August J Gloop

Plenty of payroll headroom to add 3 relievers at around 7-8 each. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Michael Fulmer.

Outfielders get hurt at a much lower rate than infielders. What's more likely is that a young man too eager to get on with his career exaggerated the progress of his rehab and was still vulnerable to reinjury while he was playing. (Or perhaps his first surgery was not sufficient). Lewis is fast and seems to have the bat speed to be a high OPS kind of player. He projects to be a rangy outfielder with a strong, accurate arm. It would help the Twins to get another long-term high end bat in the lineup. Moving him to a Left/Center/DH rotation with Bux and LHH LF could keep everybody fresh. What my point on Lee is that his projected hit tool is 100% valuable right now, but it's just as likely to not be that in actual practice. If good pitchers are available for him, do it. Not shop him to anyone for anything. If I say Alacantarra and Kim N says Lee, I'm still talking is my point. If he gets to AA and ops 1.002, I say good for you, kid and live with it. Hopefully Alcantarra is winning another cy young.

I'm not trying to say he sucks. I'm trying to say that like most of 'the best college hitters in the draft' he will not likely be a great MLB hitter, just an ok/good one. But right now if he can be the center piece of a trade for a controllable top flight starter, it must be done. If he was gonna stick at short, Id say keep him, but he ain't.

Lee strikes me as a perfect trade candidate. Get him out while he still seems like a prospect who could center in a top level pitching trade. I'm pretty sure AA will quickly disabuse folks of that notion. He's likely to be a serviceable major leaguer, but not one you'd trade for Sandy Alcantara.

This is my mad science idea around all this. The Twins have been doing all sorts of things that can't be done lately. I start with a package that gets Alacantara and Luzardo. That's going to be costly in terms of prospects. I'm guessing Lee is right at the tippy top of that, but OK. So we'll say: Lee, Arraez and let's just say Balazovic for starters. I'm sure that there might need to be a little more added to that spicy deal, but they have enuff. It can work. Then we talk to the Tigers about Javy Baez. Yeah I know, stick with me here. Max goes to Detroit to do with as they please. Polo heads over to first as now the Twins have the best up the middle defense in maybe the whole league. I could consider Polo at 3rd but throwing has always been his downfall. He's got great hands. The Twins can eat the rest of that kinda silly deal and get most of it back in great defense and once in a while things like this will happen: (I could be convinced that Gleyber is a more responsible choice but If you can put Baez's exemplary D and Chaos at the bottom of the lineup you do.) Now then, we work with the starters to figure out a sensible rotation through the rotation. Obviously, Sandy, Joe, Luzardo and Sonny are are all guaranteed starters, but the rest of the injury guys and such can do a load sharing deal. That puts two of Mahle, Ober and Maeda ready to step in for 2-3 innings pretty much any day. The top heavy bullpen gets free agents Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin and Michael Fullmer. The payroll gets north of 180. If you're wondering? Yes, I have been playing OOTP this week.

The next player's union fight should be about getting relievers out of this mess. Bednar is too good for the Pirates to trade, but the arbitration system keeps them paid low. This continues the cycle of bad teams keeping a player rotting in their 'pen. Like it should be against the rules for teams not-contending to keep good relievers. At a minimum they should have to pay them double.

This is such a good deal for everyone. CC gets piles of cash up front, while he's good great. He bets on himself to stay healthy and productive. The threshold for being 'productive' on His Team (he's at least Co-Face, now) evolves in a sensible way that will likely match his body. As he slows and loses the step needed for short, he can bulk up a bit more and focus on power and go from 25 to 35 HRs a season playing a corner or DH. It's actually pretty rare to see such a good deal for both sides in this game.

Trevor Bauer is a dangerous sexual abuser who has the armor of being publicly let off. His behavior toward women will get worse. All female staff will need to be afraid to be alone with him. That includes two of the writers who cover the team. He also brings with him a side order of bigotry in the forms of transphobia and racism. He's not a 'raconteur' or 'difficult clubhouse personality'. He's one of those guys that nearly everyone around him hates. He was tolerated because our patriarchal system says that 'boys will be boys' and if there are results we look the other way. And even when those behaviors are clearly defined for us, many will contort themselves into pretzels to find technicalities of how what he did was 'ok' or 'not criminal'. His presence on the Twins would be 100% fatal to my fandom of the team. I'd be heartbroken, but I would stop following them immediately, until such a time that everyone involved in bringing him to Minnesota was gone. I hope I never have to say his name again.

