Hawkeye Bean Counter

The next 7-10 days are big, which is why Tom was unwilling to wait til the deadline to get help. Competent arms are needed now. So far it’s a start and nothing game changing but instead of just trying to get the game to Gomez you have a couple competent arms to use now.

We have 4 relievers who could be on most bullpens right now. Morris, Gomez, Nance and Sands. There is reliever that’s been dfa’d and has to be traded in the next couple of days. Coulombe is a nice depth piece. There may be another team such as Washington who may have more bullpen issues than us, but say what you will I think Tom is willing to put some investment into fixing the bullpen. I think he is the next shoe to drop, After that we will see which teams are willing to shop their relievers and what the prices are. I still think we need a #3 starter as well. How much are they willing to invest. So far they have gotten by pretty cheaply.

Diaz - $23 mil AAV Williams - $17 million AAV Suarez - $15 million AAV Weaver - $11 million AAV Pagan - $10 million AAV I get what you are saying. I really wanted Dominguez and he has a 4.41 ERA. So is Chapman going into his 39 year - yes. Relievers seem to be able to keep performing at an older age but I think he could still do solid. In either case going after a reliever and a starter pitcher is still what I see they will do. The punting on relievers experiment actually appears to be working out ok for this year all things considered. Yes they have the worst ERA, but they aren't the worst at blowing leads and they seem to be strengthening the bullpen with more reinforcements coming into play. Morris and Gomez seem like really good finds.

Excellent podcast. Great info JD.

I think at that point you keep him Mike. We have a cheap team already. However it sounds like Jeffers is pretty intent on getting a long term contract.

Lapour I completely agree with. He is an intense bulldog. Sean Johnson said if he had been healthy this year he is most likely a #1 draft pick. I agree. He seemed to do everything right. Fastball 60 Slider 55 Changeup 50 Control 50 but he is only a 45 prospect LOL. Maybe some injury risk. His 2025 stats were better than a Volchko 2026. It was mentioned on one of the podcasts ive listened to - that the Twins are slightly leaning into propects that have been wrestlers - super competitive. Keaschall, Lapour and I believe 1 more middle infielder. They view him as a starter along with Murdock. Burns - I completely agree. JD Cameron says he could be in the bullpen by 2027 and honestly if he can figure out a little more control and 1 secondary pitch. Game on. JT Raab is the big lanky pitcher that could fill out and really develop in the next year. Colby Turner is an excellent bat infielder that performed really well in a power 4 conference. Isaiah Lane - good frame good defense, decent bat. I think they see upside here. The rest are lottery tickets in my mind. Not to say things can't click or ect. I mean I can like Prather and some of the pitchers. Teel is solid but is getting drafted as much to the family name.

I think you take Chapman at $13 million for next year and smile all the Way. As to Gray, I didn't know that and that is extremely interesting. I thought the contract was done. $30 million mutual option - or $10 million buyout. The buyout is occuring unless Tom feels he has the money and they do a 2 year extension at $40-$50 million. I would rather the money goes to Joe Ryan as an extension, or Pablo Lopez with injury concerns.

The ideal scenario is signing him to an extension. He seems like the type of player that just continues to get better each year. He takes good care of his body and he had an inner drive. He needs to maintain performance throughout the year. He will not be traded at this years deadline unless things tragically fall apart. I think teams are nervous for next year so won't give full value and Tom really wants to win to keep his word. So you wait til 2027, you see if can sign to an extension. The Twins will have money available, and there is a possibility the big market teams won't have the resources to splurge. Could be a nice coming together of the market. There will likely be no comp pick options. Worst case trade him at the deadline in 2027.

Who will the Twins have as a Catcher in 2028? We have no one signed and no real options in the upper minors. Maybe resign Jackson and Caratini?

I had guess we would be a tad below .500 so we are right on Track. I think the Twins do not sell at all and are active buyers. The question is how much. I've stated before but it does appear with Nance replacing Banda, Sands projected to come back after the Break and Coloumbe being available it could help solidfy the bullpen. The lineup/hitters have been solid accross the board. Buxton has been battling the hip all year and I think this break will hopefully allow a strong push for the deadline. Can the hitters remain on a hot streak. This is my biggest question - and I am cautiously optimistic. Lee has consistently gotten better, Bell heats up as the season goes on, Jeffers is back and Caratini can fill in if undeperformance, Buxton is Buxton if healthy, Keashall made the adjustments and Larnach looks like for the 1st time in his career is really getting comforatable. Roden is nice depth. Culpepper and Jenkins can provide a boost from the minors although I do see some risk on this as if added to the 40 man they will be unable to play in the minors next year if there is a work stoppage. Additions - beyond Coloumbe I anticipate trading for 1 SP and 1 more good to elite reliever. A Red Sox losing streak is my hope, and trading for Sonny Gray and Chapman is the ideal scenario. I would lose zero sleep on trading Rojas or Tait as the headliner with Roden as the additional piece. These are the questionable pieces we received last year that I'm not quite sure how they fit in the long term picture. As to starting pitching - I expect Ryan to avoid his normal 2nd half slump and Bradley to continue to become a low end #1, high end #2 pitcher. Someone like a Gray would really create a nice trio of starting pitchers. Lopez would replace Gray for 2027. Twins win the division and win the 1st round in the playoffs losing in the 2nd round as the hitters can't quite compete with more professional ball clubs.

