Cody Christie

Many fans know the names of the top prospects in any organization. However, a team must develop lesser-known prospects into regulars at the big-league level. Here’s one Twins prospect who might have some surprising long-term value. Image courtesy of William Parmeter (photo of Danny De Andrade) Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee, and Emmanuel Rodriguez are household names for many Twins fans and are well-known in national prospect circles. This trio of prospects all rank on top-100 lists, with each player providing a different skill set and potential long-term value to the team. For any organization, it is critical for the top prospects to develop into stars, but the rest of the roster needs players who can consistently produce value. One Twins prospect didn’t make any of the traditional top-100 lists this winter, but he has the potential to move up lists in the coming years. FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski runs ZiPS projections that combine data and similar player types to project future value. He runs his projections for current MLB players and teams but also creates a top-100 prospect list, which includes many familiar names for Twins fans. Rodríguez (23rd) is the highest-ranking Twins prospect, after being ranked 39th entering last year. Lee also jumped from 42nd in 2023 to 34th in 2024. The only other Twins prospect on the list comes in at 68th overall, after not being ranked in 2023. Danny De Andrade was among the top-ranked prospects during the 2021 international signing period. The Twins signed the Venezuelan shortstop for $2.2 million and sent him to the Dominican Summer League for his professional debut. In 50 games, he hit .264/.340/.348, with 13 doubles and a 27-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It wasn’t a spectacular debut, but he wasn’t completely overmatched and showed some positive defensive signs. In 2022, the Twins brought him Stateside, and he played in 48 games in the Florida Complex League. He struggled out of the gate, with a .514 OPS in his first 17 games. However, he improved from there and hit .266/.380/.440 with 10 extra-base hits and nearly as many walks (16) as strikeouts (20). De Andrade faced older pitchers in all but five of his plate appearances, as he was nearly two years younger than the average age of the competition at his level. Last season, De Andrade got his first taste of playing in a full-season league and started to show signs of the prospect the Twins hoped he would develop into when they signed him. In 105 games, he hit .244/.354/.396, with 21 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. Over 98 percent of his plate appearances came against older pitchers; he was one of the youngest players in the Florida State League. Some viewed it as a breakout season, and that’s why he ranked as Twins Daily’s 14th overall prospect entering 2024. So, why does De Andrade rank so highly? Szymborski calls De Andrade a “sleeper” because he “showed some moderate power in a full season in A-ball.” He also said, “The computer is also mildly optimistic about his glove.” Even as a 19-year-old, he showed solid bat-to-ball skills and posted a 12.2% walk rate at Low-A. He was also efficient on the bases, going 20-for-24 in stolen base attempts. De Andrade made 89 starts at shortstop, showing many of the skills needed to stick at the position (hands, arm, instincts). As he climbs the organizational ladder, it will be critical for him to avoid expanding the zone too often, which happens with players who make a lot of contact. He added more pop in 2023, but some swing adjustments last season and adding more muscle to his frame can help him compile better power totals. The Twins will likely send De Andrade to High-A Cedar Rapids for most of the 2024 campaign. There is an outside chance the team could be aggressive with him and promote him to Double-A in the season’s second half. He’s certainly a prospect to put on your watch list for the upcoming season. Do you believe De Andrade is part of the team’s long-term plan? How high will he rank on the team’s prospect list entering next season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Twins fans’ morale should be near an all-time high entering the 2024 campaign. Instead, the club spread what can be perceived as true lies this winter that will impact the organization beyond the current season. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers earlier this week, which is typically a time for fans to get excited about the upcoming season. Teams try to build support throughout the winter by hosting events like Twins Fest and Winter Caravan, where leaders from the team can answer questions from fans and the media. The Twins have tried to spin different storylines this winter and direct the narrative surrounding the team. Unfortunately, those quotes looked like the truth at the time and have morphed into lies, whether intentional or not. True Lie 1: There will be no blackouts in 2024 Current impact: The Twins are back on Bally Sports North for the 2024 season, which means fans will be limited in how they can consume the team’s games. Cory Provus, the team’s new television announcer, and others in the organization told fans that blackouts were going away. However, those statements were made before Amazon made a deal with Diamond Sports, BSN’s parent company, to save them from bankruptcy. The Twins decided to return to BSN for one more season because of an estimated $30-40 million being paid to the team. Fans hoping for easier access to television broadcasts, especially streaming, are left searching for other options for one more year. Future impact: The Twins are among a group of teams who will be television free agents next winter. MLB has a few options with these clubs if they package them together as one group of 12-15 clubs. They can offer television and streaming rights to a larger company like Amazon or Apple to broadcast through their platforms. Another option is for MLB to take over the broadcasts for these teams, which is something teams like the Colorado Rockies are doing this year. Overall, there should be more access to Twins games in 2025, but there are no guarantees in a quickly changing television landscape. True Lie 2: The Twins must cut payroll. Current impact: Minnesota’s front office was very forthcoming at the start of the offseason that the team’s payroll would be dropping. Fans were told it was necessary because the team expected to lose significant revenue due to the lack of a television contract. Last year, the Twins earned $54 million in television revenue, dropping the payroll from $159 million to around $124 million. Minnesota received an influx of revenue with their one-year renewal with Diamond Sports, but there are no signs the team is about to embark on a spending spree. It seems likely for the team to add one more right-handed outfield bat, which should keep the payroll under $130 million for 2024. Future impact: If asked about the payroll, the Twins would likely point to the young players on the roster and say there would be a natural decline in payroll. Many of those