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NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

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Everything posted by NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin

  1. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    The thing that frustrates me about the Pohlads, especially the last couple of years, is there seems to be a disconnect between the front office (who they hired) and what they've done with the budget. These payroll fluctuations are frustrating as a fan (and I'm assuming they're also frustrating for the front office) and do not facilitate efficient use of money.
  2. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    MAT stole bases, played excellent defense at a premium position, and was healthy the entire year. Joey Gallo did not steal bases, did not play a premium position, and was not available every day. That’s why people loved MAT- he provided lots of value to the team, even though his bat was not good at all. That’s why there should be reason to be excited about Bader- he provides value to the Twins, even though he’s likely going to have a wOBA below .300.
  3. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Bader has three very good tools, and is going to be in the bad-to-average range at the plate. It likely won’t move the needle much, but he’s a better signing than any of the other remaining free agents. Hopefully he plays like 2023 MAT and we can talk about how valuable this signing was.
  4. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Shameless plug, but I did a mini-analysis of bullpen spending last offseason: What the data shows is that these $5-$15M APY relievers don't move the needle at all. $10M is a heck of a lot of money to spend on your 3rd or 4th best reliever when the Twins don't have a 1B. What would have moved the needle would have been signing Tanner Scott, because that would have moved everyone else into lower leverage roles, and the data shows that bullpens with a member who makes more than $16M/yr are going to be good bullpens. The data also shows that bullpen success is correlated with how deep starters pitch. Spending $10M-$15M on a veteran inning-eater (like Jose Quintana or Charlie Morton) for the bottom of the rotation will improve the bullpen more than signing Kenley Jansen or David Robertson If you're concerned about bullpen depth, I'm certain that there will be plenty of cheap (both monetarily and trade comp) mid-leverage relievers available at the trade deadline. I'd much rather save that money for a first baseman or starter.
  5. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Do the other teams in the division have more than $20M/year to spend every offseason? I must be missing something because save for last year's Royals' spending spree, I don't know any teams (besides the CWS) in the division who enter November every year $20M in the black. I would argue that the Twins have a very sustainable payroll structure. Correa, Buxton, and Lopez make a combined ~$75M. Then you have ~$25M invested in role players with one year left like Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, and Alcala. That leaves all of the guys in Arb or Pre-Arb making ~$30M. Every team in our division has that same model. 50%-60% on three or four stars, 20%-35% on short-term, cheap veteran deals and Arb3 players, and the rest on controllable young players. The Cardinals, Reds, Mariners, and Brewers all have the same pay structure as well. The year the Diamondbacks won the NL pennant, they also followed this payroll structure. It's the way mid-market teams operate with any realistic chance of success. We've been unable to do anything the last couple of offseasons, because the 2024 and 2025 budgets were/are $25M less than the 2023 budget. The Pohlads essentially forced the front office to give up their free agency budget. Being 4.5 wins away from a playoff spot, I'm almost certain that a Sonny Gray, Teoscar Hernandez, Sean Manaea, Jack Flaherty, or Joc Pederson would have made up the 4.5 game difference for the Twins last year. I have a feeling that we'll be having similar conversations about Walker/Santander/Scott/O'Neill/Pederson next offseason.
  6. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    The Dodgers spent twice that amount of money on players who weren't on the 2024 roster last year. So did the Yankees. The Mets spent five times that amount. Even the cash-strapped Guardians spent twice that amount on Jean Segura, Scott Barlow, Ramon Laureano, and Shane Bieber last season. Those are your four championship series teams, you'd be hard-pressed to complain about those clubs being inefficient in their use of $16M. I'm pretty sure Carlos Santana was worth more than $16M to the Twins last year. Overall, those four players contributed a combined 1.8 bWAR, which is $8.89M/bWAR which is good. Without Santana manning 1B last year, I don't think we would have gotten into September with a realistic chance of going to the playoffs. The difference between our club and those clubs is that we're in a position where the front office is being chastised for turning $16M (which they had to create by trading away Polanco) into 1.8 bWAR, and three of those four clubs are spending $160M/year every offseason on new free agents.