The soonest would be a cup of coffee in 2027 and being the starting Catcher in 2028. The minors will go on next year no matter what so here would be the timeline. August - Sent to high A+ - Does well acclimates well to the wood bat. September - late call up to AA 2027 - starts in AA and continues to rake June/July - Promotion to AAA Sept - cup of coffee with the Twins to acclimate for 2028 To me this feels like the most optimistic timeline and would work out really really well with their current Catching in the Majors. The Twins will have Caratini and Jackson to hold down the MLB for next year, then they have very little options for 2028 moving forward. Its Tait, Diaw, Tinney and Lackey.

Doogie acted as if it is still available this offseason. After than I think it goes away. This is likely the last year. Researching further - Qualifying offer needs to be made 5 days after the World Series. Players have until Mid November to accept. The current CBA goes through December 1st of 2026.

Teel is interesting. Family connections, resources and the ability to get massive advice from his brother. He was solid if not unspectacular, but there is upside. He likely needs just a little more more, and a little more hit tool and he could be a good depth piece. Turner is the fireplug with good hit tool we have repeatable drafted or picked up as UDFA. Lane was a target and from a couple draft people he is stated as one of the better draft picks for the Twins in the last 10 rounds. Good defense, solid bat - needs some refinement. He did have a violation of team rules which is why he left San Diego. He has the upside to make it in the minors. He is well worth monitoring. Bouchard - I am not seeing. There is likely something they like, and maybe with maturity and refinement they can find something. Sholvin is similar to Turner - solid bat, willing to take the HBP. 19 more HBP pitches than walks in the last 2 years LOL. Thats funny. I actually like taking more hitters in these rounds and they don't feel massively different than some of the picks we have made in the 2nd to 5th rounds in prior years. I think all in all its a really solid draft. Elite player Lackey, Upside in Tinney and some solid pitching prospects and hitters but nothing that truly jumps off the page.

LOL - say what you will the Twins drafter every version of a pitcher they could find - much more variability than prior years except an elite pitching prospect like prior years. Solid pitcher with good stuff good control well rounded - Renfrow High upside prospect - Wachsmann High Velocity - primarily 2 good pitches with command/control issues (Reliever risk and high variability) - Lapour Murdock Burns - Scouting Director said they viewed Lapour as a 1st round pitcher (which is interesting) Senior sign - bonus savings solid Pitcher limited upside- Lay, Klecker Pitchers with 1 elite pitch - Bayles, Tall Lanky Pitcher to refine - Raab Control Pitchers who currently have nothing elite - need velocity and at least 1 elite pitch - Bouchard, Mattison Moutzouridiis, Barnett The Twins this year had much more variability in their pitching prospects this year. I hope it works out. The last 2 years drafts other than the elite picks have not added a ton so far to the minors. Some due to injuries some due to underperformance. I think the Twins lost a key pitching coach a couple of years ago. I truly hope some of these guys figure it out.

Twins appear willing to lean into high upside pitchers with reliever risk - Lapour, Murdock, Burns. To me it appears they have an intention to try and draft more reliever prospects, rather than just converting starters to relievers. If either of these 3 develop a 3rd pitch and gain some control you have high a high upside starter prospect.

The full return on the trade deadline selloff is complete. I was firmly in the belief getting an elite draft pick would be the biggest return from tanking the remainder of the season and from the prospects received. The Twins ended with getting the #3 pick who was clustered with the other two, a likely top 25 global prospect and was viewed similarly to Posey and Rutschman. Now there is variability of performance at the catcher level. This was a massive win for the organization. If we had not traded we most likely end up with Burress, Bell, Lombard or Lebron. They are good prospects, but all have some warts. Lackey is effectively wart free for a catcher which is crazy. Here is the return now as I see it. #1/#2 Pitcher Bradley- 2029 Potential Franchise Catcher - Lackey Abel #2-#4 Rojas backend rotation or bullpen piece Tait - power bat but still young and working on swing decisions ton of variability (after the draft I think I trade him) Mendez - has an MLB bat - maybe the best return Roden - I feel like a similar player to Larnach with slightly better defense - Misc - Jimenez (C upside), Horn and Gallagher - solid but stuff likely not good enough MLB In hindsight, as most stated at the time, trading and losing Varland who wanted to stay in Minnesota was likely the biggest loss. However I am think its highly unlikely the Twins then do not have the ability to draft Lackey. The Twins could have won 6-8 more games with him guiding the bullpen last year and would have kept morale higher. The team quit in August and September. Varland has turned into an elite closer, but all in all the sell off worked as painful as it was. I still think it would have been in the Twins best interestto have traded Ryan before the season - as the intention appeared to be but Pohlad just didn't have the stomach for it. Say what you will Tom appears steadfast on adding to this team and competing as he stated. I think we give some table scraps to continue to rebuild the bullpen such as getting Coloumbe. At the deadline things will get interesting. I hope the Red Sox fall back. I think the Twins after some of these moves, are an elite reliever and #3 pitcher away from competing in the playoffs. Would they be willing to create a package around Rojas or Tait - with someone like Roden and maybe a sweetener to get Gray and Chapman? Right now I say no. If the Twins are winning the Red Sox lose more - bringing back Sonny Gray would be a PR dream (plus a good player) along with an elite closer. I honestly don't think the Twins still have enough, especially professional hitters, but with a rebuilt bullpen - Chapman, Gomez, Morris, Nance, Sands, Coloumbe, Go, Rogers - That would solidify the bullpen and actually potentially make it a strength. Granted its a 2 month rental, and this likely isn't the year to go for it, but honestly I wouldn't be opposed. You would have a 3 headed pitching monster in Ryan, Bradley, Gray. Tom has stated he isn't trading any of the key players unless we lose, Ryan, Jeffers and Buxton and stated he wanted to see trades for the bullpen - 1 day later we got Nance. I think Tom wants to show he is a man of his word. It could be short sighted but it would definitely be fun. What a reversal from last year, and the deadline deals and tank really have improved the organziation and outlook for the future.

