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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Very happy the Twins promoted Festa early. It seems like they typically wait until after the minor league all star games to promote players. Festa has been dominant enough to need a greater challenge and given his new found velocity should be ready for High A. Really happy for him and hope he finds his way to AA at the end of the season. Gotta believe they will bring someone up from the complex to replace Festa. I wonder who that will be? I liked Enlow's start this week. His lower half looks stronger than I remember and I still think he can be a dominant starting pitcher. He just needs to stay healthy and slowly get stronger and then I can get even more excited about his potential. I was just about ready to call Soularie a bust and he goes out and has a big week. I was hard on Wallner as well as he started out with a near 50% K rate and now he is making me look like an idiot. I think if Wallner can keep the K rate down he will make it to the Majors. he can keep that OPS high if he doesn't K too much. AA and High A are loaded with good pitching. It is going to interesting to see who excels once they get moved up.
  2. Dman
    That was a nice summary. Thanks!
  3. Dman
    I guess for me I want what is best for Byron Buxton. I am not a doctor and don't know how best to treat his knee injury but it seems like extended rest to heal it would make the most sense. Still I get there are incentives to try and reach and maybe complete rest does little more than lighter activity with longer periods of rest when possible. I don't know. I just hope that Buxton and the Twins do what is best for his long term health. I don't know if I have watched a more exciting Twins player than Buck. Maybe Pucket in his hey day as a centerfielder? I just love what he brings to this team. I am not much of a risk taker and I would want to make sure that knee is in better shape before putting him out there. While Celestino doesn't have Buck's power he has been pretty solid at the plate and in the field. Certainly not the drop off we have had in years past. We could rely on him for while if needed. I just don't love the idea of having him out there and not 100% especially with a knee issue. I am sure it has been discussed and all parties are fine with the plan that is in place. I just hope it is the best plan for long term health not for monetary incentives or the win lose column.
  4. Dman
    Agreed with shifting speed isn't as large a liability as some other positions. When watching Miller during spring training he looked like a regular out there on the field as a 19 year old. He gobbled up ground balls and made good throws. I don't think he is making many error's this year, although I haven't checked into that. While I am no scout with what little I have seen it seems to me his defense is essentially MLB ready right now. I have to say I have been surprised at how well he looks on both sides of the ball. Obviously be needs more experience against advanced pitching and needs to grow into more power but he looks rock solid for his first year in pro ball.
  5. Dman
    I think those concerns from Scouts etc. are mainly based on speed. As we all know Buxton is one of the fastest players in baseball and this helps make his defense elite because he can get to balls that other center fielders cannot. Rodriguez has 55 speed and generally guys that are going to stick in center are a bit faster than that. Also as players move from teenager to more physically developed they tend to get slower not faster so starting out as 55 runner is fine for now but if he gets slower which is more likely than not he becomes a greater defensive liability in center. You can play him there but what are you willing to give up defensively to do it? Same goes for Miller who is a 50 runner. Usually guys that make it at that position start as 60 runners. Now Miller has really good actions at short. Sets his feet well gets good speed on his throws and has good instincts but will that be enough in the end? I know Correa isn't the fastest shortstop and with the way they shift the infield maybe speed isn't as large of an issue at short anymore but having a guy with Lewis's speed in that spot is pretty nice. He should be able to cover more ground and get to balls that Miller just won't be able to catch up to. I know Fangraphs and others had Celestino as a borderline center fielder early in his career and he is doing just fine in center and MLB.com has him as a 55 runner. I think the projections don't mean that Rodriguez and Millers can't stay up the middle it is just that the odds are not in their favor to do so given the speed generally required to be above average to elite at those positions.
  6. Dman
    Just wanted to point out that Cody Lawyeryson had an 11.12 ERA and a WHIP of 1.94 on April 22nd. After not a allowing a run his last 12 innings his ERA is back down to 3.57 and WHIP is at .91. He has been pitching really well since that early season blip. His longest outing this year has been 4 innings and I wonder if they feel they can get more out of him as a pen arm? At any rate just another really good under the radar arm at High A that makes that team special. Stankiewicz struggled a bit giving up 7 hits and 1 walk in just 5 innings so not a great outing. Still he managed to only give up 2 runs. Looks like it might take some time for him to adjust to the new level. The Kernals faced a tough pitcher and it showed as they only managed 3 hits. Hopefully with the off day they can regroup and get the bats going again. Raya was back to his dominant ways pitching 4 no hit innings in 44 pitches. Only two K's but an incredibly efficient outing. Twins are keeping his pitch count low for now but he could be a special arm moving forward. Nowlin equally as good giving up just 1 hit and striking out 4 in three innings. Rucker has gotten his groove back and working toward getting that OPS to 800. Still a ways to go but nice to see some hits falling in. Miller and Rodriquez are the stars of that team though. As they are both doing well as 19 year old's. Rodriguez leads the team with his 900 OPS and he has nearly as many walks as K's so a balanced approach. Miller lacks power so his OPS is lower but has a balanced approach as well. The extra beauty of Miller is that he is a switch hitter. So far both are good defenders at up the middle positions although both have question marks about whether they can stay in those up the middle spots. I was low on Miller but so far it looks like I am going to be more wrong than right about him which is a good thing.
