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August J Gloop

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Everything posted by August J Gloop

  1. August J Gloop
    Because Joey Gallo has been worth 54 runs above average offensively for his career (including last year's -6). Last year was a total disaster for him, you bet. But his trend is generally very good. The projections have him listed as a 1.2-1.5 win player, but that's because they all seem to agree that he's suddenly not going to be able to field his position. If he puts in the D that's been the norm for his career, he creeps up to a 2.5 win player. If he hits like 2021 (ancient history) he's a 4 win player. That's the idea behind Gallo. You're free to disagree that any of it is actually possible, but now you know the idea behind it. Nick Gordon was worse in 2021 than Gallo was in 2022. Yet here we are in 2023 saying that Gordon is the guy we have to find room for. Never mind His projections for 2023 are worse than Gallo's. I wouldn't be surprised to see Gordon sent out to a team who has their own projections rating him higher. Maybe the Yankees would prefer Gordon to Kepler. Or he could be the ceremonial piece in the purchase of a prospect and high priced veteran like Sale and Marcello Mayer (hee hee).
  2. August J Gloop
    Arraez went to first because it was the last hope of a position he wasn't a butcher at. Turns out he did pretty good at it and has upended the depth chart a little. The reason I'm in favor of trading him this offseason is because it was after an up year. His value is going to careen all over because he has limited extra base potential and isn't fast. MLB RN has Arraez as the 9th best 1B, which is pretty good, but also means he wouldn't be THAT hard to replace, since to be a top 1B you need power. https://www.mlb.com/stories/mlb-now-s-top-10-first-basemen-right-now Just Lopez seems like it's not worth the trouble, though. Now imagine some sort of 3 team deal that involves Arraez, Kep and 4 or 5 of your favorite prospects not named Royce Lewis (cuz he's hurt and Correa likes him) or Miranda (Correa adopted him) heading off to Pittsburgh and Miami, returning to the Twins: Cabrera, Luzardo and Bryan Reynolds. That would be a trade worth sending Arraez out for. Luis is good. He's just the most replaceable good player on the roster. But no sense in replacing him with someone only as good or even a little less so.
  3. August J Gloop
    I feel like this whole 'trade starters off a 1st place ball club' discourse is a cousin to 'win a playoff game and we'll talk'. It's simply bananas to think that there is any scenario where a first place ball club trades any valuable pitcher. If a pitcher in that scenario gets traded it's from the DFA line. That seems likely to be Pagan's fate this year as some of these young fellas will be putting up good numbers at CHS. And in every offseason until Correa's 6 main years are up, the FO better be trading like they're a 1st place ball club. Prospects and vets who have been replaced out for quality vets who raise the floor and the ceiling. Right now, the projections have the twins at 84-86 wins. That might seem a little steep to the half empty crowd, but remember that the Pythag last year was 80-82. That was with negative contributions at catcher, corner OF and middle relief. Technically, two of those have been addressed with +WAR and the loss in WAR from losing Gio seems to be covered with full season Miranda and Farmer. Adding Lopez at the cost of Arraez is a wash or even negative, if you don't see Kiriloff or Wallner or whoever as able to cover that margin.
  4. August J Gloop
    Polanco and it's not close.
  5. August J Gloop
    I like it. Jo and Larnach can do a 50/50 until Lewis comes back.
  6. August J Gloop
    And we've settled onto why it's best to trade him and let someone else deal with that instability. Unfortunately also why it will take more than him to get a big return.
  7. August J Gloop
    I mean Arraez is only 25. But I understand my word choice has been confusing. We'll say that Arraez has potential to be a lot better.
  8. August J Gloop
    1. Batting titles are dum. They don't really measure much other than you got to first base a lot. At a minimum the "batting title" should be OPS. Heck it's a much bigger number anyway! 2. Arraez is not Tony Gwynn by any measure other than both were/are charismatic, athletically challenged guys who could put the bat to the ball. Tony struck out half as much over his whole career and even though he was known as a 'singles hitter' has a bunch more ISO than Luis. Arraez is the perfect headliner in a trade because you're trading the hope he could maybe if things go right be almost someone you could mention in the same breath as Tony Gwynn. There's value in possibility. Maybe even 6+ years of controlable pitching (Luzardo and Cabrera, plz). Replace Lewis with Arraez and you might be on to something. Most likely, the Fish would like Arraez and some other prospects for even Lopez. Because projectable pitching is much more valuable than the kind of hitting Arraez does. Arrazed for Lopez 1-1 is slanted in favor of the Twins and Lopez really isn't that much better than who we already have. But he would be more of it, so still a good get.
