Hawkeye Bean Counter

Eh, I would disagree and particularly on the pitching side. You have 4 pitchers from last years draft in A+ ball dealing. Culpepper, Morris, Lewis and Matthews. Add in all the 2023 pitchers, There is about 12 solid prospects that are not on the top 20 at all. Also outside the top 20 are Williams, Prato, Funderburk, Stevenson. No they are not elite prospects, but they look like potential MLB players with the outside chance of succeeding similar to a Dozier, or even Arraez who was typical in the teens or twenties on the prospect lists. Right now the depth goes about 40-45 deep in players that I am interested in. 12 of them are from the 2023 draft. As a note in 2019 Julien was ranked as a top 30th prospect and Varland wasn't even in the top 40. You won't have as many hits deeper in the rankings list, however, I think the depth is much stronger right now than what people realize. Granted we have had 2 more games not counted, but there should be a fire for Winokur, if you are calling Jenkins the real deal, right now he looks just as legit. Both have good speed, compact strokes, with plenty of power. Yes they need to continue to improve their contact rates, but both of them are raking for their first taste of pro ball. Winokur still playing at Center and SS is also very interesting, may have bit more defensive versatility in the future, but ultimately likely a corner outfielder. I think what you are seeing is the international prospects for whichever reason, the Twins have not done well with at all at the end of the top 20. They have tended to struggle individually and in the team settings. There are a couple with some power potential but for me they are meh and for the majority way to high on the rankings.

Yep that is the issue and there are lots of things floating out there that we just don't know the truth. There are claims she is 19 and the relationship was when she was 18. She then blackmailed to get 200k and a Mercedes otherwise she would ruin his career. He did not pay up. In either case its prudent for MLB to investigate and find the truth and circumstances of the case at hand. .

I don't think its that simple. The I don't know excuse has plausibility if they have documentation to support it and they have other players corroborating claims. If so he may still get suspended but no where near what Bauer got. Like I said we will have to wait and see. Rushing to judgement like in the Sano case didn't end in the way social media or some on forums expected either. Let the investigators investigate, and see what they discover and ultimately decide. I question the validity of her age, I am not saying it isn't true, however, it would be incredibly rare and would have had severe medical implications for an 11-12 year old bring a baby to term.

MLB and DR will have to evaluate the facts, and the age of 18 isn't necessarily the tipping point on the scale in this case. I think they will be evaluating several things: 1. What is her true age 2. What did she tell Franco her age was. Did she portray herself as older, having a child - allegedly drinking vodka and driving vehicles. 3. Did she have other relations or attempted relations with other ball players and what did she state her age is 4. What was the blackmail scheme, and is there documentation that shows whether Franco knew he was committing a crime, was unaware or ect. That documentation is going to be key. If it occurred on email or text messages or a DM software, it will show a lot of the intent. Obviously they will likely try to interview Franco and the accuser. Get factual information, but I think this hinges on the communication back and forth in the blackmail scheme and what other players tell mlb in the investigation and whether this was a scheme that targeted Franco and ensnared him.

We also don't know the circumstances- it appears the individual in question who claims she is 14, also has a 2 year old child. It creates question and I don't want to understate or overstate that. It also appears she may have had friendships, with other Dominican ball players. I am just saying let the investigation go on. For US rules it is fairly tough on the Accused if the individual was under age unless they were completely duped. Being in another country, immigration rules, the fact she was blackmailing him, has me make pause on this case. In the Sano case I said to let things play out, if he is a scumbag throw the book at him. If he was misled or otherwise, there may be some leeway in the case or they may do nothing if there is a lack of evidence to support the claims.

Doubtful, had it occurred in the US its a different story. MLB will likely put him on the Exempt list pending an investigation similar to Trevor Bauer. Again in that case there was no criminal case which would be similar to this yet he was still suspended for a very long time. However, the question ultimately comes down to did he know or should he have known she was 14. You can't have a blanket no penalties if it occurs in another country, but I do think it does create more cover for Franco and likely less, or much less penalties. The other question is was it factual or not, and is there enough evidence to support the accusations. In Sano's case, there was not enough evidence to support the claims, and it became a he said/she said. In any case it is not a good look, and there is the potential he is a scum bag and this is his last game. At present the likelihood he is suspended for a lengthy time but being that it is in another country, MLB will likely not be as forceful and someone will give him another shot depending on the substantiation of the claims.

Miranda is nice Kiriloff insurance. His value is already depressed. Kiriloff has struggled to remain healthy for a full year. He would just be filling the Gallo position. If 1 or both get injured, can have Williams Prato or another prospect come up.

