Dman

I was underwhelmed so thanks for posting that. Nice to see them going for some lefties. I hope they can develop him like a Winder type but most all of the big ten pitchers we have taken have been bad picks so not overly confident this one is any better especially with the low velocity. Kind of Reminds me of an Ober type I guess we will see. At least FanGraphs likes the pick.

And there goes Kath to the White Sox as well dang again.

Dang was hoping Ky Bush might fall to us. Man rankings mean nothing when it comes to baseball.

Yeah I was hoping he falls but I doubt it. I thought they were going to grab him with the Comp pick but they liked the High schooler better. We'll see what is left when they pick.

Well below is what Johnson had to say as reported in the Athletic and below that Law gives him a 50/50 chance to stay at short not exactly a ringing endorsement. He isn't slow he runs average but shortstops usually are above average runners just like center fielders. My view is pessimistic because you don't see many 50\Average running shortstops. His actions look good apparently which gives him a chance but, just looking at past profiles the odds are against him. "We think he’ll have power from both sides (of the plate),” Johnson said. “He’s extremely instinctive as a defender. He’s not the fastest shortstop in the world, but we think he has a chance to stay there for a long time. Great hands. Great feet. Great (internal) clock. Does all the things you want to see. He’s just super advanced. More advanced than a lot of college guys you go see.” Law agrees with much of that assessment, reporting that Miller has “excellent instincts and at least an even chance to stay at shortstop.”

It is really just in the scouting grades but when they give shortstops 50 run grades as high schoolers very few stay at short. They get bigger and slightly slower and usually end up at 2nd. Go to MLB.com and look at Spencer Steers bio. They have him as a 50 runner and at 2nd base not short. I would say the odds of Miller staying at short are very, very slim IMO.

Seems like a reach pick but they didn't want to take the chance he wouldn't be there in the second round. I wish he ran a little bit faster other than that I don't mind the pick. I doubt he stays at Short at the MLB level but we'll see. Bat seems promising and hopefully his eye is good. Nice to have a switch hitter that hits well from both sides and have to believe that is why they took him a little early.

Like most I am concerned about Petty's 100 MPH arm holding up. Green and Kopek both ended up having TJ surgery so no question this is a risky pick but if he does turn out he has a very high ceiling. Sounds like he has worked hard on his mechanics already so command and control is what he will be refining as he already has velocity under his belt. Happy to see them grab a high end pitcher with where they picked. Detroit, KC and Cleveland all took 1st round pitchers as well. I hope this gamble pays off and if I were the Twins I would grab more pitching on day 2.

I was was hoping for a fast moving College pitcher but, getting Petty at 26 who Compares to Green who was taken at the very top of the draft seems like a good get. I do have my concerns about arm issues with hard throwing High Schoolers but, I am glad they went with a high upside pitcher instead of a bat as KC, Clevelend and Detroit all went with high upside arms as well. It looks like the AL central is in an arms race this year. Hopefully Petty stays healthy. He has the fastball to make it so just needs to work on the secondary's and control. Maybe he will be a faster mover than I think he will be. As usual I didn't care for the perceived reach on the supplemental pick. After Jeffers and Steer I do trust this FO with bat evals for these reach picks but I wish they could find guys they like that can run better. Average runner as Shortstop screams 3rd or second base in the majors. The hit tool is the most important thing and he appears to have a good one I just wish he had better up the middle projection. He kind of seems Dozier like to me. He can play short but not likely at good enough level to not be a liability there as he grows. We'll see how things turn out but I am pleased that no Left field\1st Basemen were taken early. Still hoping for College arms in the second round.

Cleveland got the guy I was hoping would fall to Twins. Most of the high end pitching was picked over. Was not looking for a high school pitcher who may end up a reliever per some reports but this is better than a bat IMO.

Yankees got Sweeney the only hitter I really liked for the Twins at 26. Kind of hoping they go pitcher but likely a pipe dream on my part.

That was a great write up! Thanks for that. I totally agree with you on Funderburk. In the future I see him more as reliever but who knows maybe he can surprise all of us. I didn't think he would do as well as he has as a starter so we will see. Without some overpowering stuff it seems unlikely though. Also liked what you had to say about Severino and agree. He has been hitting really well after having a pretty slow start. I wonder if they move him up after the draft to make room for some other players but will have to wait and see. Yep Varland could have been moved up a month ago but they have had a lot pitchers injured at that level so probably needed him where he was. Again I think after the draft when they bring in more guys they will move him up. Just crazy how decimated the pitching staff has been this season. Very few guys that haven't been injured at this point. They are bringing in all kinds of guys I have never heard of. This draft can't come fast enough to get more guys moving.

