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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah I like this signing more than most. He's not a hard thrower so the junk is going to have to work, but that's a mighty fine ERA at AAA. I can see why the Tigers took the money rather than adding him though. Without a strong fastball it's really hard to make it. He also doesn't have great control from what I understand. We'll see how it works out soon enough. Hoping its another great find, but the odds seem long as usual.
  2. Dman
    Seemed pretty unanimous on the board that people liked the Caratini signing as it seemed like Jeffers would be gone at the deadline or at least end of the season. The surprising part was that the Twins won the bidding war for him and then had too many catchers and luckily slipped Jackson through Waivers. He was pretty bad at the plate in April and May so even after his amazing 1.050 OPS in June his current OPS sits at .704 which is a shade under what I'd hoped he be at for the season. Was hoping he would more consistently be a .750 OPS bat. Still time to get there, but he has been what the Twins needed and I bet there are teams out there that wish they had him now. Jackson has been fine in a SSS as well. The Twins can't carry three catchers for long so I wouldn't be surprised to see an early trade not long after the draft for Jeffers.
  3. Dman
    I am sympathetic to this view. We have some nice assets having good years creating likely good to great value on the trade market. It's hard to pass that up for a chance at a wild card spot. Still here are some things I've had to come to consider since they have gotten close to .500. There is no team in the American League this Twins team can't beat. We have two high end arms in Ryan and Bradley with Maybe Prielipp and Matthews as solid pieces behind them. The Twins Offense is the best in the American league and the pen can be fortified in the post season using starters in the pen or supplemented at the trade deadline. It's a strange year in that any team can beat any team in the AL. The toughest two teams for the Twins have been Tampa who won some close games and Chicago who just played better than the Twins in those series. The Twins have beaten the Yankee's, Houston, Texas Etc. so they seem just as likely to go on a run as any of those teams. I remember that 1987 team going to Toronto to get pummeled in the playoffs and they pulled out a world series win with OK pitching and a great offense. I don't know that I see this team beating the Dodgers or Atlanta, but they look like they can hang with anyone in the American league. Point number 2. Let's say they don't sell and it all falls apart and they miss the playoffs this year. Next year they can bring it back with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews with hopefully a healthy Abel and Rojas with time to strengthen the pen in the offseason. They also will have plenty of young bats waiting in the wings if injuries strike there and the guys who got chances this year should be better next year after figuring some things out this year. They could field a strong team in 2027 even if the season gets shortened. So I am torn. This team could slump just like the Yankee's have and this could all change at the end of the month, but as things stand they look about good as anyone else IMO. Let's see if they can handle Cleveland and go from there.
  4. Dman
    It's a bit premature to go either way right now, but as they approach a .500 record it will be hard to see them as sellers. Cleveland has been a house of horrors for this team and they are playing really well. If the Twins manage to take that series I'd say things bode well for them to the deadline. Still right after the Deadline they face the Cubs and Cleveland so if they come out slow it will dampen their chances. As for what they would need if buyers it seems like pen help would be the most needed. I don't think I would mess with the hitters as most all of them have been producing and they are a tight group. Don't mess with what is working. While given the injuries they might need a rotation arm I'd resist doing that as the price is so steep. Just getting a pen arm or two at the deadline is going to be an overpay, but I think they'd get the most bang for their buck getting a shut down pen arm and another arm better than what they currently have. It's possible they could Trade Jeffers for a legit pen arm or an arm at AAA that is close to ready from another team. We'll see how things shake out. They have to get to .500 or close to it first.
  5. Dman
    You don't throw away .800 OPS bats. There are so few players that can hit that mark. I get it we all saw him be a rally killer for this offense early in the season with his strike outs and uncompetitive at bats. Still that .850 OPS bat is in there somewhere. Those are the bats that can carry a team. Move on from him and it might be Rooker part two. The Twins do have a problem though. With Rodriguez out of options and Roden closing in as a hot bat and good defender there isn't gonna be room for both Wallner and Larnach. One of those two has to go. I don't know which one as I love the consistently good at bats Trevor has, but with Lewis pretty solidly at first base there is only gonna be room for one DH spot so one of those two needs to move on.
