August J Gloop

I agree that PIT should be forced to trade Bednar. But I dunno they should be punished for ever meeting him.

Because shortstop prospects are like having an everything prospect. They can play D just about anywhere on the diamond if they can hit. You'd make your whole rookie league team up of shortstops from D1 colleges if you could.

I still think there is a legit shot at another high impact starter either in the Rotation or LF. We recently heard that Josh Winder on his own was enough to tempt the Royals to send over 1.9 Win MATaylor. What about a Package that starts with Winder, Kepler and Kiriloff for Bryan Reynolds. I assume the Twins would need to put more in, but Kiriloff might have more value to a rebuilding Pirates team since he's a local kid. Reynolds is arb eligible through 26 so the Twins should be comfortable giving up prospect value. Winder and Kep would be flips for them, with one or both hopefully playing well enough to be turned into prospects of their own at the 23 deadline. I know the Pirates aren't that motivated to move Reynolds, but they should be easy enough to get there, since he's made it clear he'd like to get out and without trading all their other prospects, the Bucs aren't getting to competence before Reynold's walk year anyway. As to the starter I am still really digging the idea of pushing a bunch of prospect chips in on Shane McClanahan. He's got big time team control, so why would the Rays move him? Because they missed the Rays window of savings. He's gonna get paid in arbitration and clearly has said no thank you to the Rays MO of team friendly prearb contracts. This would be instead of the Reynolds deal, so you'd probably see Winder, Kiriloff or Larnach, Gordon and one top prospect (Or Max and two prospects instead of K/L/G. As to why people are not fans of the May for two prospects? They could have signed may for just money and instead let Oakland do it only to send players of any value for him? Plus I'm guessing Cleveland would probably trade Clase straight up for Ober. He's a projectable MLB starting pitcher. No way a relief bust like May is getting Ober.

Those batting helmets are magic. LOVEx3. I don't like large white sections on hats (grimy), but I could totally see a version of the home cap that has a red bucket, blue bill and some white blue TC. The M is a little strange, but I wonder if the big issue is that the star is red. If instead the M were red and the star were white it might seem more like the north star it's representing. The actual typography work on the M is pretty cool and not really at all like the Marlins M. Maybe they should have figured out a way to put the M inside the star in some way. or in front of it? I guess I'm not as diametrically opposed to it as others. I bet it also looks better in 3D. But considering the M is the only thing that's getting much traction against the rebrand, they did a good job.

Thinking more about it, the Wolves, Wild and Loons could hop in with the Twins to launch some sort of Midwest Sports Channel (so original) that can carry their games. They can use the bankruptcy proceedings to get out of their contract. Then they can offer that as some sort of streaming package. They could run more high school stuff and keep the Due Norths of the world going. From a team standpoint they see revenue from broadcast. For the combined teams are there 2.5 million people in the greater midwest who would pay 10 bucks a month to have such a streaming service? That's roughly speaking where they would have to sit to get the same cash back. These MLB teams should just use this opportunity to rethink what broadcasting their games actually is. It's not revenue. It's advertising the live products. The Game is a product. The Jerseys are products. If they built the relationships with the fans, they'd sell out every game because people would want to be there. Right now it's actively hard and expensive and wasteful to watch the team. The message to most casual fans is: if you don't commit you should get out. You can imagine what most of those folks do. If instead, they considered the free transmission of the game as a standard practice with basic monetization of the traditional ad segments to cover production, they'd be selling so many more tickets, they'd get that 40 Million back. Currently TF sits half full. filling it back up every night at a reduced ticket price gets them there easily. And considering they'd be free on youtube and MLB's platform, they'd get tons of eyeballs, and likely actually be making money on those ads within a couple seasons. Heck 8 Million people watch celebrities eat spicy wings every week. I'm guessing free major league baseball would have no problem building a loyal audience.

AppleTV+ (or another streamer) would be the best spot for RSNs. I like Apple because of the high quality streaming. They could upgrade the broadcasts to match the gorgeous ATV games. Apple could use the RSN thing as a regional subscriber keep. (Folks are less likely to cancel when there's consistently new programming even when it's not specifically of interest to them.) It would 'free' to get your RSN with an ATV+ plus sub. They could then target new fans on the sub with short vids and other fun things, which would create more folks who just stay subscribed to watch this thing they like more than they used to cuz Jose Miranda is so funny (for example). Hulu or just plain Youtube probably make a lot of sense, too.

