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Kenny Powers

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Everything posted by Kenny Powers

  1. Kenny Powers
    It's all semantics, but I believe there are some generally accepted bench marks. First, it's based on level of competition. A 23 year old in AAA is "young". A 23 year old in rookie ball is not. A lot of people will reference the average age per level to add perspective when talking about a player which I always appreciate. Second, (I see other have already touched on this) there is the experience factor. Fair or not, a 22 year old drafted out of college and makes it to the majors in two years at age 24 seems "younger" than another 24 year old that spent 8 years in the minors (like 16 year old that was drafted out of the Dominican). That's also why guys like Ober and Ryan seem "young" because they only have a couple seasons under their belt at the big league level compared to guys like Correa and Buxton. And yes, as others have noted, I think there are bench marks on the other side too. I think most would say over 35 is "older" for a ballplayer with the assumption that players that age are in the decline. But then you have guys like Thielbar who have their best seasons at age 34, 35 and 36. Go figure.
  2. Kenny Powers
    I was thinking about the loss of value this morning too. Example, I wonder if back in 2022 we could have shipped Balazovic to the Reds for Sonny Gray instead of Chase Petty? I have no idea if that would have flown or not and obviously hindsight is always wonderful. But yeah - it's crazy to think how much perceived value prospects have...until they don't.
  3. Kenny Powers
    It's interesting....part of me sort of feels like you would want to at least see Balazovic throw this spring before making such a move. He's been in the system for 7 years and has consistently been listed as a top prospect including last season #17 by Baseball America and #21 MLB Pipeline. He's still only 25. But...on the other side of the coin, his actual production hasn't lived up to the hype. His AAA numbers are: 116 innings, 6.58 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. I personally saw him pitch in a couple games at St. Paul. I remember wishing I had one of those whiplash neck collars after watching several hard hit long balls. He had his shot. I'm glad they are not going to just carry him and plug up a roster spot. Nothing wrong with making guys earn their spots and Balazovic didn't do enough to keep his.
  4. Kenny Powers
    I see others have already touched on this before me, but you just can't trust most bullpen arms year over year. Guys like Jorge Lopez and Dylan Floro seemed like good bullpen arms when we got them, but struggled here. Same with in-house guys like Jovani Moran who went from really solid young arm to off the roster in one season. Then on the other end, you pull a 30 year old guy like Brock Stewart out of no where and he becomes Mariano Rivera. I assume injuries have a lot to do with the volatility as these guys try to pitch through or come back from injuries. Bottom line, we won't know what we have until they start ramping up in Spring Training. Then we see who's healthy and throwing strikes. It seems like every year when pitchers report we learn that someone we are counting on isn't healthy. It's just part of the game unfortunately.
  5. Kenny Powers
    I feel better about the trade after I looked at the Twins website today. They slotted Gonzalez as #4 in their top 30 prospects. And I see Bowen slotted at #27. I didn't expect Bowen to be ranked that high, so I'm now fine with the return. I still don't think much of the two MLB arms they threw in, but they will both contribute depth. And who knows - maybe one or both will surprise me. Regardless, knowing we added two guys to our top 30 prospects for Polanco makes the deal look ok to me. It actually in the ballpark to what we got for Berrios in his prime (Simeon Woods-Richardson and Austin Martin). That's kinda crazy to think about as I would certainly expect Berrios in his prime to bring back way more than a declining Polanco. (And yes, I'm aware that SWR and Martin were both ranked much higher at the time of the trade - I'm just drawing a parallel of getting two top prospects back for a vet player.)
  6. Kenny Powers
    Do some teams pay that? Yes. Does that apply to these guys? Debatable. DeSclafani is almost 34 years old. His last two seasons (combined): 23 starts. Record: 4-10. 118 innings pitched. 96 Ks. 5.16 ERA. 1.37 WHIP. 4.43 FIP. Is that worthy of a $15M+ deal? If so, I would do a hard pass myself. Topa is almost 33. He had a decent year last year. But looking at his historical stats, last year was an outlier. I don't trust it. Especially with his injury history. He pitched the following innings leading up to last year: 2020 - 7.2 total 2021 - 18.1 total 2022 - 27 total If he was durable and had a longer track record of success - yes, he might be worth what you say. But I'm not seeing as is. Looks like a Hyundai with 200,000 miles on it to me. It might run fine now, but don't expect that to last...