players have yet to hit arbitration, which means they are making close to the minimum salary. Starting next year, Pablo Lopez sees his contract rise from $8.25 million to $21.75 million. There will also be a slough of players eligible for arbitration for the first time, including Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Jhoan Duran. The Twins roster will get expensive in a hurry, and those issues will only be further magnified if ownership continues to limit spending. True Lie 3: The front office is attempting to improve the team. Current impact: Every contending team enters the offseason hoping to make improvements to their roster. This proposition was difficult for the Twins because of the organization’s self-imposed payroll limits. The team also lost Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, two starters who recently finished runner-up for the Cy Young. Derek Falvey was clear at the Winter Meetings that the Twins would attempt to trade some of their veteran players, with Jorge Polanco being the lone casualty at this point. Minnesota turned him into a fifth starter, a late-inning reliever, and two prospects. Strictly on value, the Twins did well in this trade, but it’s easy to argue that the current roster is worse than last year. Future impact: The front office will always make moves where the Twins acquire more value. The Polanco trade is just one example of this type of swap. On the eve of the 2022 season, the Twins traded Taylor Rogers, the team’s closer, and Brent Rooker to the Padres for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan. It was a move that made sense from a value perspective, but the timing of the trade seemed suboptimal for clubhouse morale. Unless the payroll situation drastically changes, the front office must continue making value trades, even if it hurts the current roster. Expensive veterans must be shed, especially when a large chunk of the team’s payroll is tied to Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, and Pablo Lopez. Dropping payroll by $30 million will make any team worse unless the team’s young core takes massive strides forward in 2024. On the surface, the Twins weren't trying to lie to fans, but that is the perception with the way the situations above have transpired in recent months. Some fans were already wary about the team’s historical spending record, and those worries have been multiplied this winter. Minnesota is still the odds-on favorite to win the AL Central, but it’s tough to be optimistic about how the offseason played out. Which true lie is the most disheartening? How does each area impact the team in the long term? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Baseball writers have struggled to elect starting pitchers to the Hall of Fame in recent election cycles because changing usage patterns require us to alter how starters are judged. Johan Santana was one of the best pitchers of his generation, and the Twins can find ways to help his Hall of Fame case. On a late summer day under the Metrodome’s Teflon covering, fans watched a master at work. Johan Santana dominated the Texas Rangers over eight shutout innings. He set a Twins team record with 17 strikeouts and allowed only two hits. For the over 36,000 fans in attendance, it was Mozart’s greatest symphony or Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel. It was the music of a man on the way to a Hall of Fame career. Baseball is a game that continually evolves, and the starting pitcher position has undergone the most glaring changes in the modern game. Long gone are the pitchers who throw 250 innings in a season, or accumulate 300 wins for their career. No pitchers are likely to reach those feats again, unless and until that evolution takes off in a new direction. That makes evaluating their careers more challenging, when comparing them to other players already enshrined in Cooperstown. Starting pitchers have already had a tough time being elected through the regular BBWAA voting, with only 38 out of 75 (50.7%) current HOF starters elected through this method. Voters need to reconsider the qualifications for a Hall of Fame starting pitcher, or there will be multiple generations with few or no starters elected, and the well-qualified snubs will pile up. Santana provides a prime example of a starting pitcher whom the BBWAA ignored when he appeared on the ballot. His first and only opportunity to be on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot came in 2018. It was a stacked ballot that saw four players elected (Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman) and four future inductees also earning votes (Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Larry Walker, and Fred McGriff). Other polarizing players like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Curt Schilling were dealing with the ramifications of the Steroid Era and would never earn enough votes to be elected by the writers, but they, too, soaked up significant ballot shares. Santana received 10 votes (2.4%) and finished well short of the 5% minimum to stay on the ballot. Cy Young awards" width="200"> In a perfect world, Santana would have pitched into his late 30s or early 40s, while continuing to be one of the best in the game. That ideal world didn’t play out, and he didn't pitch in a big-league game after age 33. Other players, like Sandy Koufax and Kirby Puckett, were first-ballot electees to the Hall of Fame when their careers were cut short by injury. At the height of his career, there is no doubt that Santana was the best pitcher on the planet, as Koufax had been. His career just didn't end as dramatically or neatly. From 2003-2009, few pitchers matched Santana’s dominance on the mound. He was a four-time All-Star, won the pitching Triple Crown, and accumulated three ERA titles. Santana won two Cy Young awards and had a third one stolen from him by Bartolo Colón, because the voters valued wins more than other stats (ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, WAR). Every pitcher with three Cy Youngs has been elected to the Hall, or is expected to be elected when they retire. According to fWAR, Roy Holladay was the lone pitcher to provide more value in the seven years mentioned above than Santana did. However, Santana pitched more innings, had a higher strikeout rate, and posted a lower ERA. Santana’s name can’t magically reappear on the BBWAA ballot in future years, so now, he has to wait for the Era Committee (formerly the Veterans Committee) ballot that will include him. There are three ballots a player can be eligible for in this format, including the Contemporary Baseball Era (1980-present), Classic Baseball Era (Before 1980), and Contemporary Baseball Era (non-players since 1980). The next Contemporary Baseball Era Player Ballot is scheduled for December 2025, for inclusion in the Class of 2026. This committee is Santana’s next opportunity to be immortalized in Cooperstown, but getting onto the ballot for that committee's consideration can be as tough a hurdle to clear as getting the votes once there. So, how can the Twins help Santana over the next 22 months? Players seemed to be helped by having more visibility during spring training or the regular season. Santana has joined the team at spring training in previous years to work with younger players, especially pitchers. He threw out a ceremonial first pitch during last season’s playoffs, which got his name out there on the national stage. There are also opportunities for Santana to have more television and radio broadcast opportunities for the team or nationally. He has appeared on broadcasts in recent years when he has been in town for the team’s Hall of Fame ceremonies. There is no guarantee that Santana wants more visibility, but it might help his candidacy for the baseball world to see how he has impacted the game since he retired. Santana deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and the Twins might be able to find subtle ways to increase his chances. They ought to try, anyway. Will Santana be enshrined in Cooperstown? How can the Twins help him with his candidacy? