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Kenny Powers

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Everything posted by Kenny Powers

  1. Kenny Powers
  2. Kenny Powers
    My prediction of starting rotation: 1. Lopez 2. Gray 3. Ryan 4. Maeda/Ober (not sure which one pitches, but other will be available for long/piggy back innings) I believe Keuchel will be in the pen as he might be valuable as a situational lefty over Moran/Headrick.
  3. Kenny Powers
    This is where I'm at. It might be too much for traditionalists to completely move on from live umps. But they can continue to baby step it. They've already added some replays. No reason to not be able to instantly review some balls/strikes. It would have to be on a limited basis so as not to balloon game length. Maybe similar to NFL - each side gets 2 challenges/game. But at least have a safety net in place to review calls that significantly impact the game. We have the technology - use it.
  4. Kenny Powers
    It's not only handling the pitchers. But it's the evaluation of talent. I realize I have the wonderful benefit of hindsight. But what if we had these three guys to fill out our bullpen? Yennier Cano (R). 2023 stats: 1.65 ERA. 1.00 WHIP. 96.6 mph VFA D. Coulombe (L). 2023 stats: 2.77 ERA. 1.10 WHIP. 91.5 mph VFA Ian Hamilton (R). 2023 stats: 1.72 ERA. 1.17 WHIP. 96.3 mph VFA I know everyone wanted them to go get bullpen help this year. But their recent track record is not great. Lopez, Fulmer and now Floro...none of them turned out to be any better than guys we already had in the system. I'm all for giving these AAA guys an opportunity. Certainly Funderburk. And maybe see what Varland looks like coming out of the pen?
  5. Kenny Powers
    The good: * He's pitching better of late (albeit only one month/four appearances) * He's young (just turned 23) * He's been on the prospect lists/radar for the last five years - so there must be some talent there * He got his first taste of MLB last year and gave us 11.2 good innings. The bad: * He's been hurt * So far this year he's been pretty brutal (except the last four appearances) * Last year when he pitched for Twins, his average fastball velocity was only 93.2 mph (when healthy). He's on the roster and certainly can be part of the back end mix. I'm not sure I see super star in his future. But he is still young so he has time to prove it at AAA. Let him dominate there and then I'll pay more attention.
  6. Kenny Powers
    Good read. A lot of info that I was wondering about. Right now his bat is certainly good enough to play almost anywhere. But I couldn't help but raise my eyebrows when I saw his BABIP was almost 100 points above average. I think we can all agree that probably won't hold up. So...we shall see. Keep playing him until when (or if) we find someone better. It seems like the Twins keep ending up with guys who are sort of postionless (Steer, CES, Julien) or at best poor defenders...
  7. Kenny Powers
    Ha! He can't be though...he's over 25.
  8. Kenny Powers
    Interesting angle. I'll be watching for the rest. I couldn't help but think of the bad luck we've had with injuries while looking at this list though. Three of the five guys listed have missed significant time: #10 - Martin. Out for most of the year. #9 - Miranda. Hurt/Out for most of the year. #6 - Kirilloff. Hurt/Out for a good chunk of this year (and previous).
  9. Kenny Powers
    Good read. I think signing Gallo "might" have been an ok decision at the time. He was a career .780 OPS guy with decent defense in OF and 1st. With Buxton and Kirilloff both hobbled, it gave us another guy. As noted in the article, it initially looked like a good decision when he started hot. But now....yeah, I'll join the "grab your torch and pitch fork"" crowd. He's not getting better. We certainly should be able to upgrade him (addition by subtraction). The sad part is that his OPS is almost 50 points higher than Correa and only 10 points lower than Buxton. (Insert crying face).
  10. Kenny Powers
    From what I see, the Twins record from July 5th - July 28 was 10-8 (not 8-12 as you wrote). As far as the 1.2 IP, did you look at the context for why that was? From what I can see, it was a well rested pen the day he was recalled on July 5th. The next day was a complete game by Lopez. And then they had a day off after that. The following week was the All Star break. Definitely not "stretched thinner than thin" as you wrote. Sands pitched twice the week following the All Star break which I think it pretty normal. He allowed zero earned runs in those two appearances. They didn't pitch him the final week before he was sent down. But looking at the Bullpen usage worksheets from that week, I don't really see an over worked pen. In fact, when they optioned him on the 28th, they brought back a position player (Polanco) instead of another arm. You have your right to your opinion that he's a "wasted roster spot". But I'm just not seeing anything to get too bothered over with Cole Sands. He just turned 26. This is his first year as a full time reliever. He's doing really well at AAA (1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 12.6 K/9). Other than one clunker, he's pitched well when called upon this season. As far as I'm concerned, he might be a useful arm for a few years.
