Hawkeye Bean Counter

Duran, quickly goes to #1 or #2 if they move him back to a starter and he is able to dominate. RP may be his best spot, but I think it may be a disservice to the organization to not try him as a starter, as he has the stuff to potentially be a #1.

The pitching pipeline is finally starting to hit and will begin to help the Twins. Pipeline - Pitchers acquired or drafted Currently on MLB SP Ryan, Ober, Winder RP Duran, Alcala (both acquired before new management came on) AAA Pitchers considered prospects SP Varland, SWR, Balazovic RP Canterino, Henriquez AA (estimated level) SP Headrick, Raya Mooney and Festa RP Cruz A, A+ SP Priellip, Medina Nowlin (any drafted prospects that develop) We had a strong core of pitching drafted in 2021 that was drafted away for current pitching. There is a possibility this pipeline is further increased with trades at the deadline. MLB level Ober and Winder all come down to health. They may be better suited for the bullpen. Alcala can be an elite pitcher in the bullpen if he regains his health. Both Varland and SWR look like durable pitchers that have the stuff to at least be #3 pitchers, possibly #2. I see very little possibility of either flaming out. Both should their stuff was good enough for the MLB level at the end of last year. Right now both Balazovic and Canterino are wild cards in my mind. If I were to guess 1 will get their stuff and health figured out and regain their prospect status and become a main cog in the future as to who that is I am not sure. I am actually optimistic about the pipeline. However I am generally a glass half full guy. I think the biggest thing that appears to be lacking is a #1 pitcher in the pipeline. We have one player in the MLB who could be that guy and it is Duran. His stuff is elite. I think they will likely leave him as our high usage reliever. That leaves the prospects and the only individual who has the potential stuff that I see is potentially Priellip. However I think that is not likely. Maybe a Varland or SWR could outperform their stuff similar to many of the Guardians pitchers. Our best chance at a future #1 comes in the 2023 draft with the #5 draft pick. We can likely pick the #2 best pitching prospect in what is considered one of the best pitching drafts in the last decade. The 2019-2022 drafts were all considered poor for pitching prospects. In that aspect, the pitchers that the Twins have found is actually pretty good considering the circumstances. I do have to acknowledge we did send away our best chance at #1 pitcher to acquire Gray. We can potentially get a SP prospect at the trade deadline for him, but likely no one to the level of Petty (we will see if Petty pans out).

I could see the team win this year, but for me this year isn't a make or break for me. I really think the early start last year and signing Correa last year, delayed the necessary rebuild. This management team hasn't had the opportunity at a true rebuild due to early unexpected success. Now some of those players we traded last year could be helping are no longer available for future years. I still have a feeling the Mahle trade is going to be a major blunder for the front office when we look back in a decade unless we can sign him long term or trade him at the deadline for a nice haul I would like to see them remain competitive through mid season but tail off enough before trade deadline that they don't overspend again at the trade deadline. What I want to see this year is if we can begin to slot in 4-5 key cogs from the young players that can allow us to be competitive in the very near future to add to Buxton. Those that I will be watching (Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Gordon, Kiriloff, Varland, Winder, Ober). We may have a few other players pop up. I am already considering Ryan and Duran as key pieces. I also want to see another well run draft. I also want to see significant progress in the minor leagues :). I would also like to see us lock up 1-2 of the pitchers for the next 4-5 years. Whether is Mahle or Gray. Any other extensions for young players would be an added bonus.

A medical professional came out and speculated that if he is passing physicals now, but concerns are arising from imaging it is most likely arthritis is beginning to develop in the joint and area. It essentially takes any long term deal past 6 years off the table.

Dan, I completely agree with you. We had individuals on this website posting articles how they are done with this organization/ownership/management. I can understand being semi upset, we should also know how in general the Twins are going to operate. They are trying to go out and land big fish, they have achieved that twice now, with Correa and Donaldson. However it didn't work this time. They will not go out of their comfort zone. There is also an aspect that the medicals are causing more problems than initially.

I don't want him, but this management had history with him in Cleveland. If they see value in him, they may take a shot, but he is definitely a bit of a pariah. Anymore just going to sit back and watch, see if they continue to keep me entertained.

I foresee a hard cap and a hard floor coming. You might even find the Yankees and Red Sox leading that charge. When the Padres and Mets continue to outspend it makes it difficult for even the historic big market teams to keep up. Players union will be ok with it because by increasing the floor you will increase the overall dollars going to players.

Here is the thing, the Mets are likely trying to get a short term deal done or an injury clause. However even with all the money in the world, Cohen went with a low AAV high amount of years. Meaning the Twins can likely beat the Mets on an higher AAV/shorter years deal if they want to. Correa will go to whoever pays him. He has shown to have that mercenary mentality, however even last year he did all the right things when he was on the team. I would expect the same thing. Correa wants the big payday, likely concerned about his own health. I guess I am slightly confused on what is the best path. Basically this is the only way the twins can ever get a superstar to sign with them on a long term contract, as we can see they can easily be outbid on any other year. Obviously its a no go if insurance is unwilling to insure the contract unless he goes for a shorter term higher AAV deal. If so the Mets hold all the cards on that front because Cohen can personally afford to pay him and lose him to injury. I am leaning towards a deal with the Twins again. This has already gone 2-3 days, meaning the deal with the Mets will likely fall apart, unless no one else can or will give a long term contract in the 9-10 years range that he wants. I could make a better estimate if we knew what the counter offer from the Mets is. Have they lopped off 75 mil and are in the 250 mil range, are they only in at a 6 year deal at 190 mil? It is hard to say. However only the Twins and the Giants appear to have the money to pull this off and I am fairly certain the Giants won't get involved again with Boras unless they get a very good deal in the situation. Boras drug them through the mud. I would venture the 3 teams consist of the group of (Twins, Red Sox, Cardinals, and Giants).