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are projected to have one of baseball’s best bullpens in 2024. What spots are still open in the bullpen, and which players have a chance to make the Opening Day roster? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Kyle Ross, Gary Vasquez - USA Today Sports Last season, the Twins' bullpen was a giant question mark for most of the first half. Many fans thought the front office should attempt to acquire a relief pitcher or two at the deadline. Instead, the team relied on internal options, including players returning from injury and shifting some starters to bullpen roles. It was an equation that worked in the season’s final weeks, and helped the team win its first playoff series in two decades. Minnesota’s front office has taken a new approach to the bullpen in 2024, including acquiring arms in trades, signing free agents, and claiming veterans off waivers. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli coached for the Rays, and the Twins might be trying to follow in their footsteps. By following this strategy, Minnesota would try to offset their lack of starting pitching depth by relying on more volume from a deep bullpen. Last season, Tampa Bay ranked third in baseball in bullpen innings and won 99 games, which the Twins would love to emulate. So, what bullpen spots are up for grabs during spring training? Let’s break it down. The Locks: Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa The Twins will have an eight-man bullpen, and these five names are locked to be on the team unless an injury occurs. Durán will be used in a similar role to last season, where he is the ninth-inning man, with the team occasionally turning to him for a multi-inning appearance. The other four will also be used in late-inning roles, with Baldelli being able to turn to the pitcher performing the best at that point in the season. The only battle in this group will be who pitches before Durán regularly. Thielbar will see the most critical appearances against tough left-handed hitters, and the Twins have other lefties in the mix for earlier in the game. Jax ran into some issues with BABIP, but finished the season with a 2.45 ERA with a .567 OPS and 12.3 K/9 in the season’s final month. Injuries limited Stewart to 28 appearances, but he dominated with a 0.65 ERA and 12.7 K/9. Topa was acquired from Seattle in the Jorge Polanco trade after being a late bloomer and pitching full-time at the big-league level for the first time at age 32. Last year, he finished 14 games and earned multiple saves, bringing another element of late-inning experience. Out of Options: Steven Okert, Jay Jackson Okert was recently acquired in a trade that sent Nick Gordon to the Marlins. Over the last three seasons, the left-handed pitcher posted a 3.51 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP and 10.8 K/9. Gordon and Okert are out of options, so there were multiple reasons why the trade made sense for both teams. Jackson signed a one-year deal for $1.3 million with a $200,000 buyout on a $3 million club option for 2025. He has bounced between 10 MLB organizations and two Nippon Professional Baseball clubs. Last season, he posted a 2.12 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 in 25 appearances for Toronto. Both players are expected to make the roster since they are out of options, which would account for seven of the eight bullpen spots. In the Mix: Kody Funderburk, Josh Staumont, Louie Varland, Jorge Alcalá, Cole Sands, Josh Winder, Ronny Henríquez (NRI), Zack Weiss, Matt Canterino, Matt Bowman (NRI), Ryan Jensen (NRI) Minnesota has quite a few options for the final bullpen spot, and there are multiple ways the team can go with that spot. Funderburk had the inside track to the final bullpen spot, before the team added Okert. He will still get opportunities at the big-league level, but he will likely start the year at Triple-A. Staumont was my pick for the last bullpen spot in my latest roster projection, and that is even clearer after he met with media members earlier this week. He said, “I’ve been 100 percent for a couple months at this point.” Staumont has been a set-up-caliber reliever in the past, and he has the potential to be a pivotal contributor to the late innings this year. Minnesota used Varland as a dominant bullpen arm for the playoffs last season, but he likely begins the season as the Opening Day starter in St. Paul. Sands, Winder, and Henríquez are options if the team wants a long reliever on the roster. They will likely make frequent trips back and forth between St. Paul, though Henríquez was removed from the 40-man roster this winter and will have the hardest time regaining a toehold in MLB. Weiss was claimed off waivers from Boston earlier in the same flurry of moves that made Jackson's deal official. His arm slot and release point create good induced vertical break on his mid-90s fastball, which can be difficult for hitters to track. Overall, he has three pitches (fastball, slider, and cutter) with a Stuff+ grade of 109 or higher. Alcalá was a vital part of the team’s bullpen in 2021, before dealing with injuries last season. He posted some strong numbers in the Dominican Winter League (14.5 K/9) during the offseason, and the team hopes he can use that as a springboard to a healthier 2024 season. Canterino, a former top pitching prospect, is returning from Tommy John surgery in August 2022. The team kept him on the 40-man roster, and there is a chance that a bullpen role will keep him healthier moving forward. Bowman and Jensen would likely need strong spring performances or multiple injuries to earn a roster spot. As spring training begins, the eight-man bullpen currently sits with Durán, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Topa, Jackson, Okert, and Staumont. However, there are always surprises in spring training that can change the outlook for the team. Which player earns the last bullpen spot? Can the Twins have baseball’s best bullpen in 2024? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

Rodriguez would be eligible again next year if he hasn't made his debut and is still ranked highly on prospect lists.