  9. August J Gloop
    Yep. You can't possibly think that people are clamoring to acquire Arraez based on the idea that 2022 was the end of the road up? Maybe we understand the concept of prospects a little differently. He's graduated off the MLB Pipeline list, sure, but he's still prospectively a great hitter. As in he's currently got one pretty good skill, and showed some potential for continued growth. What folx would be trading for is the projection that Arraez will keep adding OPS the way John Olerud or Mark Grace did. Otherwise, he's just not that valuable. His WAR outlook hinges on his ISO. Will it be .100+ or around .080? As you can see in his career, that's been the real difference maker. If he can make that .120-.130, he's a bonafide superstar hitter. Most guys need to get that closer to .3 to be nearly as good. But that's still in the realm of projection. Ergo, my statement that he's technically still a prospect.
  10. August J Gloop
    Cutch would have been nice. I think his choice to sign with the Pirates for roughly the same money tells you where his competitive heart is at. He feels the end and wants to have a smooth transition to retirement. I don't fault him for that one bit. He's only played outside Pennsylvania 1 year, and it wasn't that much fun for him. I think it's a great way to celebrate a great career, one more year being loved up by your best fans. I will say that the Gallo thing is getting way too much angst off this crowd. Dude has mostly been a great hitter in his career. He takes an unorthodox approach, but for the most part it's worked. Sure 2 out of the last 3 seasons have been a bit crap, but who hasn't had some of the worst days of their lives the past 3 years? Sandwiched between those two dud years? a pretty great one. He was a 4 win player in 2021! Heck we got folks in here talkin like Cutch would be a better bet. Joey Gallo put up more WAR last year than Cutch. In fewer plate appearances. While posting career lows in almost every offensive category. It's been since 2017 that Cutch has posted 4 wins. To answer the headline's Q: Zero. The Twins needed Cutch exactly zero much. He'd have been a nice luxury.
  11. August J Gloop
    Arraez is still technically a prospect. Teams trading for him will do so because they believe they can unlock some value via power or slotting him into a position that they have a real opening in. His trade fate was sealed when he couldn't play left field. He's miscast at first, even if the initial results were encouraging. The team has 3-4 guys floating around MLB-AAA who better fit the first base profile, starting with Kiriloff. The Twins have a better defender and likely pretty good hitter at every single position on the diamond, so Luis becomes a bit of a roster problem. Add in that the fans are attached to him, and it puts him in value limbo. It's clear that there are multiple teams who want him, so that's good. Hopefully it's taking a bit because there is a bidding war. When it's all said and done, Arraez should be headlining a nice pitching upgrade situation.
  12. August J Gloop
    Can't think of trades with Miami and then throw in one of Minnesota's starters. They have, what 8 already? Ober for Cabrera just creates the same problem for them, a talented pitcher with no options left. For those two a top prospect will be required and likely should be paid.
  13. August J Gloop
    Showing confidence in their ability to help him rebuild, and have the head start on an extension if they like the results. It's an easy choice.
  14. August J Gloop
    The Twins could get Sale for being willing to pay his contract. The only reason to send anyone back would be since you're gonna clear the roster spot anyway. Put a prospect in the deal and the Twins get one of the Sox best prospects or half off the contract.
  15. August J Gloop
    The batters he's facing aren't that great, but he's getting strikeouts and keeping the ball in the yard. Good signs. Means he's healthy at least. potential to make a big difference
  16. August J Gloop
    Trade or extend. Will there be a 1 year arb contract for Arraez? https://www.mlb.com/video/luis-arraez-s-head-shakes
  17. August J Gloop
    Since JB signed his extension with TOR before the end of the season, it's definitely good the Twins traded him. He was just gone. He seems to be a guy who has difficulty being coached and maintaining focus. Very talented, but just not reliable. SWR and Martin both still look like good pickups even if most of the value seems to be on SWR's side.
