Dman

It is risky to be sure. He definitely had a down year last year. Lemehieu wasn't supposed to be any good outside of Coors either and the Yankee's signed him to a big contract after he proved otherwise and he is one of their best hitters. It hard to say what all is happening on home and away splits. I think right field at Target field should play to his pull side for power. He isn't the fastest but his defense has been above average which bodes well. There are several teams out there that want him and he is rumored to have had a 100M dollar contract offer although to your point it was not to play shortstop. He is far from my ideal pick for short but the Twins can't play in the 30M or more 7 to 8 year contracts for elite players so you drop a tier and look at Story on maybe a 4year deal at 25M per year with 30M option for a 5th year and hope you get three good years out of him. Think if the Twins could get him for something like that it would be no worse and likely better than the Donaldson deal. I don't think you have to worry too much though because the Twins are pretty allergic to deals over 20M per year for anything longer than a couple of years. I think they get slightly outbid by another team.

I don't like Lewis as the primary piece if they would be willing to build around Arraez or Larnach I could see that working. Still if I were the Twins I would focus on Montas as he has two years of control and is the better pitcher. Chapman could certainly help this team but we have options for third and not much at short or top of the rotation starters. Pitcher with more than one year of control would be even best since the Twins don't appear to extend pitchers because of cost and injury risk. Trading Lewis the one up the middle 5 tool player we have seems like a bad idea to me. We have plenty of depth behind Arraez and we could do without Larnach if needed. I would look more at trades for high end pitchers or shortstop rather than 3rd base right now. Just my opinion though.

I too felt Donaldson was no longer a fit and Story's OPS and Donaldson aren't that far off and Story is younger and plays a position of need. If they do manage to get Story spending on an up the middle position makes more sense than spending at 3rd where we have several prospects who can play there in the future and as noted Miranda could be ready this year,.

Yeah I don't love Andrus either but given what they got with Simmons they can probably work around him. That 15M next year is gonna hurt though and from what I see he actually has negative trade value right now which tells you just how bad he is. I agree it is a waiting game right now. Story can't sign until Correa does because teams that miss out on Correa could up the ante for Story. Once Correa and Freeman sign things should move pretty fast on the FA side I would think. Have to believe Oakland has a lot offers to choose from on Montas and I doubt the Twins win that one but it is fun to dream.

IMO signing Donaldson after the 2019 season was the Twins kind of going all in for 2020. They had the Bomba squad and 3rd base was a hole that needed filling at that time. Covid 2020 made the season a mess and Josh barley played. He was just fine in 2021 though his numbers were a bit diminished but he was solid at the plate. Moving ahead to 2022 and looking at the farm and even 40 man the Twins are pretty stacked with guys that project to play 2nd and third base (Arraez, Gordon, Miranda, Steer, Jullien, Severino among others. What they don't have is much for shortstop depth. If they can swap Donaldson's contract for Story's that would help more than keeping Donaldson. The strange thing for me that Nick touched on is that the Twins were in such a hurry to unload Donaldsons salary that they way overpaid to unload him. The Yankee's were talking about DFAing Sanchez he was so bad and his inclusion is a salary dump as much as Donaldson was for the Twins. Urshela wasn't needed if they had Donaldson so the Yankee's unload Salary and the Twins gain someone who can play multiple positions but is solid at third. Why the Twins had to give them Rortvedt in this exchange is beyond me because the Yankee's were already getting two significantly better players in the swap as it was and salary difference as it stand is only around 11M. I mean it seems unlikely that Rortevedt will ever hit all that well but the Twins certainly could have used him this year. The other thing is why make this deal if you don't already have a deal for Story in place? Given what I am seeing although Story's market it thin there are no rumors he is close to a deal with the Twins. If Story was the option they were looking for to fill short wouldn't you wait until you had agreement and then make the trade with Yankee's? I have seen other rumors of a possible Montas or Manea trade that involve taking on the Elvis Andrus contract so there are other ways to get there but still just hanging out there with nothing seems like a bad idea IMO. Unless of course you don't care that much about 2022 feeling like you can fall back on 2023 if needed? At any rate Nick is right the FO no longer see's Donaldson as a fit and was wiling to make the team worse at least short term with the hope and a prayer that the market or trades work out in their favor in the end. If not then apparently it is on to next year.