Spring training begins this week, with Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers reporting to Fort Myers. Here is how the 26-man roster would shake out if the season started today. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson and Katie Stratman, USA Today Sports It was a slow-moving early offseason for the Twins, before a flurry of moves in recent weeks. The Jorge Polanco trade has the most significant impact on the 2024 roster, but the club has also added a veteran hitter and bullpen pieces. Minnesota is still looking to add another outfield bat, so other changes could still be coming for the team’s Opening Day roster. Here are the names to watch as spring training begins. Catchers (2): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers There was some discussion about trading Vázquez this winter, but it doesn’t seem like something the Twins were ever serious about. Minnesota likes using a two-catcher timeshare, and that plan worked last year, with neither catcher missing time on the injured list. It’s rare for a team to only need two catchers in a season, so the Twins will probably need to rely on more depth in 2024. The Twins added Jair Camargo to the 40-man roster earlier in the offseason, so he’d be the next man up if one of the starters gets injured. Infielders (6): Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Santana The Twins must get a better performance from Correa this year, after he played through plantar fasciitis in 2023. At his best, he’s a superstar, and he needs to return to that level for the club to reach its full potential. Julien is being handed the keys to second base for Opening Day, but top prospect Brooks Lee is waiting in the wings. Kirilloff is among a group of former top prospects who have seen their roles altered because of the Santana signing. After battling numerous injuries, it’s an important year for him to prove he can stay healthy and hit like he did as a prospect. Lewis is looking to build off a tremendous rookie season and has already been touted in some corners as a dark-horse MVP candidate. José Miranda is another name fans should remember in the infield mix, but Santana’s addition pushes him off the roster. Outfielders (5): Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach The Twins believe Buxton will be able to play center field regularly in 2024, and that’s why the club has yet to add to the outfield group. There is still a possibility for the club to add a right-handed hitting outfielder to provide more depth to the bench, so this is one area where it's unlikely that the group has been finalized. Castro will see time in center field when Buxton needs a reprieve. Kepler’s name surfaced as a trade candidate, but that’s happened for multiple years, and the team has held firm to their high asking price. Wallner will be an intriguing player to watch, and there is hope for him to avoid the sophomore slump. Nick Gordon’s trade to the Marlins opened a bench spot for Larnach, but he would be pushed to Triple-A with another outfield addition. The Twins will also rely on other outfielders on the 40-man roster, like Austin Martin, when the need arises. Rotation (5): Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Anthony DeSclafani The rotation’s most prominent change has been the addition of the veteran DeSclafani in the Polanco deal. His installation pushes Varland to Triple A to begin the year, which is something the club did with Ober last season, and he ended up pitching over 140 innings for the Twins. When the offseason began, many believed Minnesota would be active on the trade market to acquire a playoff-caliber starter, similar to what the front office did last year with López. Those deals haven’t developed, and the Twins hope Ryan and Ober can take the next steps in their young careers. Behind Varland are other young options like Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Brent Headrick. All three of those arms are expected to make starts for the Twins in 2024. Bullpen (8): Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Steven Okert The bullpen has seen the most changes in recent weeks, with the team trading for Topa and signing Jackson. Overall, FanGraphs projects the Twins bullpen to be the best in the American League, a far cry from where this unit was last season. Varland is also a candidate to join this group, but the Twins are committed to him in a starting role at the moment. They don't have enough rotation depth to convert him proactively. Jorge Alcalá and Staumont must prove they are healthy before being given roster spots. Kody Funderburk is also in the bullpen mix, but doesn’t make the Opening Day roster with the addition of Okert in the Gordon trade. Alcalá, Cole Sands, and Josh Winder will make relief appearances this year, but they each have an option remaining, so they will move back and forth from St. Paul. The Twins have also been claiming other relievers and trying to pass them through waivers when the club needs a roster spot. Any of those players could impress in camp and make the team. How do you feel about the team's depth at multiple positions? What will change with the 26-man roster before Opening Day? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

For years, MLB teams were incentivized to leave MLB-ready prospects in the minor leagues to gain an extra year of team control. Under the new CBA, there are ways for teams to earn extra draft picks when prospects get immediate opportunities and perform well, and the Twins have that avenue open with Brooks Lee in 2024. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Entering the 2015 season, Kris Bryant was coming off a monster year in the minor leagues, hitting .325/.438/.661 with 34 doubles and 43 home runs. It was one of the best minor-league seasons ever, and he looked more than prepared to step into a role at the big-league level. Instead, the Cubs sent him to Triple-A Iowa to begin the season, under the pretense of needing to work on his defense at that level. In actuality, it was a way for the team to gain an extra year of control over the player. Bryant played seven games at Iowa before the team deemed him ready for his big-league debut. Many teams have manipulated a player’s service time, but this was allowed under the previous rules, and the MLBPA wanted a way to avoid this issue. During the last collective bargaining agreement, the MLBPA and owners added a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) to reward teams for promoting their best prospects at the start of the season. According to MLB.com, “An MLB club can earn a Draft pick after the first round if a PPI-eligible player accrues one year of service as a rookie and then factors into a major award. That means he either has to win his league’s Rookie of the Year award or place in the top three in MVP or Cy Young voting prior to qualifying for arbitration.” So, how has this impacted teams in recent years? In 2022, the Mariners added Julio Rodríguez to their Opening Day roster even though he had yet to play a game above Double A. He had a terrific season and won the AL Rookie of the Year. Seattle was awarded the 29th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, added an extra $2.8 million to their bonus pool for the draft. They selected Jonny Farmelo, a high-school outfielder, whom they signed for an over-slot amount to lure him away from the University of Virginia. During the 2023 season, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll took home Rookie of the Year honors after making their respective clubs out of spring training. Arizona was awarded the 31st overall pick (and Baltimore