Hawkeye Bean Counter

That was just a good baseball game, not ugly by any means. A little stressful. I am not sure we win this game without replay though. 2 overturns, and then between Gallo and Baldelli challenging the umps and they changed their minds on the missed 1st base. Now to me whatever he call on the field was doesn't get overturned. I think the runner just knicks the top of 1st base but there may be a better view that what they were playing on TV showing otherwise. Giving up a home run happens, having a 2 run lead was nice. Pablo Lopez is the #1 #2 pitcher we have been pining for for years.

I honestly think the bullpen will be pretty strong the remainder of the year. Thielbar, Jax and Duran can do the majority of the workload, Pagan and Floro can do your medium to low leverage. Add in I do think we will be adding Keuchel. Whether Keuchel is a bullpen arm, gives days rest off for starting pitchers or allows Maeda to come to the pen, it adds another arm to the pitching staff. Some stated we should have traded Maeda and or Gray, and I even brought this up as well. However with the possibility on both (much higher on Gray) the Twins can offer qualifying offers that get a 1st or 2nd round draft pick back if they reject the offer. I think both will sign elsewhere and we will get a end of 1st for Sonny and a 2nd round draft pick for Maeda. You have to consider that value vs anything you would have received plus knowing they can be major cogs to a potential run. The theme on this board is this is a flawed team. I disagree, I think this is the best constructed overall team in over a decade that is a tad light on right handed batting but not bad. If Polanco, Correa, and Buxton turn it on, that fixes a lot of our right handed woes. We just need the bats to wake up. Correa has slowly been improving and Buxton looks like may be turning a corner. I think as a team and the bats specifically we have significantly underperformed so far this season but we have the bats to compete. This is by far the strongest starting pitching staff we have had, and with Jax and Duran (even going through a bit of yips) you still have a strong end of the bullpen. That is a team if it comes together can win the WS but we do need the bats to improve. This is something I have also said for a while but I will continue to say. The Pablo Lopez for Arraez deal is going to be very good for the Twins. I suspect by the end of the year on a WAR basis Lopez will be within 1 point for this year. Also add in the fact with the extension which it didn't sound like Arraez wanted to do you now get 2 extra years of Lopez because he was willing to sign a team friendly extension. Losing Arraez hurts, but for the Twins not irreplaceable, in actuality Julien is a very similar type of player (gets there with more walks than hits) but more power. Infield bats we have a plethora of and we can continue to fill in any holes that pop up on the infield from internal candidates for the foreseeable future. I am fine with standing pat, would have been fine if we added a bullpen arm at the deadline or even had traded a starting pitcher and flipped some prospects for a bat, however, this is still a team that has a chance. How high, maybe 2-4%, but it is a chance that things can click. Ultimately you need the starting pitching and this is the first year we can all say we have enough quality starting pitching going into any playoff series.

Tommy Pham has been traded, walked out of the stadium in street clothes, now the question is which team is he going to.

We should be getting some arms back from injury though, we can also move a starter to the bullpen. I feel like we have enough arms to compete, although an extra 1 or 2 would be good.

They generally only do deals where they think they are getting the much better value, with the exception of last year. That was more of an all in move, and they know it cost them a bit. So I expected to be much more reserved. If trades come to them they will do it, and likely at the last minute.

Hernandez isn't only an upgrade, he is one of the few right handed bats that has been elite in the past that could flip a switch similar to what happened with the braves and the outfielders they traded for a couple years ago. If we are going to get a bat thats the one I want.

Twins catcher depth is actually decent. Add in we were clamoring for a catcher, we got one, Nate Baez came back healthy and has started to perform fairly well in these early stages.

There is a couple things at play. The first being it appears the Twins want to make a spot for Keuchel. I don't know if this is smart or not, he has looked good in AAA so far. The second is what is the return. In regards to Sonny Gray there are moving parts that greatly affect is worth. The first is his performance has been diminishing throughout the season. Second Twins could offer qualifying offer and get a 1st or second round pick if he signs elsewhere. If he were to retire would get nothing. Most likely unless blown away with an offer you keep Sonny for the remainder of the season. Maeda, may have some value especially the way he has pitched since the all star break. We will see what the outcome is today.

