Chembry

I travel quite a bit for work and have been in Boston quite a bit recently. Fans in Boston absolutely hate Cora as their manager. I have been told he is the "worst manager in baseball" more times than I can count recently. The reason I bring this up is fans tend to go to the extreme and only see what their manager does. A very narrow viewpoint. This same holds true for every city I travel to. Most MLB fans aren't terribly happy with their manager or front office for that matter. They don't do enough to help their team win.

Agreed. There are a few recent players that skipped AAA or had very limited time in AAA that come to mind: Zach Neto: in 2022 went from A+ to AA playing only 37 games total between those levels. In 2023 played 11 games between AA and AAA before getting promoted to MLB. One might say he struggled a bit at the MLB level in 2023 hitting .225 with a .685 OPS, but now paying dividends. He is hitting .286 this year with 16 HR and .778 OPS. Nick Kurtz: Played only 32 games in minors total. He was crushing AAA pitching though. Bobby Witt Jr: played 63 games total at AAA Julio Rodriguez: Skipped AAA altogether CJ Abrams: played 38 games total at AAA

What you are questioning is a direct quote from the article. Yes, I do believe relievers are more volatile, especially ERA. And yes, that is largely due to sample size (innings pitched). But also with the situation they find themselves in. I can argue, when a starter gives up 4 runs early in the game, they have time to compensate. However, when a reliever comes into the game, typically it's towards the back end of the game and don't have the length of rope a starter does, simply due to the situation. So, when a reliever gives up 4 runs, it significantly affects their ERA. So, yes I understand that is volatile. But what about underlying metrics? Let's take a look at some top relievers from 2021 (I just picked that year because that was in the article) and look at deeper metrics to see how volatile they really are. I will throw in a few Twins relievers as well for fun. ERA 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Josh Hader 1.23 5.22 1.28 3.8 2.13 Emmanuel Clase 1.29 1.36 3.22 0.61 3.23 Ryan Pressley 2.25 2.98 3.58 3.49 4.35 Jordan Romano 2.14 2.11 2.9 6.59 6.64 Devin Williams 2.50 1.93 1.53 1.25 5.44 Tyler Rogers 2.22 3.57 3.04 2.82 1.87 Luke Jackson 1.98 2.97 5.09 4.54 Johan Duran 1.86 2.45 3.64 1.93 Griffin Jax 6.37 3.36 3.86 2.03 4.47 Jorge Alcala 3.92 0 6.23 3.24 6.64 BABIP 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Josh Hader 0.237 0.333 0.264 0.23 0.206 Emmanuel Clase 0.262 0.222 0.295 0.195 0.324 Ryan Pressley 0.296 0.26 0.272 0.333 0.31 Jordan Romano 0.252 0.256 0.292 0.3 0.304 Devin Williams 0.298 0.266 0.198 0.25 0.284 Tyler Rogers 0.278 0.293 0.268 0.274 0.263 Luke Jackson 0.253 0.284 0.319 0.267 Johan Duran 0.291 0.294 0.321 0.287 Griffin Jax 0.248 0.269 0.298 0.269 0.383 Jorge Alcala 0.245 0.333 0.209 0.219 0.351 ERA+ 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Josh Hader 213 77 331 106 193 Emmanuel Clase 333 278 132 674 129 Ryan Pressley 191 129 119 116 89 Jordan Romano 209 183 149 63 67 Devin Williams 166 209 282 331 75 Tyler Rogers 186 111 138 137 210 Luke Jackson 220 142 79 84 Johan Duran 210 179 115 224 Griffin Jax 67 116 114 207 96 Jorge Alcala 109 71 130 64 The top half of the tables are the best relivers in 2021 in terms of ERA. The ERA table shows that year to year their ERA is volatile, but we already knew that. Looking into deeper metrics, BABIP there appears to be some volatility year to year and loose correlation to ERA. I really like ERA+ as a metric. Just in case you aren't familiar, ERA+ is adjusts a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) to account for factors like ballpark and league environment, making it easier to compare pitchers across different eras and stadiums. A league-average ERA+ is 100, with higher numbers indicating better performance (a pitcher allowing fewer runs than average) and lower numbers indicating worse performance. Looking at the table, there is significant volatility year to in most relievers ERA+. I am not showing it here, but there is also volatility in HR/9, even with the best most consistent relievers in the game. With all that being said, you are correct that reliever math is different and that is mostly due to sample size due the situation they are in when entering the game. The ultimate question you posed was can relievers maintain some of the deeper metrics (BABIP, HR rate). The underlying metrics show there is some volatility year to year. Some bigger than others. Nobody knows if Louis can maintain the metrics he is putting up this year. Time will tell. Ultimately, the Twins thought trading a reliever (with 5 years of control) for what they think is an everyday OF in Roden (6 years of control) and a potential 2/3/4 spot LH starting pitcher (in AAA with high upside), was worth more than Varland and his 5 years of control, whether we like it or not.

