Greggory Masterson

In basketball, a saying goes, “There’s only one ball,” meaning that only one player can shoot at a time. In baseball, there’s only one second base. Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco, one of the Twins' best hitters over the past decade, is due to return from a hamstring injury after his upcoming rehab assignment. It'll be a welcome addition to a lineup that has struggled to score runs in 2023. There's just one minor issue—the incumbent second baseman has been their best hitter this season. Among Twins with at least 150 plate appearances, Edouard Julien leads the team in OPS, and he has been filling in at second base in Polanco's absence. For much of the season, Julien and Polanco have been sharing the position, in a way, as Julien has been with the MLB team during Polanco's numerous stints on the injured list, only to be demoted to AAA upon his return. That charade should be at its end. There needs to be room on this roster for Polanco and Julien, who represent two of the top five bats in this lineup. The issue is figuring out how the two can coexist. Polanco has been the team's primary second baseman since 2021 after holding down shortstop for half of a decade. His shortstop days are behind him, and Carlos Correa is a fixture there anyway. Julien has been playing second base exclusively since the beginning of the 2022 season. He's frankly not been good defensively, but the organization has been committed to keeping him there, for better or worse. The Miami Marlins have played four second basemen simultaneously this season; it's doable. A few ways to handle this situation stand out, but none appear as a clear choice. Demote Julien This decision would be tough to justify, but it's the solution if the team refuses to move either off of second base, even temporarily. Polanco has had half a dozen lower body injuries in the last year, so it might not be long until Julien would have another free run at second base. Of note, the Twins' have demoted Julien three times this season, and the next would be his fourth. Players can only be demoted five times per season before being exposed to waivers. Polanco and/or Julien DH This option is almost not worth discussing until there are firm signs of Byron Buxton returning to the outfield—to me, that will require seeing him out there in-game. So long as Buxton is active and the everyday designated hitter, there won't be regular opportunities to DH either of the second basemen. Polanco or Julien Play Third Base There is a current vacancy at third base. Royce Lewis suffered an intercostal injury and will likely be out until late August or September, leaving an opening at third base. The Twins recalled Jose Miranda to fill the gap, but he seemed to be on borrowed time with his current production prior to being placed on the injured list July 15th. Moving one of the two infielders to the left side of the infield may be a solution. Polanco has some experience at third base, having played 77 innings there in 2016 and 86 more back during 2011 in Rookie ball. It's not much experience, but it's reasonable to ask for someone who was a big league shortstop for five years. However, it has been seven years since he's played third base in-game, and his body has been consistently beaten up for years, even before his trips to the injured list, which could make the team less comfortable asking the move of him. On the other hand, Julien has more recent experience at the hot corner. He played 189 innings in Class A during the 2021 season and 65 games there in college at Auburn as a junior in 2019. The team has preferred to keep him at second, partly due to his arm strength after his 2019 Tommy John surgery. It would be helpful if one of the two could fill in semi-regularly in Lewis's absence. It would also lead to a pretty subpar infield defense for the team, but that may be outweighed by the value of both bats being in the lineup. Julien Plays First Base and/or Left Field Julien does have additional experience outside of second and third base. He has 181 innings at first base and 119 innings in left field in the minors, all of which came in 2021 between the two Class A levels. He also played seven games in right field at Auburn. It's not much at all, but at least some experience. If the team was more comfortable with Julien at first base, Alex Kirilloff could play in the outfield the days Julien plays first, or vice versa. It does add another left-handed corner outfielder to the Twins' pile, which is becoming absurdly large as-is, but it's an option. Julien could also bounce around all of those positions, similar to early-career Luis Arraez, but with lesser defensive chops than Arraez, who won't be winning any Gold Gloves. Trade One I don't see this happening, but it's worth noting. Given Polanco's recent health issues, his value is unclear, so there's no guarantee they get anything of worth for him. Julien would fetch a good return, but he still has six years of team control after this year, and it's difficult to justify sending off your top hitter to make room for a 30-year-old with questionable health in a year that the team's hitting has been in the gutter. We may never even get to the point where anything needs to happen. If there's one thing that Twins fans have learned in recent years, it's that injuries create solutions to these problems in ways we can't expect. How would you handle this situation? View full article

Rereading that part, I see how it might be unclear. First, though, I tried to communicate that that is the position easiest to make a move, given that Taylor can just be moved to a reserve role where he’s better suited. What I meant by backlog is in the outfield overall. If Taylor is a bench player, that means that at minimum one of the current corner guys will need to be the corresponding move, and then you still need to deal with the Wallner/Larnach logjam.

You may be understanding what I mean by straightforward, so I apologize if I wasn’t clear enough. You’re not the only one who did so, so forgive me picking on you specifically, but in your original comment, I noticed that you said that the answer isn’t straightforward before listing off a number of moves needed to justify adding Goldschmidt. Because there are a ton of considerations with a move like that. A straightforward move would be “Luke Voit is our first baseman and not good. We have no high minors prospects at first base. We’ll trade for Goldschmidt and DFA Voit, or trade him for a MiLB reliever.” Adding Goldschmidt requires more permanent decisions than those two. You relocate Kirilloff. You make permanent decisions on both Gallo and Kepler. You assess Wallner and Larnach to decide whether you’ll continue to block them or give them a lane. Heck, it probably even plays into the decision as to where Julien goes when Polanco gets back, because two of this options are left and first. The point of this article was to lay out the complicated decisions that go into improving at each position, because there are things at play beyond the actual hypothetical trades. Yes, I’d like to see meaningful moves, and this article isn’t excusing them not happening or saying that they shouldn’t happen.

