Honestly, if he catches any more than he already is, its extremely likely that he would break down physically.

Far less concerned about his strikeouts than his health. Will he ever stay healthy?

I doubt it will really be an issue. Having everyone healthy and Santana coming back is unlikely to happen. Here are the likeliest options, in my opinion. 1. Santana takes longer to come back. 2. Someone in the rotation gets hurt. 3. Lance Lynn doesn't build upon his good start. 4. Romero starts to struggle and gets sent down. 5. Lynn has another few good starts and becomes trade bait. If he has another few good starts, his 1 year contract could be a very valuable trade chip, especially with Gonsalves, Mejia and even Slegers down in AAA.

Maybe Tampa like Palacios. Maybe other teams though they would DFA him and get him for even less.

Money. Tampa is trying to cut as much money as possible from their payroll. Heck, the released a guy who was an All-star last year and there were rumors that they might have released Odorizzi as well.

Its only a mistake if it prevents them from signing their #1 guy. If they went into the off seasons with 2 goals, to sign a top of the rotation guy and to sign a bottom of the rotation guy with upside, who the hell cares what order it goes in. If its their only move, I don't like it. Ryan's trap wasn't making the small move first, it was not making a bigger move at all.

I still don't see that as negative value. To me, negative value means you could replace him with anybody. Plus, if the talent level overall of the league goes up, one year a guy could be positive value, he could actually improve and have negative value the next year. I'd much rather see what the average #4 or #5 starter is on teams and if Pineda is better or worse than that. If he's better than the average #4 or #5 starter, then it could be a good signing.

So, half the pitchers in major league baseball are negative value?

Great numbers. Get him healthy, behind a solid defense and out of Yankee Stadium.