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Mr. Brooks

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Everything posted by Mr. Brooks

  1. Mr. Brooks
    I'd have to imagine that there can be pretty wide margins within a given quartile, at second base. I don't think he'll get within, say 10 points of OPS. But, on second thought, I don't think I'll bet against Dozier, he can certainly go on some pretty good extended runs.
  2. Mr. Brooks
    Molitor was let go for a lot of reasons. And I notice that we haven't heard much from those that ripped the firing, now that Baldelli has us in first place by a mile.
  3. Mr. Brooks
    The amount of variance involved is certainly up for debate, no doubt. I happen to think it's less than others do, which is why I pointed out that all 6 of the last WS appearing teams were arguably the best regular season teams in their league. Which, BTW, I'm still waiting for you to let me in on the joke of why that is ironic. It's possible that's just a coincidence, but I don't think it is. I think the best teams more often than not are the ones that end up making it to the WS.
  4. Mr. Brooks
    What numbers, and how close is similar? Because I'll take that bet. If for no other reason than because he just has so much ground to make up. And Dozier is one of my all time favorite Twins, so I'm not trying to disparage him.
  5. Mr. Brooks
    And then let's all pick them back up off the ground and go find that dude that bunted to break up a no hitter.
  6. Mr. Brooks
    In not a linguistic expert, but doesn't crapshoot refer to the act of throwing dice? Wouldn't that be 100% random? When I hear that term, I think pure randomness, but perhaps I'm interpreting that term incorrectly. And I don't think one person would ever say there is no variance in the playoffs, so even if it's being misused, I guess I don't understand who you are correcting if your argument is just that there is some variance in the playoffs?
  7. Mr. Brooks
    Stewart has 23 walks and 27 strikeouts in 49 career mlb innings. That is not close to encouraging. Smeltzer has all of two starts. Two starts isn't enough to "show he can hold his own", no matter how those two starts went.
  8. Mr. Brooks
    Yes, and no. He's under contract for one more year. We need a needle mover for the playoffs this year, which is why I wasn't interested in Kuechel. But, FO's can't only think about this year. Only 2/5th of our rotation is under control for next year. Stroman could be attractive to our FO, as both insurance against injury this year, but possibly more importantly, as a cheap rotation piece for next year.
  9. Mr. Brooks
    It's because, as much as some posters think that budgets shouldn't matter, since there is no salary cap, for most teams it does. Starting pitching is expensive. Even mediocre starting pitching is expensive. Look at what we paid for guys like Nolasco and Pelfrey. With his low salary, Stroman doesn't need to be very good in order to have a ton of excess value. That might actually make him more attractive as an offseason trade for someone though. He might not move the needle in a playoff rotation, but gives a lot of flexibility as 1/5th of a regular season rotation at that price.
  10. Mr. Brooks
    Nothing in that article disputes my argument. I've never suggested there is no variance in the playoffs. Just that variance alone can't come close to explaining all of those consecutive Twins losses. And I appreciate you now saying there were other factors, not sure why you didn't just say that from the start... because that's all that I was saying.
  11. Mr. Brooks
    I must be dense today because I have zero idea what you're hinting at here.
  12. Mr. Brooks
    I apologize for misunderstanding your argument, but nobody thinks there isn't variance and small sample size fluctuations in the playoffs, so I don't understand why you took up this argument if that wasn't your stance.
  13. Mr. Brooks
    Baldelli probably read the TD article about him.
  14. Mr. Brooks
    You can't think it's random, and also want them to add talent for the playoffs. Those two views are at odds.
  15. Mr. Brooks
    They were a pattern. They shared similar players against similar opponents and were managed by the same manager. And probability is on my side. I just showed you the odds of 5 or 10 straight coinflips. Here are the last 6 World Series participants: Red Sox/Dodgers Astros/Dodgers Indians/Cubs All six had either the best, or second best records in their league. I don't believe the facts point to as much randomness as you think.
  16. Mr. Brooks
    Those are one time examples though. The Twins aren't getting swept year after year after year just because of SSS randomness. If you started flipping a coin, yes you'd need a large sample to get EXACTLY 50/50. But you wouldn't need a very large sample at all to make it extremely unlikely to get all heads. Just 5 in a row is 31:1. Just 10 in a row is 1021:1! How many playoff games in a row did the Twins lose? Was some of it luck? Of course, but the majority of it was other factors. The main part being (IMO) that our "piranha" lineups couldn't hit playoff pitching. You can't string together 6 singles in an inning against great pitching. I expect this lineup will fare much better.
  17. Mr. Brooks
    Not necessarily. They might think he can be effective at 88 or 89. Being in the NL will help, I'll be interested to see how he does, I'm no stranger to being wrong.
  18. Mr. Brooks
    Oops, missed that!
  19. Mr. Brooks
    That's fair, if you like him that much. I think he's cooked, and would be a clear 5th option here. Can he even touch 90 anymore?
  20. Mr. Brooks
    I don't understand what you are getting at here. Small sample size fluctuations are not the same as randomness. If we get swept in Detroit, it might mean nothing. If we get swept every single time we play Detroit, over and over and over again, then something is going on. Grab a coin and start flipping. See how hard it is to get only heads to come up, over and over and over again. It won't happen. Technically it could happen, but you probably won't live long enough to see it. For the Twins to get swept out of the first round, year after year after year, something was going on. If it was pure randomness, they would have won approximately half of the first round series, then roughly half of the second round series, etc.
  21. Mr. Brooks
    You only need 4 starters in the playoffs, so I'm not sure upgrading the 5th starter spot should be a priority for us, with the division virtually locked up.
  22. Mr. Brooks
    If they were a crapshoot, then it would have been close to mathematically impossible for the Twins to lose in the first round over and over again.
  23. Mr. Brooks
    Unless I'm misinterpreting your post, you'd offer:Larnach and Alcala and Jeffers/Rortvedt? That seems like too much for a relief pitcher, to me. Edit: Missed that you were including Stroman as well. In that case, the offer is probably too light.
  24. Mr. Brooks
    Even if he can be squeezed in with the manner you suggest, how are they affording improvements in free agency each year? Because I'm sure the same people complaining about the cheap Pohlad's for not signing Kimbrel would be totally cool if they took the next two offseasons off. My mind is completely open to being changed, I'd appreciate if you get the time to do a similar projection that keeps the core together (Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Sano, Berrios, Rogers) AND manages to find a way to add talent in the next two free agency periods. I just don't think the pieces fit as easily as you think.
  25. Mr. Brooks
    My personal opinion is that you don't appreciate just how good Berrios and Buxton are, if you think those salary estimates are somehow out of line.
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