the 32nd) in the upcoming 2024 MLB Draft. Both teams will also see additional bonus pool money added to their overall total because of these high picks. Eligibility for the PPI in the 2024 season is based on the preseason top-100 prospect rankings from MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN. Minnesota has three eligible prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Brooks Lee. Jenkins and Rodríguez aren’t expected to debut this year, but Lee is on the cusp of the big leagues after finishing at Triple-A St. Paul in 2023. The Twins haven’t indicated that Lee is in contention to break camp with the club, but it is certainly within the realm of possibility. Minnesota traded Jorge Polanco earlier this offseason because of the team’s infield depth, including Eduoard Julien being the projected starter at second base. Then, they traded left-hitting utility man Nick Gordon to the Marlins. The Twins think highly of Lee, and he has arguably the highest baseball IQ of any prospect in the organization. Injuries could always change the equation and push Lee into the team’s Opening Day plans. Even if Lee made the roster, there is no guarantee that he would perform well enough to win the AL Rookie of the Year. Baltimore's Jackson Holliday is the favorite to win the award, after a tremendous 2023 season that saw him move from Low A to Triple A and rake at every step up the ladder. He is widely considered baseball's best overall prospect, and the Orioles have already experienced the upside of this system firsthand. Lee would need to perform better than Holliday and other favorites like Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford. In all likelihood, the Twins will end up making their decision about Lee's season-opening assignment based on the health of their roster and the quality of his play this spring, rather than based on the PPI. It's a nice tiebreaker, though, because it pushes teams to give fans more of what they want--young players getting immediate chances to contribute in the big leagues. Should the Twins be aggressive with Lee to start next season? Is it worth pushing him for the team to get a chance at an extra draft pick? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Trying to predict the future with a team’s top prospects can be an exercise in futility. However, looking into the crystal ball can provide a glimpse into the organization’s future. Here are the prospects that will sit at the top five of the team’s prospect list in 2026. Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear, USA Today Sports In recent weeks, Twins Daily has been counting down the organization’s top prospects entering the 2024 season. The Twins had a terrific rookie class in 2023, and multiple top prospects are on the cusp of making their debut next season. By 2026, Minnesota’s farm system will have different names closing in on the big leagues. 5. Connor Prielipp, LHP TD Current Ranking: 17 Prielipp had Tommy John surgery in 2021 while in college, which is one reason the Twins were able to select him in the second round back in 2022. Last season, in July, Prielipp underwent a UCL repair surgery with an internal brace. Since it is his second major surgery, he likely won’t return to game action until the second half of 2024. Prielipp has been limited to 6 2/3 innings in his professional career, but he has one of the highest ceilings among the organization’s starting pitching prospects. There are no guarantees with starting pitching prospects, and the Twins might need to shift him to a high-leverage reliever due to his injury history. ETA: 2026 4. Brandon Winokur, OF TD Current Ranking: 9 Minnesota took Winokur with their third-round pick in 2023 and signed him to an over-slot bonus to lure him away from UCLA. Last season, he played in 17 games and hit .288/.338/.546 (.884) with five doubles and four home runs. He is already a hulking figure in the box with a 6-foot-5 frame that will likely add more muscle and power as he matures. There is a chance he will be able to stick in center field, but it seems more likely for him to shift to a corner outfield spot. He has the potential to be a five-tool player, and he should be close to graduating from this list in 2026 ETA: 2026 3. Gabriel Gonzalez, OF TD Current Ranking: 3.5 Gonzalez was the top prospect acquired from Seattle as part of the Jorge Polanco trade. Many national outlets view him as a borderline top-100 prospect after splitting time last season between Low- and High-A. In 116 games, he hit .298/.361/.476 (.837) with 23 doubles, four triples, and 18 home runs. He swings at a lot of pitches out of the zone but can do so while limiting his strikeouts. Gonzalez has the potential to be an above-average hitter if he can have better control of the strike zone while moving up the organizational ladder. By 2026, Gonzalez should be on the brink of making his big-league debut. ETA: 2026 2. Charlee Soto, RHP TD Current Ranking: 8 Soto was the Twins supplemental first-round pick out of high school in Florida last year and has yet to make his professional debut. He moved from shortstop to the pitching mound in high school for his senior season. Scouts fell in love with his fastball in the high 90s to go along with other solid offspeed offerings. He will likely be the last player on this list to make his big-league debut because he has plenty of development to do in the system. The current front office regime has drafted more college arms, so it’s exciting to think about the long-term possibilities for Soto. During the 2026 season, he has the potential to be ranked as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects. ETA: 2027 1. Walker Jenkins, OF TD Current Ranking: 1 There is a chance that Jenkins won’t be eligible to be a prospect entering the 2026 season, but that would mean everything went perfectly during the 2024-25 seasons. In his pro debut, Jenkins hit .362/.417/.571 (.989) with five doubles, four triples, and three home runs in 26 games. He ended the year at Low-A, where he should begin the 2024 season. Fans just witnessed Jackson Holliday, baseball’s top prospect, move from Low-A to Triple-A during his age-19 season. Jenkins has the same five-tool potential as Holliday, but that progression might be aggressive. He will likely spend most of 2025 in the high minors and be close to making his heralded debut early in the 2026 campaign. ETA: 2026 For full transparency, here were my top prospect predictions in recent years with some strong picks and others that don't look so good in retrospect. There will also be other additions to the team's farm system over the next two years that can be added to this list. 2024 Predictions 2025 Prediction Do you agree with the rankings? Who do you think will make the team’s top prospect in 2026? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Jordan Balazovic was once a consensus top-100 prospect, but his career has followed a different path in recent years. Pitching development is challenging for any organization, and those complexities have been heightened as the line between starter and reliever continues to blur. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports For many evaluators, Jordan Balazovic possessed all the traits needed to be a long-term starting pitcher. His tall, sturdy frame helped him to showcase durability and have lots of success in his early professional career. Twins Daily ranked him as one of the team’s top two pitching prospects leading into multiple seasons, and he ranked among baseball’s top 100 prospects on all three top national lists at different points from 2020-2022. He seemed to have a combination of ceiling and floor that teams love to have in young starting pitchers. However, pitching development is rarely a linear path. On Wednesday, the Twins announced multiple roster moves, including designating Balazovic for assignment. The 25-year-old was out of minor-league options and was underwhelming during his first full season in a relief role last year. His 2023 campaign was marred by a spring training incident wherein he broke his jaw after being punched at a Fort Myers bar. Now, his future is in limbo, as the team seems ready to move on to other relief options. Balazovic’s development path is a reminder of the long slog for most pitching prospects, from the first day they sign as an amateur to stepping onto a big-league mound. Let’s look back at Twins Daily’s recent top prospect lists to examine each year’s top pitching prospects and how they have impacted the organization. 2023 TD Top Pitching Prospect: Marco Raya Raya is intriguing because he has plenty of upside, but the Twins have been overly careful with his usage throughout his professional career. Last season, he never pitched more than four innings in a start and topped out at 54 pitches. At the same time, Minnesota has been aggressive with him, pushing him to Double A as a 20-year-old. He faced older batters in over 88% of his plate appearances and held them to a .548 OPS. His small frame is one of the reasons some evaluators question whether he will be able to stick as a starter. The 2024 season will be critical in deciding his long-term role with the Twins. Other Top Pitching Prospects (2023): Simeon Woods Richardson, Connor Prielipp 2022 TD Top Pitching Prospect: Jordan Balazovic Coming out of the pandemic, the Twins pushed Balazovic to Double A, where he posted a 3.62 ERA with a 1.40 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. These were impressive totals, especially since he was over two and a half years younger than the average age of the competition at that level. Minnesota continued to be aggressive with him in 2022, sending him to Triple A, but he struggled badly and posted an ERA north of 7.00. The Saints needed him to continue starting games because of the injury woes at the big-league level, so Balazovic took his lumps before ending the season on a high note. His 2023 season started on the wrong note (see above) and never got back on track. Other Top Pitching Prospects (2022): Joe Ryan, Matt Canterino 2021 TD Top Pitching Prospect: Jhoan Durán Durán has developed into one of baseball’s best relief arms, with an overpowering repertoire of pitches. Entering the 2021 season, evaluating top prospects was difficult because no minor-league games were played in 2020. During the 2019 season, Durán pitched 115 innings between High A and Double A, with a 3.76 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9. His 2021 season was limited to five appearances due to arm issues, so the Twins shifted him to the bullpen to start the 2022 campaign. Durán now follows in a line of the best relievers in team history (Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Taylor Rogers, etc.) who failed as starters but became All-Star-caliber closers. Other Top Pitching Prospects (2021): Balazovic, Canterino The Twins have developed other starting pitchers over the last three seasons, even while the names above haven’t always panned out. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland will start a significant percentage of the team’s games next season, even though they were never considered the team’s top pitching prospect. Minnesota’s front office has also been able to trade for multiple starters who have played a significant role in the team contending in recent seasons (Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Kenta Maeda). As the adage goes, “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect,” which can be a tough pill to swallow for those fans clamoring for an organization to develop a pitching pipeline. What are your thoughts on the names listed above? Should the Twins be getting more out of their top pitching prospects? Leave a comment and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are signing Carlos Santana to add veteran depth at first base and designated hitter. His addition will have roster implications for four former top-100 prospects. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Reports over the weekend have the Twins set to sign Carlos Santana to a one-year, $5.25-million deal. The veteran switch-hitter can fill multiple roles on the Twins roster, but any addition this close to spring training’s start will impact other players on the roster. Minnesota has former top prospects filling multiple roles for next season, and four of them have seen a shift in their projected usage after Santana signs. Alex Kirilloff Highest Top-100 Ranking: 18th (Baseball America, 2021) Fans' last memory of Kirilloff is the diving play he missed at first base in the playoffs against Houston. It was later revealed that he had been dealing with a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. Kirilloff looked like one of the best-hitting prospects developed in the Twins organization, but he hasn’t lived up to those expectations. Injuries have sidetracked Kirilloff’s professional career, from Tommy John surgery in the minors to wrist and shoulder issues in the big leagues. There are no guarantees that Kirilloff will be 100% healthy in 2024, so Santana adds depth at first base while having more defensive experience at that position. Previous Projected Role: Regular first baseman, especially against right-handed starters Current Projected Role: Platoon first baseman, with time at DH and corner outfield José Miranda Highest Top-100 Ranking: 90th (Baseball America, 2022) Miranda struggled through a shoulder injury last season (56 OPS+ in 40 games) and saw his spot at third base taken over by Royce Lewis. Minnesota will have 13 position players on the roster, and Santana’s signing limits the available bench spots. Unless an injury occurs, Christian Vázquez, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro will occupy three of the four bench spots. Miranda had a chance to make the Opening Day roster as a platoon option at first base, but that changed with Santana’s signing. Miranda will be sent to Triple-A, where he must prove he is healthy and can hit his way back to the big-league level. Miranda still has a place in the team’s long-term plans, but his stock has dropped significantly over the last year. Previous Projected Role: Platoon option at first base and designated hitter Current Projected Role: Depth at Triple-A Nick Gordon Highest Top-100 Ranking: 35th (Baseball Prospectus, 2018) The Twins are quickly running out of roster spots with their moves over the last week, and Gordon is out of minor-league options. As a left-handed bat, he doesn’t offer enough to the roster as a backup outfielder, and the team might not trust him in an infield role. Gordon was one of the team’s lone bright spots in 2022, but he hit .176/.185/.319 with eight extra-base hits in 40 games last season. Gordon deserves a chance to be on a big-league roster, and the Twins only have so many bench spots; he might be left without a seat. Minnesota can try to sneak him through waivers, but another organization would likely claim him. Previous Projected Role: Utility Bench Role Current Projected Role: Out of the organization Trevor Larnach Highest Top-100 Ranking: 39th (Baseball America, 2021) Larnach is in a tough spot entering his age-27 season. The Twins have younger options who have passed him on the organizational depth chart, and he hasn’t shown the ability to claim a