JD-TWINS

Along with 10 or so missed starts by Ryan & half a season from Paddack. Varland being 0-3 in his first starts of the year with an ERA toward infinity didn’t help much either. Three weeks in our 6th guy (SWR) became the 5th guy and eventually the 3rd guy in the rotation. Lee was hurt to start season - hurt again in middle of season. Farmer was apparently hurt until he got off IL around August 1. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s knee - Julien/Wallner forgetting how to hit over big stretches. Many of the infield injuries pulled Castro out of the OF and pushed Margot on the diamond about twice as often as he should have been. An awful lot of circumstances beyond “the bumbling Manager” that many want to blame. We all realize a bunch of guys are going to miss time with injuries every year but dealing with this list, and being 17 games over .500 on August 16, was probably not sustainable for most clubs.

Exactly, nearly every young pitcher in baseball, if they had better command - went deeper in games - gave up less HR’s, could be a very effective rotation guy. I like Festa. His early starts, giving up 3-5 runs in an inning were all part of the uncomfortable learning process. He may have a few big innings in ‘25 as well (see Bailey Ober) but that’s OK. His demeanor seems level and he’s confident - those are tough traits to teach. His lack of a true “off speed” pitch is a little bit of a concern. His change-up is around 91Mph & Slider around 92Mph……..if he could throw a handful of some variation grip on his change-up or maybe a curveball…….just occasionally, it could help him with setting his other pitches for more deception.

I do not think Vazquez salary can be moved. PEN potential: Varland - Alcala - Paddack - Sands - Jax - Duran Topa - Stewart……health? Blewett - rostered? - Henriquez Funderburk - Headrick - Moran - Winder Raya in September? To me, Paddack can’t throw high innings and stay healthy nor effective. Moving someone to free $$ & then pay a different reliever something approaching Paddack’s salary isn’t worthwhile, to me, since Paddack is a known quantity within the organization.

I get liking Vazquez over Jeffers behind the plate! Jeffers is such a head case at the plate that having some strong attachment to him because of his offensive upside is difficult…….he essentially had a poor 3.5 months at the plate in ‘24…..,this doesn’t excite me in any way and I understand why floating him to help improve elsewhere may make some sense. Camargo as an option seems unrealistic. It’s unfortunate, but he’s no better defender than Jeffers, with less experience handling a staff AND he’s not as good a hitter as Vazquez. Not really a good choice for ‘25 & maybe never a good choice. I do not think though, that another strong defensive catcher helps the staff much at all - calling a good game and throwing guys out or blocking balls in the dirt don’t necessarily go hand in hand. Jeffers getting it together (consistency) by maybe choking up all the time v. just with 2 strikes or some other detail with mental approach from new coaching voice/point of view would be nice. His defense getting better needs to come through effort! (practice smarter) I don’t see any change in the catching duo in ‘24. Radical thought, maybe impossible for both sides, how about extending Vazquez a year for a combined $14.5M? Get him to take $8M in ‘25 & $6.5M in ‘26? Completely crazy with his age - his bat? Is it worth the reduction of $2M in ‘25?

I don’t understand the overwhelming blame on coaching for the player’s inability to do what’s right at the plate. ……if a guy misses free throws in a basketball game it’s not “coaching” ……. if a QB throws the ball into the ground on an easy swing pass into the flat it’s not “coaching”. Baseball players are grown men, not high school kids or younger that need to be educated daily on how to advance a runner nor how to steal a base nor where to throw the ball from the outfield nor how to protect the plate with 2 strikes. There is NO coaching philosophy from any individual coach nor staff that’s promoting HR cuts with 2 strikes - just not real! Players have the mental ability to approach the game & play the game right, or they don’t. Coaching reminders, helping with physical keys, and certainly mental massaging from coaches is key & valuable but the players play, ultimately. The players had a terrible combined performance over the last 6 weeks of the season due to a bunch of circumstances, some we are aware of and some we probably don’t about……don’t think it’s because the coaches lost the Team or forgot/lost the ability to coach. Popkins got scooped up by Toronto - obviously, his reputation isn’t torched in the League………..If the Twins roster & everyday line-up were so poor or without promise, why would Borgschulte leave Baltimore to get on a sinking ship? TWINS really need a bat to help replace & add a bit to the numbers Santana had in ‘24. The other 12 spots will be filled with guys currently on the 40 man. Am hopeful that the new guy can get them & keep them focused with all the advantages of today’s technology and some subtle skills of his own. Fingers crossed!

