Dman

If the Twins ended up with Correa I would have a lot of crow to eat. I still think the Mets get it done. Borras likely leveraging the Mets using the Twins offer as the bottom. If the Mets don't match then onto the Twins I would guess. The Lowest they can go is the Minnesota offer if you ask me. If the Mets don't match the Twins offer then I have to believe the Twins will get another chance. This has to be one of the craziest things to happen in Free Agency ever.

I think with boards like this and being able to follow the farm there is always hope for another Twins World Series team at some point. Pretty sure I will always follow the Twins maybe not as close as I do right now but I will be listening\Watching. With the money disparity it is getting harder to watch the top revenue teams scoop up all the talent while the lower level teams essentially have to sit out free agency. Still hope is hard to kill and I will hope this team can find a way to beat the odds.

Yeah I agree he always had trouble as a starter making it through a season even in the minors. If they wreck his arm as a starter and he needs TJ he could be out for two years. He made it through a full season in the pen at the MLB level with minimal issues and is an elite arm in that role. Do you want to risk losing your elite shutdown arm for a chance for him to do something he never really proved he could do in the minors? If it were me and I admit to being risk averse but I would keep him where he is. The other issue is he never really did develop that solid third pitch he needed to be a starter so he might not have the same level of success he has had as a reliever. And finally how many guys are there in MLB that can throw 100MPH fairly consistently as a starter (maybe Greene)? I guess I am not aware of any so again I think reliever is the right role for Duran.

I don't know if you have been following Aaron Judge much but he is a career .284 hitter who K's about 28% of the time and just signed a contract to be the highest paid position player in baseball. I think that should tell you what teams value and it isn't batting average, it is OPS. I like Arraez a lot. Love his plate approach, his enthusiasm, and his work ethic. However, I would take Judge over Arraez any day of the week because with his power he can impact the game in ways Arraez just can't. Rodriquez is only in A ball but if he essentially maintains that profile all the way up he has a more valuable skillset than Arreaz at least the way baseball is played today. Granted Arraez can help the MLB team right now. Rodriguez could be years away yet hard to say.

While Kirilloff and and Larnach have more value they also haven't been much worse or better than Kepler at the plate and they have a lot more years of control left. The Twins thing to do would be to move the higher salaried player IMO. Also Keplers ceiling appears to be known while Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner are somewhat unknowns at this point. Certainly they could trade anyone of those players for the right deal I just think Kepler makes the most sense.

I go back and forth on Max's trade value. I mean several teams could have had a Max type player in Gallo for just money and yet the Twins managed to snag Gallo for a one year 11M contract. Max only costs 2.5M less and you have to give up trade capital as well. To me that says his market value might be lower than I was hoping. Still Max shows strong underlying numbers in a lot of area's and if the Yankee's did grab him with the short right field porch it could be a difference maker for Max. Just a few extra HR's that make it over that wall adds to his OBP and Slugging and I bet those numbers start looking much better. If the Twins do trade Max to the Yankee's they better make it hurt because I have a feeling he could have a monster season in the Bronx. I do agree with Mike though the Twins need to find a decent return or they might as well just hang onto Max. His value could increase by the deadline anyway. We will see if some team pony's up but it might be a while as teams continue to fill out rosters with FA's and decide what to spend there tradable assets on. Unless the Twins get a deal they deem to good to pass up I would probably hang onto Max.

Sorry just meant I don't think the Twins will trade him unless they get something worthwhile back.

I could be wrong but I don't see the Twins trading Kep for a bag of balls. A team is going to have to give them something decent to move him otherwise they can just try and build his value back and depending on where they are do a deadline deal. I agree they could still use him for depth if they want to. They do have a lot of outfielders on the 40 man though. Would hate to see the Yankee's get him as so many Twins seem to perform well once there. If they do trade him to the Yankee's they need to get something better back than John Ryan Murphy.

This is a very balanced synopsis, Thanks! Hopefully the young guys get started and make this team tough to beat.

In comparison to Max, Gallo seems to perform just a little bit better in OBP, SLG and ultimately OPS. Gallo's batting average is terrible and coupled with the K's he will be a rally killer more often than not IMO. The good defense does help a lot though as it makes him valuable beyond his bat. He might be a slight upgrade over Max but not much that I can see. Will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. If he can bounce back it would really help this team so I hope he does find his HR stroke again.

Other than Kepler I think the team pretty much remains the same and they might even hang onto Kepler if they can't find the right return. Will have to see how desperate Miami is to trade later on but if they want MLB players like Polanco or Arraez then those talks will be tough. The Twins did a bunch of trading to get Maeda, Mahle and Gray I guess I don't know why they would give up on that now by trading them before the season starts. Last years flawed and injury riddled team was in first place in the division for most of the first half. I think they role with what they have and see how things develop. Also if one or all of Maeda, Mahle and Gray have really good years they all could be QO candidates. So any return would need to keep that in mind. It could be that none of them are worthy of a QO as well but still it seems worth while to wait on rebuild scenario's until we see how this team as constructed works out.