  11. Kenny Powers
    Yes. He's given them 14 innings (so far) plus flexibility and depth. How has he hurt them? To win games, you need outs. Using that last bullpen spot to rotate in AAA guys helps save the rest of the bullpen from being over used. It's not turning the 26 man roster into 25 as you stated. It's turning the 26 man roster into 27.
  12. Kenny Powers
    Cole Sands has pitched in 10 games this year. Eight of those ten appearances, he gave up zero runs. In one of the other two appearances, he pitched two innings and gave up one (solo) HR. And, yeah - he had one (6 run) clunker. His numbers at AAA this year are very good. I'm fine with keeping 25 year old Cole Sands with options over 33 year old Coulumbe without options. They've had success rotating AAA guys in/out when the bullpen gets burned. Sands, Winder, Ortega, Headrick etc. all have been part of that rotation/flexibility. It's like having a floating active roster spot and all those guys have been fine IMO.
  13. Kenny Powers
    This bullpen is interesting. Depending on what stats I look at, they rank either middle of the pack at worst or top 5 at best in MLB. 2nd - FBv 2nd - WHIP (tied) 11th - ERA 12th - K/9 14th - LOB% 15th - WAR 16th - Holds One thing did stand out to me though... and that was saves/save opportunities. Duran is 20 out of 24. The rest of the BP is 6 out of 23. Maybe we have to go back to the old timey designated closer.
  14. Kenny Powers
    Others have already touched on this, but they invested $300 million into Correa and Buxton deals. Those are the two horses that we expected to carry this offense...
  15. Kenny Powers
    My five based on current OPS vs. Career (expected) OPS: 1.) Vazquez. Current .593. Career .680 2.) Buxton. Current .731. Career .760 3.) Gallo. Current .733. Career .780 4.) Polanco. Current .710. Career .770 5.) Correa. Current .686. Career .820 These guys are just flat out under performing.
  16. Kenny Powers
    This is great news. They are doing well in the draft. It's the trades that seem to be challenging part for this regime. My hope is that Lee and Lewis might provide some pressure to Correa. We're paying him $33M/Yr. and he's batting .220 with a lower OPS than Willi Castro. We need better. No need to move Lee off SS just yet. It's good to have options.
  17. Kenny Powers
    I agree with what you wrote - with just a couple caveats... Regarding Gray...I would rather keep him than trade him away at any perceived discount. Imagine the uproar if we made such a trade. I'm not saying you were suggesting that - I'm just saying maybe that's what they were finding for trade offers. And maybe not trading him gives us an increased chance of re-signing him? IDK. Regarding the older, under performing roster - I'm totally with you. Hope is never a good strategy and it seems they just keep hoping those older guys will come around. Maybe they will. But maybe they won't. In the meantime, to tag on to your thought process of opening things up for the younger bats, I see there are five guys with an .800 OPS or better. All five of those players are our next wave of young guys: Wallner, Julien, Jeffers, Lewis, Kirilloff. The good news is that (when healthy), these guys seems to be making their way into the line up. If these young guys can stay healthy, I'm confident they will push some of those older guys off the roster. * Disclaimer. I count Kirilloff's OPS as .800 but it's actually .799. Still - those are our top 5 OPS guys by a long shot.
  18. Kenny Powers
  19. Kenny Powers
    4 lefty (Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach, Waller) 5 right (Correa, Buxton, Miranda, Lewis, Jeffers) Agree on uncertainly/injuries - but injuries are part of the game and they have plenty of other young guys who should be able to step up. They've really done a nice job of drafting.