Nightingale has already reported unless the Twins fall out of contention the next 2 weeks they aren’t trading Jeffers. Pohlad say what you will wants to go for it and complained we weren’t being active enough trading for bullpen pieces. Next day or two we picked up Nance. I put the odds we get Coloumbe at 90%. That is a cheap pickup likely cash or minor piece. We need 1 high leverage arm- knocks everyone down a spot and the bullpen could be above average.

Pretty sure it’s $23 million. If there is a floor we have to spend. If it’s a partial season or no season we are out minimal, and the talk is out there he would turn it down and the Twins would get one of the last comp picks. The team picking him may also not be penalized.

They will give him the QO. They effectively win either way.

Jackson has more value to the Twins right now than anyone they can get in a trade for him. He is currently penciled in as the backup catcher for next year and that is a great spot to be. Unless the Twins get a godfather offer, a massive overpay for Jeffers - He is currently worth ($6-$8 million for 2 months) you are better to play him - see if can outperform and do the math on if you can get a compensation pick. Now It gets weird how it will work with the new bargaining agreement. I hope they can negotiate it fairly quickly. I do think it gets done before the season. Plus Jackson is the perfect 13 man because he isn't a prospect you are still trying to develop. He is necessary insurance if Jeffers or Caratini gets injured.

Well you also have Adley Rutschman who at the time was rated higher than Lackey. He started off at a hall of fame level his first 2 years then has fallen off since. He has a slight shot. The biggest difference I see is Rutschman stats were in the Pac 12 while Lackey was in the SEC. Rutschman rated 65 slightly higher on power - much lower on run (30 vs 50 for Lackey) and a fielding of 65 vs 55 for Lackey. Most think with Lackeys athleticism the defense will improve. Adley is sporting a career .250/.327/.436 slash line. For a 60 hit tool the batting average is low and he has shown no where near the power that he was anticipated to have. Even still he is a 16 plus WAR in the last 5 years he just didn't reach his potential. Then you have Posey who was an absolute stud. Posey is the closest comp I can find at the college level. Henry Davis even though drafted #1 was a significantly worse prospect - lower in every category other than arm compared to Lackey. His batting average has been horrible at the MLB level. If I have any concern its that the hit tools haven't matched up close to production for Rutschman or Davis. As to Jenkins - I would say the ceiling is a more powerful Tucker. He can provide good defense while providing great contact with power. I really think he will fill out more and 30+ home runs per a year is what we will see from him. So far though injuries and performance wise the power hasn't quite shown up yet.

Here’s a question, of the players in the minors including Lackey, who has the best chance of being a hall of famer. To me it comes down to 2 players. 1. Lackey 10-20%, the defense is very good and the hit and power is elite. He is right in the conversation of tools similar to Posey, Mauer and Realmuto, it’s also a position that a 40+ WAR can get you in the Hall of Fame. 2. Jenkins- 5-10% age is on his side. Injuries are a major question as well as can he consistently be an elite hitter at the mlb level. These are the 2 who have a shot currently in my opinion.

Well then no one should be concerned if Jackson is holding that spot for the next 5 - 6 weeks as the 3rd catcher.

Jackson was the intended backup until Caratini became available at a reasonable price. Yes great insurance and he has been an excellent backup. Yes so we are slightly at a disadvantage for roster construction for 6 weeks. Honestly this has worked about as well as it could have all things considered. I stand by that Jeffers doesn’t get traded. He is worth about $6 million worth of prospect value. If he performs well the remainder of the year and turns down the qualifying offer- the Twins get a late round first. Say what you will this is also what Doogie says and say so on the draft podcast.

The defense is notably better in the last 2-3 weeks. Kreidler is providing excellent defense at SS.