Lou Hennessy

Louie Varland didn’t make the Opening Day rotation out of spring training, but he is every bit as vital to the team’s plans as the five pitchers that did. With such a small sample for his MLB career, it’s unreasonable to deem him as a star at this point. But he’s shown an interesting pitch mix that compares him to one of the best arms in the game. So what’s next for the pride of North St. Paul now that he has a more permanent spot in the starting five? Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Louie Varland didn’t spend the offseason planning for an easy ride to MLB stardom. He didn’t head to the Dominican Republic or Mexico to play winter ball. He didn’t hang around with an entire entourage of MLB players (aside from his brother Gus Varland , who is currently rehabbing in Triple-A for the Milwaukee Brewers). Instead, he mixed in his off-season workouts around a side hustle working for the man. More specifically, he worked for his old man, Wade, who owns Varland drywall. Surely, plastering drywall didn’t have some magical effect on his pitches, their individual intricacies and his execution of each offering. But those pitches in his repertoire are already off to a great start for the 25-year-old. They even share some key characteristics with a certain surefire future member of the Hall of Fame. So what has made Varland Drywall’s ace effective so far in his young career, and what can he patch up if he wants to reach his ceiling? One of the young right-hander’s biggest areas of growth over the last few seasons has been his fastball, especially in terms of adding velocity. He topped out at 88-89 mph while pitching for Concordia University, St. Paul, but has already ramped all the way up to averaging 95.7 mph on his heater in 2023. In his game this week against the Padres, he hit 99 mph. On its own, that velocity is solid, if unspectacular (45th percentile). But Varland’s fastball also boasts above-average spin, creating more deception for opposing hitters. So far, his four-seamer has resulted in a 26.1% whiff rate in his three starts, which is above the league average over the last two years (22.3%). He works quickly, using that fastball early in counts so that he can set the table for his strong secondary offerings. His changeup has had more swinging-misses than any of the other options in his repertoire (43.5% whiff rate), but he’s limited damage with his high-spin cutter (.267 opponent slugging percentage). On top of that, he has a plus slider that he’s used less often in 2023, but was his most effective offering in 2022. Look for him to start using it more as the season progresses and the league adjusts to him as a more permanent fixture in the Twins’ rotation for the time being. Interestingly enough, Varland’s pitches have a high similarity score to those in Max Scherzer’s 2022 repertoire in terms of velocity and movement according to Baseball Savant. Granted, this doesn’t mean that he’s bound to follow in the steps of a three-time Cy Young award winner. But it’s encouraging to see that his raw stuff bears a resemblance to a frontline starter in a season where he had a 2.29 ERA and struck out 30.6% of opponents faced. In order to have a performance in the same realm as Scherzer had when he was healthy last year, Varland is going to have to find a way to limit the damage on that same fastball that has developed into a mid-to-upper nineties weapon. While its growth has been impressive, it still gets knocked around a decent amount. It’s not uncommon to have a higher expected slugging percentage on fastballs, but Varland’s .690 mark in that regard is not sustainable for how essential it is when it comes to setting up the rest of the at-bat. This can be seen in the fact that he currently finds himself below average when it comes to barrel percentage (9th percentile) and average exit velocity (41st percentile). When hitters get a hold of one, it gets plastered, and not in the way that Varland is familiar with. With veterans Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda out for the foreseeable future, Varland is going to have an extended opportunity to hone his craft at the game’s highest level on the fly. Like he did with his dad in the offseason, he’ll have success by hitting the corners, working quickly and paving over the cracks that are presented to him. What do you think? Have you been encouraged by the North St. Paul product? What are reasonable expectations for Varland going forward? Let us know what you think in the comment section below. View full article

Oops! Missed the mark on that one. My mistake.