big-league role. Since his debut, Larnach has yet to emerge as the powerful hitter the team drafted with their 2018 first-round pick. In nearly 700 plate appearances, he has a 95 OPS+, with struggles against offspeed pitches being his most significant issue. There won’t be room for him on the Opening Day roster, which leaves him trying to break the mold of being a Quadruple-A player who can’t get significant big-league playing time. Previous Projected Role: Depth at Triple-A Current Projected Role: Pushed further down the depth chart Only some top prospects can make it at the big-league level and find sustained success. Last season, the Twins had a trio of rookies perform well, but that group also passed many of the names above in the team’s long-term plans. This quartet of players will get opportunities in 2024 when injuries arise, and it will be critical for them to prove they can live up to their billing as former top prospects. The front office, for their part, needs to be on the lookout for ways to get value out of some of the guys being quietly squeezed out of the picture. Which player above will have the most significant impact on the 2024 roster? Will Gordon be in the organization on Opening Day? What’s Larnach’s role moving forward? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

For many fans, the Twins’ payroll has been a focal point throughout the winter because of uncertainty surrounding the team’s television contract. Now, the team found out another, much smaller-market AL Central foe is spending in a big way, which is an embarrassing proposition. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports On Monday, the Royals announced a long-term extension with Bobby Witt Jr., their All-Star shortstop. It’s an 11-year deal worth at least $288.7 million, but there is a potential for it to be worth 14 years and $377 million if the Royals pick up a club option after the 11th season. Witt can also opt out of the contract after the seventh, eighth, ninth, and 10th years. To put this in perspective, the largest contract in Royals history before this deal was a four-year, $82-million contract with Salvador Perez. It is a franchise-altering move that sends shockwaves through the entire AL Central. Kansas City has been aggressive this winter, signing multiple players before inking Witt to a massive contract. Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Wacha, Chris Stratton, Will Smith, and Seth Lugo all signed as free agents, from the middle of December through the middle of January. While those players might not move the needle for the Royals immediately, it shows their fans that the team is attempting to get better, after a disastrous 2023 season that saw the club lose 106 games and finish in last place in a dreadful AL Central. Adding all those salaries into the team’s 2024 payroll, Kansas City will have a payroll close to $138 million, with a luxury tax payroll of $161 million, the highest total in the AL Central. As currently constructed, the Kansas City Royals have the AL Central’s highest luxury tax payroll, projected at $161 million, followed by Minnesota ($154 million), Cleveland ($131 million), Chicago ($129 million), and Detroit ($119 million). The Twins ended last season with an estimated final payroll total of $159 million, a team record. Minnesota’s front office has been direct with fans that the payroll would drop this winter because the team’s television contract expired at the end of last season. A loss of $55 million in television revenue means the team’s payroll will likely sit between $125-130 million for next season. However, the team is close to a one-year contract to return to Bally Sports that would pay the club north of $40 million. While that deal isn’t official, there is no indication from the team that they will increase payroll when a new contract is in place. There are multiple reasons for the Twins to be embarrassed by the Royals outspending them in any given season. Market size is one of the most significant indicators of payroll spending, so teams like the Dodgers and Yankees have the highest payrolls from one season to the next. According to Nielsen, Kansas City ranks as the 34th-biggest television market in the United States, behind multiple cities without an MLB team (Columbus, Hartford, San Antonio). Minneapolis-St. Paul’s market ranks 15th, just ahead of Denver and Miami. Last season, the Twins’ payroll ranked 16th in MLB, while the Royals spent $60 million less than Minnesota and ranked 24th. The Royals’ television contract is also under the Bally Sports umbrella, with their deal worth a reported $48-52 million per season. Like the Twins, their television future beyond 2024 is likely headed for a different home, but it didn’t stop the Royals from spending big. Many teams have been passive on the free-agent market this winter, but Kansas City has targeted players that fit specific needs and spent money despite the uncertainty of future television revenue. Fans can point to the roster and see how the team is improving, which is something Twins fans haven’t been able to do this winter. All this is made more galling, though, by the fact that the Twins are squarely in the middle of a competitive window they need to fight to keep open, while the Royals are near the nadir of an ugly rebuild. Kansas City hasn’t made the playoffs since they made back-to-back trips to the World Series in 2014 and 2015. During that stretch, there have been some dark seasons for the Royals, including three seasons with 97 losses or more. Minnesota has had four playoff appearances since Kansas City last played in October, which results in more revenue. The Twins also average 700,000-800,000 more fans in attendance per season, which is also tied to the team’s spending. The team has expressed optimism about burgeoning attendance for 2024, based on season ticket sales in the wake of their playoff wins last season. There is no defensible reason for the Twins to spend less money than the Royals, but that's the current reality which will add another layer of frustration for Minnesota fans in what has already been a frustrating offseason. Should the Twins be increasing their payroll? Is it fair to compare Minnesota and Kansas City? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins have attempted to trade Max Kepler for multiple years but haven’t received what the team views as his perceived value. So, what value does he provide the Twins for 2024, and is there still a chance he will be moved this winter? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler stands alone as the longest-tenured Twins player following Jorge Polanco’s departure from the organization. Both players signed as 16-year-olds on the international market back in 2009. They grew up and spent half their lives in the Twins organization. Kepler’s time in the organization is also nearing an end with one more year of team control, but rumors have swirled about him being traded for multiple seasons. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported that the Mariners inquired about adding Kepler to the Polanco trade. Seattle would have needed to add more to the trade to even out the value. However, the Kepler side of the deal didn’t gain steam, and the teams ended up agreeing to terms for the players in the Polanco deal. Because of his expiring contract, Kepler’s name will be tied to trade rumors until the trade deadline passes later this summer. It becomes a complicated situation with the value he can still provide the Twins, but that amount is shrinking the longer they hold on to him. Kepler’s Value to the Twins The Twins front office has highly regarded Kepler when teams have inquired about him via trade. He’s coming off one of his best offensive seasons as he hit .