Dman

Is his velocity coming down though? i think he just threw 101 or 102 the other day. He just has trouble controlling his stuff when he throws harder IMO. Heck he has trouble when just throwing 99. I think he will be more like Chapman and keep his velocity longer than most. He has big strong legs and a thick body and strong arm. His biggest problem will be just staying in shape IMO. The Twins have taken a lot of catchers and Jeffers is about the only one that worked out. Granted they haven't taken a catcher as high as they took Jeffers since Jeffers so there's that. I like the catcher they got in the Tigers deal, but the cost was significantly lower and he is a defense first catcher. Tait is an offensive first catcher with very rough defensive actions. So many of those guys never stick at catcher. Granted the one thing he does have that some of those other offensive catchers generally don't have is a plus arm. So that gives him a better shot than most. My concern is that if he doesn't stick at catcher the Twins lost a ton of value there because if he is first baseman or DH that doesn't carry the same value as catcher and I don't think he would rate in the top 100 if he wasn't a catcher. Read up on this guy and it seems almost every outlet says he might not make it as a catcher but he can hit. Not a ringing endorsement to stay at catcher IMO. Personally I don't think the Twins were concerned about Duran as a closer. If you look at the numbers he is elite right now. I think they had an opportunity to get something and of course as you noted they wanted to avoid paying him more money than they generally allocate to the pen. The Twins aren't really tankers. They will win more games than fans like me would like. I would like them to tank as next years draft class is supposed to be good and pretty deep. They won't get a supplemental 1st rounder so picking higher in the second round should help mitigate that. I think the Twins will be lucky if they can be the 9th worst team, but we will see.. If there pen arms have value and they can get things they need then I think it just makes sense to trade them as I don't think they will have this kind of leverage next year. So I get why they are doing it. Still they will need to rebuild the pen if they do trade more arms. If you follow the minors you will notice a lack of good to elite pitching from A ball to AA. Though AA does have a few arms. I think this years draft class will help some, but it would be nice if they traded for more arms as the system as whole needs more talent there. If Abel is a mid rotation arm then this trade will be worth it because it is hard to develop those. Twins can easily develop number 5's. 2's and 3's don't grow on tree's. Abel has known control issues and to mitigate that it looks like he might be catching too much of the plate now. It sounds like he has elite stuff. Now he just needs to hit his spots. If he can't be a mid rotation arm odds are Twins got screwed in this deal. Tait could hit and that would change things. Word is Twins scouts think he is going to make it and they have actually watched him unlike me who only gets second hand info. If he ends up a good hitting catcher that would make this a good deal as well as that is very valuable. He is so far away though that most of the guys will be gone or on their way out by the time he is coming up. After seeing Boston I am not happy with type of players this FO had chosen in the past, but they do seem to be adding guys that can run and hit with power more now. It would be nice if they could steal a few of those in trade as well. It's not all doom and gloom and I hope I feel better about the other deals they make tomorrow.

These days I don't and this trade makes me think this FO needs to go. If you watched the Boston series pretty much all their players can run, can hit, have decent power. Our team looks slow can't field, can't hit. With Phili why not trade for Crawford? I know there are some issues with the hit tool, but the kid can fly, play elite defense and has chance to be a star player that impacts games. Instead our FO focus's on a slow running catcher that might not even be able stay at catcher for the headliner. I can't fathom what these guys think anymore. It just feels like they want this team to be bad. Maybe this was the best deal they could get, but I would have done Ford with some throw in's with Seattle. That gives them a near term catcher that looks like he can stay at catcher has proven he can hit all the way to AAA and is insurance for when Jeffers leaves when he gets too expensive. throw in some lower levels arms from Seattle the Twins can develop and I think they come out better in the end. The Twins do a decent job developing arms. They could likely find deals for arms with their other trades. They should focus on things they don't have and take on less risk than a 19 year old that will likely fall out of all these top 100 lists once they realize he can't hit in AA. Maybe I am dead wrong and the FO will be right and they will have another mid rotation arm which would be valuable and the kid will stay at catcher and launch bombs and give me the finger when he rounds the bases. The risk in this trade seems extremely high given that Phili is getting a nearly sure thing. They gave up a difference maker. I wanted a difference maker back and I am having trouble seeing that in this deal. Edit: More news on Abel. If he is a mid rotation arm this is an OK deal in my book.

