Chembry

As of today, the Dodgers are carrying an estimated $429M payroll in 2026...

MLBTR has a player database with agents. According to MLBTR, Ryan is represented by CAA Sports, not Boras.

What this is saying is they checked in on Dominguez. At that point, his price was higher than what they were willing to pay and probably will check again later, if he remains unsigned. If he goes unsigned into late January/early February, Dominguez's asking price will more than likely come down. The Twins like to play the game of wait out the market, especially for RP. Typically a $8M RP in November/December will come down to $5-6M in late January/early February. The Twins see that as a good value. It's a risky game though because the RPs that are left at that point all have some questions. This year, the RP market has moved relatively quickly. Waiting paid off last year and got good value on Danny Coulombe, who signed in early February.

Yes, Nico is a free agent after 2026

I have floated this idea around before on here and it didn't gain much traction, mostly because there are many trade targets one could pursue. Matt Shaw would fit in well as a headliner if the Twins were to trade Ryan to the Cubs. In fact, the Cubs have several potential headliners as trade candidates that could be of interest Wiggins, Ballesteros, Rojas, and Shaw all fit as headliners. I really like Jonathon Long as well, but as part of the package, not a headliner. Long is also blocked by Busch, but he may be a platoon partner. Shaw has the upside we should be looking for in a trade. He seems to have figured out something in the second half of 2025 and would fill a hole in the lineup. Defensively, he shows different metrics between fielding bible and baseball savant so it would be similar to Lewis. Shaw has played 2B so that would allow Keaschall to move to a better position for him (1B or OF). He could also steal a few bases as well. I terms of what would start the conversation, beyond Ryan, I don't know if the Twins have anything that entice the Cubs to move Shaw (or any of the other headliners). Happ is in his last year of the contract and I am not sure the Cubs like Alcantra that much, so maybe Emmanuel Rodriguez starts the conversation? That being said, Hoerner is in his last year, so in all likelihood the Cubs hold on to Shaw and use him in a utility role for 2026. But, I also know Shaw has ruffled some feathers within the Cubs organization for being "uncoachable". I think the Cubs hold on to Shaw (or any of the other headliners I mentioned) unless they get a top of the rotation type of starter, https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6960882/2026/01/11/alex-bregman-cubs-red-sox-bo-bichette/

Below is a picture of Royce and Buxton from August 2025. Royce either struck out or popped out in a big spot and showed frustration. Buxton had his arm around Royce and were talking the entire time in between innings. I don't think you need more evidence showing Buxton is more than just a lead by example guy. At the same time, you can have more than one "leader" in the clubhouse. Hopefully, Bell will add an additional voice of support, an additional sounding board, or whatever is needed for the younger hitters to take that next step.

Yes, the Twins were 19-35 post deadline, a 57 win pace. However, the bullpen blew 19 leads or ties in the 6th inning or later after the deadline. 17 recorded as losses as the Twins came back to win 2 of those 19 blown leads. I kept a running tally. The bullpen is the major reason they were on such a horrible pace, not the only reason though. Some of those games are going to happen, but if those 17 blown leads/recorded losses were cut in half, now we are much closer to .500 team. For some reason the Twins decided to run out retread relievers (like Hatch, Kriske, Ramirez, etc...) instead of giving some of the younger guys MLB experience out of the pen. Giving those younger guys experience facing MLB hitters could have given them a jump start to this year. I say the above paragraph with a caveat as the Twins still haven't addressed that need yet. I do believe they will end up signing 2 relievers, but traditionally they won't do that until late January/early February. Hopefully, they also give Prielipp a real shot to make the team in a reliever role, as Falvey noted at the GM meetings. He will be on a innings limit anyway. I do also see them converting one of the 4-5 starters competing for the #5 spot to the bullpen.

Noah Davis signed a minor league deal with the Pirates. Literally one of the worst pitchers in the history of MLB. Highest ERA by any MLB pitcher with at least 60 IP since 1890. How is he still getting a chance? https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/pirates-sign-noah-davis-to-minor-league-deal.html

Dan Hayes reported the Ryan and the Twins were pretty close, but couldn’t finalize the deal.

I believe they can continue to negotiate up until the date of the hearing. The hearing is only held if both sides can’t come to an agreement on a one year or multi year deal prior to the date of the hearing.

I found a prep scouting report when I was digging some information. In that report, Keaschall was reported at throwing 83mph. His average last year was 74.7 mph with a max of 78.3 mph. It's a reasonable assumption that he will get back to at least 83 mph and probably higher than that given that his body has developed more. However, at 83mph. that would put him in the 40-45th percentile in MLB and on the lower end of LFs, on par with Brandon Nimmo, Riley Greene, Max Kepler, Andrew Benintendi range for LF.

Let me help you with a ~1pm update from MLBTR:

There is no way the Phillies trade Aidan Miller for 1 year of Jeffers, unless they have an agreement to extend Jeffers. However, Jeffers is a Boras client and Boras typically discourages extensions and wants his clients to hit free agency to maximize their value.