We are talking about a player whose deal just fell through due to medical concerns right? And what would he have accepted if the Mets weren’t a fall back. There is a chance he fails their physical too, but not likely.

I didn’t think of it earlier, there is a possibility him and Farmer are a platoon at shortstop. It gives him more opportunities to play next year. I am not sure his defense will hold up, but if he can play adequate defense at even shortstop he could be a very valuable asset down the road.

The Twins will likely win this trade hands down. 1. Pagan I think will be a useful reliever next year. Is August and Sept showed a player that was beginning to figure it out. 2, The procedure Paddack had is a 12 month recovery time was my understanding with a couple months to ramp up. We get a full year and a half control and possibly re sign. 3. If Medina turns into any type of prospect they win. I think Twins win this trade pretty handily, but it was ugly last year.

There have been ample examples of players that have had successful careers after not handling the bright lights and even when playoff games and championships.

I can see where he can have a potentially much better season with the Twins. 1. Eliminating the shift increases his BA 10-20 points. He was in the top 6 of shifted player percentages. 2. Go look at his splits, against Central teams last year he had close to 1000 OPS, granted he will not be facing twins pitchers. 3. New York killed his confidence this alone could be worth another 10-20 points. 4. He is an elite fast ball hitter in the low and middle parts of the zone. So pitchers are pitching much less fastballs 40%, and if they do throw a fastball it is up in the zone.Maybe the Twins can help him a bit with this. 5. If the BA is above .200 this contract is a win, if he gets to .220 to .240 he is a top 30 hitter. 6. The only reason this contract made sense is that we are trading Kepler. We can get Kepler production while trading for a prospect. I personally liked it. It has some risk but he walks more than Sano, The risk in the contract is that the shift was never the issue. It is pitchers have made adjustments and he has been unable to.

Minnesota put out the first offer. I don't think they have budged. I do think Boras is trying to get them to bid against themselves, I don't think its going to work.

Ashbury, they may be trying to let fans know they have the offer out there. They may start to pressure Boras and Correa and tell them they will take the offer off the table. There is no rumors anyone is offering more right now.

Sounds like Braves gave up #1 prospect Muller.

I think the Twins are putting out an offer that they think Correa is willing to sign. I think there is a possibility they are 25 to 30 million over the current market for Correa right now. Maybe I am wrong, but the Twins are currently the highest offer right now.

The Twins have a contract offer of 285 million for 10 years. This has been reported by a couple people. Based on that information, the Twins have the best offer currently on the table. The only interested party at this point that could be willing to outbid is the Giants. However if they were willing to outbid, I thought they would have done it by now. Boras has a history of going directly to the owners to try to increase the contract, I don't think that will work with the Twins. It could possibly work with the Giants or another team that were to get involved. I think the Twins feel comfortable waiting this out right now. I could see Correa signing a 4 to 6 year contract with opt outs and trying again, but it is fairly clear his past history is limiting the number of teams interested in him. He has stated he prefers a long term contract. When you knock out the Dodgers, Houston, Red Sox and Yankees, and the Padres are willing to get Bogaerts instead of you, that really limits the teams willing to spend big on you. Just think where he would be at if the Twins weren't willing to go big, 225-250mil maybe???

Dollander I have seen stated that he is the best pitching prospect in the last 10 years. Essentially Since 2019 there has been a dearth of pitching prospects, Both the 2019 and 2022 drafts were stated as some of the worst pitching drafts in decades, you had the covid draft of 2020 and 2021 wasn't much better. I could see teams going more pitching heavy in this draft due to the lack of elite quality of pitching in the previous drafts.

There are currently 2 pitchers that could be taken in the top 10. Possibly 4-5 in the top 20. Then another 5 -6 for the rest of the first round. There is much more pitching depth for 2023 than the last 2 years. Chase Dollander looks elite. Both him and Crews will likely go 1-2 Hursten Waldrep is currently the #8 prospect. He is an elite pitcher maybe not quite the command of Dollander.

Giants have money to spend and want a superstar as well as the Cubs. I am not sure Correa is the Cubs #1 priority though. Right now I would say Correa most likely ends up with the Giants at this point.

So I am more optimistic now than I was even a month ago a deal can come together. 1. Phillies are now out with Turner. 2. Even though the Dodgers have checked in neither them or the Yankees seem to be serious in pursuing Correa. 3. The Cubs have also checked on Correa but their main goal appears to be signing Bogaerts and Swanson. 4. The most willing to give the money to Correa is the Giants, but it is looking more and more likely that they get their #1 target in judge. 5. Will that leave the Twins as the only real serious offer for Correa? 300 million seems crazy high, but considering it all may be as good of deal for a superstar that the Twins could ever get. I apologize for the double post, tried to do one earlier and couldn't get to process. Created new account with this post and the previous post popped up.

So here is what I see so far on who is interested and the current landscape for shortstops. 1. I did not like seeing Turner go to Philly I was hoping Dodgers would resign and Philly would go with their prospect. 2. Dodgers and Yankees don't appear to be current suitors for Correa. That is interesting, but it appears 2017 is still tainting him to those 2 organizations. Dodgers have had contact with Correa, but so far doesn't appear to be serious. 3. The Cubs and Giants appear to be the biggest competition at this point. Correa is the backup plan if the Giants cannot sign Aaron Judge, but with Judge flying to California and not notifying the Yankees the scales are tipping to the Giants getting their #1 priority. 4. That likely leaves a Cubs and Twins showdown for Correa. It avoids multiple teams bidding on him, and gives a better possibility that he might take slightly less money to stay with his current team.