  7. Dman
    Mikey Perez has had his share of struggles but the bat has been coming around recently. I worry a little bit about the stats as Palm Beach doesn't seem to have the greatest pitching. Still hits are hits and it nice to see Mikey have a very good night. Still loving what Miller is doing his first season in MiLB. He took three more walks. Having a good eye at the plate is so key to success and even though his power is limited right now he still has an 800 OPS. Rodriguez is still the star of that lineup though with 3 more hits and a 900 OPS he is a dangerous hitter. I was a tough night for Baez who is trying to replace Fedko as he went 0 for 5 with 2 K's and left 5 men on. Only player to leave more guys on base was you guessed it Keoni Cavaco who left 7 men on base but he did manage a hit at least. Gipson long keeps humming a long and he has been a favorite of mine for a while now. However, it seems like Headrick might be even better. Still nice to see SGL keeping that ERA down and the K's up. Will be interesting to see how he handles AA.
  8. Dman
    Really happy they decided to move Fedko up a little early. He is slightly old for the level and he has a good K-rate to walk ratio. He is slugging .500 with a .900 OPS. He is ready for the next level no need to wait IMO. Thanks FO or whoever makes these decisions for moving him up. Have to say I rarely say I am excited about a hitter taken in the 12th round but I think Fedko has a real good chance as a 4th outfielder and maybe more if the bat stays elite through the levels. That was a really good pick by the Twins for that range. Also happy about the Smeltzer promotion. He deserves another chance to prove he is healthy now and can contribute. He worries me a little bit at the MLB level but might as well find out what he can do. He likely wouldn't survive Rule V next year if his numbers continued to be as good as they are. I assume this means Paddack in getting TJ surgery or will be out for an extended period of time? Swain is another player they need to move up. He is 24 already and still at Low A with absolutely dominant numbers. I get that maybe there isn't room at High A but it would be nice to move him along and see what he has before he turns 30. Sabato is still scuffling and I don't know why they keep batting him in the 4 spot when Mack would be better there. Soularie has been brutal in pro ball as well and they were our 1st and 2nd round picks in 2020. Still time to turn things around but they need to get going. Tough night for the pitcher's in the system but baseball is a game of up's and downs. Hopefully they are learning what works and what doesn't. Should be another good night tonight.
  9. Dman
    The thing I don't understand about Pagan is he keeps throwing the same pitch in basically the same place down in the zone for a ball expecting the batter to swing but they seem to know not to swing at much of anything he throws until he has thrown at least one strike. That brings up another point which is that he seems to rarely be ahead in the count which gives the batter the advantage. He litterly needs to throw more strikes and if he could work up in the zone that might help him as well. When he has been in the zone it seems like hard contact has been made so I can see why he likes to nibble but in the end I don't think that will be a recipe for success. This article gives me hope that maybe he can turn things around but right now I will believe when I see it and I haven't seen dominance so far. For whatever reason it seems like whoever the Twins pick for a pseudo closer they seem to struggle. Even Rogers seemed to struggle in the role last year. Hopefully Pagan builds some confidence and gets back in the zone literally and figuratively.
  10. Dman
    I keep worrying about CES and his K rate and lack of walks but his numbers in almost the same number of games are the same as last year, so whatever strategy he employs it seems to be working. I probably don't appreciate the fact that he is hitting nearly 400 enough but it feels like there is room for him to be even better. Prato is finally back to getting hits and Camargo keeps crushing baseballs. Wander with the big night but he hasn't had an OPS over 600 in the last 4 years. Maybe this is the year it all clicks? There are 5 guys at AA with OPS's over 800 and Martin is not one of them. Steer, Jullien, Wallner, Bechtold and Isola are making life tough for opposing pitchers. I can see why they are winning so many games.