1. Jax asked for the trade and the Twins obliged. End of story. I don't think the Twins had any intention of trading Jax until he requested the trade. Were they listening to offers, yes of course they were. I really don't think they went into the day saying we are trading Jax. That's why the deal was closed right at the deadline. 2. There is a story on MLB.com today about the Varland trade. The Twins weren't intending to trade Varland. According to Cory Provus, the Blue Jays have been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. When they came calling and offered Rojas/Roden for Varland/France, the Twins thought that was too good to pass up. Here is a few statements from the article: https://www.mlb.com/news/why-the-twins-traded-louis-varland-to-the-blue-jays "First, know this: The Twins weren’t looking to move Varland. I don’t think anyone in the front office thought that the hometown kid would be one of the players moved. But as you hear all the time, all it takes is one phone call, and they got the call that made them -- to use a term I heard a lot this week -- “motivated.” It starts with this: The Twins believe Alan Roden, who came over from the Blue Jays, will be something very close to an everyday Major League outfielder, and as you’ve seen, they’re already playing him that way. They like his athleticism -- he’s the best defensive corner outfielder currently on the roster -- and they like his approach at the plate. But it’s the other player in the deal who they view as the real prize. The Twins rate lefty Kendry Rojas very, very highly. They were as fond of him as any pitcher in the Blue Jays’ system. Just because analysts don’t have him as a Top-100 prospect, doesn’t mean the Twins view him as lesser. But there’s another aspect, and I found this very interesting. One thing that a lot of people have noted is that Varland still has five years of team control remaining. But I was told by someone in the industry that sometimes teams view that differently for relievers than other positions. Relief pitchers are, without question, the most volatile players in baseball. If you took a look at the best relievers in 2021 and the best relievers in ‘25, there would be almost no overlap. So the math is just a little different. Yes, you have Varland for five years, but it’s not the same as having a hitter or starter for five years. The value is just different. None of that may change your view. You may still be angry, sad or frustrated, and I’m not trying to change your mind. But I do hope you have a better understanding of the thought process." My point is, I don't think the two trades you mention have any bearing or impact on trading Lopez/Ryan/Ober. Now I believe one of them will be traded and I don't think that necessarily means they have punted. From what I read, the Twins wanted Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu + prospects for Joe Ryan. That doesn't scream punting to me. That tells me the Twins think they can compete with a few additional pieces and build their bullpen internally from the fringe starters (Festa/SWR/Raya).

I have to laugh at this. After Aaron Civale was moved to the bullpen in Milwaukee, he requested a trade. They traded him to the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn has been on a tear since arriving in Milwaukee. Be careful what you wish for, Vaugh is now thriving in a better situation in Milwaukee.

What is encouraging about Bradley is he had a sub 4 ERA heading into June this year. Looking at his starts after June, he had 5 starts where he gave up >4 runs. He gave an interview in St Paul where he said he had quite a few good starts this year, but in those rough outings he had this year he had a "harder time closing the door". Good lessons learned. I don't know if you consider Jacob Misiorowski up and coming. He made his MLB debut in June for the Brewers. He holds >100 mph as a starter. I have seen him throw 100 into the 7th inning. Graterol has had a whole host of injuries since joining the Dodgers. Pretty sure he has only pitched about 7-8 innings since the start of 2024. Inside the Twins organization, I am not aware of anyone that is throwing 100+ on the regular. We do have several that will sit in the mid to upper 90's: Taj Bradley (newly acquired at AAA): sits 95-97 comfortably and touches 99 Mick Abel (newly acquired at AAA): sits 95-97 comfortably and touches 99 Marco Raya (AAA): sits ~95. Have seen him hit 98 a few times this year Kendry Rojas (newly acquired at AAA): from scouting reports hits 97 Connor Prelipp (AA): Twins taking him slow after TJ surgery, but hits 97 Charlie Soto (A+): Turns 20 at the end of August and sits at 95-97 Riley Quick: (Drafted 2025): This guy is interesting. Dude is huge. 6'6" at 255 lbs. Chose baseball over football. Missed his junior year at University of Alabama after TJ surgery. Senior year his sinker was sitting at 96-97 touching 99. He just turned 21 Note- all these guys are starting pitchers where they sacrifice some velocity in favor of stamina. If any of these guys make the transition to the bullpen (i.e. the Varland/Jax/Duran/Perkins route) most of these guys could probably hit 100 on a fairly regular basis.

