Richie the Rally Goat

it’s not number of appearances. It’s rate. Appearances or pitches over time. Time is the constant and as RB pointed out, the key to maximizing quality is finding the sweet spot for individual pitchers of rate of pitches over time that they can throw the most highest quality pitches over the constant. No two people are the same. Some throw 100 every 5 days, some throw 60 every 3 days. Some throw 30 every other day, some throw 45 two out of 5 days, etc. That’s where your analysis comes in. Chart the metrics on where your leading indicators (velocity, spin rate, swinging strike rate, et al) drop off. Rather than defing your pitching capacity based on something arbitrary like “role” or not defining your capacity and rely on pitchers based on necessity, define your pitching capacity based on the pitchers performance.

I would think Pineda would be the 5th starter, and begin the season as swing man in order to limit his innings. This will be his first season back from TJ. I like your idea and agree. Twins will keep as many hitters as possible with the hopes to sneak them through waivers early in the season when they need more pitching.

New and improved! Without Sox Jersey Source http://www.ballparkmagic.com/Places573.html

I would have like this, but the individual is wearing a White Sox Jersey.

I second this suggestion. Just go and pay for parking. Bring some snacks, if you can’t get tix for the big leagues, watch the minors in the backfields. Minor league games are loads of fun.

Severino and Garry Jr sat nearby me.

I tried to get tix to Twins/Redsox at Jet Blue, and wasn’t willing to pay the 50 per scalper cost. Instead I walked in to the minors games. Absolutely the right choice. Minor League backfields was so much fun. It’s baseball overload as you can have 2 or 3 games going on, plus the side sessions. One of my favorite moments was when Albee Weis has a throw up the line. As a righty playing first base, he had a conundrum and got crossed up, the ball ended up going to the fence. At the end of the inning, he grabbed one of the coaches and asked him if he should turn his shoulder again next time to keep his foot on the bag. The coach gave him the tutorial there on in the dugout on keeping square to the field and move your feet. Better to save that ball from the fence and miss that out than give up runs. It was so great.

today was my last day at the fort and my 4th game, two big league, two minor league games. I hope next spring break you can come down. It’s awesome! And you get to watch outdoor baseball too

If Falvey signs a “reliever better than Gibson” and Johnson can develop a starting pitcher “better than Gibson”, the rotation might compete with Cleveland’s, which is a good place to be. Still need to develop relievers. Planned attrition is a good thing.

if you don’t find better talent, then how do you expect to improve? Agreed on “ONE of Gonsalves, Littell, Lewis, Graterol, Romero or Mejia” 100% but you to an extent need all 2/3 of them to have significant success for 4th thru 8th spots in the rotation if you don’t improve at the front of the rotation. That’s still a lot to ask for guys who several of which should IMO get converted to relievers.

yup, but then you still gotta find 3 more long appearance pitchers, one of which preferably better than Gibson.

I didn’t get a chance to ask in person, but Willie Joe Garry played like a man trying to take the next step up, he got robbed of a triple by Albee not being fleet of foot(or not hustling, it’s hard to tell, he’s huge). Does Garry have a shot at staying in with the Miracle?

I was at the game and got to “Ask Seth” in person today at the backfields. He maintains the ball never came in the press box, but from my vantage on the first base stands it clearly did.

it’s my terrible memory! You’re right it was Carew

I read in a different article that Lewis has been getting tips from Tony O to bunt more. I hope his sponge wrings some of the information out.

Gibby looked better in his second outing today. Great to watch baseball in Ft Myers today

they have him locked up until he’s 28. With the injuries and his reliance on speed, I’m not sure it makes sense to extend him. If he hits like Torii he can move to RF like him. If he can’t then you’ve got how many years committed to at best a 4th outfielder. Torii played CF until his age 36 season, but if you believe the fielding metrics (great point of debate) his UZR150 went from 3.4 to -9 from his age 29 to 30 seasons. So if Falvey offers Buxton a 5 year extension for 50 mil, would that mend the fence? I’m not sure. I’m not sure either side would do that. I think Buxton gets traded too, prolly by the All Star break to bring back pitching.