The Twins got the Top Gun out of Air Force Academy when they selected Griffin Jax in the third round of the 2016 MLB draft. Since then, his career has taken some evasive action, including a move to full-time relief duties. His stuff is there, he’s trusted by his manager and he’s in the prime of his career. What’s next for Captain Jax? Image courtesy of Baseball Savant From becoming the first player out of Air Force Academy in MLB history, to debuting as a mid-level starting pitcher prospect in 2021, to locking down high-leverage situations out of the Twins’ bullpen, Griffin Jax has gone through more turns than an F-22 Raptor aircraft. Now, manager Rocco Baldelli has entrusted him to be a late-inning, shutdown relief weapon. If you were to only look at his ERA as the true indicator of his value, you’d be somewhat underwhelmed by his results this year. But if you look at nearly any other figure in his stat line, it’s clear that Jax has the stuff to be a Top Gun in the Twins’ bullpen for the foreseeable future. Let’s be perfectly clear, nobody should be making any declarations about a 28-year-old pitcher based on a good-not-great ERA after the first month of a season. His 3.86 ERA would be totally welcome, if not celebrated by virtually every ball club. But some Twins fans aren’t quite as sold on Jax, and a lot of that probably stems from the three lone blemishes on his game log. He’s only given up earned runs in four of his 15 appearances, but the modest level of competition in that quad of games seemed to magnify their relevance. He coughed up two earned runs to the Miami Marlins in the first week of the season, gave up two runs to the Washington Nationals on April 21st, was responsible for the game-tying run in the lone loss to the Kansas City Royals last Saturday, and gave up the go-ahead run in Wednesday's loss to the Chicago White Sox. Those are four teams that are now projected to be well-below average when all is said and done in 2023, which unjustly caused many raised eyebrows when Jax didn’t mow them down. But even the best relievers give up runs every now and then, sometimes due to just having an off-day and sometimes it’s just bad luck. For Jax this year, the argument can be made that it’s mostly been the latter. His strikeouts are as high as they’ve ever been (10.4 K/9), his walk rate is the lowest of his career (5.7%) and he is among the best in the league when it comes to inducing soft contact. Just look at all of the stellar marks in his Baseball Savant profile. Not only are his batted-ball numbers quite strong, even elite in some regards, but they suggest that the hits he’s given up in his hiccup games are softer than they came across in the box score. Perhaps his performance is better represented by his Fielding Independent Pitching, which is worlds better than his ERA (1.75 FIP). His .257 Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) is dead-on when compared to his career rate, and his opponents’ lack of ability to land a hit off of him is laughable (.180 batting average against). So when teams like the Nationals or the Royals score off of him in highly-improbable ways, it’s hard to knock the guy. Maybe it’s bad luck, maybe Jax broke the unwritten law that a righty reliever should never throw two changeups in a row to a right-handed hitter, or maybe we’re talking about a comically small sample size. Either way, Jax doesn’t deserve much haste when looking at his season to this point. If he can keep playing to his strengths, his modest surface numbers will catch up to his peripherals. Notably, his strengths are plentiful. Jax has been lethal against left-handed hitters (.083 on-base percentage, best in MLB according to Inside Edge), opponents have a 38% chase rate against him (15th-best in MLB) and he’s allowed just a .105 slugging percentage on his slider (7th-best). So there’s plenty to like with the former Air Force Academy Falcon, and the light turbulence that fans have experienced is worth it in the grand scheme of things. If he stays on the flight plan that he’s currently using, projections suggest Jax could be as successful as a Tom Cruise blockbuster. What do you think? Is Jax bound for a breakout? What do you think he needs to do to be the Top Gun in the Twins’ bullpen? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below. View full article

I certainly don't mean to make it sound like Kepler should be run out of town. Like I said, he's been quite solid since coming back from the IL. The point is that he's going to leave this party eventually, even if it isn't in the near future. The product is still totally usable right now, but he's playing with an expiration date that guys like Larnach, Kirilloff and other young players don't have at the moment.

Max Kepler has been a solid contributor for the Twins since he became a regular in 2016. He’s even contributing right now. But it’s starting to feel like we’re watching him get the dreaded, drawn-out Minnesota Goodbye. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Everyone from Ada to Zumbrota has experienced this phenomenon. As a party or family get-together is starting to wind down, some guests will plant their hands on their knees demonstrably. They’ll make sure to say a key phrase out loud to nobody in particular. “Welp, it’s gettin’ to be that time.” “Better hit the ol’ dusty trail.” “Well, dear? Whadya say?” They’ll make their way towards the door, but they will inevitably find themselves unable to actually leave. They start new conversations, get into forgotten stories and exchange pleasantries in an accent that is so quintessentially midwestern that it would make the Coen brothers blush. Minnesotans know the script. After all, it’s their namesake send-off. It’s the notorious Minnesota Goodbye. And right now, it feels like the Twins are playing the part of gracious host, with Max Kepler being their treasured guest who just will not leave. Make no mistake, it’s not like Kepler is being kicked out of the party. The Twins seem happy to give him plenty of playing time as an everyday player based on various factors, from his defensive prowess to a team-wide slow start offensively. And it’s not unreasonable to expect him to bring some value to the table. Since returning from the injured list, his bat has reignited and his defense has been as charming as ever. Kepler was invited to the party for a reason. He’s accrued at least two wins above replacement in six of the last seven seasons, with the lone outlier being the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. But everyone has to leave the party eventually, and for the Twins and Max, it feels like they’ve had a few opportunities to bid adieu already. This past off-season was a perfect opportunity for a clean break. The outfielder still had plenty of value to likely suitors who were looking for a high-floor option at a reasonable cost, and the Twins had a small army of left-handed hitting outfielders that