I am thinking: In 2016, the Chicago Cubs acquired Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees in a trade to bolster their bullpen for a World Series push. The Yankees received a package of players including top prospect Gleyber Torres, and versatile player Adam Warren. This trade is notable as it involved a star closer and a key prospect, and helped the Cubs win their first World Series in over a century I think he was the Cubs number 1 prospect and top ten in the top 100 at the time.

The Athletic grades it pretty even, but the Twins take on all the risk in this deal.

Trade Rumors seems to feel the deal is solid for the Twins. Still Tait is no sure thing to stay behind the plate and Abel needs development for his stuff to translate. Let's hope the Twins Dev teams are up to the task.

To me this shows just how badly they got screwed. At the deadline the seller should have the leverage and especially since he had 2 and half year left. The Twins couldn't even get throw in's in this deal? This whole deal makes them look weak IMO. If Abel really is good (mid rotation) a lot of us will have to eat our words, but he needs to work out because the odds of a high school\young catcher with good numbers at A ball working out is like 10% or something. It is super high risk. Again maybe Twins scouts see him translating well to higher levels, but I feel like we have been on that hope train before and these young guys at these lower levels never quite make it. When you have the prize of the deadline it seems odd for them to take on this level of risk to me. I just can't help, but question this trade. Saying all that I haven't watched Abel pitch nor Tait play. Hopefully they impress right away otherwise it feels like the Twins got worse today and not better. They don't need more 5th starter type arms or catchers who just aren't quite good enough.

I can't believe Seattle couldn't beat this. He would have really helped their pen and if the Twins could have worked a deal around Ford they would have a catcher close to ready. I am not a fan. They tried for painter and couldn't even pry away their third ranked prospect in Crawford who at least has star potential. How does Dombrowski do it? We need that guy on our side.

I don't know much about Tait. It looks like a promising bat and possibly could be decent behind the dish. I hope the Twins scouts got that one right because it seems like lot's of teenage catchers fall big time as they move up levels. The Twins will have a catcher in the top 100 for the first time since Joe Mauer I believe. If Abel pans out an arm for an arm sounds good, but Duran is an elite arm so I don't know. I hope Abel gets his control issues under control and it works out well for us. He's close so there's that. If these players work out as projected it's a steal for the Twins. Let's hope they work out. Have to say at the start I am disappointed in the return, but I haven't really watched these guys so maybe they are better than I think they are. I think Dombrowski got the best of them personally. Guy always wins deals. Nice get for them.

I think you could get something for Wallner for sure. He is the only who seems capable of OPSing .800. Larnach might get something as a platoon bat. The rest might get you a bag of balls or something. They all have little to no value that I can see. If you believe Clemens and his near .800 OPS are for real they could maybe get something for him, but likely not much. All the other guys are below replacement player level so no real value. Kiersey and Vasquez might have some defensive value. It is the deadline and strange things happen. We'll see.

If they are trading a lot of players they will get back plenty of relief arm prospects in those deals. They will also have the offseason to add arms and they could also move Prielipp, Raya, Ohl or others to the pen next year if they want to. It might not be a super strong pen next year depending on how many arms they trade, but I assume they will have higher upside position players and possibly more arms in these deals to reshape the team. We'll see how things look on Thursday night. I can't see them moving Varland as that would be a very steep price for another team to pay.

Yeah I think Abel, Crawford gets it done. Crawford has All Star upside if he ends up hitting in the air more Abel has maybe mid rotation upside but likely 5th starter and or at Least really good bullpen arm. That is a solid overpay. I could see that deal happening.