  20. Kenny Powers
    I agree with the premise of your write up. But it seems like most posts/write ups are mentioning this Tommy Pham. I don't get it. I mean, if he can be had for cheap- sure. But I hope to Gawd they don't give up anything of great value for a 35 year old guy. Yes, he's playing well so far this year. But the two years prior his OPS was about the same as Michael Taylor. I'm not confident he's going to hit here the same as he's hitting hitting in NY. We saw this last year with the Lopez trade. The Twins sort of chased a guy on a hot streak and got burned - big time. To me, this year's team seems like the one you go "half in" on. Make some small, supplemental moves to get a right handed bat and bullpen guy. But no need to give up big prospects or anything of great value. I feel like our success is being built via the draft and we just need to be patient. Julien - age 25 Lewis - age 24 Kirilloff - age 25 Wallner - age 25 Miranda - age 25 (need to get him healthy/right) Jeffers - age 26 Larnach - age 26 That's seven guys - add in Buxon and Correa as your "veteran presence" and we good. Plus lots more young talent on the way. Trust the process.
  21. Kenny Powers
    Good write up. I've been watching Prato for a while now. My gut tells me this is still a flash in the pan - but we shall see. I'd love to give the hitting coach credit. But then I look at what Martin and Miranda are doing and I think "not so fast". IDK what to think. Michael Helman was another UT guy who seemed to come out of nowhere and start mashing. Assuming one of those two can maintain anything close to what they were doing at AAA, they certainly can push guys like Farmer, Castro, Gordon off the roster.
  22. Kenny Powers
    I agree with everything you wrote, but with one caveat...never say never. IF (and it's a big if), someone were to completely blow us away with a haul for like Sonny Gray, then I'd certainly consider flipping Gray. It would have be a great deal though. Think of being on the reverse side of some of our pitching trades: Pablo Lopez for Luis Arraez. Would you trade Gray for 25 year old batting champ? I probably would. Tyler Mahle for CES, Spencer Steer and Steve Hajjar. Would you trade Gray for two highly ranked AA bats and another flier arm? I'd probably consider it. Even the original Gray trade in reverse...would you trade Gray for 19 year old Chase Petty right now? The second two trades are high risk/reward. I'd consider them based on how I feel about Keuchel. But a reverse Arraez trade might be just the boost this team needs. IDK. We won't need 5 starters for the playoffs - right?
  23. Kenny Powers
    Guys I'd be fine trading: 1.) Polonco. People will counter with "we'd be selling low". But we don't know that. He could keep getting hurt/worse. Julien has earned the 2nd base job. Moving Polonco to 3rd at age just blocks Lewis again. Polonco is still a good player (when healthy). Some team would certainly be happy to add a vet like that for the stretch run (assuming they don't have the depth we do at 2nd base). 2.) Kepler. People will counter "he's just starting to hit". But this is his 9th season. He's had exactly ONE season with an OPS over .800. And that was back in 2019. Is .743 career OPS good enough for a corner OF? Adequate perhaps (with good defense). But Gallo is also in his 9th season and has put up over .800 OPS four times including as recently as 2021. I'm not advocating for either guy as our starter. My point is we won't miss Max because Gallo could give us the same or better if Wallner/Larnach fail. But I'd want to the young guys to get their shot. Gallo could also be a PH weapon. People will say "we won't get much for those guys". That's true - by themselves. But what about other benefits? The immediate benefit would be opening roster spots for younger guys who are out performing the vets. Julien OPS = .930. Polonco OPS ..747 Wallner OPS = .906 Gallo OPS = .743 Kepler OPS = .721 Larnach OPS = .715 Wallner doesn't have a lot of ABs. But Gallo/Kepler/Larnach all look about the same to me. We won't miss Kepler. Also, there are always fringe prospects that they won't protect from Rule 5 that could be added to any deals to sweeten the pot/return. That opens up more roster spots for guys they like better. So any return we get from those guys would just be whipped cream on top of the cake IMO.
  24. Kenny Powers
    I hope they can move a couple of under performing vets to keep spots for up and coming guys including: * Royce Lewis (24) * Edourd Julien (24) * Matt Wallner (25) Those three guys are literally currently the top three on the team in OPS. Add in a couple of other younger guys like: * Kirilloff (25) * Jeffers (26) Suddenly - we have a very nice young core of guys - all of which are performing as well (or better) than the older vets. I don't want to see any of those young guys going anywhere. I know it's age discrimination (you can report me to HR), but the only guys I want move are all age 29 or older.
  25. Kenny Powers
    Yup. Also, if we are flagging guys based on negative WPA, then it's going to flag more than Pagan.... Pagan WPA = -0.09 G. Jax WPA = -0.08
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