I haven't done research on drafting position players versus pitcher's early either but it seems with a cursory glance that hitters have a better chance of making it and even if a pitcher does make it they often don't play as long as hitters, due to injury. I don't know if you read the link in the post above but Johnson was implying bats were in short supply this year so simple supply and demand would state go for the scarce resource first and the more plentiful later. Which in a vacuum makes sense. The Twins, however, currently have a MLB team with good hitters and some pretty good hitters in the MiLB pipeline. They have good pitching in the MiLB pipeline but little to none on the MLB team. They have approximately a 5 to 6 year window of fairly elite talent that they have assembled and are just missing good pitching to put them over the top. We have seen 1st round college level pitchers move pretty fast through various teams systems so wouldn't it make sense to grab some early elite pitching and then even grab pitching late like they have been? Buffering the quality arms in the system in case of injury or ineffectiveness with guys that could help in 2 to 3 years time while the window is still open. It just seems like if there is a year to break out of the simple supply and demand of the draft and go after a position of team need this is the year. I mean Oranges might be scarce but if I already have plenty of them why not just buy more apples if that is what I really need? I know that they want to balance their picks but they are deadline sellers and should be able to get hitting prospects easier than pitching prospects. They could trade for hitters and take more pitching in a draft that apparently has more pitching than hitting in it. I mean if every team followed the Twins philosophy there would be no pitchers taken in the first round of the draft. I don't think it is a philosophy that has to be followed but I can see where Johnson is coming from. Personally I just think it is short sighted given where this team is at.

Yeah they are going to stick to their current strategy and go with bats first it looks like. I would love to see college arms that can move quickly personally but they seem to feel good about their current strategy so unlikely to change IMO. I am hoping they split with a bat first and arm in the supplemental round but given the referenced article that seems unlikely now. If they do go hitter I hope they go for guys with good eye and low K rates. Those are players that have seemed to work out the best for us. When they go strictly for power they seem to flame out. I am sure whoever they take I will hate the pick but that is just me.

Nice to see Miranda having another good night. Doesn't look like AAA pitching is slowing him down. While I don't know much about his defense at third they do have this highlight on his MiLB page which makes me think he will be OK there. Good to see Javier have another walk off hit he had been slumping pretty badly so hopefully this gets him back on track. Barnes has been as consistent as I have ever seen him this year. Guessing that if the Twins can get rid of Happ Charlie gets the call. They need to know if he can make it or not and this is the best year to do it.

When they first got him I didn't think it was the greatest move. He was getting older but our DH spot the year before was so terrible I could see he would be an upgrade, but I never thought he would be better than advertised. The guy is just amazing at the plate and such a good presence on the team. A class act you name it. Honestly if teams stop throwing balls at him I think he might hit into his late 40's. He will be missed but he will get a chance at playoff baseball. I wish him the best and will always have fond memories of what he did for the Twins.

To me it is kind of Minnesota Meh. When the Twins had good players to trade it seems like they got decent returns. Most lottery tickets are not going to work out so no real surprises there. Trades are tricky things to evaluate though. One team is usually trading for a short term burst in talent while the other is willing to wait long term for young unproven talent to work out. The team trading for short term always leaves themselves open to losing big time in a trade. As they are likely only getting a proven player for a short period of time and the other team is getting prospects that if they make it can accumulate 6 years of WAR. I guess my point is the team trading for short term talent the year they really need it is willing to lose the future value of the trade because they need help now. They don't care if it looks like they got fleeced in the future because they were playing to win now. With that in mind you can evaluate how trades worked out for both teams but you have to keep in mind the team trading for MLB talent was always willing to lose the trade. They had to give up enough future value to make it worthwhile for the other team to trade. The Twins still have a fair bit of future value left on the table and Duran alone could tip the scales or he could be injured and never make it such is the nature of risk in baseball. Still he is rated the Twins 3rd best prospect so hard to fault the FO for making a bad trade even if he never makes it, he had front of the rotation potential but risk is risk. Sometimes things work out sometimes they don't. While I wouldn't say this FO has fleeced anyone I don't think they have been fleeced either.

So I have Rhodery Diaz on my watch list after the 2019 season he had. He was a DSL All-Star with very good OBP and OPS of 860. So he appeared to have a good eye at the plate and decent slugging potential. Did he suddenly lose all that potential or did he just give up and move onto something else? Just seems odd that a player that was an All-Star would get released. Man I hope Winder is OK. The neck area for pitchers is used more than you might think to throw the ball. Even a bruise could take a while to overcome. I guess this is just gonna be one of those years. Hopefully all the bad luck is gone for a while after this year.

I know he is a high school pitcher but if Painter fell to the Twins he looks like a good all around pitcher to me. Would love to have him if is there and would sign.

As the deadline draws near I am becoming less bullish on what the Twins can get in return for their rentals. Cruz is the only player worth a decent prospect or two. Maybe if Pineda can pitch well the next couple of times out he can increase his value but who wants a guy that gives up 12 hits in 5 innings. If a team is willing to roll the dice they won't be giving up much. Simmons is marginal as is Robles. The Twins just are not going to get much back for guys that are not performing all that well. Will they get a return they like for Berrios or Rodgers or maybe Kepler? Maybe but as Tom pointed out in another article teams might want to hold onto their young near major league talent until a CBA is negotiated. Hard to say if that will be the case or not but it could be a fairly quiet deadline with mostly just relievers moving. You never know what will happen some team might decide this is the year to take that leap and they go the massive overpay route and maybe that will be for a Twins player but it feels like the odds are lower than I thought they would be.