Came back as one of the players in the Varland trade. A strong hitter in the minors. Hit .310 in 2023 at AA and .314 at AAA in 2024. Made the Blue Jays roster out of spring training hitting .407 with 220wRC+. Struggled in ~40 games with the Blue Jays and was optioned back to AAA. Has since hit .331 in AAA before coming over to the Twins. Above average speed. Low K rate and high walk rate in the minors. We will if he can get comfortable at the MLB level. Today was a big stride.

I was hoping Jax or Duran was going Seattle and Ford being the return. Plus would have been easy to root for Seattle in the postseason. I am a big J-Rod fan and they have several ex-Twins on their roster.

I preface this by saying I don't want to trade Ryan or Lopez, but if you do there are a few other C prospects that may be worthwhile spending some time trying to work out a deal. The Cubs have Moises Ballesteros and Seattle has Harry Ford. Harry Ford may be a bit easier to pry from Seattle who has Cal Raleigh.

I am also puzzled by that line of thinking. I don't think there is any incentive to trade Lopez. He is a veteran presence that can really mentor young up and coming pitchers like Abel, Bradley, Raya, Morris, Prelipp, etc... A clubhouse presence like that is invaluable. If we go under the premise that one of Lopez/Ryan/Ober will be traded in the offseason, my guess is it will be Ryan. He has the highest upside and controllable through 2027. The Red Sox wanted Ryan really bad. From what I read, the Twins wanted Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu, but the Red Sox weren't willing to part with them right now. The Red Sox have a logjam of OF currently with Durran, Abreu, Anthony, and Rafaela. They also have Jhostynxon Garcia at AAA who is also MLB ready, but don't have a spot for him. They may revisit those conversations in the offseason and try to get Durran who is under team control through 2028. Or the Twins may pivot to try trading Ryan for a true 1B. They tried to get Christian Walker from the Astros for Correa. That tells me they are trying to compete in 2026 with a younger, more athletic core. I don't think the Twins trade Lopez/Ryan/Ober unless Abel/Bradley show they can step into that role. Even then, I think it's a long shot. If they do, I believe they only move 1 of those 3. Those words may come back to bite me. SWR along with a few others may be a good fit for the bullpen. I have stated, along with others, that a few of our SP should be converted to bullpen roles. Raya seems like he could be a good fit, maybe Festa, Morris, etc...

Bradley had a sub 4 ERA through May of this year. He had about 4 not so great outings in June/July. We also have Marco Raya and Andrew Morris at AAA that could be included on the list, but may want to see what they have as starters before we move them to the bullpen. The track record of converting fringe starters to high leverage bullpen arms is well known in the Twins organization as well as others. Raya may be a good candidate for a bullpen arm. He doesn't have great overall numbers at AAA, but had several good starts in a row. Time will tell, but I hope we convert a couple of these guys to bullpen arms. Could shore up the bullpen faster while taking advantage of our SP depth.

Most would agree where you are coming from on Outman. We don't need another LH outfielder, but he is very good defensively and a backup option for Buxton. Yes, we probably could have gotten May back in return, but he is purely a rental and an unrestricted FA at the end of the year. Bobby Miller had a decent 2023, but an ERA of over 8 in 2024 (13 games) and over 12 this year (limited sample size at 2 games). Not sure I would want either of those in place of Outman, unless we could extend Dustin May, which I am not sure we would with all the SP we have. Personally, I would have liked to see if we could get River Ryan, but not sure that's possible since he is out the remainder of the year with TJ surgery. He is their #9 prospect and started 4 games in 2024 with a 1-0 record posting a 1.33 ERA before injury. He was sitting at 96-98 with his fastball topping out over 100 with a repertoire of plus secondary pitches. I agree that Ryan may be on the block this winter, especially if Abel and Bradley come up and show promise. I think most of us would agree that we would rather keep him and extend if we can. However, it has since come out that the potential deal at the deadline centered around Duran or Abreu. Those talks may heat up in the offseason. If we can get Duran and Casas for Ryan, my thinking is we do it and run. Duran is the type of player you want, so if we can get him, we should do everything in our power to do it.