Gallo is obviously being buoyed by a 4 hit game in august - however, that 1 game I am willing to give him another week or two. The statistical anomaly of him getting 4 hits is extremely high unless he fundamentally did something different and/or the pitching was poor, but he has faced poor pitching recently and did nothing with it. The homerun to the opposite field was impressive to me, he starts spraying a few more balls to left field he will find more hits. He needs more contact period, but if he is a .200 hitter with a .350 or better OBP that is a valuable player. He tends to be streaky, so if we hit for a month or two of him getting hot I will take it. It is small sample size but for August he has a 38% strike out rate. If he can keep it below 40% I think that is the key for him. Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ April/March 19 17 65 55 12 13 3 1 7 14 0 0 9 22 .236 .354 .709 1.063 39 0 1 0 0 0 1 .231 169 185 May 26 22 96 79 9 13 2 0 4 9 0 0 16 37 .165 .313 .342 .654 27 1 1 0 0 1 0 .237 76 81 June 16 14 53 49 5 9 3 0 3 4 0 0 4 26 .184 .245 .429 .674 21 1 0 0 0 0 0 .300 73 81 July 21 13 53 47 6 6 1 0 3 5 0 0 6 29 .128 .226 .340 .567 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 .200 47 52 August 12 8 31 24 3 6 0 0 3 6 0 0 7 12 .250 .419 .625 1.044 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 .333 172 180

He came over in 2021, they messed with his swing in 2021 and 2022, towards the end of 2022 he seemed to start reverting back to more of the contact hitter.

Personally I would have Martin above Varland and SWR. I think it is fair to remove Martin's early season stats due to recovering from injury. Had he not I think he would have put up very good stats this year. Between an amazing fall ball, an excellent spring training before the injury and now a strong August I think Martin is beginning to show the high average, high OBP player that we had expected when the trade was made. I have stated for quite a while I though the low numbers were an aberration due to the Twins system trying to make him into a hitter he was not. I still believe his baseline is a .280-.300 BA and .375 -.400 OBP type player with plenty of steals. That ceiling is much higher than Varland or SWR. Miranda and Martin are a toss up, both ceilings are higher than Varland and SWR - and Varland and Miranda have both struggled at the MLB level.

The extension is a big part of this deal. Arraez representation told the front office they were not interested in an extension. Whether Pablo let it known before the trade he would consider an extension or not, I don't know. However he signed an extension very early in the season telling me a lot of leg work had gone into it. I love Arreaz, but part of our previous history of fading at the end of the year had to do with Arraez. Here is Arraez splits. Arraez OPS + is 76 for August. His Batting average is .260 and that is in 50 plate appearances. As long as Lopez stays healthy the Twins win the trade due to the extension. Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ April/March 25 23 102 89 12 39 5 1 1 11 1 1 11 5 .438 .500 .551 1.051 49 2 1 0 1 3 0 .452 140 192 May 26 25 108 100 7 33 6 0 0 9 0 1 7 5 .330 .380 .390 .770 39 8 1 0 0 2 1 .347 76 113 June 26 26 116 106 17 43 5 0 2 19 0 0 7 7 .406 .448 .509 .958 54 2 2 0 1 3 1 .418 118 165 July 24 23 104 96 7 34 8 1 0 12 0 0 6 7 .354 .388 .458 .847 44 1 0 1 1 0 0 .378 93 130 August 12 11 50 50 6 13 2 1 1 6 0 0 0 4 .260 .260 .400 .660 20 2 0 0 0 0 0 .267 49 76

1. Who is the batting coach in AAA - right now he seems to be drastically outperforming. Prato, Williams and now Martin going off in AAA - others as well. I haven't checked so see if there is just a massive void of pitching talent in AAA or massive overperformance by the bats. Martin has flashed but he needs a strong finish to the year and to remain healthy. He is still on the same track for potential mlb utility player at some point next year, but the glove continues to need to improve. 2. Winokur - think I am more impressed he was able to hit an inside the parker home run - than over the fence home run. Jenkins with 2 stolen bases. My guess is the speed will wane with both players but that is dang impressive.

He should pitch to contact, he isn't striking out people anyways. He will need the extra pitches to get out of innings, but he absolutely cannot walk anyone. He is a filler, nothing more nothing less. Give us a chance to win and see what happens. Its why the Twins needed an overpay (drastically) if they were going to trade Gray or Maeda. We need our 5 pitchers for the rest of the season (but we need them healthy and fresh).

and neither have shown success in the playoffs during that time frame, which the masses including yourself seem to be clamoring for. - Look not a negative comment just trying to show how difficult it is for an organization to be deemed successful. I am done for the day. Like your takes Chpettit. Saw 1 more thing - since 1987 we have won the same amount of WS - beyond that yes we have paled as an organization compared to the Cardinals.

pretty sure the argument is since 2017 unless we are moving the goalposts.