could slide into his seat at the table. The club’s signing of Joey Gallo felt like a telling sign that Kepler would be leaving the party. But as it turned out, that was more like Kepler making his way toward the coat rack, only to be reminded that he and his hosts had more to talk about. He continues to hang around the party at Target Field thanks to his strong marks when it comes to whiff rate (86th percentile), strikeout percentage (74th percentile) and barrel percentage (69th percentile). Those are all great features, and represent the good that Kepler can provide. And the Twins will gladly take that for what it’s worth. But there are other factors, both in terms of Kepler’s faults and the circumstances that surround the club’s current depth chart, that require the Twins’ attention. Since his brilliant 2019 season where he put up a robust .252/.336/.519 clip (122 wRC+), Kepler has maintained mediocre, unexciting numbers. He sports a .220/.312/.393 batting line in that time frame, which is just under league average. While the defensive shift limitations might gift him a few extra hits on ground balls, he’s settled into being a defense-first player with a diminishing walk rate and a newfound, crucial inability to perform outside of low-leverage situations this season (.574 OPS in medium-leverage, .452 OPS in high-leverage). The team’s perceived depth continues to improve, with Jorge Polanco already back to with the big league club, Alex Kirilloff knocking on the door of a triumphant return and youngsters such as Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and possibly Brooks Lee all tabbed to find their way to Target Field at some point this season. As each of these future contributors get planted into a role with the Twins, it will be harder to make time for Kepler. That’s partly by design, too. As many Minnesota sports fans know, you can never bank on the promise of top prospects making an immediate impact upon their call up. But you can account for them needing substantial playing time so that the club can take stock in what they have. Maybe that’s the idea behind Kepler’s contract that included multiple affordable option years at the back end. It gives the team flexibility when it’s time to part ways. But those options also have an unintended consequence of creating the situation that the Twins and Kepler find themselves in today. The club still likes their speedy outfielder, and I’m sure they’re really happy that he was one of their treasured guests at this shindig. Minnesota’s favorite son, Prince, painted a perfect picture for this situation with one of his most iconic lines. Life is just a party, and parties weren’t meant to last. It might not happen at this very moment, this week, this month, or even this season, but Kepler’s farewell is inevitable. He’s taking his sweet time as he and the Twins scoot towards the door, exchanging pleasantries for the umpteenth time. Make no mistake, the gracious hosts are giving plenty of attention to their continually-departing friend, but they also have an eye on the clock as they passively push him toward the dusty trail. What do you think? When do you see Kepler’s time with the Twins ending? Let us know how you feel in the comment section below. View full article

The Twins rotation has been mighty impressive through the first few weeks of the season. But we said something similar last year. Here’s why this year’s hot start is different, and what fans should expect going forward. Image courtesy of Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports Going into the 2023 campaign, there was optimism that the Twins’ starting rotation would take a major step forward. Top to bottom, the group represented a breath of fresh air despite some health questions on the back end. The addition of Pablo Lopez at the top, along with the returns of Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, had fans feeling optimistic that the club would find some consistency. There was also the added upside that Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda would return from their injuries of yesteryear and perform much closer to what the team expected when they acquired them. So far in this young season, that plan is coming together about as good as the club could have hoped. We’ve now seen a few trips through the rotation, and the starting staff has propelled the club to a competitive, hot start to the season. If that storyline sounds familiar to you, it’s for good reason. Just last year, the rotation was a major bright spot in April before coming apart at the seams as the season wore on. Does that mean fans should temper their excitement for this year’s class of starting pitchers? Or is there bound to be substantial regression to the mean? The answer is probably somewhere in between, but it’s interesting to look at the numbers from the first two times through the rotation in each year. There are a few key differences between the 2022 rotation and this year’s staff, namely the contrast in expectations surrounding the members of each group. For example, it’s not hard to expect better production from Lopez compared to Chris Archer. A healthy Mahle will surely outperform Dylan Bundy. Even this year’s version of Ryan has bigger expectations than he had a year ago. Expectations aside, the 2022 rotation looked strong through their first 10 games, igniting a spark of excitement for fans that have been begging for stronger pitching ever since baseball bloggers were buying Beanie Babies. In that short span, last year’s rotation had the second-best ERA in the league (2.96 ERA), the third-best walk rate (5.9%) and the fifth-highest rank when it came to runners left on base (75%). This year’s five starters also excelled in these areas through their first 10 games. They once again had the second-best ERA (2.62 ERA) and only trailed the Tampa Bay Rays, who are undefeated through their first 13 games. This year’s Twins rotation also ranked third-best in walk rate in their first two trips through the staff (6.2%) and they led the league in runners stranded on base (82.3%). Much of this improvement had to do with a massive increase in strikeouts. This increase has come from a better selection of put-away pitches, meaning a pitch selection once the count gets to two strikes. When the count gets to that point, the Twins have by far the best strikeout rate in all of baseball at 58% (league average is 42%). Maybe it's better execution, or the fact that each member of this year's staff seemingly came into the season with new pitches in their repertoire, but the fact remains that they have been far more lethal in put-away situations. Even in their hot start, last year’s rotation never showed that high-punch out power that the current group has displayed. In 2022, they started the season with a 20% strikeout percentage in the first 10 games (8th in the league), and stayed around that mark through the end of the year. This year’s