Yeah they have to be in on story or none of this makes sense.

Personally I like what Reds did in this deal In Green and now Petty they are adding high velocity arms with solid secondary's that could be ace level pitcher's in the future. I am a little surprised that they had to even throw in a no name relief pitcher to even this deal out but if I had to guess this is likely the best offer the Red's were going to get for Gray so if they needed a throw in they likely were happy to do so. Gray looks like he could be in decline and this is likely the best time to trade him especially if Cincinnati is unlikely to compete the next few years. If the Red's could've gotten a better deal they would have.

Yeah I thought about that too. I guess they must feel Henriquez is Petty's replacement and he is much closer to ready. Still I don't love losing Petty even if Gray is a solid pitcher, but too your point yes they essentially replaced what they lost and moved up the time line to boot which is not a horrible play. They also have quite the pitching pipeline to deal with right now so I guess they felt the trade was a risk worth taking to shore up this years rotation. If the team does not perform and Gray does they could still do a deadline deal as well so all is not lost. I just really liked Petty's potential.

Yeah I know it might be harsh but I agree with your analysis. Maybe Gray has another great year in him hard to say but it looks to me like he is regressing so I don't see that much difference from him and someone you could buy on the market. I get that Petty is a looong ways a way and he could end up like Kohl Stewart. Although given the analysis I have seen I doubt it. Given where the team is at, this move just doesn't make sense to me. It feels more like an unforced error than anything else. Why give up the potential of a hard throwing starter for an in decline starter for a team that even if it reaches the playoffs is likely one and done. Save these trades (assets) for when the team is player or two away and go for something that will make a bigger impact. For me this trade is a risk not worth taking.

And if he turns into the next Max Sherzer or even the next Ynoa and Gray craters the next two years and or the Twins still don't make the playoffs then the story ends up different. I think Gray is a fine pitcher I would just have preferred the Twins to buy a guy rather than trade a potential asset.

I guess I am in the minority as I don't see Gray as much of needle mover over Pineda or Cueto who could be had for money and no prospect loss. If they were going to make a big move why not go for Montas instead of Gray? I mean the Yankee's tried to unload Gray almost as soon as they got him a while back not seeing him as a playoff pitcher or really a pitcher who could survive the division. This isn't even a Lance Lynn move like the White Sox made IMO. So color me disappointed on this one. Sure, yeah they found a competent starter but I don't think they needed to pay that price to get something similar on the market.

Can't say I love this move. Why not just grab Pineda again his ERA was better and you don't have to give up a flame throwing asset? I mean the Yankee's unloaded Gray as fast as they could because they didn't see him as playoff pitcher or pitcher who could survive their division. This strikes me as a horrible move. Gray looks like pitcher in decline. I don't think the Twins FO can be trusted to make trades anymore. This just boggles my mind.

Personally I don't think any of them will make it but I say that every year and someone seems to end up making it. So if I had to pick out of the list you currently have it would be Ian Hamilton. His 13/9 K9 shows he has the stuff to miss bats but the 1.45 WHIP means he has trouble with his control. If he can get the walks down and looks good this spring I could the Twins adding him to the 40 man. The control will have to be there though.