  6. Dman
    I had them losing two out of three to Houston and the Yankee's, but the Twins went out there and proved me wrong. That is three straight series wins after being Swept by the Dodgers. If this team works its way to around .500 I just don't see them being sellers. This offense has been very surprising. Lot's of quality at bats leading to walks and hits. HR power is there too especially when Buck is in the lineup. Still if Matthews is out and Prielipp being babied along is there enough juice with Ryan and Bradley to keep this up? Gonna need Ober to better than the Ober we saw early in the season and hopefully they get Prielipp enough rest over the All Star break to keep going. The pen has been holding. It's gonna be a tight rope act to make it and we'll see where they are at the end of July, but they are still in the hunt for a playoff spot.
  7. Dman
    I have enjoyed watching Rozek most his pro career, but every time I start to think he should be promoted or is worth adding he seems to just blow up. He doesn't throw real hard and is your typical crafty lefty. I don't know how his arm would play at the MLB level, but it can't be much worse than Funderburk or Rogers. We'll see how things go as the deadline approaches, but he has worked hard and proven he has the stuff to get guys out. I wouldn't mind seeing him get a chance to prove what he can or can't do at the MLB level. Reitz is intriguing. Not sure what to think just yet and got hit kind of hard his last time out. I always thought it might take some time and that might be more reliever than starter. He's off to a good start though and hopefully his stuff plays up. Nice to Raya get his shot. I sure hope he can be a Morris like arm out of the pen. We need some guys to step up badly in the pen. He has the pitches. Hopefully he trusts them and moves them around the zone enough to become a late inning arm.
  8. Dman
    Hasn't Rojas been on the IL a couple of times already this year. I'd say the reason they are being careful is to keep him healthy. The Twins are in a tough spot with Rojas IMO. While a starter has more value they need to likely keep his innings down to protect his arm and putting him in the pen could jeopardize his development as a starter to some degree. Given the Twins need both a starter and bullpen help they sure could use him in either role. Maybe they keep the piggy back with Paredes or maybe they just give him a pen role for now. Hard to say, but it seems hard to see him starting much this year given the control issues and likely pitch limits he will be on. A bullpen role might be the way to go given they need help there. Or if this season goes south in the next couple of weeks it won't matter as they will be out of contention and they can develop him without rushing him. Have to wait and see how the season goes and how badly they think they need him in one of those two roles.
  9. Dman
    I can see Lackey being there at 3. Just like with Houston there are questions about his power\EV's, but he covers the plate well. You can juggle any of the top three in any order, but they remain the top three. Not sure I see the Twins picking Ruiz at 43. While the plus defense is nice they seem to be a team that likes a good bat with good EV's early in the draft. Not saying it would be a bad pick, just that I don't see them picking him. Renfrow seems like a Twinsy pick. He was an arm that looked like he might be late first round or early second, but had a disappointing year and fell down boards. The Twins don't seem to care much about season results and more about plus pitches or what they perceive they can turn into plus pitches. It's a good frame and solid delivery. He could be a pick there or in the third. The Twins love their power hitters, but I wouldn't take Peterson at least not there. Our competition in the division seem to be focusing on better athletes to allow for plus defense and speed to put pressure on opposing defenses. This pick doesn't help with that. I'd go arm again here and likely the rest of the way. The system is short on quality arms from High A to AAA right now and it is reflected in how poor the affiliates are doing at high A and AA. If they want bats with the first two picks that's fine by me, but go primarily arms after that IMO..
  10. Dman
    Well I did say there were too many and that they could be easily replaced, not that I love most of them. Fedko is Obviously 4th outfielder material and could be gone whenever they choose. I don't see Gonzalez or Mendez as true outfielders as their defense isn't good enough. Kind of the same for Larnach and Wallner and they are getting older and kept around for the bat not defense. Martin was a bit Jekyl and Hyde this year, but still projects more as a 4th outfielder. That leaves me with Buxton, Kreidler, Roden and Rodriguez as the likely best combination of defense and offensive potential left. So yeah to your point they can easily make room and Jenkins has more potential than anyone on that list not named Buxton. Still they should also try and find value for any of those assets they deem less worthy if they can and not just throw them away. Several that have defensive limitations could be used for their bats. It takes a lot of time, money and effort to get to the level of talent to even be on a 40 man. But your point stands that given Jenkins is the next best talent to Buxton that won't be what stops them from adding him to the 40 man.