club came out of the gate ready to rumble, mowing down opponents with a dazzling 31.4% strikeout rate in their first 10 games. That mark led the league. In hindsight, last year’s rotation success in the first 10 games ended up being a mirage. By the end of the season, their ERA dropped to ninth in the American League (4.11 ERA), their walk rate ballooned to tenth (6.9%) and they stopped leaving as many runners stranded (72 %, seventh in the league). The only rate that stayed relatively consistent was the mediocre strikeout totals, where they finished tenth in the league at 20.2%. Obviously there are a few different paths that this rotation can go down as the season progresses. If their strikeout numbers regress to the mean, it’s reasonable to expect the strand rate to start to balloon, and the staff ERA would likely follow suit. But if this group stays healthy and effective, especially when it comes to their high-punch out tendencies, they could remain at or close to the top of the leaderboard when it comes to these figures. And that would be a major breath of fresh air. What do you think? Is this year’s rotation bound for considerable regression? Or have they finally found a staff that can lead a contending team? View full article

Joe Ryan was a bright spot for a Twins pitching staff that lacked many, well, bright spots in 2022. After an off-season of growth and development, can the promising young hurler take things to the next level in 2023? Image courtesy of Peter Aiken, USA Today The Twins organization boasts an interesting crop of young pitchers that are ready to contribute to the big-league club in 2023. Few offer as much fan excitement as prized righty Joe Ryan as he enters his second full season in a Twins uniform. From his colorful personality, to his Grateful Dead entrance music, to his unorthodox fastball and his wacky collection of untraditional bikes that he rides to the stadium – very little is normal when it comes to the youngest gun in Minnesota’s starting rotation. The Twins probably like it that way. They acquired him in a bittersweet swap at the trade deadline in 2021, where the club and fans alike had to say goodbye to the cherished Nelson Cruz. Ryan then proceeded to surf into the hearts of pitching-starved fans, and into the blueprint of the front office for years to come. The 26-year-old Californian has shown that he can hold his own in a Major League rotation, with a career 3.56 ERA in 33 starts. But what’s it going to take for him to level up? For starters, Ryan is taking that wave head-on, as he’s one of a handful of Twins’ pitchers that did extensive training with Driveline over the off-season. Some players turn to this performance-training development program to clean up their mechanics, increase velocity, learn new offerings, or even reshape pitches in their repertoire. For Ryan, that was a focus on improving his slider, which he threw 17.8% of the time last year. It was also his de facto put away pitch when he got to two strikes in the count. However, the results on that offering did not merit the love it was getting from the righty. Opposing hitters batted .262 with a whopping .540 slugging percentage against that pitch, which was curious given the nearly 30% whiff rate that it produced. For some reason, the bender just wasn’t working as it should have. After his off-season working with Driveline, Ryan came into spring training ready to unleash his new and improved “Sweeper” which is essentially a retooled version of a slider that offers a more substantial glove-side break. That means that instead of just diving toward the ground as it approaches the plate, it also breaks away from right-handed hitters with a more slurvy bend. Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote about Ryan’s adjustments in a recent article, where he spoke to Driveline’s director of pitching about the thought process behind developing this new twist on a secondary offering. “He’s got the perfect (arm) slot for a sweeper,” Driveline director of pitching Chris Langin said of Ryan. “The main modification was an alteration to the grip. It was a spike on the index finger and it allowed him to stay in front of the ball when he threw it, which basically makes it when you’re in a game environment you’re not backing it up too much. … It was just pretty clear that if he can just develop some 50-grade secondary stuff, that’s going to help you a ton.” A better secondary offering will surely work wonders for Ryan, whose fastball has been his bread and butter for his entire professional career, and will likely remain that way going forward. His heater has some deception to it, and this allows for plenty of misses despite its modest 92 MPH average velocity on the pitch. Since 2020, opponents are hitting just .177 off of his fastball, good for 3rd-best among all qualified starting pitchers in that span according to Inside Edge. Not only that, but he’s allowed just a .319 slugging percentage on that pitch since his debut. That ranks 4th-best in baseball. Clearly, Ryan’s four-seam fastball is pound-for-pound one of the most effective heaters in the game. That’s why establishing a more successful secondary offering is essential to him taking his game to the next level. Early results are encouraging on that front. Ryan dazzled in his first regular-season start on Sunday against the Kansas City Royals, twirling six innings of three-hit ball with two walks and six punch outs. Better yet, his new and improved sweeper was a dazzling success. Ryan threw it 16 times, getting eight misses without allowing a hit. Look for him to continue driving that train going forward. Small sample aside, it’s encouraging to see that there is a process in place for adding a weapon to the arsenal of a pitcher that many around the organization consider to be a building block. Young players that find early success in their careers can have a tendency to try and stick to the status quo. But Ryan knows that baseball is a game of adjustments and the more that you give, the more it will take, to the thin line beyond, which you really can't fake. As long as Ryan keeps putting in the work to grow and develop just as he did this off-season, he's going to keep on truckin'. What do you think about Ryan's new sweeper? Does his new pitch change his chances of becoming a frontline starter in the future? Did you catch all of the Grateful Dead nods in the article? Let us know what you think in the comment section. View full article

Look, I'm not saying he'll be a surefire MVP or anything. I'm just relieved to have him now given the injuries to the current roster. Lack of depth killed this team in the last six weeks of last season. I'm glad there's higher-upside backup plan in place this year. I'm not calling for the team to hand him an extension after one game. There's no need to start building a statue for him. But my perspective on his addition has changed since he was signed. That's all.

