Hawkeye Bean Counter

Yes that does appear so. I thought it would be a curve or changeup.

Its either the 2 pitch reliever route, or likely add a sweeper and keep as a starter.

The Mariners Locked on Podcast were actually pretty high on Bowen, had him as Mariners top 17 prospect, Gonzalez #7 (significantly lower than the top #100 ranking). They say the ball really pops out of his hand, they are a little concerned about durability with a thin frame, and that he is most likely a 2 pitch pitcher. He is more than just a flier. Best comment was, there is much much more chance higher than non zero that Bowen is the best player in this trade.

As to who you put on the trade block I understand. I like Julien better than Lee but thats a personal opinion. As to Desclafani, he had a better 2 month stretch last year than anything Shoemaker did in the 2 years prior.

You can honestly tell in that video he feels a ton better. A singular statement can mean squat. If you can't see in that video the improvement, but also the detail he goes into the procedure, it sure looks like he has a chance to come back healthy. I am more willing to be optimistic.

It is always at what cost Doctor Gast. We have checked in on all the major pitchers, and all the teams are asking way too much. Are you comfortable going a Lee and Lewis for Luzardo, Cease, or Burnes. We are currently in a Mahle situation. Honestly the idea of the trade was great, the cost was sky high. We should have only had to give up one of the bats. You can't control health, but you can control what you give up. Giving those assets away in trade precludes you from using them as a player or in another trade so I don't prefer to overpay. As to second baseman you have a damn fine SS, 2nd baseman in the minors named Lee that could either be traded or fill in for Julien if thats your cup of tea. I think most fans will be pleasantly surprised with Desclafani. I think I will performer closer to his 2021 numbers than 2023.

Wife says no go on spending money :).

This is a caretaker article I would love to have been able to read the full article.

One other name is Varland. See if we keep him as a starter, or he is a long reliever. Lots of competition in that reliever staff. The depth of the staff is so much better than what we have had for the last 4-5 years.

So what is positive, he feels the best he has in 18 months, feels the shoulder is much more open. Does sound like simpler side of the 2 surgery options, maybe even a variation of the 2 main ones. Does not appear to have the extreme negative outcomes of say a Harvey or Strasburg. Now he does discuss having a different feel for the ball. For someone who struggled with control that is a bit of a concern. The hope is that the velocity remains, he feels better and then he ends up with a couple more variations on pitches. I always thought he had immense ability and looked like one of the best pitchers we faced during the year. He does tend to let his emotions get to him, similar to a Pagan. When going well, does well, when struggling tightens up a bit. Ultimately if he can figure that out a bit, he could really take it to the next level. Several ifs here, but I really like the signing. Tons of upside for $1 million.

I would disagree, the farm is exponentially better, along with a much better product on the MLB team. We are in a stretch of likely continued success similar to the 2001 to 2010 era. Just remember now, after the season to look at the pitching pipeline. It will likely be the best we have had in a very long time.

I would be curious to see that rumor. However giving the sun and moon for Cease doesn't seem to be ideal.

“We have liked and tried to acquire him for years,” general manager Justin Hollander said in video conference Monday evening. “I think I’ve personally made more calls on this trade than I ever have on any trade before, at the behest of both of my own want to add him and our group. So really big day for us and I feel like it makes us a lot better.” May have been a 2 sided conversation, but pretty clear they were initiating some contact here. Even still if a deal get done I could care less who initiates it, and I think its hysterical that he thinks the front office is just sitting on their hands.

A good contact hitter like Gonzalez does not need elite exit velocities to be very good. Arraez, is a very good example. Now you would like a little more pop, and with his stature I would believe he would have decent power and HR potential in the majors if he makes it. This comes down to his hit tool which is elite, and then being able to refine the strike zone. He does those things you have a very good hitter on your hands.

No offense but its clear the Heyman tweet is just conjecture and no actual info.

I am more worried about the back and lower leg injuries.

Yes in a vacuum on paper, the Twins were made worse last night. I would take Polanco over Topa and Desclafani. However as stated what is the chance Topa and Declafani outperform Polanco in WAR next year 25%, 30%, 40%. This gave the twins more ammo, and more money to make moves. As a singular trade for the MLB team yes your post has merits. In the big picture there is a lot more going on. With your thesis the Twins should have never traded Rogers? I am glad we have Paddack this year.

I tend to think back injuries and lower leg injuries can be chronic.