  7. Kenny Powers
    This is where my head is at. And I'd also change the description some posters are using of "solid bullpen arm" for Topa to "had one good year". I personally wouldn't trust he can repeat that. He's 33 years old and has a history of arm problems. IMO, guys like DeScalfina and Topa are normally floating around out there as Free Agents to be had for nothing (think Matt Magill or Brock Stewart). Both guys are older than Polanco which is disappointing to me as I hoped to get back some building blocks vs. patches. So to me, this was basically trading Polanco for a top 100 prospect. I'm ok with that...but it's another one of the Falvey trades where I feel like we might have given up more value than we received. IDK. Obviously we'll see how it plays out. It just feels like thrift store pick up on our part to me.
  8. Kenny Powers
    I think you have to be especially patient with International draft prospects since many of them are signed as 16 or 17 year olds. Using Kepler and Polanco as examples....it took each about 7 years to establish themselves as MLB players. But they were still only 22 (Polanco) or 23 years old (Kepler) when they finally did become MLB regulars. I'll bring up Yennier Cano again because he was an exception (signed as a 25 year old) and contributed on the MLB level within a couple years. But even he didn't have any success until last year (age 29).
  9. Kenny Powers
    You might be referencing a different prospect list, but looking at the Twins website "Top 30 prospects", I count eight International signings (NAME and Twins Top 30 Prospect rank): 1.) EMMANUEL RODRIGUEZ (#3) 2.) DANNY DE ANDRADE (#10) 3.) JOSE RODRIGUEZ (#12) 4.) JOSE SALAS (#17) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade 5.) RICARDO OLIVAR (#21) 6.) YASSER MERCEDES (#22) 7.) BYRON CHOURIO (#26) Drafted by Marlins, but acquired in Luis Arraez trade 8.) YUNIOR SEVERINO (#28) Plus we had Yennier Cano (traded for Jorge Lopez) who was pretty successful last year for the O's. And of course Kepler and Polonco are former International signings. I probably missed some guys too, but if I did, I'm sure someone else will chime in. Anyway - I'm actually surprised at how many of these guys show up as top 30 team prospects.
  10. Kenny Powers
    I knew that name rang a bell! I just looked him up. We actually traded for him to start 2023 (January 10th). Then we designated him to make room for Michael Taylor. He ended up being claimed by the White Sox. So, now we got him back. BTW, the guy we gave up in the trade was an 18 year old pitcher from the DSL Cristian Jimenez. He didn't do great this past year in the FCL (5.12 ERA and 1.34 WHIP).
  11. Kenny Powers
    I like the Morales signing. He put up an .827 OPS with a solid batting average. Certainly worth a flier as a potential late bloomer. We had a similar situation last year when we signed Camargo and he went on to have a break out season. We have a little catching pipeline forming: Level/Player (age) - OPS MLB: Jeffers (26) - .858 AAA: Camargo (24) - .826 AA: Pat Winkle (23) - .787 A+: Cossetti (23) - .898 and Cardenas (24) - .779 A: Ricardo Olivar (22) - .855
  12. Kenny Powers
    I was hoping Henriquez would get a shot this past season since he's young and been a top prospect for several years. But if you look at his AAA stats, he's definitely not too good for AAA. He still has work to do. Also, it looks like he throws around 93 which is fine, but not exactly flame thrower material that teams drool over. So, I get why they dropped him. Every year they pick up free agents (like Brock Stewart or Megill) that can probably be better - at least short term.
  13. Kenny Powers
    I don't think he OP meant it literally as in zero chance. I agree with his opinion that it might be unlikely he's more than a UT guy. But to your point - you never know. Eduardo Escobar in an example of someone who broke out of the UT mode to be much more. I didn't see that coming at the time.
  14. Kenny Powers
    I certainly think he moves Nick Gordon off the roster for next year. Down the road, there are a few other guys that might push for UT playing time including: Martin, Prato, Helman, Schobel etc. To your point though, he has been a nice addition to this year's team. I don't think he will ever be more than a UT guy - but that's just my opinion. It's nice to have guys that can move around and not hurt you.
  15. Kenny Powers
    Buxton went to the DL because of a hamstring. I don't think it's unrealistic to think he could be recovered enough if we make it to the next round. He first went on DL August 1st and was playing CF for the Saints 30 days later. Of course - he aggravated it as you noted. But it's now mid-October (another 45 days later). The hammy should be healed by now. I know he has a chronic knee issue too, however that seems to be something he can play with. Last reports I saw were he was hitting live batting practice before the Wild Card series. I think Royce Lewis needed to be the DH for the start of the playoffs is part of what kept Buxton off the roster. But Royce is playing 3rd now - so that opens up a possibility of Buxton being available to contribute there. Of course - we have to advance or it's all moot. I'm not sure what's "counterfactual" about anything I wrote?