Similar things were said about Robert Smith, Barry Sanders and many others. Money isn't the #1 thing to all people. Once you have created a good nest egg and invested well that extra year or two isn't necessary. Maybe he was playing the reporter, I don't think he is, and with those statement to say there is 0.0000% chance he turns down a big offer to retire . . . I would take that bet any day because the odds are all in my favor.

Other than Festa who may be a sell high candidater - Raya is unlikely as has potential to be #2/#3 pitcher and with health concerns likely wouldn't get the return. The medicals and poor performance would be hindering Martin as well. Likely won't make any big splash anyway, so no prospects in the top 10 are likely traded.

Martin has played well the last 4 days, I am more than fine letting him run in AAA for the rest of the year. Let him get comfortable there, then can be an option next year. He has played, LF, CF and multiple days at 2nd.

“Wouldn't shock me if I didn't play any more after this year," Gray told Twins MLB.com reporter Do-Hyoung Park. "Wouldn't shock me. Do I want to? Do I think I can? Absolutely. And I can at a very, very high level. It's not about the money. It's whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it." Look I think we can all agree Sonny is a different breed. Both good and bad. He is very analytical, tweaking ect. Even though this has been one of his best years, I think he is having a personal struggle of knowing his stuff is beginning to wane a bit and trying to maintain being an elite pitcher. Even myself and my wife had have conversations about at what time could we either cut back on work or retire due to just the daily stress. Sonny doesn't make that statement unless he is serious. I still think he comes back to play, however I am not going to just push that statement to the side. All the money pales into comparison to your family. If he feels he has a large enough next egg, I could see him retiring. If not then yes he could sign a 2-3 year contract.

You also have the possibility that Gray is retiring at the end of the season 9 (I think that possibility is small but it is there). Gray has done everything we should have expected in the trade and then some. Wish he would have just had more support from the bats.

Is this revisionist history??? Other than AA Julien has had better OPS numbers than Wallner at every level. Julien beat Wallner in OBP handedly at every level which would be expected. Its scary how consistent Julien has been at about every level other than A+. A .290/.440/.490 OPS of .930. Just crazy how good he is and continues to be. No decrease even facing better quality pitching. However that doesn't mean Wallner has not had a very good bat and I am hoping continues at the MLB level. He just has a lot more swing and miss than Julien.

Definitely odd, but they seem to want to make a spot for Keuchel. Honestly that pick and the way he has been pitching looks like he is a viable arm for the rest of the year. Our left handed outfileders and currently starting pitching we seem to have excess of, going to be interesting how they will move around pieces. I am expecting at least 2 more trades for the rest of the deadline.

Gray - a lot depends on whether he will retire or not. I would be open to trading if decent prospect, keeping if will continue to pitch and get compensation draft pick for him, or lastly keep him for rest of year even if plans to retire Maeda- I think need to keep Maeda. With Ober currently our best pitchers. Still an outside shot he performs well the rest of year and can also get compensation pick for him. Buxton- I think its slight, but possibility he could be traded, difference in philosophy between him and org, likely offseason trade but worth putting out there and acknowledging MLB players with higher value that could be traded- Ober (would not like to see it, but of our pitchers other than Ryan would likely get best return for), Kiriloff MLB players with some value could be traded - Kepler Wallner Larnach, Balazovic MLB players with minimal value - Gallo Solano, Taylor, Castro Farmer Prospects - Varland, SWR Martin, Canterino, Festa, Sands, Headrick, Prato, Isola, Williams I think this is likely the players that we would likely be swapping in and out. Some have higher possibility that others. Will wait to see what pops up.