I agree with you that they look like they will stay in the 100 to 110 range for payroll. There just isn't anything out there that would force them to spend beyond that, that I can see. I hadn't thought about them adjusting for Buxton making all his incentive money this year but if he is healthy he stands a good chance of making most of his incentives. Still I think some of this just plays into where this team is at. They have a ton question marks all over the roster from Sano to Kirilloff to Larnach to Kepler to most of the pitching staff. On top of all that they have 5 or 6 young pitchers on the 40 man that they need to figure out if they have what it takes or not because they have Varland, Canterino. Gipson-Long and maybe Mooney and Grace who might need to be added next year as well. This just doesn't feel like the year to go all in so if they want to try and get ahead of the Buxton money and show more of a profit after the Covid years this seems like the year to do it. It better not be a long term trend though because I\we have stuck with this team when they were just horrible to watch. Once things take shape they better spend to put this team over the top.

While his size does makes it seem like he ends up in the pen he does have the stuff to be a starter. I get the knocks on him that his slider and change might not be "good enough" just yet but when you look at the WHIP he must have some decent stuff and pretty good control because his WHIP is only 1.10 and he has a good K rate for a starter. Also he is young for AA at 21 so one would think he might need a bit more time to refine his stuff. Henriquez and SWR give the Twins some higher level, younger arms, with starter potential as other than Balazovich (23,YO) I think the rest of the guys are 24 or 25 already. So it is nice that he is younger and I think there is a good chance development can lift him a little higher yet. The Twins love tweaking sliders and several pitchers have developed solid changeup's in the system. I think there is a good chance they can improve Henriquez's pitches the only question in my mind is will the arm hold up as a starter as innings increase. Should be fun to watch the Twins affiliates rotations at all levels this year as they are dripping with talent top to bottom.

I thought so as well but was surprised to see him on the 40 man. I think 16 year olds get five years before needing to be added. His 5 years appear to be up given this article.

That is a nice summary. I guess my number one question is how many more young arms can they really afford to add to the 40 man? Henriquez is yet one more young unproven arm that is taking up roster space. My second question is who on the pitching side can they get that will really make a difference at this point? Pineda and Odo types are more filler than playoff pitchers. The Twins literally need one or two of their young pitchers to step up and be elite. Something we have rarely seen in the past. There still is time to make moves but pitching still looks to be the hope and a prayer plan right now to me.

I think Garver has a solid 800 OPS bat and while he may be limited to 1st base or DH in short order that swing will play for a long time yet. I guess this is what happens when you have nothing at short. They had to balance the roster even if it was at a high cost. If the Twins didn't see Garver as a catcher for much longer then they had a log jam forming at 1st base and DH. I don't like that it was Garver who they decided to move but the move does at least give us something at short and balance the roster a bit. This is great deal for the Rangers IMO. They get an elite power bat that can play 1st or catcher and can be a good DH as well. This might be the Rangers plan B for not being able to get Freeman or Olson as Garvers production isn't that far off from either player. Playing him at first should also help eliminate injuries. This is a good win now move for the Rangers. Sounds like Henriquez is an intriguing arm as well. Fangraphs says "If Henriquez's breaking ball quality and/or consistency improves, then he's a candidate to move into the top 100. If it doesn't, then he's still a likely impact member of a staff who I'd slot in a multi-inning relief role." So there is potential there as the Twins still need arms. If he does end up working out then getting a good fit at short for at least two years and a pitcher that they would control for 6 years there is a chance for this trade to be a win but my money is still on Garver's bat, certainly short term anyway.

Yeah gotta believe the Twins are set for the mid rotation market now. Pineda maybe Kikuchi or a trade for Odo. Gonna have to grow their front line starter it looks like.

I am interested to see what they end up doing. He said they talked about the trade market and I wonder what that would look like for them given they seem to prefer not to extend pitchers. Well this next week should be interesting and with a couple of 40 man spots opening from Maeda and Enlow and money available they should be able to make pretty much any big move they want to.