Carew moved to 1B principally to make sure his knees held up not because he was poor defensively at 2B. Bottom line is Julien’s BA dropped 64 points and his OBP dropped 90 points from ‘23 to ‘24 & he had a pretty good April in ‘24, so after that he was just terrible! He needs help but even with that, not sure he can be counted on for any real contribution in ‘25. A developing depth piece but on the edge of the 40 man roster.

Combination of LF - 1B - DH works for me with Lewis……

I’ve been touting a sports psychologist for Julien since last June. He’s looked anxious, facially, since he first came up in ‘23……..a mix between anxious and arrogant. Odd for sure. Anyway, I don’t know how one goes from where he was over first 4 weeks of ‘24 to where he languished the next 5 months? Gotta be 95% between his ears. Hopefully, he can get help!! ………to me, any pressure on him above any MLB player is self imposed.

Duran (replacing Jansen) - some prospect arm below AAA - Miranda or Julien or Kirilloff, etc. to Boston for 1B Casas?…….,trade options are so vast that this is a bit silly but could be a nice deal……maybe?

I like a bunch of these points…..clearly, you’ve made up your mind on Kirilloff and I don’t blame you. In his defense, his most games played season of ‘23 he had 281 AB’s with a .348 OBP & a .270 BA with 116 OPS+ with 11 HR……to me, maybe worth considering. Team has to make a judgement on his character - that’s beyond my knowledge. April 1, 2025: 3B - Miranda ….. CC - SS …. Castro - 2B ….. Lewis 1B Lee at AAA to make sure he’s capable offensively……eventually at 3B. Maybe Julien can be a pleasant surprise but he was essentially written off on the MLB level by the end of the season…..wonder about his ability to turn it around. Am hoping Keaschall’s arm is OK by June and he can play 2B a bunch by July. Moving Vazquez, if trying to be competitive, can’t be an option with current depth from system in ‘25. Matthews-Morris-Lewis-Raya are starter depth options with the current 5 guys in the Rotation. Paddack - Sands - Varland - Alcala - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Jax - Duran - Funderburk - Headrick - Moran - Blewett is a group from which something positive could be realized. IMO, shedding Paddack’s salary is an option and trading Duran is an option………I don’t like either but could rationalize supporting one or the other. Jax as a starter doesn’t make sense to me - he’s too electric in the Pen in short stints. Maybe a young, athletic CF is a trade option and Buxton is the RH power hitting Platoon guy in LF? Also, he could be depth in CF……playing 80 games defensively and DHing 40 games? Larnach seems to deserve as much latitude as Wallner at this point…….have confidence in both over long stretches. Both seem to have better approaches as time went on in ‘24.

Thought: Castro - Duran (not signing K. Jansen) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B for Twins future…..crazy for Boston or of value? I may even add another young arm that’s behind AAA guys. Casas is 24 with power & .800 OPS in ‘24. ………….he’s a real 1B and has power to replace Santana. ………..frees up $6-7M toward another bat……..,,stated here because JAX is then our closer for future.

Not personal here - tired of hearing about the plight of Jorge Alcala! Prior to coming into a game to throw ONE INNING v. Texas Rangers on the verge of a sweep, he had a sub 2.00 ERA - he was, by everyone’s standards, being used properly in single inning stints. He was flourishing!! Then HE blew up and gave up 4 runs on 9 pitches v. Rangers……..he got the 2nd out of the inning & then gave up a fifth run on another homer. He didn’t pitch well - no other words need be said. Nobody else’s fault. He then looked mentally washed for the next 3-4 weeks and then got sent down to recover. Personally, I disagree with the author here in thinking Matthews has some spot in the rotation - potential depth guy at this point, to me. Paddack is either traded or, to me, more preferably in the Pen to make it more deep with the addition of Varland & Topa & possibly Stewart. Jax is the clear anchor of the Pen! I would prefer trading Duran prior to putting Jax in the rotation. I’d like them both in the Pen going forward. Jax not going max effort in short stints will diminish his effectiveness & risk his contributions to Team W’s! Lopez - Ryan - SWR - Ober - Festa ……backed by Morris - Lewis - Matthews - Raya at AAA is an adequate rotation group, to me.