  7. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I'm sure if you looked at any mid-market club, you'd find similarly disappointing offseasons for each of them. When is the last time the Rays, Guardians, Mariners, Rockies, Reds, Pirates, Brewers, or Marlins had an "exciting" offseason? The Royals were exciting last winter after 10 years of sitting on their hands. The only mid-market teams that make "splashy" offseason moves, the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, have ownership groups that invest in the team when they are doing well, not reduce the payroll be $30M the year after winning their first playoff game in 19 years. It's not Falvey's fault that the Twins enter the offseason every year with $20M to spend.
  8. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I wonder what tax loophole makes this a beneficial deal for Ohtani. From the player's perspective, it seems very disadvantageous to defer payment, unless those deferrals reduce Uncle Sam's cut of your contract. MLB's rules allowed the Dodgers to pay more to the luxury tax last year than the Rays and Athletics spent on their entire rosters. I don't understand why teams are allowed to do this type of maneuvering to move payroll into future years when large-market teams can just spend whatever they want.
  9. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Sands threw more innings than any other bullpen arm last season. I love Sands as a reliever. If the starter has to be taken out in the 5th, he can give you 1.2 innings of quality pitching. He can also come in and pitch a lockdown 8th and be a reliable bridge to Duran. Those types of relievers are very rare and are valued very highly. I don't see the Yankees or Tigers discussing moving Luke Weaver or Tyler Holton into starting roles. Cole Sands is not as good as either player, but when you turn a failed starter into a good-to-great relief arm, it doesn't make sense to immediately try to transition them back into a starter.
  10. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Because of the plus defense, Lee should have a good chance to stick in Minneapolis, even if his bat doesn't produce. The lack of RH bats in the corner outfield spots means that Willi Castro is going to be in the outfield against lefties. That opens up an infield spot for Lee to be in the lineup against lefties regularly. If Julien is moved to first or DH, Lee has no serious competition for his spot. Lee should be allowed to take his lumps at the bottom of the order and develop without having to look over his shoulder if he goes through a slump or is working through some struggles. I think that will be very positive for his development and give him a good chance of breaking out in the second half.
  11. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I really wonder what the Padres would be asking for in return. The fact that they are willing to deal him in the offseason indicates that they are probably looking to "cash in" on whatever value he has left. In my mind, it seems very similar to the Juan Soto to NYY trade, where they cashed in on Soto's value, reduced their payroll, and filled several holes in their roster. Unfortunately for the Twins, there are plenty of holes in the roster, so we're not exactly in a position to trade two or three MLB or MLB-ready players. If that's what San Diego is seeking, I'm almost certain they'll find a better deal with the Orioles, Rangers, Cubs, Phillies, Reds, or any of the other teams with a bevy of controllable position players.
  12. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I think the best bet would be to hope that the team gets sold in a relatively quick manner, and then use an "updated" payroll to target one of the FAs that linger on the market until May. Ha-seong Kim won't be ready for a few months, and there are a ton of veteran relief arms that have yet to sign. I think that waiting and then signing makes more sense than trading a good hitter for a good pitcher (or vice versa), especially when there is no available payroll space. It's hard to imagine a trade happening for either Cease or King when their salaries would push the budget into the red (albeit, a Pohlad-imposed red).
  13. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Not just lately, but last year at this time, when he was going through his rough patch, it was changeups to Moniak and Peralta that cost us two games in LA.
  14. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Doesn't Jax have reverse splits?
  15. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Ended up working out okay. It's just weird to see a guy falter like that and then be trusted to grab three more outs when you have a closer capable of ending the game in the eighth.
  16. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Is that Jax coming out for another inning? Why not let Duran get six outs?