Some really great comments on this topic. I think part of the issue that Mike brought up is perception (i.e what should the expectation of the pipeline be). The other part is that Falvey from Cleveland was supposed to do in Minnesota what he had helped do in Cleveland and to this point the pitching pipeline seems underwhelming, at least IMO. While ERA is just one piece in 2022 as a team Cleveland ranked tied for 5th and the Twins were 19th in team ERA. Pretty much all the teams in the top 10 of that stat went to the playoffs. What is my point? Whatever the FO is doing whether trading for guys or developing them they appear to be doing it worse than league average at the MLB level. Yep lots of injuries last year and we never really did get to use Mahle much but the FO needs to do better than this on the pitching side. I also want to highlight a point KirbyDome89 made. While I get that being balanced in the draft can be a good thing at some point when you have a deficiency I think you should focus more on that area. The Twins have focused on bats early in the draft and generally taken pitching later. That is fine if that strategy works out but now the team has a glut of hitters and not the same level of pitching to go with it. I also want to point out that the one year the Twins broke this trend in 2021 they took Petty, Hajjar and Povich in rounds 1,2, and 3 and what did they use as trade currency. Yep the pitchers picked in the higher rounds. I think the Twins need to take more swings at pitching in the draft. In 2021 Cleveland picked 18 pitchers in a 20 round draft. When you have a deficiency you need to take more shots at what you need and you should do it on the premium talent early in the draft as well as late. With all the trades the pitching pipeline further down at high A is essentially broken so there will be a gap there now. While the Twins have a pitching pipeline it hasn't been enough to lift this team where it needs to go and that has been the difference between the Twins and Cleveland. I think that is why so many of us feel it is broken or not working well. Love the positive vibs Mike. There is some success and some good things coming, I hope, but right now today it is hard to feel good about it.

Well I guess if you want a club house cancer Bauer is a good bet. His own team mates on the Dodgers wanted the FO to get rid of him even before the issue that got him suspended. If the Dodgers don't want him back I pity the team that grabs him. Maybe his ordeal was a wake up call, hard to say but old dogs are hard to change. I do believe in second chances but given the circumstances I don't think the Twins can take that kind of chance as they are about a little over a year after struggling with club house vibs of there own. Bauer would be a pass for me.

Not much FA action in the entire central this year. Seems like the White Sox are more interested in moving salary than anything else this year. If the Twins get a starter it needs to be a front of the rotation type of pitcher or they might as well stick with what they have. Once again they appear to have pitching depth with Gray, Maeda, Mahle, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Varland and SWR with Paddack back maybe mid year. So lot's of 5th starter material to work with. They can't be counted on but if Balazovic, Enlow and Hedrick improve dramatically they could be depth as well. If they can't find a deal they like I can see them standing pat. If the FO thinks Polanco is a guy that gets it done not sure why they would hesitate. They would still have Arraez they can plug in there and Jullien seems likely to be ready for 2nd at some point next year and they also have Martin who can play there and Lee might be an option at Short or second so they are going to have to move somebody off this team at some point. Switch hitters are hard to come by but if the return is front of the rotation pitcher that this team desperately needs then I think they need to do it. Honestly unless they get a deal they like I think the Twins will stand pat with what they have. It isn't sexy but might be enough to take the central if this team can find a way to hit lefties.

I agree with you. Boegarts got a 280M deal and he was supposed to be second fiddle to Correa. The minimum I mean minimum had to be a 300M deal. If they were never going to go there it seemed hard to believe this was ever going to get done. Sorry but I don't buy Seth's theories on this. They had Correa all year last year what due diligence was left? If there was any then that makes this FO look incompetent IMO. If the Twins really wanted Correa they likely could have had him by adding an Option year where he gets 30M if the keep him and 15M to buy him out. That gets them over the 300M guaranteed and potentially matches the Mets offer. Maybe the Mets would have moved the bar further out then hard to say but I would have a lot more respect for their efforts if they had done that. I will say Boras feeling the need to move off of San Fran so quickly is odd and doesn't play well. As noted by others he is notoriously patient in making deals. Certainly seems like he could have given them through Christmas to make a decision. Still I guess with the deal falling through and Correa being aced out late in market last year he might not have wanted to wait for what he might have felt was an inevitable "no deal" from the Giants. It would have been hard to renegotiate with the Giants if they no longer wanted to go 13 years as it could set a precedent for teams outbidding and then exclusively negotiating after "finding something" in the physical. He also might have just been pissed and wanted to hurt SF by moving Correa elsewhere. Hard to say what the motivation might have been but I will agree with others that is suspicious. At any rate I am not too upset the Twins didn't get Correa for 10 years. Those last 3 to 4 to 5 years of talking what a dead weight he is would have sucked. However, my point stands. If this FO really wanted Correa I think they could have had him but the bar was 300M. They should have known that from the beginning. If they were not going to go there they probably had no business even bidding.