if ERA is your stat of choice measure the quality of a pitcher, you’ll hate Keuchel as a MN Twin. Ground ball pitcher plus Sano and Polanco’s fielding equals bloated ERA and early exits with bases loaded. If FIP is your stat of choice to determine pitcher quality Keuchel has been trending worse and worse for the last 3 years and could be cooked. Either way.... I would be leery of signing Keuchel with his contract demands, and Keuchel will not sign a 1 year make-good with the Twins. Not with that infield

it’s about to get deeper

Signing Keuchel would cost theTwins their third highest pick in the rule 4 draft as a revenue sharing receiving club. Source is AZ Phil of the Cub Reporter https://www.thecubreporter.com/compensation-loss-article-xx-b-qualified-player Quote: NOTE: Prior to the post-2017 off-season, a player had seven days to decide whether to accept a QO. If a Qualified Player subsequently signs a Major League contract with another (different) MLB club on or before the day prior to the MLB Rule 4 Draft (MLB First-Year Player Draft), the player's former club (the club that lost the Qualified Player) normally will receive a compensatory draft pick in the MLB Rule 4 Draft between the 2nd & 3rd rounds (after Competitive Balance Round "B"). EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would receive a compensatory draft pick immediately after the conclusion of the 1st round (prior to Competitive Balance Round "A") - IF - the Qualified Player signs a contract worth at least $50M (the club would receive a compensatory draft pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds and after Competitive Balance Round "B" if the Qualified Player signs a contract worth less than $50M), and an MLB club that is a Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would receive a draft pick between the 4th & 5th rounds. NOTE: If more than one club receives the same type of compensatory pick, the draft order for the comp picks is the same as it is for all other rounds in that draft (clubs select in inverse order of league standings from the previous season, and in the case of two clubs finishing with the same record the previous season, league standings from two seasons back will be used to break the tie, and if the clubs are still tied, league standings from three seasons back, four seasons back, etc, will be used to break the tie). If a Qualified Player signs a Major League contract with another (different) club on the day of or anytime after the MLB Rule 4 Draft, or if a Qualified Player signs a minor league contract with another (different) club and either remains in the minor leagues or is later added to that club's MLB 40-man roster, the player's new club does NOT forfeit a Rule 4 Draft pick, and the player's former club does NOT receive Rule 4 Draft pick compensation. However, MLB clubs are not permitted to sign a Qualified Player to a minor league contract just to avoid losing a draft pick. An MLB club that signs a Qualified Player (not including its own Qualified Players) to a Major League contract prior to the Rule 4 Draft deadline forfeits its 2nd highest selection in the next MLB Rule 4 Draft and $500,000 is subtracted from its assigned International Signing Bonus Pool (ISBP) in the next full International Signing Period (ISP) for each Qualified Player signed. EXCEPTIONS: An MLB club that receives revenue sharing funds would surrender its 3rd highest selection in the draft but nothing is subtracted from the club's ISBP in the next full ISP, and an MLB club that is a CBT payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would forfeit its 2nd & 5th selection in the draft and have $1,000,000 subtracted from its ISBP in the next ISP for each Qualified Player signed. NOTE: The Competitive Balance Tax threshold will be $195M in 2017, $197M in 2018, $206M in 2019, $208M in 2020, and $210M in 2021. The next highest Rule 4 Draft pick (or draft picks) will be forfeited if a club signs more than one Qualified Player (one draft pick forfeited for each Qualified Player signed). NOTE: A CBT payor (club's payroll from the previous season exceeded the CBT threshold) would forfeit its 3rd & 6th highest selections if the club signs a second Qualified Player, its 4th & 7th selections if the club signs a third Qualified Player, and its 8th & 9th highest selections, 10th & 11th highest selections, etc, for additional Qualified Players signed. End Quote

I'm not satisfied with either the rotation or the bullpen and signing a free agent starter could help on both fronts. I'm not sure Keuchel is that guy .That infield is made for a strikeout fly-out pitcher.

the last 8 years have sucked badly, but this year will be different! Just like last year was supposed to be different! But truthfully, this mess is nothing like the mid nineties until early aughts. It was dark days as a Twins fan when your owner is openly campaigning for retraction.

Could also be coincidental to other players performing better in those periods. Correlation does not necessarily mean causation

thanks for providing insight Heezy, always appreciate your POV

bingo! if Miguel Sano bunts against the shift, the shift worked