  11. Dman
    Kind of hoping Collier or Holiday fall to the Twins at 8. Would really like a high school bat since we have so many bats ready at the upper levels already. It feels like Jace Jung is going to be the best left at 8 unless a team ahead of us goes pitching. I Really liked Prielipp as an upside pick. Not sure pick number 8 is the right spot but he has an elite change already TJ is out of the way. He could be a fast mover with a chance to be an elite pitcher. He does have a slight frame from what I understand and the Twins seem to do well picking pitchers down the line so probably a long shot in a lot of ways. I do like the arm though.
  12. Dman
    Hoping he finds that out pitch. That is pretty much the only thing holding him back IMO. Would be really nice if he was an MLB answer sooner rather than later. Would love to see him up with the Twins mid season. Hopefully he continues to be as good or better than he has been.
  13. Dman
    I am concerned about CES as well but I have been saying his BABIP is too high and K rate too high for two years now and he still has the best OPS in the system. We will find out if he will succumb to more and better breaking balls and off speed stuff as he moves up but to this point he just keeps on producing. I thought the knock on him was the plane of his swing or something like that. I thought that is why he fell to the 4th round and he may have fallen further if the Twins didn't take him there. I also think that scouting report said they thought he would have more trouble as he moved up and especially at the MLB level. Obviously the Twins disagreed with that assessment and so far they appear to be right. He is one of if not the best hitter in the minors for the Twins right now.
  14. Dman
    Funny the other day I was going to start talking about CES being in a slump and then he goes out and has a three hit game. Prato has been scuffling at the plate too and I hope he starts hitting soon as well. Lawyerson has been on a tear recently. He started off a bit off and has really put together back to back elite outings. So many good pitchers at high A there is no way they can keep them all from rule V. I never really understood the Travis Adams pick at number 6. He didn't have good K number in college and hasn't had a good K/9 so far in pro ball either. Maybe someone can fill me in is he great ground ball guy? Or his stuff is good at missing barrels? The WHIP and ERA are really good so he is getting good results just wondering what kind of pitcher he is or is supposed to be. I have been watching Swain and he has been dominant so far this year as well. Lots of under the radar guys are having pretty good seasons. Lot's of fun watching guys in the system this year.
  15. Dman
    Festa has been pretty consistent all year. A couple of hits. A run or two and more K's than innings pitched. However, Six no hit innings while K'ing nearly 2 batters per inning is very impressive stuff. I guess he wanted to take things up a level? This is the first I have heard of him hitting 99 on the gun. He must have been feeling it last night. While I could see Festa No hitting the Cardinals I thought Nowlin would for sure give it up. He is giving up more hits than innings pitched to this point and tons of walks as well. It all came together though for an impressive pitching performance. Happy for those guys and the legend of Festa continues to grow. Headrick just keeps doing his thing Pitching into the 5th with no runs allowed. It was an off night for him as he only K'd about 1 batter per inning rather than 2, lol. Camargo has been heating up and had another home run as well. He has been quiet about doing it but Alex Isola bumped his BA to 300 and OPS to 900 at AA. Pretty nice line for a catcher at AA. Not sure where his defense is at but he is starting to look like he could make it to MLB at some point. Another nice night for the affiliates.
  16. Dman
    Been watching Mark for a long time. Last year he really turned it up a notch. Really glad he gets to join the Twins and make the Majors. Seems like he has worked so hard and he is right on the cusp of long term 4th outfielder status. I hope he does well and will be cheering for him.
  17. Dman
    Things are going to even out and he isn't going to end up "this good" but He has saved the Twins from at least three disasters this season already so hopefully he can keep that going. Surprisingly he has been the pen's most consistent arm to this point. Who knew the guy with the lowest velocity and funky delivery would be the best arm in the pen for the month of April? Right now I love this guy. Can he keep it going that is anybody's guess.
  18. Dman
    I am with you on Carroll when he fell to the Twins spot in the draft I knew he was the pick. A high ceiling bat with the only knock at the time being power as scouts were unsure his line drive swing approach would translate to power. They reached for a defensive stud with an unproven bat instead and here we are. The first round really needs to be about bat first players and if they are high school age I would discount power projections as even the Twins got Steer the onbase machine to reach his power potential. Going with tools and suspect bat in the first round generally is a recipe for disaster. I hope the Twins have learned their lesson. With so many guys graduating or close to making the big club this year is going to be an important draft year. I hope they make some good picks and find some good bats.
