Hawkeye Bean Counter

If Arraez is a negative WAR or a 0 war player the remainder of the year (based on his previous history of waning significantly at the end of the season), and Lopez gains another 1 point WAR I would deem that close. However I fully get your point. You also have Jorgenwest showing that Lopez and Arraez are equal values. Add in pitching is always more costly than hitting. I just hope Lopez continues to pitch as well as he has recently.

Just for giggles - the terms of success are now deemed if they have success if they win or do well in the ALCS. That is effectively being one of the top 4 teams in MLB for the playoffs. I do understand winning at the end of the season against weaker competition, but that discounts the Twins having one of the tougher schedules earlier in the season and effectively playing .500 ball or better. The cardinals one of the teams that some have said we should be based off of, has lost in the Wild card the last 3 years and lost in the NLCS in 2019. You could argue if we get the playoff and to the ALCS we would have a very similar post season success rate.

I see more of a long term approach that they are building that they have tried to supplement the short term teams by raiding their previous years drafts. I just want to argue a couple of your claims Pablo Lopez signed a long term contract has 2 more years of control and will likely be an ace. I like Arraez but I think this years performance will be an outlier and we have have replaced Arraez with Julien. That appears to have been a massive win. Gray for Chase Petty is currently a heavy win for the Twins. We are currently at 5.6 WAR - most likely end in the 6-7 WAR range. Petty is in A+ ball and has done well this year, he also had arm soreness to start the year (I would keep an eye on this to see if a 1 off or may be early precursors to Tommy John). If the Twins get a prospect for Gray at the end of the 2024 1st round, that is a massive win. The Dobnak extension didn't work out, but if he had performed would have been a massive deal, even still its chump change. Paddack is under the same philosophy as Gray and Maeda. Both Gray and Maeda we have the potential to receive draft compensation if they sign deals with other teams. With Paddack if he performs well next year and the Twins offer the qualifying offer and he rejects, they receive a 2nd round pick if the contract is less than $50 million and a 1st if its more than $50 million. Its not a high probability it occurs but its a possibility and its worth the risk. I would argue the pitching depth is much stronger than we have had at any time in the last decade. They have Lopez tied up as its Ace for 4 years. You have Ober and Ryan on cheap contracts. You have Winder flipping from long relief back to AAA. In AAA you have Varland and SWR. I have more faith in varland. You have Paddack as a 1 year reclamation project similar to Maeda of this year. Long-term ace potential is likely Priellip or Soto. In AA you have Festa and Raya. In A+ ball you have Lewis Matthews and Morris. Then we have a load of new draftees to add to the pitching depth. I still have high hopes for Canterino. Again there is no top 100 prospect, but the pitching depth is much more than the sum of their parts and I think there will be several arms that come out of the system. I guess where I get frustrated is many think the front office should be held accountable for some of the issues of Ownership. That is a difficult question, in some aspects I can understand it, in other aspects I just don't. If you want a free wielding front office on contracts I would tell you to change your fandom to San Diego, Mets or Yankees currently because the Twins ownership will likely never allow that. Even still, the Mets and Padres still show you can spend all the money in the world and still not get the performance you want and we also have our own issues with the Correa contract. Ultimately this is a water cooler, and it is here more than anything to voice frustration not to dole out accolades :) Just look at the 9 articles on this website with a negative tone against the Twins and management after the deadline. There have been 2 so far with positive spin - and 2 with positive analysis on the Twins current win streak. Even still I guess I see a much rosier picture than most here and willing to give the organization additional time. My guess is ownership is also pretty pleased - but that is much more difficult to judge. The fans are still showing up - most likely will win the division and have had 2 great drafts in a row. I think the front office can sell their vision. Will the water cooler share it . . . As of now that is a negative. Correa was a major gamble and I think the major determination on the front office, if he continues to struggle, the noose may begin to tighten. Maybe they can get out of the contract, I think Correa will likely perform to historical norms, but it is worth keeping an eye on. This was a contract most were happy about, but it could be the front offices doom. It was a big gamble and risk with such a large contract.