Sure if we want to play that game we also need to acknowledge the 'female judge's'** track record of publishing papers suggesting the real problem with abuse are the victim advocates. Or her history of reuniting children with their abusive fathers even after they fled. In fact the entire basis of her decision to not award the restraining order seemed to be was that once consent is granted, it couldn't be taken away. Including when she had been rendered unconcious. That judge is Dianna Gould-Saltman https://ballotpedia.org/Dianna_Gould-Saltman As you can see she has not faced a general election in over 13 years. Her 'thoughts' about victim advocacy and therapists: https://www.lyngreenbergphd.com/2022/Division_43_Handouts/7. Gould-Saltman, 2021.pdf Here she is advocating a 14 year old be forced to visit her father https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/can-my-14-year-old-daughter-say-no-to-her-father-s-57328.html#! Here is a twitter account mentioning a decicison of hers this winter: https://twitter.com/unmaskthenarc/status/1606878880471683072 All in all this judge isn't much concerned about putting women in harms way around men. Bauer's representation did good to get the restraining order decision in front of this judge. They knew the DA was the kind of weasel who wold use the dismissal of it as a way to avoid trying to prosecute a high profile case that would 100% end up at appeal. **It's always a bad look when one tries to defend the patriarchy by pointing out that a woman in moderate power acted to protect it.

Let's not forget the most important part. He's gotten away with sexual violence publicly 3 times now. He will do it again. Any team that signs him will be 100% on the hook for whatever this serial abuser does next. And his defense next time he beats a woman will be that she consented to it by being on the planet with him. And a bunch of creep-os will ask what the woman was wearing or did she make flirty overtures to him. We do not need this man in Minnesota. I mean the state generally, but that would cover the team, too.

Exactly. I think it should speak volumes that there's an (I assume) male identifying person in this thread who asterisked out the word crap, but is forgiving of non-consensual sexual activity. Women see this kind of inconsistency in their every day lives and don't want baseball to wave a huge sign in their face that for the men in their lives winning is more important than their safety. It would be a PR disaster if he were a guaranteed CY-Young candidate, let alone the marginal upgrade he is likely to be 3 years after his last season of good play. As to the bananas stuff about he didn't do a crime because he didn't get charged, wut? Is it really your position that 3 women and at least two journalists made stuff up? Do some reading on how hard it is to convict obvious rapists before you cling to the idea that something as thoroughly vetted as this situation is a simple 'he said / she said'.

He did that to tell his manager to get stuffed, though. Not to celebrate anything, but to indicate his manager was a moron for coming to get him. That's exactly the opposite of celebrating a home run.

Athletes are a funny bunch. Insane confidence, but really bad at math and downright cowardly when it comes to guaranteed money. I know that 315 >>>>> 285 but when you look at simple to calculate things like inflation and compound interest, the value CC tossed aside in the early years of the SFG / Mets deals vs the Twins deal is crazy. If CC had made an basically risk free 'gamble' on himself and played the 70 mil out through 24, he'd be hitting the market before his age 30 season. This while 3-4 Megadeals probably still look good and are still en vogue. He'd have literally no trouble getting the same 10 year deal the Twins offered for a total of 390 Million dollars for the same 12 years he was signing up for with the Mets. With a much bigger chunk up front. Meanwhile He's got such a better shot at being a 'face of baseball' in a good way playing for the Twins. The only way he stands out in NYM / SFG is if his deal goes to hell. (Irony). Sure the other deal was Guaranteed, but what kind of risk does he really have? Was he leveraged to a third world dictator? If he craps out in the next two years, he's only earned 105 Million for two years of work, and never has to worry. These cats get so much bad advice. It's like they all hire financial advisors from their agents offices. Or they sign deals where their agents get paid in the first year of the contract or something (cuz money now is worth like 20% more today than it is in 10 years)

Correa's leg is clearly a lot worse than he wants people to know. He's bombed two physicals and wouldn't let the Twins look at the Giants finding before making any further offers. At this point they should let the Mets have him. Seems likely this will be one of the worst offseasons in MLB history as far as value per dollar spent. Rodon? Bust. Xander? 2-3 good years, then fizzle. Turner, will be OK throughout, lots of sexy slides, but never really worth the contract. Swanson? Jason Heyward will look good in comparison. Correa might still end up being the best value, if someone can get him to hop back on those short deals.

Gallo hasn't ever compounded his slump issues by being out of shape, or gaining 30+ pounds on a rehab assignment. Even last year while hitting 160, Gallo still put 22 over the fence. Miguel last year was so devastated, he couldn't even get around on crap fastballs. He was so much worse than Gallo last year. He'll get a ML invite to a training camp somewhere. My money is on Tampa or Oakland.

Sign him up with an understanding he might be working on his command in St Paul. 2-3 years with a club option.

The rotation is solid. Add some higher end options to the pen and pitching should be A-OK. It's not sexy but it will get the job done.

If the Twins sign Bauer I will literally never watch them until every single person who signed off on it is gone from the organization. I will not watch the games the Twins play against any team that rosters him, even when he's not playing.