I understand the ask for Painter. They have some highly rated players, but to me they have plenty of warts too. I don't see Miller as a great fit with Culpepper and Houston on the way. Culpepper might have the better bat and better defensive skillset as well. I like Crawford but there are questions as to whether he will hit for Home run power. Granted he hits the ball harder than Martin, but would he somewhat face the same same fate? He also hits the ball on the ground at a very high rate. Those things might be fixable he is only 21 at AAA, but he is not without risk as he moves to MLB. Tait is an 18 year old catcher with a good hit tool and a ton of power. Not great defensively yet. So ton's of risk in that kind of profile even though he is a top 100 prospect. Still another super high risk prospect. Escobar looks like a real nice bat and solid player but he is yet another second baseman. The Twins have too many of those already, So yeah I can see why they asked for a more sure thing in Painter. Its one of the few things Philly can offer that might make a difference.

I guess I am curious why people suddenly now think Paddack was worth a 14 to 18 range prospect? There were thoughts the Twins wouldn't even be able to give him away. Lot's of articles with surprised writers that he went first let alone netted a decent prospect in return. It seems likely that the Tigers see something they like in Paddack and there was some desperation involved because they didn't like their other options for starters, otherwise why go after Paddack so early when they likely could have gotten someone better at the deadline for less? it just doesn't make sense to me that they would deal with a division rival early and not overpay in prospect capital and money. That's my take. I think the Twins just took the best deal and got them to pay for Dobnak as well. Detroit knew the price and was fine with that. Overpays happen at the deadline all the time. If it wasn't an overpay tell me why the Twins had to move him early?

There's so much we don't know that we could run a ton of scenarios to get the narrative where we want it. How do we know the Yankee's weren't low balling the Twins with a prospect outside their top 30? It's not like Paddack was even close to the best arm out there. Just a cheap one with some potential upside. Same with the Rays if there's a bargain to be had they are in. Maybe they didn't like reaching into their top 20 for Paddack, Maybe the Tigers were just desperate for a deal because they didn't have much for starting pitching as yet another starter went down and were willing to move the needle to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Even if meant taking on Dobnak's salary? Bottom line we just don't know what the other deals were and you can spin this any way you want too.

Yeah they would almost need Matthews unless they just play Lee there the next year or so. Hard to find a decent shortstop in FA without spending a fair bit of money. I think they only get him if they pay down future years in the contract though. If Correa kind of wants to go back would the Twins try and stop him? I am guessing they could get a deal done if Houston is willing to play ball. It would make the Twins a younger team again with more young players on the way. Not sure how I feel about it, but it sure seems like a possibility as Houston could use a veteran bat and a guy they know excels in the playoffs.

Yeah I don't know. It seems like a trap either way. The Twins could trade Correa to the Astros and pay down his salary this year to help them not go over. Maybe pay 10M of his salary next year and 5 the year after if Houston will send back a decent prospect in return. That one move would make room for all the arb raises and give the team money to spend again to round out the roster. Paying another team to take a good player and then essentially paying them to keep that good player is gonna be a really tough look if Correa gets hot in Houston. Still the fit for whatever reason just hasn't been the best in Minnesota. It's not like both sides aren't trying. but maybe home is where the heart is and maybe Correa can get his game and life back on track in Houston? I don't know what the best answer is, but it has been tough sledding with Correa the last three years.

That was a great first inning by Ohl. You can see the potential with the three K's. After that it was some pretty hard contact the rest of the way with balls hit hard and traveling deep. They seemed to easily square up his stuff. He needs more deception because they didn't fall for many of his out of zone pitches after the first inning. He had a lot of them at 2 strikes but could not finish them off. He has that beautiful change, but there is work to be done. If he can't hack it as a starter there is nice reliever potential there. The Red Sox look like a good team. A few pieces away from being a great team. Looks like there will likely be a power shift in the east if they can find enough pitching.

I don't think the video is matching up with the content.

I tend to agree. How many games has Jax coughed up (seven or so)? He also is too predictable IMO. Throwing it into the ground in front of the plate. Maybe it is old school, but power reliever's just seem to be valued more and despite the OP's excellent analysis I think he is valued more than Jax. Maybe I am wrong, but I thought Duran's velocity dip had more to do with just controlling his pitches better. I thought I saw him dial one up to 102 fairly recently. I do agree he gives up incredibly solid contact on his pitches at times but the fact he doesn't give up home runs means he isn't going to lose the game on one swing. Both relievers have had issues throwing strikes at times and that has hurt them. Their FIP and xFIP are close. All their stats match up pretty nice with Jax having an edge on swinging strikes. You can make a case for either one. I just like Duran better in the closer role so I would keep him.

