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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    Inferred from the Braves article: This is what the team claims, but I don't think we have enough information to assume that payroll is relative to revenue. Teams held by privately held organizations don't have to share their books. The value of the business is based on many factors, one of which is potential profitability. 600% value growth compared to 120% payroll growth means a perceived significant chunk of margin goes in the Pohlad's pockets.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    of that list? Berrios and maybe one more will/could be in the 2020 rotation for more than half the season. Highest likelihood is Mejia, but that whole list outside of Berrios should be 6-10 in the major league rotation for ‘20. Romero has promise but there’s talk of putting him in the pen. Several on that list will end up in the pen.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    yup they sure did fleece Ryan, and that trade scenario is a strategy employed by front offices. Trading away flawed prospects before word gets out. In the other thread about where to find more talent, it was pointed out that Ryan hardly ever traded. If you dont trade and can’t develop players, your only choice is free agency. Woof!
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    thanks for highlighting! It was TLDNR but because of your succinct comment I went back and read. Agreed, fantastic work by RB
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_797 Per Wikipedia a caterpillar 797 runs $5mil
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    I'm in the lock up Odorizzi camp, and try to lock up Gibson both for the 2-4 year range if the right deal can be struck. Today the opening day 2019 rotation appears to have beyond 2019 only Berrios. By spring of 2020 odds are low that the current batch of prospects will graduate from the minors 2 or more pitchers capable of going 4+ innings that are better than Odorizzi and Gibson. Odorizzi is a good baseline. Having Odorizzi as your 5th starter in 2020 means you've got 4 starters better than him. that's a better place to be than 2018 and every year prior going back to 2012. Trades and free agency can get you there, but 4 rotation spots all improvements over Odorizzi without him in the sample is expensive and would take resources away from other areas of the team that also need improvement such as the bullpen.
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Could be as Parker brought up here, hitting to CF works against him. A bit more muscle could help carry the ball further. Pulling it just a bit could turn those outs into doubles and homers too. And a Parker article about Keplers work on launch angle. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/28871-article-launch-angles-in-the-outfield/?do=findComment&comment=720055 It all points to how close he might be to just going monster ape-poop-crazy
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
    Kepler’s strike out rate was 15% and his hard hit rate 34.5% as is his fly ball rate 46% Babip at .236 with HR/FB at 9.9%. Seems to me like he’s jumping on the right pitches and crushing them, but getting underneath them. Sounds to me like Rowson has an opportunity to look like a rockstar if he can help make a slight correction to Keplers swing.
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    pie charts would have made the intent of the percentages more clear.
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    the other part of trades is how much WAR did they trade away in order to acquire the returned WAR? I bet the majority of the value traded away came out of the draft bucket.
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Top farm system gets you what exactly? Having high end players 26-40 on the 40 man roster is critical, but won’t win a World Series. “Blocking future stars” is just another way is saying that the prospects aren’t better than a decrepit washed up old has-beens. Polanco and Buxton are fantastic examples of the old regime’s mismanagement of the farm. You’ve got 6 years to graduate a player to the bigs. Buxton is an example of getting promoted too quickly and trading away the incumbent before the heir apparent is ready. Polanco on the other was left too long in the rookie leagues, before he made it to double A, they had to add him to the 40 man and desperation put him on the active roster to sit and rot. Both put in terrible positions due to inadequate free agent signings. Rather than spend the money for a replacement level player, Polanco languished on the bench. I get trading big leaguers for pitching prospects but rather than spend the money on a good CF or 4th outfielder they were committed to Buxton flailing away in the bigs. We saw how Buxtons service time got mismanaged with the shenanigan Falvey pulled in Sept.
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    it does put into perspective some of the annual spring training 25th man on the roster, swing starter debates, doesn’t it. It’s not just those but 26-40 including the 6th-10th starters that can make or break a season
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    Mike brings this one up regularly, but so far hasn't... honestly I'm a little disappointed.... How does one sustain anything when there are no payroll commitments past 2019 or 2020? Roster turnover of 30% when you lose 100 games is good. Roster turnover of 30% when you win 85 games... well...
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
    I have mixed feelings, but here goes: Buxton has played poorly, and not hit near well enough to earn a starting CF role. The FOs (plural) have mismanaged his service time terribly for 2+ seasons. That’s not Buxtons fault. September of 2018 he wasn’t hurt and needed to see big league pitching in order to develop. There was clear need for Buxton at the time. The time to manage his service was 2016/2017 and earlier in 2018. He shouldn’t have been rushed back from injury, but should have been brought up for September. If Falvine and TR were managing Buxtons service appropriately he wouldn’t have service considerations at that point.
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Diva? That is the last word I would use to describe Byron Buxton. There's loads of mixed signals coming from the media and Falvey regarding Buxton., I can't blame Buxton for being bitter or confused. If there are questions about his attitude, look to where he was - at Gillette Children's hospital in MN during the offseason. Falvey has said that he really values Buxton, but did he activate Buxton in September, or send him home? Actions speak louder than words.
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    how does one work on hitting big league curveballs at home in September?
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    agreed 100%, but on the flip side, why eff with his service time if you don’t think he can hack it? He’s had like 3 good months over 3 years. He’s been bad... so why screw around with his service time at all? Buxton didn’t deserve to be up anymore than Field did. He was bad. So I’m baffled, perplexed, puzzled, and dismayed. Why would Falvey pick this fight? Certainly Buxton won’t extend. Another season like the last and 2016, non-tender... The odds of seeing this through to the bitter end are low. More service time brings back more value in trade. All this other nonsense is just driving up, or down trade value
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    This must be similar to the process MLBTR used to identify the Twins as the most likely target.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    True, but this is a slippery slope. Twitter polls and Strib comments and TD threads are self selection bias. There are many reasons to speak to the press including speaking to other GMs and player reps, and fans.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    so Falvey “leaks” wild ideas to LEN3 to test how TDers react? Holy crap, that’s funny and no I’m not Falvey
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    "Hope" is not a strategy, but that seems to be the sales pitch.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    mlb sold bamtech to Disney every team got 30 two years ago plus 50 mil last year for the sale (total $2.6 bil) plus whatever their share of the streaming contract is that comes in the form of additional revenue sharing. The theory is, it’ll get packaged into the Disney streaming service. https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/08/09/disney-to-give-mlb-another-1-58-billion-for-bamtech-the-players-will-see-none-of-it/
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    in 18 the league signed a new streaming contract sharing additional revenue annually. There was the one time sum of 50 mil last year plus ongoing payments. It’s my assumption with new ad revenues they already are close to if not over 300. Ticket and merch sales in season are icing on top of the already profitable cake.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    what does the age of the coaching staff have to do with the age of free agent signees?
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    the teams are private, there’s no way to verify those estimates. I’m sure they are reasonable but understated revenue and overstated costs. Probably directionally accurate within the league in rank order. I don’t expect the Twins to go bat-poop crazy with the checkbook, but they can afford a 140-150 mil payroll and still be net-profitable.
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