Like @ashbury said, seems to be quotes from Zoll. Falvey was on record at the GM meetings stating Prielipp and Raya by name as bullpen candidates.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-sign-orlando-arcia-to-minor-league-deal.html

I am struggling to see how Wagaman is a “terrible” defender…I will be the first to admit that I didn’t see him play very many games and really not a huge fan of the move, but his defensive metrics aren’t exactly terrible. Baseball savant has him at -1 OAA on the 1B leaderboard. That’s puts him at 21st of 40 qualified 1B, ahead of Vlad Jr, Colby Mayo, Paul Goldschmidt, Nick Kurtz, Vinnie Pasquatino, and several others. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2025&endYear=2025&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=hide Fielding Bible also has him at a -1 defensive runs saved. I input a minimum of 800 innings played, but that leaderboard has him at 11th of 21. That doesn’t scream terrible. He’s not Matt Olson or Carlos Santana good, but seems serviceable. Fangraphs- I used a minimum of 800 innings. FRV has him 15th of 21. OAA has him 11th of 21. Def has him 7th of 21. This is a low wattage move that will either be AAA depth or platoon at 1B. His splits against LHP were pretty good last year. The more frustrating part of this move is why Julien or Gasper weren’t released instead of Fitzgerald. Maybe the Twins had a sense that Arcia would sign the minor league contract.

I also like Casas as a hitter. Is it worth a lottery ticket prospect for a high upside 1B? I don't know, but I do think it's worth taking a hard look. The injury history is weird. His rib cartilage injury was documented in the Netflix series. Casas swings hard and tore cartilage during a swing. His knee injury didn't happen while running. He stepped on 1B with his right leg and his left leg caught Ty Frances' leg while crossing the bag. That tripped him up and his left knee hit the ground really hard rupturing his patellar tendon. I would call those freak injuries, but injuries nonetheless.

Casas is a young 1B who has consistently posted above average OPS+ numbers. He is still only 25 (for a few more weeks), but a career 118 OPS+. He won't blow anyone away with BA, but will consistently post a BA that is league average, while having well above average OBP and SLG numbers. Yes, he is slow and has similar defensive numbers as Josh Bell. But he could immediately contribute to the lineup and be a presence for several years and will be cheap this year. Projected arbitration salary is $1.7M. You can't get that sort of production on the open market for that cheap. It is definitely a buy low situation for Casas. Yes, he is a LHH 1B, but career splits are virtually identical, albeit a much smaller sample size for LHP: vs RHP: 757 PA, .241/.345/.452/.796 vs LHP: 195 PA, .242/.359/.455/.814 I am not saying the Twins should go out and trade for Casas, although I wouldn't be upset about it. The Twins tried to get Casas last offseason (2024-2025), but the Red Sox wanted Ryan in return. The question is, is it worth a lottery ticket prospect for a high upside, with a freak injury history? https://www.si.com/mlb/red-sox/onsi/boston-red-sox-news/red-sox-love-twins-all-star-asked-for-him-in-triston-casas-talks-report-jackson3 Side note- I don't know if any of you here have watched "Clubhouse: A year with the Red Sox" on Netflix. If you haven't, I highly recommend. It's a fantastic look into the clubhouse, ups and downs of the year, and just what players deal with on and off the field. Jarren Duran and Triston Casas are highlighted a lot in that show.

The intent behind the Kyle Farmer comment was two-fold. One was that the Twins tendered him a contract while trying to find a trade partner. Ultimately the Twins weren't able to trade Farmer which could be from a myriad of different reasons. The other reason is exactly what you stated. On top of the Larnach's offensive value essentially being replaceable, his defensive value is a net negative. Given the status of the roster and the OF prospect depth in AAA, his salary would be better spent on upgrading the roster elsewhere.

At this point, I would argue it doesn't really matter what the return for Larnach would be. His projected $4.7M salary and roster spot would be best spent upgrading elsewhere. However, I fear we will be in the same situation we were with Kyle Farmer.

Cross Armstrong off the list...Guardians are signing him for 1yr/$5.5M. Fits your assessment that RP contracts are coming in above expected. Listening to Gleeman today, he made a statement that I could see happening. If Prielipp breaks camp with the team, he could be one of the teams best relievers by August.

I didn't say that late signings lead to bad contracts or poor performance. I didn't even insinuate that. I just stated facts. I am not sure why you brought up that those signings met or exceeded expectations. That had nothing to do with what I posted. My point was, the Twins were looking at "mid-tier" 1B. There are several of those guys available in November/December (lets say 6-8 of them). As the offseason moves along and those guys start signing elsewhere. The trickle down effect is now we have fewer FA available in February to potentially sign (lets say 1-3). We would only get to pick from the limited number available and not from the larger pool of free agents that were available in November/December. In this case, instead of waiting out the market, they showed some conviction and were proactive targeting the guy they wanted. We can question why they targeted Bell, but what I like is that they acted. Has nothing to do with the quality of the signing or if Bell will perform.

That doesn't negate the fact they signed within a few weeks of spring training.

I agree...would much rather trade Larnach. I want Wallner as the primary DH. But I don't see a scenario where the Twins carry both Larnach and Wallner in to 2026. Like I said, the Twins need to make a decision. I would rather Larnach be traded.

LOL! I don't know what you get for Larnach...a lottery ticket, a minor league P... but I would be ok with that. We all still question why the Twins tendered him a contract in the first place. Twins have some decisions to make. To me in terms of OF depth, Larnach and Wallner are the odd men out defensively. Cut bait and move on.