Hawkeye Bean Counter

Based off this Bowden it seems Mets fans are getting optimistic. It is hard to say at this point. With Correa nothing is done until the signs, personally I thinks he would rather be a met than a twins player and we were merely used as leverage.

As a note Jim Bowden on mlb radio stated Correa would sign a deal with the Mets they were just finalizing details, supposedly this was from someone close to Correa, relative maybe? I think this will be over by Monday night one way or another.

It’s one year 30mil too much if that’s the contract, compared to what he could get elsewhere and with the risk of the ankle. I will be very curious to see if they front load salary and how many opt outs there will be.

I think he clears waivers. How many Teams are going to use a 40 man roster spot on a AA pitcher that has over a 4 ERA. Enlow is essentially on the fringe of what the Twins see as their future. They view him as someone they wanted to protect from Rule 5, but now that many rosters have been filling up, there is much less of a risk someone will claim him. He is the twins #20 prospect and is 2-3 years away.

They will have a full year of Maeda, Mahle and Lopez. Miranda will be older. We have 2-3 young hitters that we will see if they can finally be healthy. You have Ober and Winder, who we won't need to put as much innings demands on them to try to keep them healthy. We may be able to trade Kepler. This team has much much more quality and experienced pitching depth than at this time last year. You also have Paddack that may be able to help on the backside. What will be interesting is what version of Pagan do we get, late August Sept, or the rest of the year or is he also a trade chip. This will be a better team, especially if they can sign Correa, not necessarily that they will be able to make the playoffs, but I am good with solid ball and finding key cogs we can build around in the future.

Just wait, if we sign Correa many of these same people will have a new argument against the Twins front office :). What is the writers stance if they sign Correa at what is considered a reasonable contract? Suddenly the Twins Front office is brilliant, waited it out and got one of the best players to potentially one of the best contracts this year? Things move quickly in baseball, including Correa potentially getting hurt and essentially be done with baseball in a couple years. That is the risk assessment the front office needs to take. I'll sit back and see if the Twins get 2nd opportunity at the Correa apple.

This is coming to a resolution fairly quickly. Likely the mets and this is just posturing to get over the final leg, or a shorter deal with more guaranteed money than what the mets are offering currently will get it done. If it doesn't get resolved by monday will likely see him pivot to the Twins.

I'm not so sure. The risk in the insurance is likely primarily in years 8-12. So on a 8-9 year contract the insurance agents may be willing to take on the risk, especially if structured in such a way where more of the contract is front loaded vs later in the contract. Its becoming fairly clear the Mets are unwilling or unable to add more salary to the next few years.

I disagree, for the man with all the money he needed a 12 year deal to sign him, why to lower the AAV and reduce the tax burden. With the additional tax what is potentially 7-8 million more for a year for a shorter contract, is 14 to 15 mil with the luxury tax for the Mets.

Boras and Correa want the best deal period. I do think Correa would prefer being in a big market (Dior anyone?). I also believe Cohen wants him, The issue is the years and insurance, and my belief that as rich as Cohen is, he is tapped out on Salary for the next couple years. If clauses have the potential to wipe out the last 4-5 years of the deal, this is really a 200 million offer. At that point a higher AAV deal with shorter amount of years makes sense and I think the Twins would play in that playground. Odds are both sides give a little and Correa officially becomes a Met, however I am ready for the next chapter of this Soap opera.

2 of 3 are bad, but the 1 has the potential of giving us a #1 starter that we haven't legitimately had since Santana and Liriano. I am fine with them leaving at the reliever position, he did really well in that role last year, but damn would it be amazing if he could become an ace.

Duran, quickly goes to #1 or #2 if they move him back to a starter and he is able to dominate. RP may be his best spot, but I think it may be a disservice to the organization to not try him as a starter, as he has the stuff to potentially be a #1.

The pitching pipeline is finally starting to hit and will begin to help the Twins. Pipeline - Pitchers acquired or drafted Currently on MLB SP Ryan, Ober, Winder RP Duran, Alcala (both acquired before new management came on) AAA Pitchers considered prospects SP Varland, SWR, Balazovic RP Canterino, Henriquez AA (estimated level) SP Headrick, Raya Mooney and Festa RP Cruz A, A+ SP Priellip, Medina Nowlin (any drafted prospects that develop) We had a strong core of pitching drafted in 2021 that was drafted away for current pitching. There is a possibility this pipeline is further increased with trades at the deadline. MLB level Ober and Winder all come down to health. They may be better suited for the bullpen. Alcala can be an elite pitcher in the bullpen if he regains his health. Both Varland and SWR look like durable pitchers that have the stuff to at least be #3 pitchers, possibly #2. I see very little possibility of either flaming out. Both should their stuff was good enough for the MLB level at the end of last year. Right now both Balazovic and Canterino are wild cards in my mind. If I were to guess 1 will get their stuff and health figured out and regain their prospect status and become a main cog in the future as to who that is I am not sure. I am actually optimistic about the pipeline. However I am generally a glass half full guy. I think the biggest thing that appears to be lacking is a #1 pitcher in the pipeline. We have one player in the MLB who could be that guy and it is Duran. His stuff is elite. I think they will likely leave him as our high usage reliever. That leaves the prospects and the only individual who has the potential stuff that I see is potentially Priellip. However I think that is not likely. Maybe a Varland or SWR could outperform their stuff similar to many of the Guardians pitchers. Our best chance at a future #1 comes in the 2023 draft with the #5 draft pick. We can likely pick the #2 best pitching prospect in what is considered one of the best pitching drafts in the last decade. The 2019-2022 drafts were all considered poor for pitching prospects. In that aspect, the pitchers that the Twins have found is actually pretty good considering the circumstances. I do have to acknowledge we did send away our best chance at #1 pitcher to acquire Gray. We can potentially get a SP prospect at the trade deadline for him, but likely no one to the level of Petty (we will see if Petty pans out).