"Man, I'm glad I called that guy. . ." - Billy Madison The Twins' signing of Joey Gallo was a head-scratcher when it was announced in late-December. Now, it’s one of the more essential transactions that the club made this off-season. So what changed? Image courtesy of William Parmeter The Twins went into the off-season with some clear needs on their roster. A left-handed corner outfielder was not one of them. In fact, that mold of player was one of the only assets that the club seemingly had in excess. Their surplus consisted of Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Then it was announced that two-time all star Joey Gallo would be joining that group, warts and all. This left many Twins followers, myself included, befuddled as to how this game of musical chairs would turn out. The move played into the notion that this front office likes a good contract more than it likes a good player, and it gave the team’s critics a fresh slab of red meat to feast upon. As a prototypical three-true-outcome player, Gallo would surely require ample playing time for the $11 million investment to be worth it. How might this impact the development of the young talent such as Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner? Where would Gallo play defensively for it all to make sense? Would this make a trade of one of the incumbent lefty bats all but certain? Clearly, Gallo’s signing created more questions than answers, and that tends to turn a lot of people off when molding a contending roster. But now, Gallo is one of the most vital cogs in the Twins’ 2023 blueprint. That begs one last question - did he change, or did we? When his signing became official in late-December, many griped about Gallo’s high-strikeout, boom-or-bust approach. That criticism is certainly valid. Gallo has a career strikeout rate of 37.3%, which is the highest among qualified active players. Not only that, but Gallo has only put 25% of his swings in play over the last two seasons, which is by far the lowest in the major leagues in that time. About a month later, the Twins shipped fan-favorite Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins in return for Pablo López and two prospects. This sent fans into even more of a tizzy, as Arraez is one of the premier contact hitters in the game. This magnified the bitter aftertaste that many were experiencing, whether that was fair to Gallo or not. But now, his fit on the roster makes more sense, especially given the injury concerns that are once again emerging in the lineup. Kirilloff was the on-paper starting first baseman for most of the off-season, but is now pegged to miss the beginning of the regular season as his recovery from last season’s wrist surgery is taking longer than expected. Second baseman and lineup stalwart Jorge Polanco missed the entirety of the Grapefruit League slate with knee soreness, and will once again hit the dreaded injury list. Even superstar Byron Buxton will be limited to designated hitter duties as he continues to recover from his many leg and hip ailments. This gives Gallo plenty of opportunity for playing time. That could mean sliding in as the regular first baseman until Kirilloff returns. It could mean more of an opening for him in the outfield, with Gordon shifting to second base. It could mean more starts in center field until Buxton is back out there. It could even mean increased time back at third base while Jose Miranda slides over to first. No matter where it happens, Gallo will get plenty of looks all across the diamond. The bigger question surrounds which version of Gallo’s bat comes north to Target Field. Will he be the behemoth that slugged 38 home runs in three different seasons? Or will he be the heir-apparent to Miguel Sano’s throne of punch outs? The good news is that Gallo did extensive training with hitting coach David Popkins over the off-season in an effort to make more contact. The Twins’ coach has been lauded by Gordon and Carlos Correa for the in-season work that paid dividends in the second half of last season. Hopefully Popkins’ tutelage will continue to be effective as he continues to work with Gallo, who is likely his biggest challenge yet. What do you think? Are you happy to have Gallo aboard as the Twins begin their 2023 campaign? Where do you think he will get most of his playing time? Do you think Popkins will be able to help Gallo as he did with Correa and Gordon in 2022? Let us know in the comment section below. View full article

The Twins emphasized depth when making their additions over the off-season. Even with a deeper roster, there are bound to be opportunities for players currently on the outside looking in. Which arms could be dark horse candidates to establish themselves in the big league bullpen at some point in 2023? Image courtesy of William Parmeter As spring training winds down, we’re starting to get a better picture of what the Twins’ roster is going to look like when the team heads north to Kansas City on March 30th. Piece by piece, the depth chart is being whittled down. However, not every player that gets chipped off in March is bound to remain in the minor leagues all season long. As much as everyone is sick of hearing about health concerns to key contributors, injuries are inevitable. So are under-performances from players that make the big league roster on Opening Day. When these inevitabilities happen, a successful Twins team is going to need some unexpected characters to step up and claim effective roles on the club while they can. That’s especially true when talking about the relief corps. Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar, Griffin Jax and Emilio Pagan are seen as near-locks to make the club out of spring training, and other arms including Jorge Alcala and Jovani Moran are other current front-runners to claim bullpen spots right off the bat. Beyond that group, there are a handful of players that could find their way up to the big league club when given the call. Here are three dark horse candidates to make a name for themselves out of the Twins’ bullpen in 2023. Jose De Leon After signing the 30-year-old Jose De Leon to a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training, the Twins finally got their longtime target. He was the headliner in a rumored trade proposal with the Los Angeles Dodgers back in 2018 when the club was shopping second baseman Brian Dozier. DeLeon is no longer the prized starting pitching prospect that he was back then, but he could still provide value to a Twins’ bullpen that has sorely lacked an effective multi-inning weapon. His upside was clearly evident in an appearance for team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, where