  11. Dman
    While I tend to agree with the article I still think he controls his own destiny. If he goes on a tear the next couple of months I could see them adding him. I don't think the lockout affects him too much even if on the 40 man. He'll still be able to hit and play baseball when they come back. He's gonna have to really prove he is ready first though as the 40 man has too many outfielders on it already. Granted pretty easy to move on from some of them. As noted he doesn't "need" to be added until the end of 2027. I'd say the odds are they don't add him, but if he forces their hand that could change IMO.
  12. Dman
    Who needs Jeffers when you have Caratini? Wow I hadn't realized what a great month he had. Hope he can keep it up. Nice to see Bell finding his groove. Was getting worried for a minute there. Larnach has been impressive at the plate. looking like a veteran bat. His home run power is still there, but I've been more impressed by the contact rate and good at bats. Too bad he is a defensive liability and needs platoon help. Still an awesome month for Larnach. Buxton always is in the mix.
  13. Dman
    Great analysis and I pretty much fully agree on most of it. I was looking at this the other day in relation to trying to figure out who might get bumped off the 40 man if space was needed. It's hard to believe just how bleak the bullpen situation is. It really is just Morris and Gomez that seem like legit options. with Rojas and maybe Raya as potential arms that could get to that level. The rest are all suspect to this point. And there isn't much behind them either. There are no arms in the minors that appear close to ready. I was a big advocate for keeping Klein on the 40 man but his home run problems are still very pronounced. Culpepper isn't even on the 40 man and as noted by Nick while he has some pretty decent stuff his control has been an issue this year. Hidalgo also not on the 40 man has the stuff to K guys but he is homer prone as well. The cupboard is bare and as noted by most of this board that were screaming for additions to the bullpen in the offseason they decided not to spend the money, At the time they had a lot of young arms on the 40 man that they needed to try out at the MLB level, but if they truly wanted to compete this year building their bullpen via castoffs and waiver wire seemed pretty short sighted IMO. I would not deplete this system further by trading for bullpen depth. There are just way too many holes to make this pen playoff worthy. They need four arms better than what they have right now. They are going to have to make the guys they have better or move to higher octane arms in Klein and Culpepper. Need to hope Raya can be "a guy" that gets it done. Rojas as mentioned does he fit into the rotation or pen? The Twins are just short on impact arms at the moment but I wouldn't burn future assets to fix it unless this team looks better than it is right now.
  14. Dman
    Consensus seems to be those three as a tier above everyone else. If anyone wants to watch some analysis BA makes the case for all three. They talk about a lot of things but in summary they feel the two college players have the higher defensive ceiling with Emerson as "possibly" being the better offensive player or at least the higher offensive ceiling. They really like the swing mechanics. It seems the most likely order will be Cholowsky, Lackey, Emerson, but we'll see. It's the MLB draft and anything can happen as we've seen many times.
  15. Dman
    Looks like Hill is on a pitch count of about 50 pitches? He hasn't gone very far the last few times out. You'd like to think he could to three innings at a fairly efficient 15 pitches per inning, but alas he couldn't even get through 2. On the bright side he continues to get his K's and keep his ERA down. it looks like it is going to take a lot more time than I thought it might with Hill. That AAA lineup has been lethal this year and it has needed to be with most of it's starting rotation in Majors right now.
  16. Dman
    Thanks Jamie! Flora is the wildcard as pitchers have taken well below slot at times in the draft. They could do an arm first draft kind of like they did the Chase Petty year. Still the top three hitters have incredibly high upside. It would be awfully hard to pass that up when it is so hard to find really good hitters. It's been kind of a funny\interesting year looking at the system needs. The Twins started out with a likely rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Bradley Ober, and SWR. AAA started out with likely Abel, Matthews, Prielipp, Morris and Festa with Rojas in the wings. It looked like this system had plenty of mid rotation arms in reserve. Turn the page to today and the only healthy arms at AAA are Rojas and maybe relief arm Klein. That's it. Everyone else is either injured or already with the team. And the cupboard is pretty bare right now. They aggressively moved Gallagher but he is struggling and with Soto, Hill and Bohorquez struggles at high A they appear to be on the slow track. The only other arm with promise right now would be Quick who hasn't been overly dominant at High A yet. Once every one gets healthy there will be a bit more depth, but what I viewed as a system strength to start the year has quickly turned to a weakness. Drafting more arms high and low should be a priority again this year. On the hitting side the AAA bats have been on fire since May. However, with Jenkins out most of the year as well as Rodriguez the only top 100 guy that looks ready to move forward is Culpepper. Fortunately the bats at the MLB level have been getting the job done, but the system isn't exactly flush with elite bats. So we need bats too. So I still think the Twins should go with one of the top three bats to start and look for arms after that. There should be a lot of hitting talent repeating A ball next year as well as talent ready to move up from the FCL so they shouldn't have to worry as much about bats to fill out the roster next year. After the bat I would ask for a heavy arm draft. We'll see what they do as they generally like to have balanced drafts, but I think they need to replenish arms in this system as things stand today.