But every blown save against the Guardians last year lead to a loss. All the projection models I've seen have Twins and Guards basically even. right at 83.xx wins. That means the division will likely come down to the head to head stuff. My gut tells me the projections are quite simply wrong, though. Considering they have the Twins as having less of an offence than CLE (doubt it) but a better pitching staff (say what now?). All that to say that you aren't being overly optimistic. It's very likely they will do quite well in the division. And they actually have ability (and the motivation of Correa's contract) to keep going in at the deadline. Unlike Cleveland who is literally bumping their head on their payroll ceiling by adding Josh Bell.

Odds are it's cuz he wants too much money and most of the teams he'd want to play for don't have a lot of spots. He'll sign up soon with the twins for a little less or the Pirates for a little more and the expectation of being flipped again.

But he (probably? hopefully?) is a much better hitter. And he's still a positive value defender, so he's got bigger upside than Max at this point.

I think that Ober might be a part of a trade that interests the Rays, but they want offense over there. Deffo gotta get them a couple OPS+ > 100 potential bats. (ETA affordable bats. It is the Rays we're talking about)

I guess I'm puzzled at your new metric here. Are you saying that each of our outfielders will generate nearly 1 run every game? That seems pretty sweet to me. Bat Gallo leadoff so he gets 5.5 PA per game and boom. I'm wondering if this run generated stat is double counting the RBI and run that a player creates when hitting a home run. Also it seems like it *might* not be the best way to measure actual productivity, since outside HRs, run generation requires outside participation.

Saw the rumor/news that Tampa is still on the hunt for offense. I could see 2 of Kep, Gordon, & Larnach + HQ prospect (Lee, Salas) heading out for McClanahan or Springs. Tampa hasn't locked McClanahan up so he's about to get arb $$. That's usually when TB moves someone. He so good, though, they might deviate in his case. Springs seems like a fine fallback. I think Springs shorter track record could reduce the quality of prospect that TB might ask for. Since Tampa is looking for offense - I'd guess it to be Larnach + Gordon. Trev is a hitter and Gordo seems right up their alley with the positional flexibility. Or they could forgo the prospect all together and send Glasnow. His injury risk would be the Twins Problem, but the main reason he is gettable for less.

Ho-hum, just out here collecting gold gloves. And not silly ones, but actual great defense ones.

Another strong trade. I was comfortably uncomfortable with letting Winder go for MAT, so this is groovy.

I think you missed a huge one. His career babip is .257. Which is low, so he's an actual shift victim. But his babip in 2022 was .219. Added terrible luck. The strikeouts are an issue, but Gallo is a guy who's played his whole career under extreme shift pressure. A game where getting 100+ EV barrels were worse than a strikeout, since it would end up as a DP. Perhaps a change in D can change his game. He doesn't have to reduce his approach to a slap hitter, just reduce strikeouts by say 10% over last year. That would only be a 6% improvement over his career average. I do predict that the shift ban will last maybe two seasons with scores getting into the 20s routinely. But I could be wrong. I just think hitting is so far ahead of pitching. So much easier to simulate and practice.

Seems likely, since he hit 19 last year in a career worst season. But they're more likely to see Gordon at first in that scenario, since Gallo is better in the outfield than Gordon. No sense playing two guys at less than optimal positions when you can get away with one. And this assumes AK's wrist is still junk. Otherwise, he'll be at first and Gordo on the bench.

The object of the game is not getting on base. It's advancing baserunners to home. The whole 'he gets on base' scene in Moneyball is a well directed scene and effective for the movie's distillation of the philosophy. But look at it this way - Gallo has 1.8 x more PAs in his career to Arraez. Yet he's got 1.9 times as many total bases. Doesn't sound like much until you put it to scale. if G and A both have the same number of ABs, 500, for example A: 205 TB. G: 234. That's 20 runners closer to home over a season, many of whom are auto scored since such a high percentage of his hits are HRs. Obviously, Gallo would be better if his slug was matched with better contact. And Arraez would be better if his contact was matched with better slug. But then again, that's why the twins might be getting a deal on Gallo. Minor increases in contact will yield much bigger payoffs than hoping for more slug from Arraez. And they're basically paying only for defense. That's also why Arraez was 'only' worth a #2 and two prospects rather than somebody's ace.