  16. Kenny Powers
    I don't think we can expect 550-600 ABs/year from either guy based on their history. My whole point was hoping we could squeeze some juice at the right time (next round - if we can get there). That's part of what makes the playoffs so fun for me is watching guys come up big (regardless of what they did during the regular season).
  17. Kenny Powers
    Well...we have to get to next week first. Yesterday was a big let down. We shall see.
  18. Kenny Powers
    I don't see them as "worlds apart" myself. Look at the four years prior to this season: Buxton: 976 AB; .258 BA; 70 HRs; .874 OPS Correa: 1558 AB; .281 BA; 74 HRs; .840 OPS They were each an All Star one time in those four years. Both guys brought excellent defense at key positions. Like I wrote before - these were the two engines that should be driving this team. Seeing Correa start to come on just reminded me of how this team was supposed to look.
  19. Kenny Powers
    Even if the Twins training staff determine he's healthy enough to play CF for the next round? You still would prefer Taylor to Buxton? I noted in a previous post that Taylor had a career year for us and essentially matched Buxton's offense this year (with Buxton being a DH). But thinking about it more...I could easily spin that the other way and say Taylor's best year with the bat matches Buxton's worst year. If healthy, I'm not sure there would be much difference on defense. IDK. I see both sides. Just thought I'd spin it out there to read how other's see it. I'm just really pumped to see Correa step up. It's a different team with him leading.
  20. Kenny Powers
    I can understand and appreciate your stance. Taylor actually had a career year for us and essentially matched Buxton's (DH) offense during the regular season. You can't ask for more than that. That's why I originally didn't want to see Buxton on this playoff roster. But again - Buxton/Correa are stars with track records. IF they are healthy, it could be pretty fun. Just a big "if" though.
  21. Kenny Powers
    This is where my head is at. Obviously I wouldn't want to add the Buxton we saw during the regular season (basically a DH). But as I wrote in my original post - IF, he can play CF (meaning healthy), I wouldn't mind seeing if he too can rise to the occasion under the big lights. I agree with you that a healthy Buxton can certainly match anything Taylor is doing the field and obviously the additional offensive potential. Anyway - I'm sure they know where Buxton is at health wise and are handling it accordingly. It was just me thinking out loud after seeing Correa star so far. Buxton and Correa were supposed to be the two main engines this season and it would be pretty cool if they both caught fire in the playoffs.
  22. Kenny Powers
    I was pretty down on both Buxton and Correa this year mostly because the cost vs. production. Big money brings big expectations and both guys had down years. However, the playoffs are made for star players and watching Correa rise to the occasion is softening my stance on Buxton. I still wouldn't want to add him as a only a DH. But man, if the guy can still play some CF, I kind wouldn't mind activating him to see if he can do what Correa is doing. We're not really getting anything from Taylor, so the bar is pretty low right now.
  23. Kenny Powers
    Thinking about this more, I believe you are right and I am wrong. I had in my Danielle Hunter who the Vikings had under contract and he was holding out for a new/better deal a while back. But I think that's because NFL contracts are generally not guaranteed. You are correct that MLB seems to have a better handle on that (NBA as well).
  24. Kenny Powers
    Does the "lock them up early at a discount" really work? I'm getting flash backs to guys who wanted to renegotiate because their current contract was no longer at market value. I don't think there are really any true discounts anymore. People are generally paid what they are worth once their rookie deals are over. Take full advantage of our years of cost control. If he stays healthy and lives up to the hype - he will be paid accordingly regardless (IMO).
  25. Kenny Powers
    The Buxton decision is easy (for me anyway). I haven't seen anything to believe he's healthy to play in the field and we have better options for DH right now. So - I don't need him on the roster anymore this year. Get healthy and come back next year to take your CF job back. The Game 1 start is very difficult. On the service, it should be Joe Ryan. But Ober has really been pitching great. This is a tough call. My gut says they go with Ryan to avoid any hurt ego/feelings. But I don't think they could go wrong starting Ober. I think Maeda is the designated long man to come in and save the bullpen in case of blowout. Funderburk - I feel he will be useful as a lefty. I wouldn't drop him. Especially as these series start to go longer. Stevenson (while situationally useful), I think is the one guy I feel is a luxury spot right now. If they make any changes, I feel his spot would be the one to use.
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