Curious if anyone saw this play from Houston:

Since the deadline, it has come out that: 1. Jax requested the trade 2. Twins asked for Christian Walker in return for Correa, but Houston said no. A few thoughts. I am actually ok trading Jax. I am in the minority, but I do think Taj Bradley has a bigger upside if he can become more consistent with his mechanics. I do think the Twins take some of this starting pitcher depth (Raya, Zebby, Festa, Bradley, Morris) and move a few of them into high leverage reliever/closer roles. There are several examples of this transition (Duran, Jax, Varland, Perkins, Mason Miller, etc...). Personally I really like the thought of moving Zebby into the closer role. He has the fire you want as a closer, great secondary pitches, and could really air it out. Whether it happens or not is a different story, If the Astros would have agreed to Christian Walker, my guess is that both Varland and Jax would still be here. Nevertheless, here we are. I don't think our everyday lineup is any worse. In fact, when Buxton and Keaschall come back, I think our lineup will be better than before the deadline. Obviously the question is still the bullpen. In my opinion, we should save our best bull pen arm to close out games, right now that is Sands. Maybe the bullpen transition of Raya should start now? He doesn't have great overall numbers as a starter in AAA, but has several good starts in a row and does have very good stuff.

According to the Saints roster, Outman hasn't reported yet. My guess is that's why he wasn't called up.

Agree, was taking a shot because he has MLB experience. Edit: I also thought he was still on the 40-man, but he isn't so that is definitely a no go.

I will take a stab: Position players: Outman, Roden, Keaschall, Martin, Julien, and Bride Pitchers: Ober...Beyond that, no clue...

Just saw that the Astros wanted the Twins to cover $50 million of his remaining salary plus throw in an outfielder

This is probably dead with Houston's acquisition of Urias, at least for now. I don't think anyone would be surprised if something happens with Houston in the offseason now knowing Correa would waive his NTC to go back to Houston. That is of course pending new ownership/front office that is still willing to make that move and their desire to sign free agents.

Even if Tanner Scott netted 3 of the Padres top 5 prospect, one of those prospects was #44 overall, and he was purely a rental. Both Jax and Duran have 2 years of team control beyond this year, so that is a big bargaining chip on top of their status as relievers. I am not arguing with you, I am trying to understand why you don't think we get that. I do understand, it's a big price and I do understand that relievers can be volatile, but historical transactions (i.e, Scott transaction) show it may not be out of the realm of possibility.

Did you mean Quero? Quero would be ok, but not my first choice. I don't think he the same type of hitter Rushing is, but is a better defensive catcher. The other guy they could target would be Ballesteros in the Cubs organization, but that would probably require at least Jax or Duran (one of the two) plus at least Bader or Castro. There is no way the Brewers would trade Jackson Churio.

I was reading some comments from Red Sox fans on a different proposal involving Ryan. This was a Joe Ryan for Jarren Duran trade that involved some other prospects. Some fans vigorously disagreed with the proposal saying Joe Ryan is an average #3 starter at best while Duran is one of the best OF in the game. They continued to state that Joe Ryan is inflating his value this year and will regress back to normal next year. A few came to point out that Ryan has been pitching this way for a few years and this is not an aberration. A few others pointed out that Duran's value is also inflated after his year last year. I agree with your statements on what the Twins should get in return should they trade Ryan/Jax/Duran.

This is a best case scenario. Rushing fills a significant need. He can play C/1B, but his playing time is limited in LA behind Smith and Freeman. Between AA/AAA last year he hit .271/ 26 HR/ .896 OPS. I don't like giving the Dodgers any help, but that is who the Twins should target. We may be even able to swindle Jax for Rushing straight up, but if we have to add someone else, the Twins need to consider that.

Personally I like that trade for Jax. However, that is probably a no deal from the Red Sox perspective. Jarren Duran has much higher value as an everyday starter and under team control through 2028. MLB trade rumors had a podcast where one of their own suggested a Duran for Duran trade. It was a unanimous sentiment that the Twins would need to offer more than Jhoan Duran for Jarren Duran. Adding Tolle in there is a bonus, but maybe they would overpay? If the Red Sox agree to your trade, we need to jump on that right away

There are quite a few on other forums that are very loud and almost demand Buxton to be traded. The point most are making is that his trade value has never been higher and he can't keep up this level of performance. I have seen several in the past month still saying Buxton should be traded. A Buxton type of talent doesn't come around that often and he has historically outplayed his contract value. This is a direct quote from a Twins daily article in 2024: "Last season, Buxton struggled through his knee injury, attempting to provide the Twins with value from the DH spot. FanGraphs pegged him as being worth $5 million. In 2024, he has already been worth $14.1 million, and the season is only a little over half over. Minnesota has paid him $51 million to this point in his career, and Buxton has provided the Twins with nearly $163 million in total value. Buxton is living up to his contract, even if his performance declines in the second half. There are limits to what a team can get with $15 million per season on the market these days, and the Twins can get plenty of excess value when Buxton is playing at his current level." Let's all sit back and enjoy what we are seeing this year.