I agree with your analysis and the factual evidence is compelling as well. For me though the calculus can change given the player. Berrios has been a durable pitcher and he has pitched under a 4.00 ERA pretty much every season. He might not be an ace but you might be replacing him with an older injury prone pitcher that won't even give you back his level of production and you would likely have to pay top dollar to get a pitcher close to Berrios level and you might have to go three or four years. It seems less risky to just pay that money or a little more for the younger more durable player Berrios and tack on a few more years to that deal. I get that if you Extend him and as of now that is no certainty either that you lose out on any prospects and that has to be calculated in. If the Twins received a Top 100 player and another close to ready player with maybe a lottery ticket thrown in plus spending the 20M per year on an older starting pitching free agent they could come out ahead, but that is a dangerous plan for 2022 because after all of that you still likely need one more FA starter and there is no guarantee the prospects work out (i.e. Alex Meyer, Vance Worley). So there is risk both ways IMO. If there is no extending him then their hands might be tied. He would give them help in 2022 but the draft comp pick would take too long to help the current core of players so that strategy is even more risky IMO. I do think that if he is willing to do 5\100 to 5\120 extension the Twins should do it. He can bridge the gap to the half dozen high quality young arms the Twins currently have in the upper levels and if the Twins do find a pitching pipeline then they could always trade Berrios later into his contract as well. To your point there may just be too many pitching holes to plan on getting much of anything out of the 2022 season. In that case again your trade scenario makes more sense as long as they get pitching back. I guess we will know more in the next three weeks. Thanks for the fun thought exercise!

Very nice easy read, thanks for sharing that! I have been watching Isola. I got to watch him catch when they were in Beloit in 2019. He appeared very intense, very into the game. I saw he had been hitting well this year. He has the secret sauce of a great hitter with about the same number of walks as K's. Hitters like that tend to do well as they move up levels. Slugging is good and he has an 800 OPS which is not too bad. Would be nicer if it was 850 or above but if he can move his BABIP from 260 to 300 he can get there. He looks pretty solid at least at this level. Most all of the Twins catchers have been pretty good hitters this year so plenty of competition but with more BABIP luck his numbers could look pretty special. I like his story and hope to see him in the Twins top 30 and one day at the MLB level.

I don't disagree with you about trading especially if the return is good. I just don't think they are going to do it. Call me crazy but I still think the FO thinks their young high Minors pitching is going to come through for them next year and they are going to build a bridge to try and make that happen. If Maeda bounces back and you Keep Berrios you have a decent top of the rotation. If Ober stabilizes the back end then they have three pitchers going into next year. Maybe Winder works his way to MLB this year as well and becomes a possibility and they still have Duran, Balazovich, Sands and Canterino in the wings. Not to mention Dobnak, Jax and Smeltzer who could be 5th starter depth. They would just need two FA pitchers and they would be on their way to transitioning to a younger staff. Granted they still might not be good enough in 2022 but should be better. I think the FO believes in what they have built and trading Berrios is too risky for them but we will see. Also Berrios appears to be a pitcher not affected by sticky stuff so I hope they do find a way to extend him.

While I don't disagree with you when you have statements from the Mets in MLB Trade Rumors that the Twins asking price for Berrios is "Sky High" I am not sure that bodes well for moving him. The Mets have been willing to deal in the past most notably for Stroman. So while I agree Berrios is in demand and could be traded I get the feeling the Twins might want more than teams are willing to pay in this particular market at this particular time. Also the team that signs him if they give up a big haul has to be able to extend him as well. As Tom noted not many teams are going to be able to do that and if the Met's can't handle the ask there are even fewer teams that will be able to get a deal done. Personally I think the odds are lower than I thought for Berrios to get moved.

I agree with you Tom. I think most teams will go with rentals and try to keep costs down. Some of the higher revenue teams may not be impacted as much so might be able to still work a deal but it feels like the market might be suppressed this year more than most. We will see maybe I am reading things wrong as well but uncertainty generally leads people to make more cautious decisions. With things so unsettled giving up young controllable players seems like a bad play IMO. To Brocks point yes we have Cost controlled cheap players that could be traded but the Twins would want to keep them for those same reasons. The Twins will only trade Berrios if the return is right as they might need him next year to keep their jobs. Buxton's value is too low to trade him. They could trade Arraez but why when he has 4 years of control left? They could trade Polanco but again he is on a good contract and the return would have to be huge to be worth trading him. Kepler could be traded but he is the best defensive corner outfielder we have right now and I am not sure what value he has on the market with his low average and OPS. Might have to sell low there to make a deal if they even want to do that. Honestly other than moving Cruz and maybe Pineda if he starts pitching better I don't see that the Twins will have much other teams want. Robles maybe but I don't think the return will be great. Simmons bat is just horrible won't get much value there. I am starting to think this deadline might be more quiet for the Twins than I originally had hoped.