The offseason has played out pretty good all things considered. The Twins sit at a projected 2.3 WAR behind CLE and 9 behind the Yankees for the top spot on the projection list. Some of that is just pessimistic projecting. Buxton will likely be more than 3, Kiriloff more than 1.3. Kenta won't stay in the rotation if he's heading to just 1.5. But for argument's sake let's say that the 42.8 is basically correct. What can realistically still be done? While I'm sure it's tempting to rehash all the free agents not signed, that ship has sailed. Let's talk what still can be. (Also WAR has to be our tool cuz otherwise what standard measure could we use? All of our eye tests are different.) Ground rules. You can't just cut someone and make up a new WAR value for a prospect replacement (no matter how good their numbers are in MiLB). We will cap any prospect WAR value at the rookie rates from last year. Jose Miranda was tops on the team with one. Only 11 in MLB posted more than 2. So as much as I believe in Lewis, Julien, Martin. We can't just plug them in and say Boom! 3 win seasons! So we have to cap them in our exercise at 1,5 which is more or less where Jose would have been if he'd played 150. Also, no getting studs for junk. Make a trade, make it real. BTV is kinda bogus but it will help. We can't trade Emilio and Brian Duensing (and prospects) for Julio Rodriguez. Here are the areas I think have room for improvement: DH, Bully and Rotation. They have a payroll of around 140 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QXhMYkMxJE1VJvZiNMS1X7OHPFNaIVUjd-m1ZBCzHL4/edit#gid=1520401900) It's fair to assume they can still add, but the upper limit is likely lower than we might like. That being said, they've got to have at least 25 to play with still. Here are my ideas. 1- Sign Fulmer, Matt Moore and Zach Britton for around a total of 15. Britton is a bit of a wild card but if he's healthy it could work out. We've had some good luck with his agent recently in structuring a good health dependent contract. That trio could conservatively net around 2.5 wins between them, and all for just money. (I could hear arguments for other LHP, but my point is there are 2.5 wins in the pen still in free agency). We wouldn't be bumping anyone projected to provide +WAR with the signs, either. So just value. Also this is a low point. All three of those dudes have put up 2.5 on their own from the pen over their careers. [45.3] 2 - Crack open that prospect piggy bank and get something done with the Rockies. They appeared excited to trade Brendan Rogers to the fish earlier. I think that means with the right combination of pitching and player prospects the Twins could get German Marquez and Rogers. They could offer Bailey Ober (only if Rogers included) in this deal as Marquez is signed reasonably for this year and a club option for the next. Rogers would still require a better prospect push, but the Arraez injection gave us the ability to flip Salas or to use Martin if his stock is still high enough. Now what does this actually do? It puts another quality starter in the rotation and allows for a 6 man setup to keep all the recovering dudes in the game for an extra inning. That also releases some of the pressure on the bully to add much more WAR (even if there is talent in the system to do it.) It also pairs C4 with a top fielding DP partner who can hit a little bit. Rather than the pretty OK fielding good hitter in Polo. What about Polo? Oh yeah, he's the Primary DH, but he rotates in to 2nd and 3rd along with Farmer to keep all legs fresh. That keeps his primary skill (hitting) in the lineup a lot while combatting his primary deficit (sore legs). These two players are projected to be worth 5 wins between them in Coors. Playing at Target will flip that a little, but while Rogers will come down, Marquez will go up. Almost there. And we didn't even add much salary. About 11 Mil all told. Right at our budget. [49.6] 3 - The last move. We're close to Max budget. We still need 2.9 wins to catch the Yankees. We've burned through almost all the prospect capital we're comfortable with. All the spots on the field are currently taken by MLB contracts. That's right. We're going to trade Max Kepler. To get where we need to go, the net result has to be almost 4 wins, since Max was projected to be worth 1.9 on his own. Well, so much of Max's Value is in him playing Right Field so well. Lucky for the Twins they signed his replacement already. Gallo is actually more valuable in right than left since his major plus is in his arm and range is good enough. Gallo projects to be a better value in right by .5 more win. That allows us Nick Gordon in Left where he can provide +value on both sides of the ball. he put up 1.5 last year in part time play so we'll figure he can do that again over a full year. Max's value is full on replaced with current staff. So who are we trading him for? Who knows. But a good reliever. Maybe Jalen Beeks in Tampa or Dylan Floro in Miami. Add .75 more wins to the pen over such edge guys as Coulombe or Megill. But the real value would be in freeing the roster spot for the rookie batter who would spot start and get hot to the tune of 1.5 wins. My gut says it's Julien in a super utility role. [52.1] OK I lied. They probably can't catch the Yankees in projected WAR, but they can get right up there with reasonable moves. Although I will say that Winder for Taylor thing is a good one they should do, too. He would be miles better than Celly in that role.

