Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

The Wise One

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,041

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by The Wise One

  1. The Wise One
    xPE said Cole Devries could be an ACE. I wonder what happened there? (said tongue in cheek) http://tenthinningstretch.blogspot.com/2013/01/assessing-starting-pitching-in-twins.html In regards to Berrios, just plug the numbers in the formula and you might be 66.666666666667% right.
  2. The Wise One
    Are you comparing him to starters or whatever your site lists as a 3b. There are 13 3b with qualified PA with a better WOBA. Ploufe is an average hitter. As a 2 WAR 3B that puts him in the average category. WAr is inprecise. What I said and stand by is the only way you get value is to trade him to a team with a horrible 3b. No team is going to give up a prospect to downgrade or get about the same player at a position. You won't get much of a prospect for a backup/utility player. That narrows the potential trade partners to maybe 10 teams
  3. The Wise One
    Correct free agents and modest free agent signings. I would love to know where the 50-50 stat of success rate came from.
  4. The Wise One
    Change GM's for the sake of change. Need new blood in the organization. That will change things. In the current baseball world that is a fallacy, especially for a small market team. 10 teams have changed GMs since the end of the 2010 season besides the Twins. In the immediate gratification department, 5 teams this season have a better winning percentage than when the GM took over, as does Ryan. Dan Duquette is viewed as a bright man, he has turned around franchises before. His team has made the playoffs but not advanced. Jerry DiPoto has a large market team. His team is better, and should make the playoffs this year. Jeff Luhnow took over a team that could not be much worse. Like Ryan, he couldn't help but get a little better. AJ Preller has been on the job about 2 weeks, His team has had a good couple of weeks. Then there is Antonetti. His team had a sniff in the playoffs. He came from within the organization. The GM before him was not fired, but promoted. Changing GMs is not a short term solution to a club being a championship level club. There is only one Dan Duquette. Everyone else seems to prove that.
  5. The Wise One
    Deduno is average as a strikeout pitcher and below average in era, fip ad xfip. No complete games. How does one use effective as a description of Deduno's pitching with a straight face?
  6. The Wise One
    Plouffe as an LF. When they tried him in right he did not particularly shine there, What would make him a LF? Not his current batting. WOBA comparisons to current LF says he is dreadful by comparison. Trade bait? League average 3b by WAR, below average by WOBA. What team is on the cusp of contention with a horrible 3b? So where is the gain in the Twins to have a different stopgap 3b which may be more difficult to find than a LF? It would sure be a nice idea to know why Souhan thinks it would make the Twins better with his proposal. Headley, a better 3b than Plouffe did not net the Padres much. Trade bait for a high upside low minor leaguer. Play a position that he has not played before and no indication of why Plouffe would be good there. Santana as a SS soon, Hicks as the MLB starting CF. September will be here. Souhan is losing it as a journalist.
  7. The Wise One
    Ryan worked for Carl. Ryan reported to Carl,. Ryan would have limitations imposed by Carl. One of the limitations Ryan had was that he had to work within the restraints of Pohlad and also what pleased Pohlad the most. What pleased Pohlad the most would define why to some he has a "lifetime" job.
  8. The Wise One
    In regards to playoff series wins, Beane ,O'Dowd, Melvin, Moore, Hunnington Jennings and the guy in Seattle with a long funny name have all held their jobs for 5 years or more with very little playoff success. You bring up the lack playoff success as a reason fire a GM. 7 owners other than Pohlad do not think that is a criteria for a mid market team to change the GM. It might be in some people's thinking, but not to the ones signing paychecks. Make your bosses a few hundred million, you have value. That is how you get a percieved lifetime job For what it is worth, I think the only reason Ryan came back is that when Pohlads were going to fire Smith they talked to Ryan. If they hired an outside the system GM, as there really wasn't anyone in house, Ryan might not have a consulting job. Ryan had to come back to the GM job to keep his lifetime job.
  9. The Wise One
    A 22 year old future Ace type for any Twins regular. LikeI said, Santa GM S what the A's gave to Chicago and Boston.
  10. The Wise One
    If the team is only 80 wins good the GM better keep working to see where he can find another 15 wins. Bullpen, LF, CF, 4OF, RF and number 1 starter all need better production. Althouh it has it's flaws, assume it is equally flawed for all teams for a minute and use WAR. The Twins will have 3 pitchers and maybe 5 position players with a WAR above 2. There are no 5's For the Twins to be even a .500 team Vargas, Suzui, Escobar, Plouffe, and Santana have to prove that 2013 was not a fluke. Mauer in the oposite direction has to prove that 2013 was a fluke. You are correct for starting pitcing that the only addition should be a toparm.
  11. The Wise One
    The only reason to trade Plouffe would be that you had an offer you couldn't refuse. You know the trade poposal that make you think the other GM is a little like Santa. If Sano is deemed near ready and a GM sees a player he needs for his team, Plouffe could fetch a high return. Ryan is not above fleecing a team in a trade.