  18. August J Gloop
    Kiriloff currently sits very close to done. They could let him play in AAA to get un-done, but until that gap power comes back, it's over for him. He's not good enough defensively to let it ride out at the big league level. Tough break for a good prospect. If only Max is traded, I see a LF/CF/DH chimera with Gordon, Bux, Austin Martin and Celestino. Gallo will likely play nearly every day in right. He doesn't have any real platoon splits. His thing is just making better contact. Larnach can put that to bed by being healthy and effective in Left. He's also shown good D and limited indication of overcoming the platoon split level. Celly is probably out in that case, awaiting an IL stint for any of the Outfield Quadrangle.
  19. August J Gloop
    Jurickson Profar. He's been good in LF for the Padres and has hit pretty well in a pitcher's park. He also has some positional flexibility.
  20. August J Gloop
    Cabrera and Luzardo would be the dream get for the Twins and definitely worth Lee as the central part of the package. I don't know the full package, but the Twins absolutely could build it. The rotation would be solid (with at least two , could go 6 deep at all times, with the other stating options taking turns at Spå Bullpën to keep them arms light. Rotation - 1 - Grey, 2 - Ryan, 3 - Luz, 4 - Cab, 5 - Maeda, 6 - Mahle I like the idea of moving your most talented starters to the middle of your rotation, because it maximizes their seasonal value. (Against an Ace you generally need the Ace to have a bad day anyway to win so why not burn the bad start against a shut out?) I don't really think the Twins Rotation can be all that optimized, since everyone is all kinda on the same basic above average level. Cab and Luz bring potential for #1, but their floor is still good for the Twins outlook. Bully would look something like this: Ober as SP 7, rotating in and pitching 5 innings frequently. Pagan as the DFA ready long guy. (Emilio has to pitch his way out of the doghouse in these low leverage innings) Thielbar, Moran, Jax, Alcala, Lopez and Splink at the back end. I would Sign Matt Moore and bring back Fulmer to beef the Bully up. That would mean a DFA for Pagan, and likely AAA for Moran (unless Alcala is still slow to recover). If a 5 Man is better, you could still do the rotating starter with Kenta and Mahle and Ober all recovering from tough health years. SWR, Louie, Blaze and Henriquez would all be doing their best to knock on the door.
  21. August J Gloop
    Trade values don't exist in a vacuum. While BTV sees all teams as able to access the same pools of players, it's obviously not real life. The Marlins would be adding wins with that trade, and not subtracting much from their pitching potential. While the fish would technically be losing potential Win value, as it stands at leas some of their talent will be rotting at AAA, wasting their value entirely. And losing erodes talent, so Lop and Luz might be worth less by the deadline. But if the Marlins insisted, the Twins could toss in a prospect like Lee to get it over the top. Or Two if they don't want Arraez. Or they could take Rogers instead of Luzardo. That being said, I wasn't saying that's the only route. I'm just saying that the Twins extra bits would be sure fire starters for the Marlins, so a deal can be made there without really hampering the Twins pursuit of the ALC crown (and eventual playoff success).
  22. August J Gloop
    Yes, but yet we could jettison all 4 of those guys and still feature 10 batters who are able to OPS+ well over 100. My point in the suggestion is that Miami is in a really bad place and the twins have enough knocking at the door to help them out with established big league bats. It's a good match for a trade.
  23. August J Gloop
    It can barely be believed that Max would have been the Marlins 3rd best (OPS+) hitter last year. The Twins should be offering a little 'instant offense' package of Garlick, Kep, Gordon and Arraez. They could get Luzardo and one of Cabrera, Rogers or Lopez. That would be a pretty good deal for them, as they clearly don't have the cash to bring in decent hitters, and just sent away another contributor. The Twins would probably have to pick up most of the salary on that, but it could work. Miami might want to get a prospect, then they can't have Gordon.
  24. August J Gloop
    I hope that in May when SD gives him his release, the Twins send a jet to bring him in as Director of Longevity and Readiness. He could have additional duties as assistant bench coach and jr assistant hitting coach.
  25. August J Gloop
    Don't trade ML Pitching that has been above average. Getting Bednar is a Yes, doing it with a ML quality starter is a No. I'd try to sell them on Jordy Blaze (after I'd absorbed a couple of those Marlins Starters) and another good prospect.
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