I could see the team win this year, but for me this year isn't a make or break for me. I really think the early start last year and signing Correa last year, delayed the necessary rebuild. This management team hasn't had the opportunity at a true rebuild due to early unexpected success. Now some of those players we traded last year could be helping are no longer available for future years. I still have a feeling the Mahle trade is going to be a major blunder for the front office when we look back in a decade unless we can sign him long term or trade him at the deadline for a nice haul I would like to see them remain competitive through mid season but tail off enough before trade deadline that they don't overspend again at the trade deadline. What I want to see this year is if we can begin to slot in 4-5 key cogs from the young players that can allow us to be competitive in the very near future to add to Buxton. Those that I will be watching (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Varland, Winder, Ober). We may have a few other players pop up. I am already considering Ryan and Duran as key pieces. I also want to see another well run draft. I also want to see significant progress in the minor leagues :). I would also like to see us lock up 1-2 of the pitchers for the next 4-5 years. Whether is Mahle or Gray. Any other extensions for young players would be an added bonus.

A medical professional came out and speculated that if he is passing physicals now, but concerns are arising from imaging it is most likely arthritis is beginning to develop in the joint and area. It essentially takes any long term deal past 6 years off the table.

Dan, I completely agree with you. We had individuals on this website posting articles how they are done with this organization/ownership/management. I can understand being semi upset, we should also know how in general the Twins are going to operate. They are trying to go out and land big fish, they have achieved that twice now, with Correa and Donaldson. However it didn't work this time. They will not go out of their comfort zone. There is also an aspect that the medicals are causing more problems than initially.

I don't want him, but this management had history with him in Cleveland. If they see value in him, they may take a shot, but he is definitely a bit of a pariah. Anymore just going to sit back and watch, see if they continue to keep me entertained.

I foresee a hard cap and a hard floor coming. You might even find the Yankees and Red Sox leading that charge. When the Padres and Mets continue to outspend it makes it difficult for even the historic big market teams to keep up. Players union will be ok with it because by increasing the floor you will increase the overall dollars going to players.

Here is the thing, the Mets are likely trying to get a short term deal done or an injury clause. However even with all the money in the world, Cohen went with a low AAV high amount of years. Meaning the Twins can likely beat the Mets on an higher AAV/shorter years deal if they want to. Correa will go to whoever pays him. He has shown to have that mercenary mentality, however even last year he did all the right things when he was on the team. I would expect the same thing. Correa wants the big payday, likely concerned about his own health. I guess I am slightly confused on what is the best path. Basically this is the only way the twins can ever get a superstar to sign with them on a long term contract, as we can see they can easily be outbid on any other year. Obviously its a no go if insurance is unwilling to insure the contract unless he goes for a shorter term higher AAV deal. If so the Mets hold all the cards on that front because Cohen can personally afford to pay him and lose him to injury. I am leaning towards a deal with the Twins again. This has already gone 2-3 days, meaning the deal with the Mets will likely fall apart, unless no one else can or will give a long term contract in the 9-10 years range that he wants. I could make a better estimate if we knew what the counter offer from the Mets is. Have they lopped off 75 mil and are in the 250 mil range, are they only in at a 6 year deal at 190 mil? It is hard to say. However only the Twins and the Giants appear to have the money to pull this off and I am fairly certain the Giants won't get involved again with Boras unless they get a very good deal in the situation. Boras drug them through the mud. I would venture the 3 teams consist of the group of (Twins, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Giants).

We are talking about a player whose deal just fell through due to medical concerns right? And what would he have accepted if the Mets weren’t a fall back. There is a chance he fails their physical too, but not likely.

I didn’t think of it earlier, there is a possibility him and Farmer are a platoon at shortstop. It gives him more opportunities to play next year. I am not sure his defense will hold up, but if he can play adequate defense at even shortstop he could be a very valuable asset down the road.

The Twins will likely win this trade hands down. 1. Pagan I think will be a useful reliever next year. Is August and Sept showed a player that was beginning to figure it out. 2, The procedure Paddack had is a 12 month recovery time was my understanding with a couple months to ramp up. We get a full year and a half control and possibly re sign. 3. If Medina turns into any type of prospect they win. I think Twins win this trade pretty handily, but it was ugly last year.

There have been ample examples of players that have had successful careers after not handling the bright lights and even when playoff games and championships.

I can see where he can have a potentially much better season with the Twins. 1. Eliminating the shift increases his BA 10-20 points. He was in the top 6 of shifted player percentages. 2. Go look at his splits, against Central teams last year he had close to 1000 OPS, granted he will not be facing twins pitchers. 3. New York killed his confidence this alone could be worth another 10-20 points. 4. He is an elite fast ball hitter in the low and middle parts of the zone. So pitchers are pitching much less fastballs 40%, and if they do throw a fastball it is up in the zone.Maybe the Twins can help him a bit with this. 5. If the BA is above .200 this contract is a win, if he gets to .220 to .240 he is a top 30 hitter. 6. The only reason this contract made sense is that we are trading Kepler. We can get Kepler production while trading for a prospect. I personally liked it. It has some risk but he walks more than Sano, The risk in the contract is that the shift was never the issue. It is pitchers have made adjustments and he has been unable to.

Minnesota put out the first offer. I don't think they have budged. I do think Boras is trying to get them to bid against themselves, I don't think its going to work.