As we approach the 2023 trade deadline, the Twins’ offense has left much to be desired. The deadline presents an opportunity to add thump to the lineup, but the path to acquiring those boosts is unclear. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Entering play on Saturday, the Twins had the 20th-best OPS in MLB, but they’ve managed to stay around a .500 record because of their excellent pitching. It’s easy to see how pumping the offense up to even a bit better than average could lead to a good team down the stretch. However, getting those additional bats is difficult, given the players currently on the roster. Now, I am not saying that the current players deserve to remain on the roster; the only two Twins positions that rank as a top-10 OPS by position are second base (9th) and designated hitter (3rd) in the league. The issue is that bringing in an additional bat generally necessitates either the displacement of a veteran or the further blocking of a prospect—or both. I wrote last month about how the team has yet to make an active, no-takebacks roster move. Furthermore, the only bat the team has bought at the deadline was backup catcher Sandy Leon, so we don’t have much precedent to go off of. Below is a position-by-position breakdown of the difficulty in bringing in a new hitter, starting with the worst-performing offensive position and working down. Centerfield—28th (and DH—3rd) Michael A. Taylor has done an admirable job holding down centerfield defensively, but if the team wants to bolster the offense, center is the most glaring weakness. Obviously, the answer could be as simple as moving Byron Buxton from DH to center, but we have yet to get any indication that the Twins are willing to do so, given Buxton’s health. Specifically, the team could sacrifice defense for offense if they wanted to and shift Taylor to a reserve role. A move for a right-handed centerfielder like Adam Duvall, who has hit lefties well, could be a natural fit. Duvall is neither a star nor a good defensive outfielder, but he will at least stand in center, as opposed to Max Kepler. We'll discuss Kepler and his cronies later on, but it's worth mentioning now that the Twins have a significant backlog in the outfield, and bringing in a new centerfielder will add to that. If, somehow, Buxton returns to the outfield, the question would be about filling a DH spot, but I’m not getting my hopes up. As it stands, a Duvall-like move seems to be the most promising, though not exciting. Third Base—24th Jose Miranda entered the year as the top third baseman in the organization, but he currently has more plate appearances in AAA St. Paul than in Minnesota. Since his recent call-up to replace Royce Lewis, who will miss more than a month with an oblique injury, he has not impressed, nor has he been an everyday player. A motley crew of Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Donovan Solano will play the days he doesn’t start. There would be an opportunity at third base to add a bat. That is, there would be an opportunity to add a bat if Royce Lewis wasn’t expected back this year. It’s a complex argument to add at the spot where your recently-graduated #1 prospect is supposed to reside, especially because the outfield seems off-limits to him this year. Corner Outfield—26th (LF) & 19th (RF) The corners have been the subject of much consternation, hemming, and hawing this year. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler have held their spots in left and right, respectively, and given their veteran status, they have been treated like stalwarts. The situation could be aided by someone like Duvall as a right-handed bat to take the load off against lefties (I promise—last time that I’ll mention Duvall), but that doesn’t completely solve the problem. Further complicating matters are young corner outfield bats Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner. Even if one of Kepler or Gallo were jettisoned to make room for the new bat, the prospects in their mid-20s would continue to be blocked, much to many fans’ dismay. The team could always just let go of one or both of the veterans, but there’s no great assurance that the young bats will be any better, compared to the prospect of bringing in an established veteran. It’s a difficult situation to navigate, but that’s why Derek Falvey gets paid the big bucks. Catcher—20th There are few ways to improve the offense with a bigger bat catcher. First, ignoring the incumbents, bringing in a catcher with a big bat isn’t a reliable strategy. Catchers, for the most part, don’t hit, and bringing in someone who can hit well and play catcher is going to cost an arm and a leg. Personnel-wise, it’s also tricky. The current duo—Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers—have handled the pitching staff well. Vazquez just signed a three-year, $30M contract, and it’d be difficult to move on from him so early, even with his struggles at the plate. Jeffers looks like the future catcher, with an improved arm, solid framing, and a respectable .792 OPS for a catcher. It’d be surprising to see another catcher brought in. Shortstop—15th The only reason to include shortstop on this list is for consistency. Carlos Correa isn’t getting replaced. The only feasible way that a shortstop is brought in is as a Kyle Farmer replacement—hits lefties (hopefully better than Farmer) and is a legit shortstop. Farmer may get lost in roster churn around this time, but Lewis can also backup short, so it’s really not worth considering anyone unless a deal hits them in the face. First Base—12th First base has been primarily handled by Kirilloff, Solano, and Gallo this season, and it’s been alright. As much as fans would love a Paul Goldschmidt trade—or any other big bat, first-base-only player—it would lead to a conundrum like the moves in the corner outfield. Kirilloff was the organization’s top prospect a couple of years ago, so they would hypothetically want to keep him in the lineup, likely in the outfield if a new plod was traded for. That would further jam the corners and require additional moves and prospect blocking. One wrinkle here is the health of Kirilloff’s wrist. In recent weeks, he has shown less ability to drive the ball, despite his continued excellence in putting the bat to the ball. If his wrist isn’t healthy again, playing time at first base would open up, and the team would want to bring in someone who can produce in the power position. Second Base—9th The Twins already have too many second basemen. If and when Jorge Polanco returns from injury, they’ll be in a position where two of their top hitters—the other being Edouard Julien —will have only played second base this year. They need to sort that out before they add someone else to the mix. The Twins would be well-suited to bring in a bat or two somewhere. The issue is that there’s no simple way to do so. “Established” veterans will be removed or moved to reduced roles, and there are young players who deserve full-time work. It's going to be the type of difficult decision that we have yet to see this season. As of yet, there’s no indication of how new hitters would fit, but hopefully, we’ll find out soon. View full article