  12. The Wise One
    Not every Cuban has been a good return on investment. It becomes a good investment if the money spent buys a very above average player. Arrubarrea signed for 5/25 as a shortstop but used a little bit as utility. Much like Escobar. Escept Escobar has played this whole season in the majors whil the other guy has only played in 12 mlb games. Escobar for the next few years would be much cheaper than Arrubarrea. To make it a return on your investment, Attubarrrea would have to perform at a higher level than escobar has. Plouffe came up the same year as Viciedio, which has had a better career? Which has cost less money? It is a good return on investment only if they are a wa above average player. Getting on board with advanced statistics as a way to win. Alderson worked with Beane on advance statisics theories. Where did that knowledge help the San Digo Padres during Alderson's tenure there? Statistics tell you what happened. Get enough different statistics you can paint a picture why. You aren't always able to project scoutng high schol and college player, nor 16 year old IFA. with statistics. That Ryan did not look for strikeout pitchers is an interesting claim. Did you forget Adam Johnson was a stikeout pitcher in college. Scott Tyler was a high strikeout guy. Perkins was a stikeout guy. I don't think shifts help much when you can't be certain your pitchers wo't leave the ball out over the plate to be hit the other way. Ironically shifting works better with control pitchers as you are pitching to contact.
  13. The Wise One
    When you have a top 5 player at a position, you can say it is set. When you are only above average at a position you still need t look to see how you can get better. There are more than enough poitions manned by players that could be replaced if the price was right. You may be correct on the line up, by no means should they not look to upgrade positions that they can.
  14. The Wise One
    I hear a schoolbus with a reving motor just waiting for Ryan to get back from Rochester.
  15. The Wise One
    The authors of these statistics gloss over the sampe sizes needed for reliability, and margin of eror. Once it is said into the blogshere, it is taken as gospel. BABIP is said to be random. I wish I could find the study that said BABIPnormalizes after about 1000 innings for a pitcher. That is also about the time when all of the predictos of what the ERA will be matches the era of the pitcher. Molina saves 50 runs a year yet the staff ERA is not the best despite the quaity of ptchers. They gloss over that there is little correlation on pitch framing and actual runs not being scored. Defensive metics I never looked at. It is a racket. Pubish articles, get people to your website, make moey. Scientific, PFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFT. Technology and baseball is a diferent story. The tools like trackman and pitch f/x provide real data
  16. The Wise One
    Do the Twin's batters need to face an Ace to do well?
  17. The Wise One
    2010 pitching staff had ERA+ of 112, 109. 91. 91 and 75 and still won 94 games
  18. The Wise One
    Coors Field has been very good to Cuddyer
  19. The Wise One
    In reality I don't think anyone here really knows how the Twins gather and use data. I don't think anyone knows how the Twins prepare for a game. There is a legitimate question with some of the players of the last few years if they can even use the information. I do think some here think that Gardenhire's game preperatiYou can't tell Deduno where to throw the fastball, and where not to.on is 2 cheeseburger,a beer and a talk to Provost.
  20. The Wise One
    The can star using the technology when it can be calibrated to each batters zone as every batter has a slightly different shape. The technology would also have to be able to sense if the ball moves over the plat from the side, drops in from the top. I do not think that technology currently exists
  21. The Wise One
    There are a few large contracts with one year remaining, Victorino, Upton, and Rios. Will Venable if San Diego thinks that 4 mill is a large contract. Minimal prospects might be all it would possibly take in return for taking on the contract. Something like Pryor, Gilmartin or Adams for example might be enough.
  22. The Wise One
    With Ethier there are about 74 million reasons and 4 yearsof why not to trade for him.It would be a bad deal long term
  23. The Wise One
    Way back when there was what you called reliability and margin of error. Baseball statisticians do not talk of the margin for error because that goes down with sample size. There is a number of AB and games played that there would be some validity to defensive metrics and hence WAR. I am sure for the OF it would take a larger number of games that say a shortstop. For longer careers there would be something closer to validity than there would be for half seasons. Understanding what the statistic measures is the first key. Knowing the reliability would be the second.
  24. The Wise One
    I was not aware that Drew would even sign a one year contract during spring training. Plenty of stuff was reported before spring training that Boras wanted a multi year deal with an opt out clause. Sure it would make sense to sign a Drew for a year and trade him to a contender. I doubt that Boras would have allowed his client to be put into that situation.
  25. The Wise One
    Gardenhire will go when Ryan determines he can no longer do the job. Considering the attrition of healthy bodies in the pitching rotation the last few seasons, I really doubt Gardenhire's September record recently means too much for a job evaluation.
×
×
  • Create New...