Money adds up. An organization can decide how they want to use their financial resources. I can make a valid argument on why it is a reasonable philosophy to continue, and yes you can full state and believe that they should. I guess I am not always willing to be a defender of the front office but I get the strategies and things they have been successful at over the past 5 years. There are things that can be critiqued I am just not sure this is one of those items. As to money 717,000 is what would be the overage, with penalty that is 1,254,750. I don't think that is a drop in the bucket. Thats 1% of payroll. Add up if consistently do it over several years. It adds up. The question becomes what is the benefit from that and will you hit on an extra player from doing it for several years that is worth the extra money that has been spent. Differing opinions is always a good thing, would rather have this than group think.

Its because the Twins have a precedence of not going over. Whether its an overage, or they never want to utilize the penalty its the Twins philosophy. The advantages is you avoid some of the gamesmanship from agents, and if we had gone over in prior years, I can guarantee that Boras would have used it here. So the nuts and bolts is likely a situation where the Twins are paying more for the same prospects before if they were willing to use the overage. I have provided the math and the reasoning why it could actually be a prudent strategy. It all comes down to the success rate on whether this is a good strategy or not. Depth wise the Twins have a pretty strong system, lacking slightly on the extreme top end, but overall very good and will likely only get stronger in the next year or two.

Look I think it would be smart to do. Spend 500k on a higher level prospect late in the draft and see what happens. First though you need a player willing to sign at that level, then you need to see if it hits. So lets realistically look at it. How often does an Edouard Julien hit - 2%, 5% 10%. Throw in high schoolers on top of that - 1% 2% 4%? The odds are not high but they are there. So we have established a low success rate, add in the tax penalty and it is $875,000. Do that 10 years and not hit on a prospect and you are spending first round money for nothing and its better to have saved the money. I think the Twins are taking enough quality bites at the apple in the draft its not as necessary. It is understandable why high revenue teams are willing to constantly go over, but for a small market team you can see the prudency. It also doesn't avoid the Twins from still trying to maneuver their money and get a Julien like they did in 2019. However, that went right down to the wire.

I would prefer to use prospects we could lose in the rule 5 maybe 1 other minor prospect. The prospects Chicago got back other than the catcher who is still young is ok but not game changers at this point. If we can say one thing about the Twins is they are developing prospects out of the draft frequently, we need to hit more on the talent we are acquiring. But I would consider Gray a hit, Lopez also (not quite as much but have multiple years of control now) and maeda as well. Mahle and Lopez were obvious duds.

Still don't think this is the year to go all in, just like I didn't think last year was the year. We have a few less chips in the minors but still pretty good. It doesn't look like Hader is available and is likely out of the Twins price range anyways.

Teoscar Hernandez for Kepler seems like the easy trade. Both basically on short term deals, have an option for next year on Kepler. Mariners can use some left handed help, Twins on the right. Hernandez is the better bat while Kepler the better fielder. Mariners can continue to fight for the season possibly have an option for next year. It still doesn't solve the Gallo conundrum. I was hoping Gallo would work out, it hasn't been abysmal like New York or the Dodgers but it hasn't been good either other than the first couple weeks. As to what we do for relief pitcher I am not sure. Prato, Isola, Headrick or other 20+ prospect I would be willing to flip for just a useable RP arm. I am not looking for elite, just a solid arm.

If a framework was agreed to you should honor that, not try to squeeze out additional money because you think the organization has the money. Yes you are talking 200,000 to 300,000 but if you are willing to do that with 1 pick, more agents will do the same and you are no longer looking at just 200k to 300k. We can all say we wish the Twins would spend more. They are beginning to spend more, but we are likely to remain still in the bottom 1/3 in payrolls. We will see what happens.

Means it was on the agent and not the Twins . . . most likely Boras trying to squeeze out a few more dollars.

Buerhle, 38th round out of high schoool, Pujols 13th round, graduated early played 1/2 season of juco ball. Michael Brantley 7th round. Jose Bautista 20th round Edwin Encarnacion 9th round, Rizzo 6th round . .