Thanks for this--I had notes on De Leon and everything, but it looks like I just skipped over them as I was compiling this analysis.

The Twins had a fairly active offseason, by their standards. Now that we’ve reached the midway point, let’s check how their additions are faring. Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports The Twins traded for three MLB players, signed four MLB deals, and brought on an additional three players on minor league deals that have contributed to this year’s team. When evaluating this team, it’s worth taking stock of how the offseason moves are looking. I’ve listed the ten acquisitions below, from most expensive (total salary committed) to least expensive. Relevant statistics include plate appearances or innings pitched, OPS+ or ERA+ (less than 100 is worse than league average; above is better), and wins above replacement as calculated for both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. Carlos Correa – Signed for $200M over six years 303 PA, 90 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR The $200 million man has yet to impress. He’s on pace to have the worst offensive year of his career. His defense at shortstop has been good, but it hasn’t been Gold Glove-worthy, so getting too excited about what the rest of this contract holds is hard. There’s still a lot of time to turn it around, but the first eight percent has not been promising. Christian Vazquez – Signed for $30M over three years 180 PA, 68 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR Speaking of multi-year deals that could be more promising, Vazquez has not impressed as the primary catcher. He’s also in the midst of his worst offensive year since 2018. However, the pitchers seem to like him, and his defense is still above average. Still, it’s getting more difficult by the day to justify his black hold in this putrid lineup starting over a superior hitter in Ryan Jeffers. Joey Gallo – Signed for $11M over one year 207 PA, 113 OPS+, 0.4 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR Gallo got a torrid start but has regressed heavily in the last two months. It’s difficult to be too upset over a one-year flyer signing, and Gallo has filled in at multiple positions when needed. Still, the signing has also restricted Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner’s path to big league playing time. Maybe Gallo will get hot again soon and make the signing worth it, but it’s not looking good right now. Kyle Farmer – Traded for Casey Legumina, making $5.59M, final year of arbitration in 2024 167 PA, 87 OPS+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR Farmer has performed as expected. He’s competently played all four infield positions and stood in left field several times. The salary and prospect traded for him make this acquisition an even value. Of note, he’s been a plus hitter against lefties, as was expected. Pablo Lopez – Traded for Luis Arraez, making $5.45M, extended for $74M over four years 96 IP, 96 ERA+, 0.8 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR The Twins traded from a perceived position of strength—left-handed corner bats—for pitching, and it’s difficult to separate how Lopez is performing from Arraez’s chase for .400 in Miami. To his credit, Lopez has been a solid-to-great pitcher, depending on your belief in his underlying metrics. The acquisition hasn’t been a win, but Lopez is certainly doing his part. Michael A. Taylor – Traded for Evan Sisk, Steven Cruz. Making $4.5M 221 PA, 83 OPS+, 0.6 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR Taylor has been thrust into an everyday job, and unless someone else comes along—Byron Buxton included—he’ll be the first option in center field each day. He’s hit around his career average, which isn’t good, and his defense has been slipping a bit, which is unsurprising for the 32-year-old. If the expectation was that he was merely a backup, the trade looks much better than if he was expected to start 120 games in center field. Donovan Solano – Signed for $2M over one year 220 PA, 115 ERA+, 0.8 bWAR, 0.6 fWAR Where would this team be without Donnie Barrels? Solano was signed during spring training as an additional platoon bat against lefties as a first baseman or DH. He’s been one of the team’s most consistent hitters thus far and has held his own against both righties and lefties, playing second and third base when needed. It’s a great use of $2M as a bench player, which is what he should currently be—but isn’t. Willi Castro – Signed for $1.8M (MiLB deal) 191 PA, 92 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR Where would this team be without Willi Rafael Castro? Signed to a minor league deal, Castro broke camp with the team as a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency with the ability to play every position. He’s been a slightly below-average hitter but is 12-for-12 stealing bases, almost carried the team offensively for a few weeks, and provides excellent roster utility. He’s a great asset as a 13th man but, like Solano, is playing more than he should. Brock Stewart – Signed MiLB deal 25.2 IP, 610 ERA+, 1.5 bWAR, 0.7 fWAR Where would this team be without Beef Stew? The minor league signee has been the best reliever on the team statistically, and he’s been number two in the bullpen hierarchy behind Jhoan Duran. His emergence has been terrific and has rewarded the team for taking an albeit low-risk chance on him. Oliver Ortega – Claimed off waivers, MiLB deal 4 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR, 0.0 fWAR Where would this—never mind. I included Ortega because he is the only other player who has played for the Twins this year added in the offseason. He was claimed off waivers and now has a chance to get work in an injury-riddled bullpen. Will he stick as a low-mid leverage arm? Who knows. EDIT: Jose De Leon – MiLB deal 17.1 IP, 93 ERA+, 0.0 bWAR, 0.2 fWAR De Leon, like Stewart and Ortega, signed a minor league deal in the offseason, but he had emerged as a potential competent middle or long relief option. He fit the team as the seventh or eighth guy out of the pen with some flexibility in use, but he will be undergoing Tommy John Surgery and will miss the remainder of 2023. He was an adequate find that will need to be replaced, likely by high minors pitching prospects. In review, there’s a bit of a pattern here—if you can call ten players’ results a pattern. The three most expensive free agent veterans (Correa, Vazquez, Gallo) have not carried their weight thus far. The three lowest-paid free agents (Solano, Castro, Stewart) have been outperforming expectations and have emerged as vital parts of this team—which may be damning with faint praise. The three players traded for (Farmer, Lopez, Taylor) have performed about as expected, though, in Lopez’s case, the cost of Luis Arraez clouds that, and Taylor has been playing more than expected. Do you disagree with any of these assessments? How do you feel about the job that the front office did? View full article