  19. Dman
    I know I wasn't super high on the pick but I am really impressed with Noah Miller. Really his first full year and he appears very well rounded offensively. He has a near 20% walk rate with a 25% K rate so a very balanced approach. He is putting the ball in play a lot and the only thing lacking is power but that is sure to come given his build and as he grows into the man muscles. Millers profile is what I wish Keoni Cavaco could be. With Rodriguez and Rosario there are three young hitters that have great potential. Not sure what happened to Urbina but hoping that they get him going as well. I have been one of the lowest posters on Wallner mainly because of his K rate. I get that he has light tower power but he has badly needed plate discipline otherwise he just gets himself out far too often. His K rate was up to 50% to start the season in MiLB and that rate won't get you to MLB. He started taking walks and it seemed like not long after that things started clicking. I hope he keeps it up because he can mash. Please, please Matt try to wait for pitches in the zone. His numbers this week are off the charts good I just hope he keeps the K's down to a manageable level. He has no trouble reaching his power potential in games and could be a valuable power hitter for the Twins, I still really like this Stancewiecz guy. He bet on himself in 2020 and I really want to see him make it. He is off to a good start at high A and hoping he makes it AA yet this year as well. I can't figure Headrick out. That K rate is crazy for a starter. I wish I knew more about the guy and how he pitches as he has been crazy good this year. I am a big fan of SGL but he is outshining him right now. The High A club has some really good pitchers so I can see why they have been so successful to start the year. Another great writeup Seth I love these weekly reports and lot's of prospects are playing well.
  20. Dman
    Yeah unfortunately the Twins don't have a lot of shortstop depth beyond Lewis which is why he is such an important player for them. I was pretty high on Palacios last year but he isn't hitting all that much better than Gordon and he is at AAA not the Majors. So why not just keep Gordon where he is unless you fancy a right handed bat. Palacios would provide better D at short but not the all around utility Gordon provides in the outfield. Steer can play short from what I understand but he hasn't played there much and he isn't real fast. Jullien and Martin can't be trusted to play there at all really. I think you have to go all the way down to A ball and Miller to find another player capable of playing short at a reliable level and he might slow down as he moves up hard to say. So I get your point. Not that Gordon is a top notch Shortstop himself but he can at least play there. I still think he is vulnerable unless he can prove he can do more with the bat.
  21. Dman
    Hard for me to figure out where Gordon fits on this team. He has very good defensive versatility as he can play all infield positions and outfield positions and not lose much from a defensive standpoint except for maybe short. He is also one of the few players who can steal a base when needed. Still the bat seems light to me. He doesn't have much power and isn't a great OBP guy either. His K rate wasn't horrible in 2021 and he puts the ball in play at a decent clip but his OPS has been in the 600 level at the MLB level. With Celestino proving he can cover the outfield and Miranda\Arraez the infield. With Steer, Martin and Jullien in the wings he is going to need to hit more to save his job IMO. He seems like a well liked player but at some point you have to provide offensive value or someone who does will take your place. His versatility will keep him around but IMO not forever.
  22. Dman
    Gotta say I wasn't a huge Sonny Gray fan but the way he can get the ball to go horizontal and end up in the zone was very impressive. Honestly if he stays healthy he could be a big difference maker.
  23. Dman
    You were not alone. Before this year he didn't really have an out pitch. He seemed to always end up in these long battles with batters and his pitch count would sore. This year he really has that slider working and he is getting swings and misses when he sends it horizontally outside to righties. I don't want to get too crazy high on him just yet but he has been looking pretty elite recently. Sure could use another Taylor Rogers type arm in the pen and if can keep his current mojo I think he can be that good.
  24. Dman
    Was super impressed with Millers 4 for 4 night. He has been putting balls in play but not seeing great results so was nice to see him have a great game. It is really hard to go 4 for 4. Hopefully Cavaco can catch some of that magic. Stankewiecz just keeps rolling. Hopefully another month of great results and he gets moved to AA where he belongs. I guess the one question I have is why he didn't get more innings in A ball last year? Was he hurt? At any rate hopefully he makes up for lost time and is another pitcher on the rise.
  25. Dman
    Going to be interesting to see how Lewis does at the Big league level. It looks like A lot of the young guys we were waiting on are finding their way to the Majors this year. The Twins continue to build for 2023 and beyond. I wish Royce the best. Considering all the adversity he has faced he deserves something to go his way for a change. He is a big part of this teams future plans so would be nice to see him do well. I guess we will know more soon enough.
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