Its been a win-win, currently Lopez is at 2.3 WAR, and Arreaz at 4.4 WAR. Arreaz is continuing his usual late season fade. His current OPS of august is .621 and his July was .847. Luis had a .438 BA for April and .406 for June- currently at .276 for the 7 games in August. I have stated the most likely outcome is that their WAR's become fairly close by the end of the year. The marlins valued Luzardo Perez, and Alcantara more than Lopez. Both have effectively outperformed expectations. The fact Lopez signed a reasonable extension with the Twins is what likely made this a win overall for the Twins. Arreaz appears willing to test free agency and after this year is only 2 years away. More than anything I think Arraez benefitted from 2 things. The first being his work out regime with Nelson Cruz is huge. He comes out of the start of the season like a beast. He has done this for the last 3-4 seasons. Secondly the change to the NL where teams didn't have as much experience with him I think was greatly advantageous. It is similar to the affect to Rogers going to San Diego. He had lots of success early, then due to overuse and teams becoming more familiar he declined rapidly. Arraez is a very good hitter, but the overperformance so far has occurred early in the season. If I were a team I would let him play to the ALL Star break, give him a month off to restart his work out regimen with Cruz and see if he can finish the season off strong. My gut feel is Minnesota will get much more WAR from Lopez than Arraez with the Marlins. It will be interesting to watch both players. This also doesn't include the fact that the Twins look like they may be able to replace Arraez production with similar if not higher slugging from Julien.

We can always take the Angels approach . . . Steady Eddie and give as many opportunities at the apple and waiting for something magical to happen is likely our best opportunity.

Kuechel is a success if he can be an innings eater and give our other starters a break if they need it down the stretch. Rotate around. Also Keuchel got out of some tough spots, expect a few more runs and crooked numbers to go up on the board when he pitches. If the Twins can go .500 ball in his starts its a huge win. You don't have to win them all, just win enough. If we can win 2/3 between Gray, Maeda and Lopez's starts in the rotation down the stretch we should be in great shape.

If he does that he is a top 10 prospect possibly top 5 :). I am happy with a top 20 to 25 prospect and in AA by next year.

Chpettit - I agreed with most of what you said I just want to look at the depth and who I see as star level prospects. Currently Julien's bat is a star if he can keep it going. A healthy Lewis is also a star, and Brooks Lee is well on his way to being a potential All Star. Can we hit on another Julien - with a Prato, Williams, or other AAA player - possibly but one of your gripes and others is they have to be given the opportunity. If Kiriloff can stay healthy that that is another potential star, Then can a Miranda or Larnach get over their recent struggles and become stars. Wallner could be a star but that is questionable. Most likely 1-2 of those become stars, if 3 or more become stars this team is set with the other prospects being fine if they are league average. Then we come to Jenkins, Winokur and other bats in the system that are still progressing up to the majors. The pitching pipeline has lots of potential #3 pitchers especially in the lower ranks. There is value in finding those types of players its why Cleveland has been as successful as they have been. We do need a star pitcher to come up through the system. That is either a prospect outperforming or a Priellip, Raya, Soto . . . or a possibly healthy Matt Canterino (has the arm talent- hasnt shown the health) taking that mantle. Yes lets hope for a good end of the season and some (any :) ) success in the post season.

San Diego and the Mets have owners that have gone all out on payroll. The Astros tanked and had 1st and early picks in most of the early 2010's to mid 2015 2016. they went through over 5-6 years of putrid baseball to build a foundation for what they have. I can tell you most cards fans are not happy with their season or their future. With an aging Goldshmidt and middle aged Arenado they are hoping their strong farm system can reload the organization. Angels and Mets fans are frustrated too. Its a tough game. Of the 4 teams you mentioned only 1 fan base is happy right now and the Angels are destined to a decade long rebuild now. We do all have various views, I just think the odds of the Twins effectively find another management situation on the level of Tampa Bay is slim to none. Their margin of error could also fall by the wayside. The 2022 and 2023 drafts will determine in the next few years the future success of the organization and my feelings it is a good front office. If they provide a solid foundation for future stars and pitching pipeline, it will give more than enough runway for the Front office (similar to what happened to Atlanta, San Diego ect) Those teams were built from exceptional drafting. We appear to have ample prospects in AAA to continue to give enough bats for the near term for success. We have some trade chips, and we have a solid rotation for the next couple years to build around (Lopez, Ryan, Ober) and I still think an elite closer in Duran. We should hope for a great end of the year and specifically for Maeda and Gray, which could allow for additional high round draft picks in the 2024 draft. The 2019 and 2021 drafts were both exceptional drafts even if they were semi raided to build up the current mlb team. The 2022 and 2023 drafts look even better currently.

Keuchel out there throwing mid 80's fastballs and slower helped the strategy. Arizona is also 3rd in the league in total steals and its a strategy they have been more willing to take. However you bring up a valid point and a likely strategy we will face as the season progresses.

The Astros got to their position by tanking for 3-4 years. Based on that you wouldn't allow the current organization to switch philosophies and tank. Dodgers are a good organization but also have a big market team. Braves and Tampa Bay I think are the best examples of what we should try to emulate. I actually think the Twins are on the right track especially if ownership continues to loosen the purse strings. I understand the philosophy of trying to hit the next best thing, the reality is likely though that we would most likely end up like the mid to late 90's Twins with no hope or future and be begging for the Falvey Levine days.