I gathered information on this as well, but I probably won’t publish it until the off-season, when it’s more relevant. They’ve done pretty well with off-season trades and have been more successful in bringing in MLB talent that way.

Hold onto that thought. I’m working on finishing up a similar article going over the deadline buys (11 of them, if I recall), and there have definitely been more wins in those; even trades like the Dozier trade could be considered a win.

The Dyson trade was probably the hardest to grade. Neither team got anything, but Dyson was a borderline all star reliever and the prospects had value at the time. There was an opportunity cost there, because those prospects could have been traded for a different high-leverage arm. The Dyson trade stopped them from getting someone else.

Good catch, thank you. It’s also why Steve Hajjar never reached Baltimore, I’d say.

How have Derek Falvey and Thad Levine fared buying at the deadline? As the 2023 Trade Deadline approaches and the Twins sit in first place, let’s look at every time the current front office has bought at the deadline. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Regarding things like making trades, no one wins every time, not even the Dodgers and Rays (see Yordan Álvarez and Joe Ryan, respectively). However, a good team wins their trades more often than they lose them. Deadline buys are especially complicated because a team almost always knowingly trades away valuable long-term pieces for short-term rewards. Deadline trades have been hot on Twins fans’ minds for the last month after Tyler Mahle got shut down for the season to get Tommy John surgery and Jorge López’s struggles reached a head. I, your humble narrator, have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 (when Falvey and Levine were brought on) that involved at least one MLB player and was not for cash considerations or players to be named later. You, my only friends, can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a buy near the deadline. These trades occurred in 2017, 2019, and 2022, as the team was in contention in each of those three years. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information was gathered as a snapshot on June 23, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the full picture isn’t available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2019 Sam Dyson trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Dyson was worth -0.3 bWAR, but the players traded for him have amounted to -0.7 bWAR. No one truly won that trade, value-wise. Perhaps more importantly, the Twins paid an opportunity cost to acquire him, as he was their main addition that deadline. Trading for him stopped the team from trading a similar package for a different reliever. However, the stats do provide some background. Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst. 1. 7/27/19: Minnesota acquires Sergio Romo (42.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 0.4 bWAR), Chris Vallimont (did not reach Minnesota) from Miami for Lewin Diaz (343 PA, 55 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota. Romo was one of two relievers acquired at the 2019 deadline, and he would be a mainstay in the back of the Twins bullpen for two years, as he was brought back for 2020 before having his option declined. Vallimont was waived in 2022 and is currently in Baltimore’s system. Diaz had some promise but failed to hit enough as a first baseman to stick in Miami 2. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Michael Fulmer (24.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Detroit for Sawyer Gipson-Long* (has not reached Detroit), +0.5 bWAR for Minnesota. Fulmer was a quality setup man down the stretch in 2022, though the Twins did not resign him in the offseason. He’s struggled pitching for the Cubs since then. Gipson-Long is starting games at AA in Detroit’s system, so there’s time for this trade to swing back into Detroit’s favor, but it was a solid enough trade for now. 3. 7/27/17: Minnesota acquires Gabriel Moya (42.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Arizona for John Ryan Murphy (299 PA, 62 OPS+), -0.2 bWAR), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota John Ryan Murphy was most infamous in Minnesota for being the return in the trade that sent Aaron Hicks to New York. Moya was a decent reliever for a couple of years but was designated for assignment in 2019. 4. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Sandy León (65 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from Cleveland for Ian Hamilton (did not reach Cleveland), -0.3 bWAR for Minnesota. A simple veteran-for-veteran swap sent journeyman catcher León to Minnesota as catcher depth and Hamilton to Cleveland as reliever depth. León didn’t hit a lick, but the pitching staff appreciated him, and Hamilton never got called up prior to his release in 2022. 5. 7/24/17: Minnesota acquires Jaime Garcia (6.2 IP, 115 ERA+, 0.1 bWAR), Anthony Recker (did not reach Minnesota) from Atlanta for Huascar Ynoa* (122.1 IP, 85 ERA+, 1.1 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota In an effort to “go for it,” the Twins acquired the aging starter to fortify the rotation, sending over the 19-year-old prospect. He made one start. Ynoa had a solid 17-start stretch for Atlanta in 2021 but has not had a significant effect otherwise and is currently recovering from Tommy John. It’s hard to separate this trade from the one that sent Garcia away a week later, but the first trade wasn’t bad in itself. 6. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Jorge López* (49.2 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR) from Baltimore for Juan Rojas* (has not reached Baltimore), Cade Povich* (has not reached Baltimore), Juan Nuñez* (has not reached Baltimore), Yennier Cano* (41.2 IP, 150 ERA+, 2.0 bWAR), -2.2 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins swung a deal for what was arguably the best reliever traded at the 2022 deadline in López, along with his 2.5 years of team control. However, he was rocky down the stretch in 2022, and after a hot start to 2023, the wheels have come off. Povich, Rojas, and Nuñez are all in the minors, but Cano has emerged as arguably the best reliever in baseball thus far in 2023 for the Orioles 7. 7/31/19: Minnesota acquires Sam Dyson (11.1 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from San Francisco for Prelander Berroa (did not reach San Francisco), Jaylin Davis (68 PA, 31 OPS+, -0.7 bWAR), Kai-Wei Teng* (has not reached San Francisco), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota. This trade was a mess for all involved, as Dyson pitched a poor 11 innings, had a season-ending injury, and was exposed as a domestic abuser shortly thereafter. Berroa has not reached the majors and was traded to Seattle in 2022, and Teng is still in San Francisco’s system as a 24-year-old at AA. Davis played poorly in limited action over three years and is now in his third minor league system since the trade. 8. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Tyler Mahle* (42 IP, 116 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Spencer Steer* (414 PA, 106 OPS+, 1.3 bWAR), Christian Encarnacion-Strand* (has not reached Cincinnati), Steven Hajjar (did not reach Cincinnati), -0.8 bWAR for Minnesota. Mahle was one of the top available starting pitchers and was brought in to bring stability to a rotation. However, his preexisting injuries in 2022 and eventual Tommy John (not necessarily related to his 2022 injuries) limited him to 42 moderately-effective innings as a Twin. Steer was blocked from reaching MLB at the time, and is beginning to stabilize in his second season. Encarnacion-Strand is one of the biggest power hitters in the minor leagues, at AAA currently and soon to debut, and Hajjar has been traded as player to be named later in a trade for Will Benson Do you agree with this order? How do you feel about the team’s performance buying at the deadline? Do you hope that the team buys again this year? View full article