he dazzled through 5 2/3 perfect innings in his lone start. In that outing, he racked up 10 punch outs without walking anyone and without giving up a single hit. While the competition that De Leon is bound to face in the season is probably much better than that of Team Israel, the results were still encouraging. Even more eye-opening than that outcome was the quality of pitches that De Leon was featuring. Eno Sarris of The Athletic noted that the righty displayed the third-best Stuff+ among starters in the WBC. “Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch,” as stated in Fangraphs’ definition of the metric. “Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.” If De Leon and the Twins are amenable to seeing how that stuff plays in a relief role, the righty could be among the first arms to be called up in-season. Maybe he fits the Jharel Cotton mold of 2022, where he is called to mop up some innings if a starter has to leave a game early. Perhaps he gets the ball in extra innings and is tasked with finishing it out. No matter the role, if De Leon can maintain this quality of stuff in his pitches, he could get ample opportunities at the big league level. Oliver Ortega The Twins claimed Oliver Ortega off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels in early-January, and were enticed by his mix of hard fastball and big slider. Does that sound familiar? The club has shown an affinity for this kind of repertoire in their pitchers (especially relievers) over the last few years. From Jax, to Alcala, to Matt Wisler, this front office just can’t get enough of this pitch combo. Ortega was outrighted off of the 40-man roster later in the off-season, and has two option years remaining. This could play into his favor as a potential taxi squad regular, or someone that can shuffle between the major leagues and Triple-A multiple times over the next two seasons. Remember how often the Twins would have someone walk the plank to eat up innings before being switched out with a fresh arm immediately after the game? Keep that formula in mind when trying to map out an opening for Ortega. What will determine the lean right-hander’s ability to establish himself into an MLB role is his sky-high walk tendencies. Yes, the Twins love his upper-90s heat and slurvy breaking pitch, but this repertoire only goes as far as his ability to get swinging misses and avoid walks. Last season, he had an unsightly 12.2% walk rate and a good-not-great 11.1% swinging strike rate. His strength is in his strikeout rate, which was fantastic in the upper-minors over the last two seasons (33% in Double-A, 24% in Triple-A). He started to show that in the big leagues with the Angels last season when he struck out 22.3% of batters faced in 34 innings pitched. If Ortega can rein in those walks while continuing to develop swing-and-miss stuff, he could claim a low-leverage role in the major-league bullpen. Cody Laweryson A 14th-round draft pick in 2019, Laweryson is often overlooked when scouring the Twins’ depth chart. He was limited to 45 innings pitched in 2019, missed all of 2020 due to the pandemic and then underwhelmed in 2021 at High-A where he had a 4.91 ERA in 59 innings across 14 starts. It should be noted that a .340 batting average on balls in play likely inflated that shaky earned run total. Still, after a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, the Twins had faith that he would straighten things out in 2022, and he did just that. Cody Laweryson made 16 appearances at High-A to start the 2022 campaign, 14 of which were out of the bullpen. He had a much more encouraging 2.57 ERA this time around, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and a serviceable 8% walk rate. He got promoted to Double-A midway through the season, and continued to flourish with similar results. At Wichita, he held opposing hitters to a .196 batting average and had a promising 10.4 K/9. His swinging-strike rate dipped from 15.2% to 14.1%, but so did his walk rate (8.4% to 6.7%). The Twins don’t seem in a rush to give up on Laweryson as a starter. He made eight starts at Double-A in the second half of last season, and finally showed some success in that role. However, he is entering his age-25 season and is well down the list of starting pitcher options on the Twins’ depth chart. It’s going to be hard to find starting opportunities at the Triple-A level with prospects such as Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, and maybe Cole Sands all occupying spots in the Saints’ rotation. Not to mention, there’s a slew of veterans on minor-league deals that are vying for opportunities. Maybe a permanent move to the bullpen can yield more solid results from Laweryson while creating a clearer path to the major leagues. What do you think? Can any of these three establish themselves in the Twins' bullpen? Who are some other lesser-known arms that could claim a relief role for themselves in 2023? View full article

Carlos Correa turned on the afterburners in the last 50 games of the 2022 season. With some help from hitting coach David Popkins, the star slugger cleaned up his swing with some notable, subtle changes. Can the Twins’ shortstop carry that success over into his 2023 campaign? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Going into the off-season, it was clear that retaining Carlos Correa was the main objective for the Twins. While countless injuries forced the team into a crash-landing in September, their star shortstop’s engine was still firing on all cylinders. Sadly, his incredible performance over the season’s final 50 games went relatively unnoticed by most, as the cabin became too filled with the smoke of another lost season. With Correa settled back into a corner locker in the Twins’ clubhouse, the hope is that the subtle changes to his swing that propelled him through the end of a tumultuous season will once again prove successful. Perhaps he can even soar to new heights with continued tutelage from hitting coach David Popkins. That’s going to be a tall task, as Correa was one of the best hitters in the game through the homestretch of 2022. So how good was he, and how reasonable is it to expect even more from C4 in 2023? The last 50 games of Correa’s 2022 campaign were indeed phenomenal. His season as a whole was certainly above average, but this final stretch was the type of performance that many imagined when he was inked to a $35.1 million guarantee in March. From the start of the season until August 11th, Correa had a strong slash line of .264/.340/.427, good for 21% better than league average. That’s roughly borderline all star level play, but notably worse than his