Yes we can throw Polanco in at 3rd and watch his atrocious defense for 20 games. We can put Polanco or Julien at 1st. Otherwise they are primarily DH bats. Solano found a lot of his at bats at 1st base (85 games), where Kiriloff and Gallo both struggled. If Topa was the only thing we got in return in the trade you may have an argument but then you are forgetting about 2 other decent parts and a flier as a pitching prospect. I think Desclafani is actually a decent piece. I think you could flip him for a minor prospect and keep all the cash. That would be interesting LOL. My guess he is a decent #4 and #5 for us next year. He has a chance to be a #2, but I think Paddack has the highest ceiling of any pitcher we have. Ryan and Ober could both continue to tweak and improve. I do think we took a step back currently on our starters for next year, but its not a massive step back. The reliever situation could be massively improved. If Declafani and the starter hold their own, then that means Varland is a reliever. If Varland and Topa both show what they did in the bullpen last year, then we have the potential at a shutdown bullpen that we have not had in a very long time. Then the cash comes into play and we can see what we do with that. Lastly you have Gonzalez. Whether he is flipped or we let him play and see how he does. He is a very interesting young prospect. I still think the pitching prospect is a flier.

So who realistically do the Twins get that you would be happy with? It takes 2 to tango. I think the Pablo trade, negates most of the concerns you have. We found our #1 pitcher, the hardest thing to find. I am willing to give the team a chance to find its #2 and it may already be on the team.

Just to make sure you are calling 8 million dollars, a very solid reliever, a top 100 prospect and Desclafani, fat that needed trimmed???? I agree with some of your takes this is just dumb. Now could the trade go sideways, absolutely. Could Polo get injured for the season in spring training, absolutely. Just as much possibility as Gonzalez raking and having the highest BA in high A ball (like he did in A ball) and establishing himself as one of the top 4 prospects in our system. We traded from a position of strength. Now we have more to do. If we add an additional right handed bat, it immensely changes the calculus on this trade. If we use one of these parts from this trade or another similar piece to trade for a high end starter, it changes the calculus on this trade. Its pretty clear we got the most value that anyone was willing to offer for Polanco. I seem to remember similar consternation for the trade of Rogers for Pagan and Paddack. No offense but the Twins won that trade hands down. Its taken some time, and an additional contract, but we are looking at 2 years of a healthy Paddack and we got a decent Pagan last year. The twins management are very willing to take on a lot of risk in their trades. Over time, and over multiple trades, that risk taking tends to payoff. It can take time. They also have clearly targeted injured players in trade returns. The biggest trade not working out was Mahle. However the Rogers for Paddack and Pagan, the twins trade for Maeda obviously worked in the Twins advantage. Paddack has the potential of being a homerun.

I will laugh though if the Twins flip Gonzalez and a prospect or a current pitcher for a high end #2. Would make a lot of this consternation all for naught.

Saying Desclafani and Topa will not help the team in 2024 is your perspective only. Now its clear the Twins wanted Miller or Woo and were close, but ultimately its clear the Mariners were not going to part with either. Polanco was never going to get you that high end starter you want. If the Twins want to go for that, its going to cost 1 of 5 players, Lewis, Julien, Lee or Walker and possibly Soto. Mariners were the team willing to offer the most for Polanco, end of story, they maximized their value with what the Mariners were willing to give up and they were unwilling to go Miller or Woo. Where is that high end starter coming from, you are also ignoring that the Twins could do something else this offseason or 2 that you may have more pieces to trade for a starter at the deadline. I think Topa and Desclafani are more than just a low end pen arm and cross your fingers starter. Right now its your #3 to #4 reliever, and most likely a #4 to #5 starter that has the possibility at being a strong #3, low end #2. Also if Desclafani is the real deal, it allows Varland to become a full time reliever, and now we are talking about a very very strong bullpen. Look there is a ton of projection here. You are also projecting that Polanco can stay healthy. This trade gave us additional flexibility, it added to our coffers for another potential move as well. I will wait to see what the final roster is, but I like the trade. The majority of this trade is tied to Gonzalez though.

Dylan Bundy average 89 mph on fastball, and Desclafani averaging 93 mph (but closer to his average of 94 to 95 mph early in the season when healthy are completely different situations). Bundy's injuries had already zapped his velocity.

No one knows what their values are going to come in at. We are starting to get into crunch time, also read my post I said most likely higher. Its hard to know, if things solidify with TV contracts if the Twins would be willing to open the purse strings. Right now on a 1 year deal JD Martinez would be the best bat we can get that would also be a RH.