There were some emotions Thursday night. Let’s talk about it. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray had a rough outing last Thursday night, even if the box score indicates he only gave up two runs. After escaping a fourth inning in which Gray labored through a single and three ugly walks, having given up only one run, manager Rocco Baldelli pulled the plug. As documented, Gray prefers to stay in games as long as possible. As visible on the Bally Sports North broadcast, the manager and pitcher disagreed. Viewers could see some level of emotion, seemingly from both parties, as they talked it over in the dugout. What does that mean for the relationship between a player and a manager or the team overall? Those who have read my writing, specifically those articles that delve into emotion, relationships, and psychology, will know that I don’t like to assume to understand everything between teammates and coaches in the clubhouse. However, this is an excellent time to examine conflict within a team and what interactions like the one Thursday can mean. When I use the term "Conflict," the definition that I like comes from a 2003 article by Carsten De Dreu and Laurie Weingart (it’s been cited 4,500 times, so apparently, a lot of other people like it too): “a process resulting from the tension between team members because of real or perceived differences.” Conflict as a concept is pretty self-evident, but a definition always helps and serves as a basis for analyzing different types of conflict. One way that conflict can be broken down is into task conflict and relationship conflict. This method of separating types of conflict is generally attributed to a 1995 article by Karen Jehn (cited over 6,000 times). It’s again self-explanatory: task conflict is conflict that arises out of performing tasks, and relationship conflict is conflict that arises out of interpersonal interactions. They’re both the natural result of people working together. Let’s take a look at task conflict first. Task conflict isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A complete lack of task conflict actually indicates issues like a lack of attention or commitment or even something like groupthink. When people work together, they’ll disagree on the best way to do whatever the group wants. For a baseball team, that disagreement can take the form of strategy and approach, for example. Players may have differing views with teammates and coaches about the best way to approach a plate appearance against a specific pitcher or even the right way to play the game (running out a grounder, etc.). If we use our imagination, we can see a disagreement between a hypothetical pitcher wanting to stay in the game for the fifth inning and a hypothetical manager wanting to pull his starter. Hey, I didn’t use names. Those are in your head. In that situation, it’s perfectly reasonable for a disagreement between the two to arise. It’s reasonable to expect a heated discussion. For the most part, there’s nothing wrong with that type of conflict. Opinionated competitors will have competitive opinions, and they’ll discuss them. I’d go so far as to say it’s healthy. Relationship conflict, on the other hand, is seldom healthy. Relationship conflict refers to things like annoyances over other people’s actions, disagreements over non-team-related manners, or lack of trust. It’s again natural because who hasn’t been annoyed by one of their coworker’s simple presence? However, it should be avoided. Within a baseball team, this type of conflict could be related to things like card games gone awry or a teammate eating animal crackers in the hotel bed. They could arise because one teammate is a general nuisance and pain in the tuchus. Relationship conflict can also emerge from task conflict. Let’s consider another hypothetical. Imagine one player, who is a notorious hothead, batting with a runner on second (who would hypothetically later in his career chase a .400 batting average for the Miami Marlins). Imagine that as the batter dug in, he noticed that the runner was not paying attention and was instead facing into the outfield. The two may have some understandable task conflict. The batter believed the runner should pay better attention, and conflict could ensue. However, if that conflict devolves into a shouting match, teammates start taking personal digs at each other, and feelings are hurt, it’s now relationship conflict (not saying that did happen). Relationship conflict isn’t productive. It’s a hindrance to good team functioning. It must be worked through for a team to perform optimally, and it takes time away from more important matters. Even if it sits dormant, it can cause future task conflict to devolve into relationship conflict. So, then, the key is keeping conflict on the task side. Saying things like “You are ugly!” takes players away from their objective—winning games—and refocuses their energy around interpersonal matters. By all accounts, there was visible task conflict in Thursday’s game, but that doesn’t mean there was also relationship conflict. In his postgame comments, Gray was clear in his position; he wants the opportunity to work through trouble and compete, and he understands that, at times, the manager will make decisions that go against those wishes because Baldelli sees it as the best thing to do. By his comments, at least, this seems to be firmly in the differences in beliefs category, and if it’s handled well, both parties can grow from it. Gray even acknowledged that the two likely need to discuss it. So long as it doesn’t become personal, that’s a good thing. On the other hand, if there is conflict bubbling under the surface and one or more parties reach the point that they have active disdain for the other as a person, then you’re talking about trouble. To be frank, you’re probably talking about trouble even before active disdain gets involved. Of course, I want to reiterate that I don’t know the actual status of their relationships. All I know is what a bunch of dry papers and books written by stuffy academics have taught me. So long as the episode between the manager and player avoids getting personal, even if it’s conflict that reappears a few times during the season, it’s not the end of the world. View full article