No to FA options?? Other than Emma - maybe late in ‘25……,who in the organization has 30-35 HR potential in the OF? One guy with “potential” in the next 2 years doesn’t get me excited for April ‘25! Ohtani & Judge are physical freaks - enough said. Hitting the ball is a way bigger deal than stealing bases……,, Btw, Aaron Judge stole 3 bases in ‘23 & 10 bases in ‘24 - not exactly Rickey like!

Is it plausible that the Organization decides it’s more important, to help get them $1.5B or more for the franchise, to not have complete fan unrest and a lack of competitiveness within their Division? This is my hope once some minds with reason & common sense get in front of the Pohlads…….franchise broker types. Do they drop an extra $20M in ‘25 to go out with a flurry and some goodwill with the fan base……they could even get it back x 2 ($40M) in the sale - right? Seems $18M/yr for Tyler O’Neill makes some sense for a couple years (31 HR & 61 RBI in only 411 AB’s). Boston needs to focus on Pitching and may not push to re-sign him? He’ll be an attractive guy in the market. Hernandez had a great year for him, and he was already at $20M…..,,not realistic $$ spend, and he’s a BIG strikeout potential guy. In hindsight, Thomas from Washington - now under control in Cleveland, would have been optimal. Can Twins find a like guy to trade for?? Maybe there’s a trade to be made but those are awfully difficult to foresee/predict. There’s a big sea of players out there. Probably need to move a AAA pitcher with a Martin level guy to get a reasonable controllable OF guy. Paddack (would like him to stick for Pen depth & quality) could be a chip along with a younger arm from AAA? Could take the Detroit route and just play a bunch of young guys in our open spots and hope 2 of 4 or 5 guys work out ……. with a bunch of mediocre results in short-term? BIG move would be to trade Paddack to get rid of salary, along with Castro - after extending for ‘25 - no tender Kirilloff (sum of $15M) …………those are trade pieces for an OF bat or available $$ to sign a $15-$20M bat to play OF & DH some. There are plenty of young guys to pick for Castro’s defense - all but one of them would already be on the 13 man roster….. Lee - Keaschall - Miranda - Julien - Kiersey - Martin - Hellman …….etc. - Castro did end the year at only .717 OPS.

Chasing “speed” as the central tool isn’t the answer. If Management signed any of these 3 guys there would be absolute insurrection. Iglesias at 35? ……neither of the other two hit….at all. Not good options! Twins could really use another bat - cannot ignore (by promoting Helman - Kiersey - Martin) that losing Santana empties the offense of approximately 23HR & 75 RBI……the BAT is much more important than the speed aspect. Guys that couldn’t crack the ‘24 roster from AAA aren’t necessarily the answer going forward because of some sentimental desire that they succeed as Twins……nor because they are inexpensive. It should be a mix of solutions/options but a new FA bat with Pop needs to be part of the mix! To me, that’s the only near-term need for the Club to succeed.

I’m a proponent of Lee at 3B & Lewis at 1B. Problem is they still have no solid proof that Lee will hit enough after seeing ‘24……,& Julien doesn’t give a warm and fuzzy feeling on offense nor defense. My assumption is that unless Lee is tearing cover off the ball in Spring, he starts out at AAA. Julien is a long-shot at 2B w/o an offensive resurgence. Seems until Keaschall or someone can solve 2B issues, Castro will be the central figure there daily. Lee - Correa - Julien/Keaschall - Lewis has nice “potential” as a unit. Castro & Miranda for depth………guys gotta hit though or defensive alignment is moot.

I do think that Pitching is the potential strength they shouldn’t move off of in ‘25. Lewis - Morris - Matthews - Raya are all “potential” guys that will be getting more experience and polish in St Paul. ……Lopez - Festa - SWR - Ryan - Ober are a nice rotation to start the season, IMO. Paddack - Varland - Topa - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Sands - Duran are a potential strength for the Club in the Pen. …….there are another 5-6 guys with some MLB talent behind them…..Henriquez - Winder - Funderburk - Moran - Headrick - Blewett They have 7 for sure core guys (CC - Buck - Vazquez - Lewis - Castro - Larnach - Wallner), IMO & will fill out the 13 man every day roster with minimum $$ guys (Jeffers - Miranda - Martin - Lee & maybe Keirsey) NEED 1 free agent bat……..not a mid-level “RH corner OF” but somebody that can hit ……$15M plus type guy. Don’t see this type of offense available via trade. Santana lead team in RBI & HRs and posted at 1B whenever asked……,,there’s a void there that a Miranda type - Kirilloff type will have a hard time filling! I don’t have an individual or list but I’m sure the options will be front and center here soon.