Yeah this makes sense. It is too late to do the Rule V IMO. No Rule V would likely be in the Twins best interest anyway as they have three players that seemed likely to get taken. Although Palacios might only end up a utility player he can at least play short competently and he has some power now so he is likely worth a look by any team trying to rebuild. Kody Funderburk was a starter with a good K9 11/9 and nice 2.55 ERA and 1.10 WHIP who wouldn't want to take a look at that arm even if he ended up in relief he would be a good steal. While this was Jordon Gores first year pitching it was at AA where he did close a fair bit as well and he too had a good K9 at nearly 12/9 a 2.39 ERA and .95 WHIP. Honestly those are pretty elite numbers for that level. I think they both would will be grabbed if there is a Rule V. If you don't think so then I present Calvin Faucher as evidence. The Twins had him throwing harder but he had a 7.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP at AA. He was included as a no name trade candidate in the Cruz deal and once in Tampa they threw him in AAA where he had a 1.77 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. They ended up adding him to their 40 man this past fall. If another team can get that out of Faucher I think they would be well served to do as well or better with Funderburk and Gore. The Twins have arms in the system and hopefully they can keep Funderburk and Gore as they just might be able to help the big club this year. AAA can still be a difficult level to master and MLB even tougher but to this point they both look up to the challenge. So for me kind of hoping there is no Rule V this year.

I know we have had this debate a few times before but the shot clock in basketball was initially supposed to be bad for the sport with players rushing shots etc but IMO the shot clock literally saved Basketballs pace of play with Zone defenses slowing games to a standstill it was getting brutal to watch. Pace of play generally adds to the excitement and keeps fans more involved IMO. Not that a pitch clock would have that much influence on a baseball game but it does help keep the pace play moving. From what I understand as pitchers get used to the clock in the minors it isn't a real issue for them anymore and most seem to like keeping the game moving so for guys that are used to it I don't see it as much of an issue anymore. Just as there is strategy by slowing down the pace of play there will be just as much strategy keeping things moving with limited time. I look forward to the pitch clock and given how few issues there have been in the minors don't see it being a big deal in the majors either.

I wouldn't be in a hurry to trade Arraez as there isn't anyone who can replace him just yet. The other issue is I don't see that many teams that would need his services at least at 2nd base and his OPS isn't a logical fit for 3rd base IMO. Some teams that could use him are still rebuilding and teams at the top already have players just as good or better than Arraez. If you squint maybe the Mariners or a couple of other teams but not many would consider him an upgrade, but for the most part I just don't see high demand for him. The main issue is his OPS is not spectacular. Yes he is a good OnBase guy but he has little power and is not a threat to steal bases. He has limited utility. If you are going to trade a player like that it seems like the deadline would extract the most value. Some team with an injured 2nd or 3rd baseman who see's his value might be willing to overpay if desperate enough. Still Arraez has quite a bit of value to the Twins until one of Steer, Jullien, Miranda, or Martin look like like they are ready for primetime. Until the Twins literally have someone ready I would hang onto him unless the offer was just too good to pass up.

If I had to guess then I would imagine that Jeter wants to go all in and try and move the team to the next level by bringing in difference making free agents which would increase payroll. Jeter has waited 5 years and he strikes me as someone who would want to be aggressive once a base is in place. The Marlins seem to have a decent rotation (around top 10) and they seem to lack offense (almost dead last). If they got aggressive buying or trading for offense then they could have a formidable team next year. I have to believe the org isn't doing enough fast enough in Jeter's view but that is just speculation on my part.

I would be fine with the Twins taking a risk on trading for Montas but only if the Twins could extend him. While you can never say never I think we need to keep in mind that the Twins have been averse to long term extensions for pitchers. So assuming they would be willing or even able to get an extension done it goes against all previous club history (for recent history see Jose Berrios). As others have already stated with all the unknowns in the rotation it feels like the prospect cost and timing are far from ideal to only have Montas for two years. I think the OP has this right. Sure the Twins could push all their chips onto the table this year but why do that now when the odds\timing seem so poor? It just seems far more prudent to build a young established rotation and then over pay for the guy who could put you over the top. The Twins are not currently in that position. A little patience could take this team a long way. We need some of those pitching prospect's to pan out and that is risky as well but given where we are, I still think that is the best play.