Call it the Great Sort, the purge, pruning the tree, culling the herd, whatever. It’s got to be coming soon, right? Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Over the offseason, a clear focus for Minnesota Twins decision-makers was improving on depth. With few exceptions, they retained everyone who was not an impending free agent. They brought in veteran depth pieces like Joey Gallo, Kyle Farmer, Michael A. Taylor, Donovan Solano, and several others on minor league contracts. Naturally, part of the rationale for this depth stockpile was to protect against injuries forcing the team to run out anemic lineups reminiscent of the atrocities seen in September 2022. Check out this analysis comparing the depth of this team against the worst-case scenarios of last fall. A second rationale for stockpiling depth was the number of question marks that the organization employed. They had eight potential corner outfielders, nine potential starting pitchers; you get the gist. In football, there’s a saying that “if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have one.” The same could be said about a baseball team. Even if you run a team that likes to mix it up positionally, if you have five first basemen, you don’t have one to put your trust in. Take the corner outfield situation as an example. Every candidate to occupy the corners had red flags coming into the year. Max Kepler had not hit in two years. Gallo was coming off a year in which he hit .169. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach both had prospect pedigree, but both had also missed most of the last two years with injury and struggled to find consistency when on the field. Matt Wallner is unproven. Nick Gordon’s second half of 2022 was encouraging, but difficult to fully trust. Willi Castro was a 25-year-old castoff. Kyle Garlick doesn’t hit righties well. There’s not much to hang your hat on in that group. However, with that many candidates, there’s hope that a few will emerge as mainstays. The beginning of 2023 can be treated as a sorting period in which the team can determine which players are here to stay. We’ve passed Memorial Day. There are fewer than 100 games left. The trade deadline is a little over a month away. The true team has to manifest soon, right? To this point, the team has yet to make a truly active decision on the roster. Players like Wallner and Eduoard Julien have gotten some run, Royce Lewis has been added to the active roster, and Brock Stewart has gotten high-leverage work. Jorge Alcala and Jose Miranda are in St. Paul. But no decisions have been made. Instead, to date, except for Miranda and Alcala, injuries have dictated the roster. Even with Alcala, the demotion was related to his recovery from injury. Miranda lost his starting job, yes, but he was the worst hitter on the team and was the victim of a roster crunch when Farmer returned from injury, and he would likely have also been moved to make room for Lewis after his return from injury. You may be reading this and thinking of the fans’ flavor of the week, Wallner, and persona non grata of the week, Kepler. Sure, they qualify, and I wouldn’t be surprised if a Kepler departure is the first domino to fall. However, Gallo will return from injury soon, at which point, even if Kepler is no longer around, the team will need to make a decision between Larnach and Wallner. Larnach has gotten the nod to date, seemingly out of seniority. Either way, it’s challenging to justify stowing MLB talent in AAA for an entire year. It goes deeper than the corner outfielders, though. Kenta Maeda will hopefully return from injury within the month, at which point a decision needs to be made about Louie Varland and perhaps Bailey Ober, who have both pitched like rotation mainstays in Maeda’s absence. Miranda has been heating up in St. Paul, and if the Twins still see him as part of the future, it’s reasonable to look for major league room for him. Julien has also been playing well but has only seen MLB action as a fill-in for Jorge Polanco. There are a plethora of live arms in St. Paul. There are fungible pieces on the MLB bench in Kyle Garlick, Solano, Farmer, and Castro, but Castro has been one of the top players on the team, and Solano and Farmer would need to be traded or released. The only bullpen arms that can be removed from the roster without being waived or traded are Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands. Now that we’re 40% of the way through the season, it’s coming time to make difficult decisions to put the best players on the field. Even with abundant caution taken for injury depth, changes can be made. However, the changes will soon require moves that cannot be taken back. This front office has long shown a propensity for not cutting ways with any value to protect themselves from the injury bug. Sitting on this level of depth for an entire season seems somewhat unreasonable, with so many players at AAA performing well. If injuries don’t force decisions on who will be playing in August and September, eventually, the team will have to make those decisions. Feel free to disregard this if injuries do dictate who plays, though. Let’s hope the decisions are difficult. View full article