With the addition of Lopez, they've got enough to grind it out. If not for their bad luck against CLE (1-9 in 1 run games VS CLE) last year they'd have won the division. I don't see CLE getting worse, but they aren't really 'better' than the Twins. Outside their head to head matchups, the Twins were 72-71. CLE was 79-64. That includes the garbage time period from Sep 20th where they went 5-9 against such good opposition as KCR, DET and CHW. The Twins were ahead until the very end when the injuries to the rotation finally beat them. Plus, I don't see them going 0-10 against Houston and the Dodgers again. How fluky is that? even 3-7 leaves them at .500. Obviously, I wouldn't change any of it now, since they were too depleted to participate in the post season anyway. They literally did in two weeks what a bunch of franchises built their season around (tanking for the draft lottery) and got a big pick jump. Carlos re-signed and they deepened their pitching. All in all pretty good. The team is definitely better on paper than the squad they put out there last year, so yeah, I think they should win the division. That being said, no reason to pick them on a poll.

Assuming his wrist works, Kiriloff is far and away the better hitter. He has the skills to win a batting title, but with actual meat in it. Think 320/390/450 kind of guy. Twice as many homes and more doubles than luis. And no need to make provisos about his D at first. That potential alone is worth the risk of trading Arraez for pitching.

On the right contract he'd be a good add. But I think the Jo Adell idea floated elsewhere is the better play. Has a chance to blow the doors off on value, but won't be an expensive misfire if he flounders. Profar is a great example though of misunderstanding the OPS+ and WRC+ 100 scale. 100 Doesn't mean 'acceptable'. It means exactly league average. League average for MLB is top 10% (at least) of all baseball players on the planet. So a player who can OPS+ at 90 is 10% less than league average. It doesn't mean 'bad'. Profar is a slightly below average hitter, with lots of positional flexibility. I do question his rostering when he cant play center, though. I'm more into that potential match with KC on Michael A Taylor.

It definitely says a lot about PR's actual baseball knowledge when he credits Terry Ryan with the 2-8 scale. The rest of it is equally lazy.

So if the key to getting Trout on the team is Lewis you say no? Alcantarra? Ohtani? Lewis is a potentially good bat corner outfielder now, at least for the Twins. I hope he solidifies Left Field and becomes a star out there, but if someone came knockin with a great offer I'd have to say let's talk...

I enjoyed watching Arraez and am glad he had his career year with the Twins. I hope he has a solid MLB career hitting 275-320 with 15 doubles and 6 homers. While I'd have preferred a second pitcher, creating more depth to the MilB system opens up a path to trade elsewhere for more. Maybe now they feel more comfortable sending Brooks Lee for a tip-top starter. Perhaps another deal can even be made with Miami. They still need league average hitting. Might they like to try a whole new outfield of Gordon, Larnach and Kepler?

It's wild that in 2023 MLB and the cable industry still prefer that piracy is the best option for customers. Not even with just price, but features and access. I've had both MLB.TV and Cable and yet I still need two apps on my apple TV to access them. So daft.