If Arraez is a negative WAR or a 0 war player the remainder of the year (based on his previous history of waning significantly at the end of the season), and Lopez gains another 1 point WAR I would deem that close. However I fully get your point. You also have Jorgenwest showing that Lopez and Arraez are equal values. Add in pitching is always more costly than hitting. I just hope Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently.

Just for giggles - the terms of success are now deemed if they have success if they win or do well in the ALCS. That is effectively being one of the top 4 teams in MLB for the playoffs. I do understand winning at the end of the season against weaker competition, but that discounts the Twins having one of the tougher schedules earlier in the season and effectively playing .500 ball or better. The cardinals one of the teams that some have said we should be based off of, has lost in the Wild card the last 3 years and lost in the NLCS in 2019. You could argue if we get the playoff and to the ALCS we would have a very similar post season success rate.

I see more of a long term approach that they are building that they have tried to supplement the short term teams by raiding their previous years drafts. I just want to argue a couple of your claims Pablo Lopez signed a long term contract has 2 more years of control and will likely be an ace. I like Arraez but I think this years performance will be an outlier and we have have replaced Arraez with Julien. That appears to have been a massive win. Gray for Chase Petty is currently a heavy win for the Twins. We are currently at 5.6 WAR - most likely end in the 6-7 WAR range. Petty is in A+ ball and has done well this year, he also had arm soreness to start the year (I would keep an eye on this to see if a 1 off or may be early precursors to Tommy John). If the Twins get a prospect for Gray at the end of the 2024 1st round, that is a massive win. The Dobnak extension didn't work out, but if he had performed would have been a massive deal, even still its chump change. Paddack is under the same philosophy as Gray and Maeda. Both Gray and Maeda we have the potential to receive draft compensation if they sign deals with other teams. With Paddack if he performs well next year and the Twins offer the qualifying offer and he rejects, they receive a 2nd round pick if the contract is less than $50 million and a 1st if its more than $50 million. Its not a high probability it occurs but its a possibility and its worth the risk. I would argue the pitching depth is much stronger than we have had at any time in the last decade. They have Lopez tied up as its Ace for 4 years. You have Ober and Ryan on cheap contracts. You have Winder flipping from long relief back to AAA. In AAA you have Varland and SWR. I have more faith in varland. You have Paddack as a 1 year reclamation project similar to Maeda of this year. Long-term ace potential is likely Priellip or Soto. In AA you have Festa and Raya. In A+ ball you have Lewis Matthews and Morris. Then we have a load of new draftees to add to the pitching depth. I still have high hopes for Canterino. Again there is no top 100 prospect, but the pitching depth is much more than the sum of their parts and I think there will be several arms that come out of the system. I guess where I get frustrated is many think the front office should be held accountable for some of the issues of Ownership. That is a difficult question, in some aspects I can understand it, in other aspects I just don't. If you want a free wielding front office on contracts I would tell you to change your fandom to San Diego, Mets or Yankees currently because the Twins ownership will likely never allow that. Even still, the Mets and Padres still show you can spend all the money in the world and still not get the performance you want and we also have our own issues with the Correa contract. Ultimately this is a water cooler, and it is here more than anything to voice frustration not to dole out accolades :) Just look at the 9 articles on this website with a negative tone against the Twins and management after the deadline. There have been 2 so far with positive spin - and 2 with positive analysis on the Twins current win streak. Even still I guess I see a much rosier picture than most here and willing to give the organization additional time. My guess is ownership is also pretty pleased - but that is much more difficult to judge. The fans are still showing up - most likely will win the division and have had 2 great drafts in a row. I think the front office can sell their vision. Will the water cooler share it . . . As of now that is a negative. Correa was a major gamble and I think the major determination on the front office, if he continues to struggle, the noose may begin to tighten. Maybe they can get out of the contract, I think Correa will likely perform to historical norms, but it is worth keeping an eye on. This was a contract most were happy about, but it could be the front offices doom. It was a big gamble and risk with such a large contract.