Cohen has played the Correa/Boras team like a fiddle. The fact that Correa didn't immediately fire Boras when the SFG debacle took place indicates that CC knew there could be trouble in the physical. I'm sure the Giants getting cold feet was kinodof a shock, but the quick signing of another Boras injury risk also implies that SFG didn't exactly piss Boras off with their abandon ship moment (unless that was their penance). Cohen being a true billionaire has no qualms getting in the mud on these deals, nor does he really give a rip if Correa is even good for the Mets. Correa on that team like driving a Bentley. He won't win them more games, but he'll get them more attention. He'll sell the new image of the Mets as the spend anything to win everything hotness. At the same time, why waste any dollars you don't need to. Apparently Correa is so enamored with playing in NY that he'll abandon his position and now his self respect to sign whatever deal the Mets eventually make him take. I'm sure that 250-300 Million will buy a lot of self respect back, but in the clubhouse of High AAV, he's going to look like a wiener. It will even be worse next year when the players du jour are at 3B and Crazy Cohen decides he wants one (or both) of them. Correa will be a 28/per super utility guy. It also really puts water on any idea that Correa loved it here. If he'd had such a great time here, he'd be negotiating with the Twins to get closer to that guarantee, rather than continuing to be kicked around by Cohen, who has literally all the leverage, since Correa shows no sign of being willing to take another tack.

I wonder if the fact that all 30 of those teams are ignoring this mystery slugger, we might make a conclusion there?

Tyler Mahle is only controversial if you take for granted that he definitely was going to throw 16.1 injured innings. If anything, they should be bummed for not pushing harder to get Mahle at the same time as Grey. If The twins had received the innings thrown in Cincinnati, they likely win the division. I know he only rated a 2 win pitcher, but that's another failing of the WAR system. The replacement is hypothetical. Take Mahle's 19 pre deadline starts in stead of whatever archer was doing, and we get a much better second half bullpen. Easily worth closer to 5 wins to the twins.

Let's not forget that gate isn't only what pays player salaries. Player salaries are paid as much by merch and appearances. The Central divisions can't make as much on those either. Folks are acting like Steve Cohen is gonna pay all those salaries out of his couch cushions. He's mega rich, so he's not worried if the investment fails or takes a couple years to pay off. But he's already seen the projections, and they have nothing to do with winning. Winning and losing is too fungible for businesses to project. People buying hot merch and wanting to smell like Dior, that's projectable. (Now I think the Mets are wrong and if they don't win it will get really expensive around there). Fans take the whole moneyball thing way too literally. It only really applies at the bottom of the scale. You can't buy infinite wins. Some of the Dodgers success last year was still down to luck. (And heck they underperformed their pythag record by like 6 wins) Most of the central division teams are stuck in a donut hole where they can't afford to buy the fancy wins, but the cheap wins are actually repellant to fans. Gallo and Bell are great examples of that. They are both players who are definite upgrades over what was there, at "sensible" prices. But because they aren't Arson Judge or Carlos Dior, they're some how trash and the fan base rejects it as penny pinching. ETA - I don't think billionaires should exist, but it's probably a little silly to ask them to run their MLB business like a non-profit. Which of course would probably create a much different league, if MLB couldn't keep any of their profits.

If I'm mad at Falvine it's because they so clearly played along with Boras and Correa's gambit. I don't like that they got into the shady deals of MrB. I'm sure it has a lot to do with building bridges toward a future where they might get to keep Lewis. They signed Correa to that pillowy pillow contract at the behest of Boras. They allowed Correa to walk around acting like some sort of leader, and then pretended to try to bring him back. They even did a bunch of interviews talking about it. Joey Gallo is proof why you don't negotiate with criminals. Once Boras knew they would step to his finger snaps, he sent over another rebuild candidate. Watch Gallo play well for the twins and then sign a 5 year 220 mil deal for the mets next year to pinch hit. But their non Boras stuff has been pretty solid.

He'll be back at St Paul.

Mike Zunino? He of the career WRC+ of 88? I suppose technically it is an improvement over the 81/42 That Maile and Meadows put up last year. What I think people really don't grasp about 22 for the twins is that even with all the trash they ate in the injury department, they went 6-13 despite having a zero run differential against Cleveland. In order for that to happen, CLE had to have won several one run games (or i suppose the wins could have had one 24 run victory in there). That means the difference between the Twins and CLE last year was roughly 7 innings. Flip the result and the twins are tied with CLE. Both teams would have had 85 wins and the Twins would have won the division. CLE had 4 wins against the twins that were >1 and one of those was a walk off homer, so it's really a 1 run win as well. That means MIN went 1-9 in 1 run games against CLE. Twins record in 1 run games overall? 20-28. They had hideous luck against CLE last year. (CLE went 28-17). Basically you expect to be around 500 in 1 run games, and apart from the weird match up both teams were close to it. Move the 1-9 to 5-5 and the twins are 24-24 (and coincidently also 82-80 overall). CLE still sits at 24-21 (86-76), a little over 500 is not that strange. Clase pitched in 10 games against the twins and gave up 1 run. 9 games against KC? 7 runs. So much weird luck. CLE going to October was powered almost exclusively by the Twins bad luck against them. Of course, CLE beat NYY in the post, so for the traumatized fan, that means they're a dynasty killer. When really it was the sudden lack of juiced ball that knocked the yankees out.