I still think Stewart is the one they trade and maybe Jax as well. Stewart looked great last night. He looked dominant, but he is our oldest arm and it is just hard to say how long he holds up. He could be fine the next three years or might not be. I still think he could net a strong return probably not all that far off from Jax or Duran. I can't think of a time when the Twins have been positioned this well to demand more than they likely deserve in trade for his services. I'd pull the trigger there with an overpay. Jax is getting older too. I really like the stuff and think with better sequencing, high, low, inside, outside he can be even better. Still if they can get a large overpay I would do it. I would hang onto Duran. He should be a top arm in any market. I think they get about the same for him next year as this year. He is young. He puts on a good show when he comes in and he is just fun to watch. I would hold off and see how things shake out after these trades and they can decide if they want to trade him next year or not. I can't think of package I would be willing to trade for Ryan. It would need to be super star for super star. Can't see it happening.

Yeah they have some Rule V guys that can get early work if the Twins plan on adding them like Prielipp, MaCleod, Klein, and Culpepper. If Raya can put things together they could run him out there as well.

I had kind of lost site of Ohl, He has always needed to get his K rate up to get his chance and last year he still hadn't done that. I knew he was doing pretty well this year, but had no idea just how well. I have always really liked his aggressive approach to pitching. He has worked really hard to get his chance and I am happy to see he is getting one. It will be interesting to see if the new arsenal will work at the MLB level. I am excited to see what he can do. I hope he can be a future arm we can bank on. We will know more after tonight. Good luck Pierson Ohl!

He has a long way to go and his ceiling is limited, but I have warmed up to him as a prospect. I do like that he looks like a really strong defensive catcher. It is so key to staying a catcher through all the levels. Eye at the plate is good and that generally leads to fewer issues with the bat when moving up levels. As far as rankings go I do feel that teenage catchers get ranked too high, too early and many seem to just fall off completely. So I would agree with Seth that I would have him rated a little lower for now. We really won't know much until AA when the pitching gets tougher. Paddack's ERA and inconsistent starts left me wondering what the return might be. Since this player is still in the FCL you could still argue he is more of a lotto ticket than prospect. but personally I like the return. He brings depth to a system that needs more catching depth and his overall skillset looks strong at a young age. I feel like the Twins came out OK on this deal and most prospect evaluators seem to agree the Twins came out pretty well in this deal.

I tend to agree. It would take more than just Ford, but I think if he was the headliner in the deal Minnesota could work it out. He meets a lot of what I think the FO has requested for a deal to get done. He is a top 100 prospect rated 49 right now. He has been young at every level and hit well with good plate discipline at every level. The Twins haven't had a top 100 catcher in the system since Joe Mauer so that would be a nice get and he is a system need. You would be trading something of value and getting something of value back. I think Seattle is one of the few teams that might be able to pry Duran from the Twins. If they threw in Sloan I could see them adding Coulombe or Bader or Castro. Whoever they like best to get the deal over the line. That would meet Minnesota's 2 top 100 prospects request and net them their future catcher and a young arm for the future. Seattle gets two elite arms for the playoff run. I don't know if Seattle would do it, but I think that would interest the Twins. If they use Ford to get Suarez I'd say the deal is off and I think Seattle should focus on getting Suarez. Big bats in the playoffs are difference makers in tight games. I think there are other ways for them to deal with the pen, but man their pen would be pretty unstoppable with Duran in it. I t would be really difficult for other teams to bust through their top three arms ala the KC Royals. Also they would have Duran for the next two years and Suarez likely gone after this year.

Excellent article Matthew! I really enjoyed it! I feel like Sim doesn't get a lot of love. More the forgotten arm, but he is a pretty steady reliable force and I think he will get even better in time. I love the old school approach.