It becomes an option if Buxton thinks he can do better in another organization. However I didn't realize he had a no trade clause til 2026.

Chpettit, those are valid arguments, however, stating they should run a better team and spend more money is not a Front office or manager decision. That is ownership. What the topic was is that many wanted the Front office and manager fired. Should they be fired if the even have moderate success this year even being constrained by Ownership. I would argue the front office is outperforming the structure that ownership has established. Now we are not the Rays. However we are also not Detroit, Kansas City, White Sox, Colorado, Oakland or Anaheim. I don't know what the answer is. It feels very similar to the constant arguments of the Iowa Hawkeyes and whether they should get rid of Kirk Ferentz for only be a steady performer with an outlier season ever 4-5 seasons. You can make the change but odds are you won't find something better than what you currently had, just look at the Cornhuskers who have continually tried to find the next best thing to turn around that program and continue to fall further and further behind. Also who would want to take over a Front Office position that just got fired after winning the division? Those are high expectations that many would not want to take on and you would likely not get the best candidates.

I would think they would trade Kepler for excess value, and then hope Larnach can begin to figure it out. Wallner seems to be locking in the LF position, but we have seen sophmore slumps before. Center and RF would be question marks. For me this comes down to 3 decisions the Twins will need to make. 1. Buxton - do you keep him or trade him. With his contract and previous performance this is still an excess value proposition but if he has another poor year the value begins to degrade fairly rapidly. If they want out of the contract and move in a different direction this offseason will be the time. 2. Kepler - if you trade Buxton most likely I think you would keep Kepler for stability for 1 more year and see what happens in CF and that Wallner continues to perform. 3. Polanco- I would think the Twins would not pick up the contract, as the depth in the infield is stacked and I don't see a proposition of being able to then trade him for excess value unless he has a bananas end of the season and post season similar to an Eddie Rosario with the Braves.

The buyout is 1 million, so the question is will the Twins pay an additional $9 million and I would say yes. Now whether they would then trade him or keep as the RF I don't know. If Kepler performs down the stretch though and gives the team a 2 or 3 war for the season it would be a no brainer to pick up the option. There would be excess value in that contract. I think Kepler is showing a much better approach at the plate and with much more confidence. Polanco would be the other question, is would think the Twins also exercise his option as well even though I am not sure we have a spot for him. The Twins will have some decisions to make this offseason.

Pagan, Kepler, Jeffers are giving the Twins more cover on keeping an underperforming Gallo (who did get 2 walks yesterday). Gallo is an interesting case, he plays good defense has been willing to play wherever the Twins need him, but the bat which started out decent has completely reverted back to the last 2 years performance. Until Kiriloff gets back or expanded rosters I don't expect anything to happen with Gallo. The organization is hoping his bat will begin to heat up with the rest of them. Even still the Gallo experiment has not worked. I would prefer if the Twins gave Williams or Prato a chance however we have seen many prospects struggle on their first call ups to the big leagues. With Lewis, Larnach possibly Miranda also being other options that can be added to the big league team. We seem to have plenty of bat options to supplement the big league team, the relief pitching corps seems less full with only Funderburk seeming like a possible option. As much as stating a division winner should win a series or two, we will be going against either Houston or the Blue Jays in the playoffs. Those are both very good teams, with much larger salaries than the Twins (Blue Jays 227 million, $248 million for the Astros). As a small market team we are always playing with 1 hand behind our back. In order to win, like the Rays and continually be a strong team we have to excel well beyond the current norms, for me that is the draft. The Twins will have to consistently find more prospects than other teams and develop them for prospects for the team and trade capital.

I had thoughted of starting this specific topic. I think for the broad base, its what have you done for me lately, and getting to the playoffs, if they finish strong and a playoff win or even a series win will satisfy most of the fans and some of the Contributors on the board. With that being said, I think there are few individuals, that want a complete overhaul, and even a series win or a win in the playoffs would not placate their views. For the most part those that have been most vocal have been fairly quiet on this 5 game winning stretch because this winning stretch doesn't help their point of view. They are waiting for the failure and will jump again. They will state this was a flawed team and we could have one it all if we had done more at the deadline or not signed Gallo and got a right handed bat and Relief pitcher to start the season. They will continue to attack the weak points and failures of trades, even though I would argue the Twins have gotten more from trades than what they traded away. I like what the organization has done. They have been robbing Peter to pay Paul, by trading draft picks and prospects to supplement the MLB team. Over the 7 years they have put a pretty respectable team out most years. They generally have not tanked a season even though I think they should have. The 2022 and 2023 draft are adding a lot of solid prospects to the organization even with some fast risers such as Lee. At this trade deadline they were effectively in no mans land, with only a few teams selling and those that were having high demands. I hope the Twins continue to win, and I have been saying for a while I felt the bats would begin to heat up. They were beginning to do the small things, and play more small ball which is allowing for more mistakes to happen and are starting to capitalize with men on base. I hope lightening strikes and the Twins would win it all, but being realistic, there are 4 stacked teams - Rangers, Orioles, Rays and Atlanta. The AL is going to be brutal. Currently in a playoff scenario the Twins are looking at playing Toronto or Houston. Neither is an easy road and this was never a year the Twins were truly going to be a contender most likely. Hopefully the Twins continue on the hot streak and give more games for me to cheer on with my son. That's what it is all about.