At this point In the end this whole thing seemed like a lose\lose for the FO. This board has already given them grief for signing guys that had potential injury concerns. Upping the offer after another team gave pause to how long Correa might last seems like a bad idea for a small market team. I mean even the generally free spending Giant didn't want to take on the risk why would the Twins? I don't really blame the FO not getting back into this mess if they even had much of a chance anyway. Cohen would have out bid them almost no matter what they put out there for a number. If Correa "really" wanted to be in Minnesota he could have taken a small discount to do it. He chose not to and that tells me all I need to know. Time to just move on.

Yeah I think most likely the Twins said last offer was it. I think they felt plenty uncomfortable offering that contract and with some new medical concerns I doubt they were willing to go higher. At any rate even if they had moved to 300M Cohen would have just upped the anti IMO. From what I have read he is a pretty persuasive guy and willing to put his money where his mouth is. The Mets will be in it every year and Correa just a cog there. If he went with the Twins likely a lot of losing in his future and very limited opportunities to be on the big stage for the world series. Seems like a no brainer to go to the Mets even if the contracts were equal to me. Even if the Twins paid more he might have gone to the Mets All Star team as the game is a lot more fun when you are winning.

Boy was I wrong. I thought the Giants would keep Correa for sure. Can't believe the Mets got it done essentially paying 52M per year for Correa. That is going to be one tough team I can see why Correa wanted to go there. The Mets will need to keep those arms healthy and they have some older arms but if they do they look World Series bound to me.

I don't know that I am convinced this is a deal breaker for SF. They might want to restructure with option years or something hard to say but I think at the end of the day this gets done. He was fine last year and he was never making it the full 13 years they gave him anyway. Not aware of his ankle being an issue more his back. We will see but I can't see SF backing out now.

I think you can depend on Gordon for a mid 700 OPS. He has been right around those numbers most of his career and as he adjusted a tick better at times. He is a solid defender at all outfield positions and a plus defender in left field. Probably plus at 2nd base as well but he doesn't get much time there. I was ready to trade him going in to last year but once truly healthy he had a really good year. Hoping for more of the same as he is an important part of this team now.

This is a good point. You definitely could argue they could have traded Kepler and been in better shape by getting something for one of their left handed outfielders and not even Signing Gallo. There are too many outfielders on the 40 man as it is. Adding another doesn't make much sense unless of course they have trades in place that involve more outfielder's than just Kepler. I am all for knowing what we have in Larnach and Kirilloff but the fact they Haven't been healthy even close to a full season makes it hard to trust they can\will make it. With Kirilloffs wrist issues he might never make it. Wallner's D in right is a definite step down from Kepler so I can see why the FO might have wanted something a little more solid there at least to start the season. Still in a vacuum I think you make a good point.

After looking into it more I gave this one a C. I get that he appears to be a fairly equal stand in if they trade Kepler. If he does rebound, and that is a big if, then my grade is likely too low. Also if they get something that helps the team by dealing Kepler that changes the perception of this trade some. With Gallo they have a vet bat to Bridge the kids (Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner) and make sure they can play at the MLB level. That is if we are not getting last years Joey Gallo. Still this move would have looked better if they had found a right handed bat for right field as we have none right now. The closest one in the system if he keeps things going would be Urbina who starts at High A next year. In a vacuum I hate this deal but I do want to wait and see how everything falls into place before going too negative on this one. All in all it just wasn't a deal I was looking for the Twins to make as I don't see how it really makes the team that much better. If what they get with Kepler or package with Kepler makes a big difference I look at this differently. Still wish he was a right handed bat.

I got to tell you I am starting to come around on your theory. These mid guys generally are not difference makers and at 11 to 15 mil per pop they are not cheap either.

It is most likely going to be Mark Contreras coming off the the 40 man, but I also see a Kepler trade in the future as well.

So you need a right handed bat in the outfield and you go and get another left handed bat with high K numbers. Just what we needed? Obviously this means Kepler is being traded for sure. Just a matter of time. Not the news I was hoping to hear. The Twins must see a rebound coming because his OPS was worse than Keplers last year and he isn't the defender Kepler is either. His career batting average is .199 so there is that to look forward too.