I asked myself before writing this if it's too early, and it probably is. However, I've seen enough people lamenting his loss, and it's a topic I'm interested beyond this one isolated case, so I decided to put pen to paper with it.

I wonder about this often as well. On one hand, there's a lot of variability when you're one of the shuttle guys, and you don't get to establish routine or truly prove you've got it. On the other hand, guys on the shuttle are able to spend more time in AAA, where there's more time to work on development rather than performance.

It sucks, but sometimes that's the best we have

Yennier Cano, an afterthought in the trade that brought Jorge López to Minnesota, has been pitching like an All-Star in Baltimore. Why couldn’t the Twins unlock his stuff? Image courtesy of © Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports The first two months of 2023 may or may not be a fluke for Yennier Cano and Baltimore, but even if they are a fluke, he’s already produced far more than most would have expected over an entire year back when he was a Twin. He’s allowed three runs in 29 innings and carries a 0.59 WHIP. Losing guys like that is an unfortunate part of the game, and it hurts to watch your team’s castaways find success elsewhere. Look no further than other Orioles: Kyle Gibson, Tyler Wells, and Danny Coulombe, for more examples. The Twins have also been the beneficiaries of such processes playing out. Caleb Thielbar was out of baseball before getting a shot in 2020, and he’s been one of their top relievers for four years. Willi Castro, Brock Stewart, and José De León are each off to promising starts in 2023 after not securing MLB contracts this offseason. However, identifying and molding talent into MLB value isn’t an exact science. Let’s use Cano as an example and then tie in some notable other instances of this process in practice. The Yennier Cano Situation No one will, at any point, deny that Yennier Cano had stuff. However, he struggled with his control mightily, even in the minors. His stuff was good enough to succeed, even with an alarming walk rate. When he got his shot with the Twins as a 28-year-old rookie, he did not impress. He gave up 17 hits, 11 walks, and 14 runs in under 14 innings. It’s unfair to judge a pitcher off of 14 innings. Still, a performance like that put him squarely on the St. Paul shuttle with arms like Juan Minaya and Jharel Cotton—guys who would come up to eat meaningless relief innings before returning to AAA. Those shuttle guys weren’t nobodies. They all had fans within the organization who believed they were a tweak away from being a solid bullpen piece. Come the 2022 trade deadline, the Twins brought in three MLB players (Tyler Mahle, Jorge López, Michael Fulmer) and also traded for Sandy León, who was likely to make the big league team. 40-man roster cuts were coming. A handful of guys had to be waived to accommodate the newcomers. When Baltimore showed interest in one of the guys on the chopping block, it made all the sense in the world to include him in the trade. Upon arriving in Baltimore, he still wasn’t impressive, allowing nine runs in 4 1/3 innings. It seemed like a nothing burger. But then, 2023 happened. The primary reason for Cano’s newfound success has been adjusting his arm slot. With this change, the match between the release point and the movement on the pitches is immaculate, and he can better locate from that angle, too. The question that Twins fans likely ask, then, is why he never changed his arm slot with Minnesota. Surely a competent player development system could have done that, right? Player Development As stated earlier, player development isn’t an exact science. It’s pretty chaotic. In any organization, there are dozens of minor leaguers who can feasibly become MLB contributors. Even some who never reached AA at one point had the potential to play on the biggest stage. Sometimes players merely need to refine their skills on their ascent through the system. For others, it’s not so cut and dry. Most players who are talented enough to make AAA can have success in MLB. However, many of those guys don’t need more experience to reach that level; they need adjustments. For Cano, that adjustment was a change in his arm slot. Hindsight is 20-20. Now, we can sit here and say, “Obviously, he needed a change in his arm slot. Why didn’t the Twins try that?” First, they may have tried to change the arm slot but didn’t get it perfect. Second, in the moment, it’s challenging to identify what the issue is. Player development departments are faced with the nigh-on impossible task of correctly identifying each player’s mystery tweak that can vault them into being a major league contributor. Then there’s the challenge of actually implementing that tweak. There’s a good deal of guess-and-check in the process, and it can take weeks or months to determine whether each tweak is successful. Beyond that, there are finite resources in each system. There are only so many hours in a day and so many instructors or coaches at each level. Every player is equal, but some are more equal than others. As a 28-year-old minor league reliever, even with the potential everyone can see, a player like Cano won’t get as much instructional attention as teammates on prospect lists like Jordan Balazovic or Ronny Henriquez, rightly or wrongly. Not only are resources finite in terms of time but each coach or instructor only has so much expertise. Just like no one expects Luis Arraez to hit 40 home runs and maintain a .350 batting average, we can’t expect every coach to be proficient in identifying and implementing every possible tweak. Let’s look at two notorious examples of this in Twins history. Johan Santana We all know of Johan’s greatness, and most of us have heard of the tweak he made in AAA. Edmonton Trappers pitching coach Bobby Cuellar personally taught Johan the circle change that catapulted him to the top pitcher in baseball with the best changeup in baseball. In this case, the player-player development pairing worked as well as anyone could dream. However, we know that Cuellar never again had the same effect on a player. No other player was able to take this specific instruction, make the tweak, and become a legend for it. If it were simply the quality of the coach and instruction that determined the player’s success, the entire organization would have had unhittable changeups. David Ortiz We all also know of Ortiz’s greatness, and we will go to our graves filled with regret that he didn’t have that career in a Twins uniform. After signing with the Red Sox for $1,250,000 in 2003 following his release from Minnesota, he became a superstar. Surely the Twins could have kept him, and he would have been Big Papi in the Metrodome, right? It’s debatable. The version of Papi that became a Bostonian legend was not what the Twins envisioned for him. In his own words, the Twins wanted Ortiz to hit to the other field “like a little b****.” Did the Twins have someone on their staff who could work with Ortiz to hit like he preferred? It’s unlikely, as that hitting style was out of line with organizational philosophy. The hard truth is he probably would have never become all-caps DAVID ORTIZ in Twins pinstripes. Is all of this to say that the Twins should be excused for missing on Cano? Not necessarily. In a vacuum, it’s looking like an ugly miss (though there is plenty of season left for that to change). It’s incredibly frustrating to know he was one tweak from potentially being a bullpen fixture. In the grand scheme of things, though, there are players like Cano that enter and exit organizations constantly. A good organization is able to mold those guys into more Caleb Thielbars than Shaun Andersons, but it’s not an exact science. It takes skill, luck, and timing to identify the right changes and implement them, and it will never be one-size-fits-all. View full article