  17. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I fully understand this recent decision, though I maybe would have waited until the deadline to see if someone wanted to overpay. What I do not understand is why the Marlins chose to acquire Luis Arraez over the absolute haul they could've gotten from the Dodgers. They knew that he was going to get $10-$20M in his final two arbitration years, and even if he played to his ceiling (which he did in '23), that contract would not be very team-friendly. The Marlins traded Pablo Lopez and two top-30 guys to Arraez. Then they traded Arraez for three top-30 guys and a low-leverage reliever. They traded at least two years of ace-level production (and a 2-0 postseason record so far) for one batting champion season, a low-leverage reliever, and a top-30 prospect (gained three, lost two). Again, considering the haul they were asking from the Dodgers, I'd say that they did a poor job. Dodgers Rumors: Marlins' asking price for Pablo Lopez was insane (dodgersway.com)
  18. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    That's some terrible asset management by the Marlins. Considering the returns in the Luis Castillo, Dylan Cease, and Corbin Burnes trades, to turn Pablo Lopez into one year of Arraez and three borderline top-10 system prospects seems underwhelming. I'm not sure what the offers they received at the 2022 deadline looked like, but the Dodgers were reportedly in very hot pursuit of Lopez. Maybe this mismanagement will persuade them to deal Luzardo sooner rather than later.
  19. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I don't understand how people are beefing with this article. The Twins are tied for eight place, with less than half of the points of the teams ahead of them with zero 1st place votes. Based on success in the past five and a fifth years, this front office is objectively better than the FOs of the White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Mets, Marlins, Pirates, Cubs, Reds, Giants, and Rockies. That's 15 teams, at least, that the Twins are better than. Then, you have the Padres, Yankees, and Phillies, who have spent oodles of money and made risky trades in search of a World Series they haven't won. Also, the Nationals haven't done squat in the last 4 years, and the Astros have a brand-new coach and a 2nd year GM while being one of the worst teams in baseball so far this year. That leaves the Twins and nine other FOs (Orioles, Rays, Guardians, Rangers, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks) at the top. Seems pretty reasonable to be ranked 8th or 9th.
  20. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I wonder if this means that the FO is looking to add another OF. Maybe they feel really good about Martin/Castro playing CF if Buxton goes down, but the depth in the OF appears thin.
  21. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Not to be a debby-downer, but the reason why SWR's stuff+ is so high is his elite extension (~7'). His secondary stuff is pretty mediocre, and his fastball is pretty flat for being such a slow pitch. To me, SWR having such a high stuff+ has more to do with the flaws in stuff+ rather than him having good stuff.
  22. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    I'm unsure where to find the 90th percentile EV stat, but 101.5mph does not look concerning to me; it looks encouraging. For starters, he's posted 116mph EVs in batting cages, so the raw power is there; it's up to the Twins to work on his swing to maximize his power potential. Secondly, if we assume that his average exit velo is 85mph and the standard deviation is 12.1 (to make the 90th percentile EV 101.5 mph), his 95th percentile EV would be around 109mph if his EV data followed a standard bell curve. For comparison, Eddie Rosario's max EV most years is around 108mph, Cody Bellinger's is around 110mph, and Kyle Tucker's is around 111mph. You don't need to be able to hit a ball 120mph to make it in the majors, and this is definitely not an SWR situation where we're going to be waiting five years for a velocity bump that never comes. I'd be much more concerned with refining his approach and improving his swing than trying to fix a non-existent problem.
  23. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    Exactly. Teams usually trade elite players for elite prospects/players. Players that are average but have high values (because of team control) usually require a package of average prospects/players. The Twins did a great job by acquiring a top-100 prospect with an elite ceiling that can be used in a package to acquire a top-of-the-rotation arm. As far a DeSclafani is concerned, he can slide right into Dallas Keuchel's role from the end of last year, and could provide a lot of value in July when half of the rotation is on the IL and you have a stretch of 25 games in 26 days. Or, he could get traded to a rebuilding team for a 40-grade prospect. Either way, Gonzalez and Topa are both great assets that will improve this organization, both this year and beyond.
  24. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    A combination of a weird French dude, a guy who just had jaw surgery, the coach's kid on a new team, the younger brother of a guy who used to be really good at baseball, and a bum who got non-tendered by a garbage AL Central team.
  25. NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin
    He's a top-100 prospect, he's viewed fairly. Walter Jenkins hasn't been to AA, but you'd be ludicrous to think that Polanco's trade value is anywhere close to Jenkins'. Again, Polanco has missed ~50% of the Twins' game's the last two years, is a bad defender, and only has two years of control. That's a very risky acquisition for the Mariners, too, so I don't think their value is too different.
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