  17. Dman
    Yeah that's why he fits better in the Bell role than left field. He can play Left in a pinch but shouldn't be out there everyday IMO. We'll see where this team is at the end of July, but if they want to improve this teams defense as they have stated, Larnach isn't going to be a part of that.
  18. Dman
    I've been excited about Fragosa for a while now. I get he hasn't been at A ball that long and he has some warts with the aggressive approach, but was wondering if they would move him up fairly soon. I've been surprised at how effective Hiciano has been since he skipped the DSL. The FCL is generally a hard place to start for the guys that just came over. Sure would be nice to find an extra arm as the system is a bit starved for them at the moment.
  19. Dman
    Lee has been a pretty consistent .750 OPS hitter month to month. Seems like he should be able to keep that up if he stays healthy. I love that he is hitting more home runs but if he is only going to walk at a 5% clip it would be nice to see a higher batting average or higher Slugging as his OBP percentage is low. There's room for improvement, but hitting the ball is an important skill if you are going to be a good hitter and he appears to have that. Now he needs to find better pitches to barrel or take his walk. We'll see how he does going forward.
  20. Dman
    I don't know. Has he shown he is ready? In April his His OPS was .760 and in June just over .800 which is OK but not elite. He has really only had one elite month in May with a whopping 1.100 OPS. He isn't all that athletic, though he looks to be in the best shape I have seen him in. Personally I'd want to see more before adding him since he is a bat first player. I'd guess that if he gets the bat back into the .900 OPS range in July he might get a shot if the Twins sell at the deadline. If not I don't see a reason for them to add him.
  21. Dman
    Yes I was one of those that said he would "never" be good with the bat and something to the effect that he wasn't worth the roster spot. So yeah looks like I am gonna be quite wrong about this one. I agree even a .750 OPS makes him very valuable. We'll see how things go it's only 90 at bats, but he has made me change my mind about him.
  22. Dman
    Dang, Kriedler is giving me lot's of crow dinners. Stats can't always take into account when a player is going to improve. I Know 90 at bats is still a SSS, but the rub is most would say it is harder to hit well when getting small amounts of playing time and he has an .890 OPS under those conditions. Today it was a down the middle fastball that he hit out which is easier than most pitches. Still his stat line looks pretty sustainable over those 90 at bats. He has a near 10% walk rate and only a 16% K rate so he is making contact and has a decent eye. He also has a .319 BABIP which might be a tick high, but is fairly normalized. He has a positive WAR on Offense and Defense. I think it's time to see if he can keep this up as a starter. I get he is already 28 and currently in his prime but he could have another 4 years left before declining all that much. If he can OPS anywhere near just an .800 OPS that is starter material. It's hard to believe his numbers this year compared to the rest of his pro career, but he is getting too consistent to be lucky here at some point. I'd say keep him in there and see if he drops off with the bat or not.
  23. Dman
    I would just add that look what better athletes and defense has done for the White Sox. They are a good team now. We need to match that with guys better than Larnach and Wallner in the outfield. As well as better infield defense. Saving runs is important just like creating runs. I don't know if our young players will work out or not, but we need to try as it is the best way for this team to move forward and compete with better teams.
  24. Dman
    I agree on Clemens. I get that he is older as people point out, but he is so good in so many places I think he is harder to replace than others realize. He also appears to be a great locker room guy\leader. For what he brings just keep him IMO. Gomez too much control left and would take a huge offer to move. I don't see another team taking that risk and with the pen in shambles they need arms for high leverage. I'd keep him.
  25. Dman
    Reitz has been pretty good. Happy to see him not walking that many guys and keeping that WHIP down. While the K rate is OK if he can work on that a little the Twins might have something..
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