Its been a win-win, currently Lopez is at 2.3 WAR, and Arreaz at 4.4 WAR. Arreaz is continuing his usual late season fade. His current OPS of august is .621 and his July was .847. Luis had a .438 BA for April and .406 for June- currently at .276 for the 7 games in August. I have stated the most likely outcome is that their WAR's become fairly close by the end of the year. The marlins valued Luzardo Perez, and Alcantara more than Lopez. Both have effectively outperformed expectations. The fact Lopez signed a reasonable extension with the Twins is what likely made this a win overall for the Twins. Arreaz appears willing to test free agency and after this year is only 2 years away. More than anything I think Arraez benefitted from 2 things. The first being his work out regime with Nelson Cruz is huge. He comes out of the start of the season like a beast. He has done this for the last 3-4 seasons. Secondly the change to the NL where teams didn't have as much experience with him I think was greatly advantageous. It is similar to the affect to Rogers going to San Diego. He had lots of success early, then due to overuse and teams becoming more familiar he declined rapidly. Arraez is a very good hitter, but the overperformance so far has occurred early in the season. If I were a team I would let him play to the ALL Star break, give him a month off to restart his work out regimen with Cruz and see if he can finish the season off strong. My gut feel is Minnesota will get much more WAR from Lopez than Arraez with the Marlins. It will be interesting to watch both players. This also doesn't include the fact that the Twins look like they may be able to replace Arraez production with similar if not higher slugging from Julien.

We can always take the Angels approach . . . Steady Eddie and give as many opportunities at the apple and waiting for something magical to happen is likely our best opportunity.

Kuechel is a success if he can be an innings eater and give our other starters a break if they need it down the stretch. Rotate around. Also Keuchel got out of some tough spots, expect a few more runs and crooked numbers to go up on the board when he pitches. If the Twins can go .500 ball in his starts its a huge win. You don't have to win them all, just win enough. If we can win 2/3 between Gray, Maeda and Lopez's starts in the rotation down the stretch we should be in great shape.

If he does that he is a top 10 prospect possibly top 5 :). I am happy with a top 20 to 25 prospect and in AA by next year.

Chpettit - I agreed with most of what you said I just want to look at the depth and who I see as star level prospects. Currently Julien's bat is a star if he can keep it going. A healthy Lewis is also a star, and Brooks Lee is well on his way to being a potential All Star. Can we hit on another Julien - with a Prato, Williams, or other AAA player - possibly but one of your gripes and others is they have to be given the opportunity. If Kiriloff can stay healthy that that is another potential star, Then can a Miranda or Larnach get over their recent struggles and become stars. Wallner could be a star but that is questionable. Most likely 1-2 of those become stars, if 3 or more become stars this team is set with the other prospects being fine if they are league average. Then we come to Jenkins, Winokur and other bats in the system that are still progressing up to the majors. The pitching pipeline has lots of potential #3 pitchers especially in the lower ranks. There is value in finding those types of players its why Cleveland has been as successful as they have been. We do need a star pitcher to come up through the system. That is either a prospect outperforming or a Priellip, Raya, Soto . . . or a possibly healthy Matt Canterino (has the arm talent- hasnt shown the health) taking that mantle. Yes lets hope for a good end of the season and some (any :) ) success in the post season.

San Diego and the Mets have owners that have gone all out on payroll. The Astros tanked and had 1st and early picks in most of the early 2010's to mid 2015 2016. they went through over 5-6 years of putrid baseball to build a foundation for what they have. I can tell you most cards fans are not happy with their season or their future. With an aging Goldshmidt and middle aged Arenado they are hoping their strong farm system can reload the organization. Angels and Mets fans are frustrated too. Its a tough game. Of the 4 teams you mentioned only 1 fan base is happy right now and the Angels are destined to a decade long rebuild now. We do all have various views, I just think the odds of the Twins effectively find another management situation on the level of Tampa Bay is slim to none. Their margin of error could also fall by the wayside. The 2022 and 2023 drafts will determine in the next few years the future success of the organization and my feelings it is a good front office. If they provide a solid foundation for future stars and pitching pipeline, it will give more than enough runway for the Front office (similar to what happened to Atlanta, San Diego ect) Those teams were built from exceptional drafting. We appear to have ample prospects in AAA to continue to give enough bats for the near term for success. We have some trade chips, and we have a solid rotation for the next couple years to build around (Lopez, Ryan, Ober) and I still think an elite closer in Duran. We should hope for a great end of the year and specifically for Maeda and Gray, which could allow for additional high round draft picks in the 2024 draft. The 2019 and 2021 drafts were both exceptional drafts even if they were semi raided to build up the current mlb team. The 2022 and 2023 drafts look even better currently.

Keuchel out there throwing mid 80's fastballs and slower helped the strategy. Arizona is also 3rd in the league in total steals and its a strategy they have been more willing to take. However you bring up a valid point and a likely strategy we will face as the season progresses.