career 130 wRC+. HIs incredible play from August 12th through the end of the season was the type of stretch that leads contending teams to deep playoff runs. In that span, he had an other-worldly .339/.411/.536 (172 wRC+) in 50 games played, despite his teams’ brutal record. Twins Daily’s own Parker Hageman went to Twitter to break down some of the subtle adjustments that Correa made with Popkins’ direction. Most notably, the slugger adjusted his swing delivery and posture in an effort to clean up his bat path. Dan Hayes of The Athletic also wrote in great detail about the change in approach that Correa was undertaking through the season. “The goal was to incorporate natural movements from when Correa previously experienced success,” Hayes wrote. “Popkins said the first change was to create a more direct path to the ball. Next, they worked on reducing the amount of loop in Correa’s barrel.” As Hageman noted in his analysis, having a cleaner bat path helped Correa to do more damage when hitting high-velocity pitches later in the season. In fact, there were very few players in baseball that did this better than the star slugger in September. According to Inside Edge, Correa batted .545 with a whopping .955 slugging percentage on pitches 95 MPH or greater in the last 30 days of the season. That was best in baseball among qualified hitters. These adjustments that Carlos Correa made also helped him to lower his strikeout rate that had skyrocketed over the first month of the season. In April, he had a strikeout in 29.6% of his at-bats. By September, that rate fell back down to his career norm, which is roughly 20.3%. In the last month of the season. In that timeframe, Correa thrived when the count reached two strikes. He batted .286 when he had two strikes against him and he had a .529 slugging percentage, good for second-best in all of baseball. With a more traditional off-season that wasn’t limited by a leaguewide lockout, the hope is that these changes to Correa’s swing will stick and that he will continue to develop alongside David Popkins . Not only that, but the coach’s success working with Correa will hopefully continue to increase his reputation throughout the organization as he heads into his second year with the club. “Midway through last season, Correa began encouraging teammates to work with Popkins, providing a young coach with much-needed credibility in the clubhouse.” Hayes wrote. If the rest of the team can adjust and improve as Correa did in 2022, while maintaining good health in the homestretch, the Twins will avoid the catastrophe that fans suffered through last September. With Popkins flying the plane and Correa sitting in as a co-pilot, the club can avoid a crash-landing and hopefully touch down on the 2023 postseason landing strip. What do you think? Will Correa be able to carry these subtle changes to his swing into the 2023 season? Let us know in the comment section below. View full article

The Twins made a much-needed trade for an all-star reliever at last year’s deadline, but what they got fell short of expectations. Can Jorge López rediscover what made him so successful in the first half of last year? Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports In late-July of last year, the Twins were still grasping to a small division lead, with more holes seemingly appearing by the day. One of the biggest gaps in their roster at the time fell between superstar relief ace Jhoan Duran – and pretty much anyone else in their relief corps. Sure, Griffin Jax had built some trust equity from the skipper, as did Caleb Thielbar. They weren’t all-star caliber players, but they could be trusted to pass the baton in a relay that led to Duran. The team then went out and made a trade for the star-level arm that was desperately needed to help bridge the gap. Enter Jorge López. The former Baltimore Oriole was having a career-year when the Twins acquired him in exchange for pitching prospects Cade Povich and Yennier Cano. He had a fantastic 1.68 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 60% ground ball rate, leading to his first all star nod. His fastballs ran hot, with an average of 97.4 MPH for his four-seamer and 98 MPH on his preferred sinker, and he paired them with a slew of secondary offerings that have carried over from his time as a starting pitcher. His curveball, in particular, was a real weapon, with his slider and changeup serving as additional tricks up his sleeve. So Lopez had big strikeout numbers, got plenty of ground ball outs, and had two and a half years of club control at the time of the trade. What’s not to like? While he wasn’t a train wreck with his new team, Lopez’s first two months as a Twin were disappointing based on the expectations that were set when the team acquired him. In that time, he had a 4.37 ERA across 23 innings pitched, due in large part to a walk rate (13.7%) that nearly eclipsed his strikeout percentage (17.6%). Lopez’s sinker was his bread and butter in the first few months of the season, but its success trailed off considerably once the calendar flipped to July. In the first three months of the 2022 campaign, he allowed just 11 hits on that offering, but in the second half that figure nearly doubled to 20 (six of which went for extra bases). This pitch wasn’t just his most used offering, but it was a notable choice when deciding what to use as a “put away” pitch – or what he used in an effort to get a strikeout once he got to two strikes in the count. That rate for his sinker went from about 16.5% in April and May, all the way up to 29.6% in June and July, but then it plummeted to just 4.5% by the time September rolled around. That’s a big kick to his confidence in his best pitch. That "put away" pitch selection is vital to Lopez’s end results because he’s one of the best at getting to that point when facing opposing hitters, especially those that are right-handed. Last year, he was able to get at least two strikes in the first three pitches against 73% of the right-handed hitters that he faced, according to Inside Edge. Obviously that can be a huge advantage in the grand scheme of things, and indeed it was for the first half of last season when he had a 28.7% strikeout rate. But for whatever reason -- whether it was trying a different pitch mix, or his sinker lost some zip, or he wasn’t locating his pitches as well, or hitters were merely catching up to him -- he was unable to tap into that put away stuff in the second half. That could come across as a grim outlook going forward. Baseball fans suffer from perpetual recency bias, and Lopez’s most recent month of work was uninspiring. However, the Twins don’t need him to be the monster that he was for Baltimore in the first few months of last season. They just need him to be in the same mix as Jax and Thielbar, which is probably somewhere between the two poles that Lopez set last season. The Twins need him to be in that group of guys that can be trusted in a relay that leads to Duran taking on the highest-leverage situations at or near the end of the game. But what do you think? Can Jorge Lopez regain some of his value that the team had in mind when they traded for him? Or did the club get duped into buying-high on an inconsistent arm? Let us know your thoughts and expectations in the comments below. View full article