Short term cuts that will cut into the viability of the Team’s competitiveness is not a carrot for a buyer. The Team has appreciated over 40 years and the payroll for ‘25 and the $$ to be paid out to players, whether it be $100M or $150M, has no bearing on what a buyer group would be willing to pay. Santana - Farmer - Kepler - Margot are all gone as free agents. Paddack may be dangled to evade his health risk, combined with $7.5M salary. Tough to get value back but maybe that’s not the goal. Vazquez has a contract that is impossible to trade without carrying a bunch of the $$ or adding other prospect value from the Twins …..for essentially zero return. Not happening. Buxton - Correa - Lopez are the attractive assets for a buyer wanting to take over with marketable star power. Companies buy assets and then strip the staff to make money in short-term. The Twins ownership doing a strip, months after they said they were selling, would be an obvious and desperate move that would only devalue the asset they are trying to sell

Exactly, shedding a guy like Lopez (big contributor) to “get the books to look better” is voodoo thinking. Any buyer or interested party in passing, knows what the Twins are spending on and what the results have been. The revenue streams are obvious - the assets - the perceived value of the assets may vary but moving the salary if one in the short-term isn’t changing the sale value of the club………trading Correa may reduce value or at least create that argument from a buyer’s perspective. Shedding salary isn’t going to help increase sale value of a held asset for 40 years. Not fooling anyone nor increasing interest if payroll is $115M v. $155M.

Not sure I understand Castro being MVP? Other TD (different writer apparently) had Castro as 7th in MVP listing. Anyway, Jax & Sands & Santana all have nerdy stats that actually showed up in numerous wins in ‘24. Castro definitely was a major contributor this season but his nerdy stat seems like a serious reach, IMO.

Vazquez

He finished 7th in TD’s MVP analysis. His OPS was .717……he was 3rd in WAR in ‘24 right behind the 2 superduds. I completely agree though that he should be signed with the current potential void at 2B and the tenuous anchors in CF & 3B. $6.25M is not a salary that’s excessive for a guy that can competently play 5 positions and help in a big way offensively a dozen times or more per year.

I can’t imagine that a $5M salary with bonus structure is a big help to payroll v. a probable $6.25M arbitration settlement…..certainly not enough $$ to lose flexibility & competence on the roster. I’d sign him and if somebody comes calling with a prospect of real interest - then maybe move him. I do have very little confidence in trading a middling roster guy for a prospect that may or may not develop into a middling roster guy.

To start, there is no way to trade the Vazquez contract. Him being moved would necessitate the Twins covering at least half of the $$ - no upside there. Unfortunate. I think you are right on the concern of relying on Stewart & Topa. One of them may work out……maybe portions of each over the year? Topa - Stewart - Funderburk - Moran - Winder - Headrick - Henriquez - Blewett ………these guys need to cover 2-3 spots in Pen. Jax - Sands - Varland - Paddack - Duran - Alcala are a very solid core!

I do not see the value in ridding $6.2M to lose a back-up/starter at 5 different positions. Castro isn’t some super hero and there are guys that can be rationalized as “able” to pick up his innings (spread over couple young guys) but they either lack in defense or offense by comparison. Again, he’s not fantastic by any means……..I just don’t see what he’s brining in trade value. We would get back some low level “prospect”. If he could be packaged with another 1 or 2 guys, maybe the return makes sense. Kiersey only bats LH - Martin only RH. Martin could use another 8-10Lbs of bulk/strength just to improve durability but that’s probably not in the cards. He is sub-par to Castro defensively. If Lee showed more promise at the plate moving Castro could make sense. If Keaschall is expected to be available in early months (arm) then it may make sense. If Correa’s feet problems are actually behind him it may make sense. Can Buxton play CF regularly 115 games)? Farmer will be gone and Julien is tenuous at the plate and on defense. Lewis is a coin flip for availability………..to me, Castro is inexpensive depth at 5 positions. Castro - Correa - Lewis - Buxton - Vazquez - Wallner - Larnach are the 7 guys I see as part of the roster w/o question……….that leaves 6 other spots to be filled ……….Miranda - Kirilloff - Jeffers are probable……that leaves 3 spots to be filled…….I expect 2 of these will be minimum $$ guys………who might be the one FA Bat??