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: a Twins reliever slated for a late-inning role has underperformed, and some are saying that his underlying numbers mean he’s actually better than he appears. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Fans witnessing the struggles of Griffin Jax in 2023 might be fighting off memories of 2022 Emilio Pagán. Both pitchers have been disappointing, yet the analytics wonks still claim they’re good. However, when those wonks start talking about their underlying numbers, they’re really talking about separate concepts between the two pitchers. Jax’s numbers are far more encouraging than Pagán’s are or were. Without referencing a single number or statistic, I will walk through how “Trust the numbers” differs between the two. Instead, I will just talk baseball to contrast them for the skeptics out there. Let’s start with Pagán. Mostly, when people talk about Pagán’s underlying metrics, they’re talking about the quality of his pitches. He throws with good velocity, and his pitches have a lot of break. Because his pitches are somewhere between good and nasty, he can get a lot of swings and misses—in theory—and swings and misses mean strikeouts: the most surefire way of recording an out. Pagán’s issue, though, is that a few times a game, a pitch doesn’t break the way he wants it to, and it often results in home runs: the most surefire way of recording a run. He will also miss the plate more often than a late-inning reliever should. So, when Pagán’s underlying metrics are discussed and people have hope that there is a lights-out reliever hiding somewhere inside of him, what they’re counting on is for his ability to be harnessed. In a vacuum, he has the tools to be a great reliever based on his pitches. The issue for the team and the pitcher is channeling those pitches not to give up 400-foot homers or issue bases-loaded walks. Jax, on the other hand, has other stats highlighted. Sure, many talk about the quality of his pitches, especially his fastball and slider. However, the primary topic when discussing his stats this year are the quality of his batted balls. Pitchers who give up hard contact are likelier to struggle than pitchers who give up weak contact. Ask Greg Maddux next time you see him. You can still be a good pitcher giving up a lot of hard contact, but it’s much easier to record outs on slow rollers to second base than line drives hit over the second baseman. Much of the contact made off of Jax’s pitches this season has been soft. However, he’s still giving up a lot of runs. Now, he hasn’t been perfect, and he’s given up some hard-hit balls and walked too many opponents, so he can’t be absolved of all of his performance. Nonetheless, he’s been largely successful at preventing hard contact. For some reason, though, a lot of that soft contact is being converted into hits. The nerds and their spreadsheets would be led to believe that over the course of an entire season, those softly-hit balls would be converted into outs far more often than they have been to this point. Of course, the human element is also at play here, as seeing all of those runs being scored on his watch may discourage him, regardless of the expected result. Furthermore, he simply needs to strike more guys out and take luck and fielding out of the equation. Still, believers can hold on to the idea that, more often than not, he will come across outs on balls in play than he has so far this season. If he could strike more batters out, that would also be helpful, but that’s a discussion for another time. In both of these cases, analysts may claim that “his underlying numbers are better than his performance,” but the meaning differs based on which player is being discussed. For Pagán, it means “He throws great pitches, and if the coaches can mold him into leaving fewer balls over the middle of the plate, he can be good.” For Jax, though, it means “If he keeps doing what he’s doing right now, things should start breaking his way. Neither may actually be true in practice, but the numbers are dreaming big on Pagán. They’re reassuring for Jax. There, see, no numbers and no stats, just baseball. I even refrained from using the number 95 when describing Pagán’s fastball velocity because I keep my promises. View full article