Its much more pleasant on this board with the Twins winning. Pablo continues to grab a firmer handle on being the Twins Ace of the future. The bat improvement has been across the board other than Gallo and Buxton and Correa, This game showed a bit of improvement 2 walks by Gallo and 2 hits for Correa including the home run. Correa has had some improvement then some poor games. Let see if he can string a couple good games together. If Correa and Buxton begin to heat up this becomes a dangerous team.

Walker Jenkins continues with a hot bat. Winokur continues to show he can hit at an advanced level for a high school kid. Jenkins should get promoted to A ball, if the Twins want to be aggressive can send straight to high A ball like Texas did with Langford. That would be extremely aggressive especially with a high school player. I am waiting to see if a few of the pitchers will get some action. I am most curious to see are the college kids; Hall, Stoffal, Dougherty, Dunn, Langenberg, Pasqualotto, Lee, Hamilton and Bragg. I skipped a few but to me these are the most promising of the college picks.

Looks better than the lineup Detroit is throwing out there today. Plus if get an opportune moment with men on base, you have 2 good hitters to pinch hit.

Got close to the Twins. Cleveland still showing they are at least trying to compete, and will be without Ramirez for a bit.

Even at the lowest levels of baseball, baseball is 90% mental and having a good approach. Right now Correa is off, but not hopeless, we have seen many players go through slumps like this before and bounce back. Correa himself, Bellinger and many others. Hopefully he can figure it out as we wind down the season. However, Kepler and Jeffers look to be getting much more comfortable, and with Julien and Wallner that is starting to form a decent core of batters to build around for the rest of the season. It is entertaining to as one poster mentioned on here the "whiplash" of fans opinions on this team and organization. Just a week ago their was major concerns on the ownership, management, coaches and direction of the team and organization. A week later after 5-1 start someone of the demonstrative concern has begun to quell, but more just seems to be in the background seeming to be waiting (dare I say hoping) for another downward stretch from the team. As a whole though it was a very good week for the team and organization. Here is my highlights of the week.. 1. Pablo Lopez beginning to assert himself as the Twins future ace. 2. Wallner and Julien looking like 2 very good young bats. 3. The minor leagues, continues to pump out mid level prospects and making them look like elite hitters. Add in the most recent draft where Jenkins, Keaschall and Winokur are all performing very well in their first week of professional baseball. SSS away, both Jenkins and Winokur are performing very well for high school players. We will see if they get promoted to A ball here shortly. We are still waiting on the pitchers and based on previous years handling they will likely slow play them letting some get their feet wet and others working with them to get ready for the 2024 season. The 2023 draft has the potential to be a franchise changing draft. 3-4 very good bats, and plenty arms, some with very high ceilings to work with. 4. Lee getting promoted to AAA. On track to potentially be in the big leagues next year, and we will see if the team starts him at the MLB level to try an get an additional pick if he is rookie of the year. 5. Bounce back start by Gray and continued dominance by Maeda. For individuals concerned about not trading Gray or Maeda, the Twins not only are continuing to benefit from their performances, they both continue maintain in Grays case and continue to increase the chances that the Twins may be able to either receive draft compensation or another 1 year on a qualifying offer. It is questionable whether Maeda would accept the qualifying offer or not, but he is currently performing at a very high level.

All we need from Keuchel is 5-7 starts, even 1 was worthwhile to give Ryan a break. if needed he can give any other pitcher a breather if they need it. He is merely an innings filler at this point that can hopefully leave you in a position to win the game. Ultimately though other than Verlander, or Sherzer that is what we would have been looking for at the deadline, and we didn't have to give up a prospect.

I don't know, the last year from Knoblauch where he couldn't throw to 1st base was pretty bad. Conseco getting hit on the head from a pop fly. Lets not go hyperbole here, but he is a bad defensive player currently, with as good as his bat is, hopefully they can work more on the defense.

Right now if Gallo can give us just good defense at first it should be enough with our pitching depth and our other bats heating up. However, as a bat, Gallo is currently a black hole. I am all for letting him go, and even replacing now with one of the rookies, put Gallo on the injured list and give us 10 days to try it out.