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 22 doubles, two triples, and 24 home runs. His overall numbers don’t tell the story of his 2023 campaign. At the All-Star Break, Kepler was hitting around .200 with a .688 OPS, and there were conversations about whether a younger player should replace him. His second half was tremendous as he morphed into one of Minnesota’s best offensive performers with a .926 OPS. Those totals were better than his numbers in his breakout 2019 season. Looking at Minnesota’s roster, there is a need for Kepler, mainly if he can produce like he did in the second half. Currently, Kepler projects to be the team’s regular right fielder, with Matt Wallner getting regular time in left field. The Twins’ other corner outfield options include Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach. Castro is coming off a season where he posted a 106 OPS+ and gave the team 2.6 WAR. Gordon and Larnach suffered through disappointing seasons, so it’s hard for the team to hand them a starting job. If the Twins shifted to one of these players, there would be a downgrade in performance compared to Kepler. Kepler’s Value to Other Teams Kepler has one year remaining of team control for a team-friendly $10 million. According to FanGraphs, Kepler has provided the Twins with more than $10 million in value in every full season since 2016. Last year, he was worth over $20 million, the second-highest total of his career. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify the surplus value associated with players who could be potentially traded. Kepler’s surplus value comes in at $8 million, slightly lower than Polanco’s $9.4 million, but he has an extra year of team control. If the Twins traded Kepler, there are free agent outfielders that might be a better fit on the Twins roster because they are right-handed. There has been a need on the Twins roster for a power-hitting outfielder for multiple seasons, but the club hasn’t found a fit. Jorge Soler, Adam Duval, and Tommy Pham are all still available and would be solid right-handed hitters who can play in the outfield. Soler hit 36 home runs for the Marlins last season and posted a 1.080 OPS against left-handed pitching. Duval combined for a 119 OPS+ and played all three outfield positions. Pham was a playoff hero for the Diamondbacks and had trade rumors connecting him to the Twins in the past. Kepler can continue to provide the Twins with value this season, but the roster is hardly complete at this juncture of the offseason. It would make sense to trade Kepler if Minnesota spends money on a right-handed bat. Will the Twins still consider trading Kepler? How much value does he have in a trade? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Simeon Woods Richardson struggled last season at Triple A, but there is more than one reason to be excited about what he can provide the Twins in 2024. Here are three reasons to believe in the young starting pitcher. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Twins Daily has been counting down the team’s top 20 prospects this week, with multiple players expected to impact the team next season. Simeon Woods Richardson finished just inside the top 20, after pitching most of last season at St. Paul as a 22-year-old. In 113 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.91 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 96-to-61 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His overall numbers were disappointing, but there are reasons for optimism. On my personal list, I ranked Woods Richardson as the team’s 11th-best prospect, eight spots higher than he finished in the overall rankings. As Seth Stohs wrote on Monday, SWR fared much better in the second half, with a 3.11 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in just under 67 innings. Those improvements are just the start of why fans should be excited about what he can offer the Twins in 2024. Reason 1: Stuff+ Tom Froemming recently posted a video (see below) showing that Woods Richardson ranked 10th in Stuff+ among all pitchers at Triple-A, and that included some rehabbing major-league arms. Stuff+ looks at the physical characteristics of a player’s pitches, including release point, velocity, and vertical and horizontal movement. According to FanGraphs, the Stuff+ model attempts to capture the “nastiest” pitches in baseball. Last season, Woods Richardson sat in the low 90s with his fastball, which he combined with three offspeed offerings. Even with a strong Stuff+, he had a tough time missing bats. For his career, he has averaged 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors, but last season, his rate dropped to 7.6 with St. Paul. There is hope for his strikeout rate to increase, especially with the characteristics of his other pitches. Reason 2: Age Woods Richardson has been aggressively pushed up the organizational ladder since he was a 17-year-old in the Mets organization. He has been over three years younger than the average age of the competition at his level throughout his professional career. During the 2024 season, he faced older batters in 91.9 percent of opponent’s plate appearances, yielding an opponents' line of .261/.350/.426 in 418 at-bats. Over the season’s final months, batters posted a .642 OPS against Woods Richardson, so there were signs of improved performance. Luck also played a role in his poor performance early in the season. Woods Richardson wasn’t missing enough bats, so more balls were being put in play against him, resulting in higher BABIP totals. From April to June, batters hit .315 against him, with a .369 BABIP. Batters went 49-for-238 (.206 BA) from July to September, with a .240 BABIP. It’s also important to note that CHS Field in St. Paul has favored hitters, which can impact a pitcher’s overall numbers. Reason 3: Development Woods Richardson has previously struggled, especially when being pushed to a higher level for the first time. In 2021, he reached Double A and got his head knocked in, with a 5.91 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP across 53 1/3 innings. Minnesota had him repeat that level in 2022, and he had one of his best professional seasons, including pitching well for St. Paul. In 107 1/3 innings across two levels, he posted a 2.77 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP, including 9.6 K/9. It was a tremendous season, putting him back on the map as one of the team’s top pitching prospects. Throughout his career, SWR has worked on mechanical adjustments to get the most out of his lanky frame. He’s used recent offseasons to refine his strength and conditioning program to better handle the rigors of starting pitching. One of his most significant alterations is using his delivery to be more efficient in his direction to the plate, which can coax extra velocity. During his strong second half, there were also changes in his pitch usage. Against left-handed hitters, he used his change-up more regularly, and there were times when that pitch gained some vertical depth. With righties, he used his slider more often and commanded it better. Walks have haunted him in the past, so his ticket to the big leagues is his better command with his fastball, a pitch with some cut, and a higher whiff percentage with his secondary pitches. Pitching development is a non-linear path, and fans should still be hopeful about Woods Richardson. What improvements will Woods Richardson make next season? What is his ceiling? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article