In 2020, Kenta Maeda ran the game and had the whole world talkin'. After a brilliant stretch of 11 starts, he was crowned the king of the Twins rotation. But Tommy John surgery has kept him out of action for nearly 18 months. What are reasonable expectations for King Kenta as he makes his triumphant return to his kingdom? Image courtesy of William Parmeter While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. Or so we thought. Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king? Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery. ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023. That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate. Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. View full article

The Twins bullpen is mostly set for the start of the upcoming season. Should they roll with what they have, or make one last addition by bringing home a native Minnesotan for that last spot? Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports The Twins find themselves in a heated hand of five-card draw. They like most of the cards they’re holding in the bullpen, but they could take a chance on trading in their last piece for a fresh one in the hopes that it complements their hand better. There are plenty of face cards in this hand, including relief ace Jhoan Duran, veteran king Caleb Thielbar, and a young jack, or should I say Jax, rather. Other members in their relief corps such as Jorge Lopez or Jorge Alcala could find themselves in that high-value card class, but the jury is still out on if they can be counted on to be healthy and/or effective. Still, the club could be looking to add one last card in the hopes of landing a royal flush. But is it really worth it to go for a wild card, or should the Twins stick with the hand they were dealt? Imperfect analogies aside, the club has been tied by Darren Wolfson to veteran southpaw Brad Hand, who is coming off of a relatively successful, if uninspiring, 2022 season. Right now, the last member of the Twins’ bullpen is projected to be righty Trevor Megill, who showcased a blazing fastball in the last few months of the season but left much to be desired overall. Adding Hand to the mix carries a possibility that he continues to outshine his peripherals, as has been the case since he transitioned to a full-time reliever in 2016. Even just last season, he had a fantastic 2.80 ERA despite having a 4.40 xERA. The expected figure is due in large part to his unspectacular 1.65 K/BB rate, an unexciting 7.3% swinging strike rate, and diminishing values on his fastball as the season wore on. But aside from the discouraging numbers under the hood, he managed to throw 45 innings of mostly unproblematic baseball in 2022. So would the Twins be wise to bring him on board with an inexpensive one-year deal? Let’s start with the upside of such a deal. As the last few years have shown us, you can never have too many options in a relief corps. Signing Hand likely moves Megill down to Triple-A for the time being, but the Twins wouldn’t be required to drop anyone from their 40-man roster. Both Chris Paddack and Royce Lewis are now eligible to be moved to the 60-day injured list, which would remove them from the 40-man roster until reinstatement. If Hand produces as expected, he’d be the third left-handed pitcher in the projected bullpen depth chart. Thielbar is a lock as a high-leverage option, and Jovani Moran is bound to get more time after impressing in 41 MLB innings last year. Sure, Moran has shown more success against right-handed batters thanks to his big changeup, but he’s had success against fellow lefties, as well (12 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 vs. LHH). So overall, it's not too much of a gamble just to have Hand aboard. The downside of such a move isn’t that someone like Megill misses MLB opportunities. There are bound to be multiple injuries throughout the season and surely the big-league club will have to tap into the depth stashed in St. Paul. The downside comes from the Twins’ recent track record of giving established MLB veterans too long of a leash when their performance underwhelms. From J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker, to Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith, sometimes it feels as if the decision-makers are more concerned with hurting their reputation as a veteran-friendly organization rather than the results on the field. Granted, sometimes that patience pays off. In 2021, Alex Colome had a brutal 8.31 ERA in April before turning things around (3.51 ERA from May 1st through the end of the season). But in that first month, the club was unable to remove him from high-leverage situations, whether due to a lack of MLB-quality replacements or an excess of confidence in Colome’s projected regression to the mean. That lack of action regarding the veteran (among other things) essentially derailed their hopes of contention by May. After two consecutive losing seasons, the Twins can’t afford to have that same mindset with someone like Hand, especially given the fact that he would likely be their sole addition to the bullpen. Their efforts might be better suited to give their current cards more playing time and reevaluate their needs down the line. Maybe Kenta Maeda eventually transitions to the bullpen as he approaches an inning limit in his first season post-Tommy John surgery. Perhaps someone like Megill or Ronny Henriquez emerges as a relief weapon. Maybe one of their back-end starters such as Josh Winder or Bailey Ober gets a boost from moving to a relief role. The team is bound to have a handful of options in 2023, and they need to put their chips behind those who will find the most success rather than trying to squeeze out as much value as they can from an aging veteran. But what do you think? Are the Twins better off sticking with the hand that they were dealt, or should they try for the Hand that's still available on the free agent market? Let us know what you think in the comments below. View full article